ANOTHER RECOURD HIGH

For the first time in weeks, I applied myself in trading. I didn’t trade from my phone or laptop and I didn’t study or read anything other than the screen. I completely ignored Mrs. Fly and her missives and looked into the screen and came out the other end +187bps. It’s very convenient that this happened. I might’ve tuned in and got bogged out — trading frenetically in a dour tape.

It felt like the olden days when my intuition was peaking and could not lose in a trade even if I tried. But it also made me think that I’ve lost something, and I only realized it after attaining it again. There is a certain and distinct fire that used to burn very hot and bright inside of me, younger Fly on Wall Street attempting to make it big on his own.

Having achieved success very young and gone through the crucibles of numerous hardships, as time worn on I moderated myself and even preached austerity. Gone are the days when risk was fucking on and in abundance. In recent years, I’ve accepted supreme gains of the mediocre varietal. What I mean by that is, +55% last year is a superb showing and I am very grateful for having achieved it. But it’s moderate in the big scheme of things, barely noteworthy and not the sort of performance you’d ever boast to anyone about. Sure, I once made 10x in an options scheme back in 2012 and I made 17x in my $ETH gambit a few years back — but it’s all isolated events with my money.

I used to do this professionally, bob and weave for the masses — your brokers broker — the guy whose desk was crowded for today’s picks. In a sense, via iBankCoin and to a limited degree on X — I am still him. But it’s not the same.

I closed 95% long with a strong bias for commodities, and a portfolio beta of 1.76, +15.5% year to date — never been higher.

I decided to “lock in” today, turn on the trading turret and really apply myself, as opposed to trading by phone whenever the urge persisted. As a result, so far, I am +71bps, in what could only be described as “superb” trading. I have core beliefs in day trading and much of it revolves around both price and volume movement. I will shill for Stocklabs, not only because it’s my company, but also because I built the tools necessary to trade and trade well inside of it.

The idea is to find stocks moving higher on a 1 min, 5 min, and 15 min scale, but doing so with volume. When lucky, you will identify a theme, a group of stocks moving in tandem, predictably, such as gold or bitcoin miners or AI stocks.

The simple fact of the matter is, a good trade doesn’t need the market to go up. A good trader makes more money on the way lower than up and a great trader is able to anticipate these moves in advance.

Into the final hours of trade, I am reticent to commit to being bullish or bearish but will tell you that I have zero shorts and I’m just scalping day trades here. The move higher in gold, however, is most impressive and given the danger of war with Iran — the oil trade is on the table.

The velocity of money is a real problem for anyone not living in the west. All of the worthless dollars we have sloshing around don’t afford much in America. If you head on over to Mexico or any other nation not in the west, average salary is still $500-750 per mo. The state of California just announced minimum wage of $20 p/h to take effect and Mexicans believe this is all the money in the world, until they try to live on such a wage. We have lots of money — but the value of the dollar doesn’t buy much here any more, unlike in Mexico.

It’s all part of the fractional banking system, which has taken the dollar and printed it infinitum in order to finance wars, bribes, and gambits. One of the gambits everyone here has benefitted from is the stock market. The true value of stocks is likely 80% lower. You’d find that out very quickly should the FOMC ever cease to exist and the velocity of money paused. There’d be a worldwide crisis, a shortage of dollars, and a subsequent deflationary vortex that would courrect prices to their rightful places.

I say this now, with stocks down 2% and commodities soaring. Both oil and gold represent hard work and effort and is assigned a value based on demand for them. People need oil to survive and people want gold because they fear what the end game is for the fractional banking system.

Luckily, or smartly, I’m allocated heavily into both and have gains of 6bps for the session, all but skipping out on the carnage so many of you are bedraggled in now. Rates are spiking and the price has of food, healthcare, college and anything else that cannot be outsourced is at record highs — because your dollars, as great as they are compared to other currencies, simply do not posses great buying power.

Best case scenario, the Fed is abolished and the Jimmy rigged system of Monopoly money ends, restoring true value to the dollar supported by assets. But you and I both know that is not going to happen and the only way to protect ourselves against the hidden inflation is to make more money, either at work or through investments.

I closed the session +26bps in highly astute, highly professional trading. I was in control from the morning and very rarely lost ground. It was one of those days bereft of any meaningful purpose and the sole job was to not blow out and up.

My focus into tomorrow is financials and materials with very little interest elsewhere. I gather we are in for some minor correction — all to do with spiking rates. I haven’t any hedges because I don’t think the sell off happens tomorrow. Nevertheless, a defensive portfolio is advisable.

Good afternoon —

Markets are soft with notable strength in gold/silver. The apprehension is of course in the bond market, where yields are flying again. The US 10yr is +13bps to 4.32%. Once again, we are barreling headlong into peak housing months with restrictive financing. How long can the US economy endure these yields before it CRACKS ASUNDER?

The presumption is forever. However, I suspect it’ll end when I get back into the business and am immediately entreated to broken elevator cable PIN ACTION with limited ways to hedge.

The bias you see today with rampaging higher commodity prices and soaring yields would suggest a renewal in inflation; but I believe the underlying issues are far more insidious.

At least in my head, I have big plans for April. I’m biased towards basic materials and really feel this is the breakout month. I’m also reticent to chase semis here, based on seasonal factors. And, lastly, BIG FAN of cryptos here. I made my monthly contribution to $SOL today. My basis is around $73.

The market is middling this morning but major breakouts in gold/silver and semis. The semis up the most seem to be the ones focused on AI. In between all of this bullishness is a maudlin tape with pathetic action in many a growth name.

Today is also new quant day. Once per month the quant account is re allocated based upon the Stocklabs algos, choosing the best stocks. The Quant formula is different from last year, with a more aggressive bent.

Into mid-afternoon I’m likely to remain long with heavy cash in trading, due to my reticence of chasing stuff unworthy.

On the side I do a little investment coaching and often run into the issue of diversification. For some reason, people tend to believe that if they have 20 tech stocks in a portfolio they are diversified. While not all tech cos are the same, this is a disaster waiting to happen in the event of a risk off scenario. Tech and