Yields Soar; Stocks Collapse

I was in the bed late into the afternoon, trying to recover from some sort of cold. When I get sick, I’m pretty terrible and take a long time to recover. After I got up, I walked the fucking dogs in the cold rain and then Mrs Fly decided it’d be best to give them a bathe — so I helped with that too. I help people when they need it. That seems to be my detail in life, as I am going to help you now.

BE CONCERNED.

All of the bullish praise I’ve given the market can go out the window with a blink of an eye, a snap of the finger. The US 10yr is now +12bps. Normally, I’d just say “it’s over” load up on $TZA and $UVIX and tell you to get your last will and testament in order for succession purposes. But I am trying to appease the bulls here by giving the market a little time to correct these measures.

Surely the market cannot be serious about inflation making another foray into the economy, right?

As for me, I hadn’t done anything but cleave out my losers about an hour ago. Only now am I being proactive, buying a little of this and a little of that — specifically TZA and some longs above $200 in price. I’m down 37bps for the session, which isn’t too bad.

I might take some more extreme measures into the close, or not. I haven’t decided the level of risk I want to take yet — but know that I must do everything possible to avoid giving up too much.

When you strip away the tumult in the Russell, the markets have been rather sanguine in 2024. At exactly flat for 2024, we are still waiting for a sensational move in either direction to set the tone for 2024. If you’re already long EV, solar and other cool areas of the market, the tone has already been set for you — sharply lower.

Here are 10 stocks with market cap above $50b with very strong technicals — take what you will from it.

$WDAY, $COST, $ISRG, $META, $NOW, $VRTX, $CNI, $ARM, $SAP, $BLK

The list carries on to 238 names fitting my criteria inside Stocklabs.

Once again, I find myself wanting to hate the market but being forced to like it. Even though I traded through a sickened haze last week, I was alert enough to understand the natural tendency of the market was higher and that bias had not been stricken down.

Pax Americana was offered another blow for the second week of 2024. Markets traded flat but high beta “cool stocks” shed another 2.55%. It’s one of those odd tapes that you just need to be in to understand it wasn’t any good. I, on the other hand, managed perfectly and gains 2.4% for the week — closed with a leveraged long book of stocks greater than $200 in price, barreling headstrong into Monday.

In other news, the State of Texas has seized part of the border where all of the disgusting migrants are entering and the US govt is suing Texas to stop this. Texan national guard are armed and ordered to not permit the US border patrol access to the areas in question — mostly because the pension loving bootlickers are traitors to their country and have done immeasurable harm to the country.

Also, US blogger and outspoken voice against the thugs in Kiev and the NATO war against Russia, Gonzalo Lira was killed in a Ukrainian prison. He was there for 9 months and never granted communication with his family and zero US officials ever attempted to extradite him back into the country, whose only crime was speaking out against the war.

Some are glib about these things, make light of it, move onto next subjects and profess “what a time to be alive.” This is false. These are the dark ages. We are living in the very worst of times and the lack of seriousness in the west has led it astray, guided by malevolent forces. You have to understand what the end game is and it isn’t funny: your death.

This isn’t a movie and not fodder for a fucking debate. The American regime and most nations of the west are dictated and ruled over by people who hate the constitution of its people and seek to replace them with a more malleable person — devoid of religion and beholden to money.

Markets tends to trade separate from the news these days and I suppose it’s not all rot in a giant country with lots of places to hide amongst higher income elites. But I’ve made a living my entire adult life tracking trends and this is the most bearish set up one could ever imagine. Some might say “it’s all part of the plan” and I reject that. Has it ever dawned on you these people are mentally ill and incompetent? They live in a bubble and believe their own bullshit and do not care what or who they break. We have, seemingly, ZERO American institutions brave enough to reject their agenda and things are only getting worse, accelerating faster each and every day.

To be bullish in this environ requires you to be deranged and ignorant to the demographic woes looming ahead. Nevertheless, it’s important to remember all of these problems can be fixed if people in positions of power kept their dicks in their pants and did something for the nation instead of aggrandizing for themselves.

My cognitive abilities are close to zero, as I am, once again, inflicted by the COVID-19 virus. It’s not official, since I do not bother to test for it — but my body says “you’re fucked bro” and I want nothing but water and rest.

This morning in a COVID haze, I sold all of my aristocrat stocks before markets plunged lower. I netted a gain of +52bps and stepped aside into all cash. MY gains for the year are now +3.1%, and +2.4% of them have been achieved in this COVID dreaming circus world. I would not call it luck, per se, as my methods are memorized and I purposely bought very high priced stocks in an effort to not trade.

In other news, Mrs. Fly is quite pleased to see me sick. She doesn’t express it openly — but I spy a certain pep in her step, an increased verve as she prances about the house in perfect health. On occasion, she’ll make some comments at me, such as “you’re always getting sick” or “don’t touch anything” — to which I care not to partake in debate.

I’m up now and should be trading — but I do not feel like it. The market is bad and it’s not going to get better today. Maybe better luck next week.

I see the big spikes in nuclear energy, gold, and tanker stocks — basically world war 3 is back on the menu.

Many of you were tricked and fooled into losses of the largess varietal today — but not I. I did maybe 3 or 4 trades today to better perfect an already perfect allocation and slammed the fucking gavel on the market +24bps for the session.

Year to date, both the NASDAQ and S&P are flat, but he Russell is down 3.5%. Because of the large rally in the Russell from November till end of 2023, many of you reading this are now TRAPPED in retarded stocks — names like $CVNA, $UPST, and $AFRM — because you thought it was funny.

How funny is it now?

I’m +2.6% for 2024 in slow but methodical positioning, erring on the side of caution — aware and alert to all of the traps and ambushes that lie ahead.

Into tomorrow, I have an ALL LONG book leveraged to 113% of equity only in stocks greater than $200 in price. This is a novelty trade for me and I rather like the idea of it.

I did nothing and it paid off — because nothing be ramp higher since the afternoon began.

But it’s worth noting, had you gone into today with cool stocks, you’d still be down 2.3%, up from -3.5%. Whereas myself, I entered into today only with aristocratic stocks — high priced securities out of the claws of the plebeian class.

I am still 100% long and now +22bps for the session. Who knows what will happen till the close — but I am not selling these stocks. I rather like the idea of it — accumulating shares of very expensive shares. Not that it should matter, but something about price scares off the rabble of the third estate. They’d buy 200,000 shares of 50 cent stock heading to zero before buying a single share of a stock trading over $200. I’ve had these discussions with people for decades and have a keen understanding of how people think about these concerns.

As for the overall tape: a very wide chasm exists between small and large caps. I do not think it wise to buy into technically weak names over strong.

The Russell 2000 is swooning lower by 1.8% and I was rather proud of myself at the open for having a pastiche of “aristocratic stocks”, not bedeviled by the pangs of the market misery. I am still sick and sleeping most of the time so I didn’t sell anything, thinking “I’d just have to buy them back later.”

This of course was FALSE thinking, since I had been +80bps and now I’m down 45bps. Nothing hurts more than missed opportunity. It’s always smarter to sell at the open, especially in hard tapes. Just yesterday I was profoundly bullish, boasting about my 100% long position. I might have COVID, so I am excused for such pronouncements.

All of the really cool stocks are being BLUDGEONED to death, with my high beta index down a staggering 3.3%. You little fuckers thought you’d make it with a dead President at the wheel. You thought wrong.

I’ll make this brief since I am presently bedraggled by some mystery illness.

I closed +89bps and have a 101% long book, no hedges. My positions, however, aren’t of the degenerate nature, not risk averse. I do not own $CVNA, $UPST or $AFRM, nor do I own $MDLZ, $KHC or $SJM. Instead, I own the best stocks, hand crafted for my pleasure. I intend to be sick tonight and into tomorrow, succored only by the gains I will be enjoying by these stocks.

I see zero chance of markets cascading lower any time soon. Although the small caps are weak, we have obvious strength in tera caps and that trend is likely to continue.

Just like all of last year, save the last two months of the year, the degenerate small cap sector filled with scam stock is once again underperforming. I think it makes sense to never believe in the small caps again. What are you buying into with the small, at any rate? You are opting for financially weak companies whose business is constantly undermined and threatened by those bigger than them.

Feeling sick, I didn’t feel like scanning for stocks so I sorted for technicals inside Stockalabs for stocks over $200 per share. That’s all I did and I’m +102bps for the session. The short cut logic in this is to buy expensive stocks with strong technicals is to buy into the hegemony and those powerful companies seeking to uproot and destroy the small cap index.

Into the close, I don’t see why we can’t jimmy even higher. There doesn’t appear to be a reason for not rallying so we might as well do it and get it over with already.

I went to bed feeling sick last night, perhaps I got myself another round of the old COVID. This is what I get for not vaccinating myself or wearing a mask. If COVID, I am literally a walking time bomb against Grandma and her death will be on my conscience. When I get good and better, I’ll visit my local $WBA to inquire about their latest vaccines — perhaps get a two for oner — injecting my person with both the COVID shot and maybe I’ll throw in the flu one to boot.

I cleaned out of my stocks this morning — since I was feeling bad. I have gains of +65bps on the books, thanks in large part of my large brain and shorts against the fucking semiconductors. I have only 1 position now and sort of like the peace and tranquility of not having to deal with the god damned roller coaster for one day.

I haven’t been watching the market, so I offer nothing of great insight, other than to suggest commodities are dead and SAAS is alive. It’s all so tiresome.

Into the final hours I’ll pick myself up and buy some stocks for tomorrow. Hopefully I’ll pick some good ones again, because I much prefer making money when sick than losing it.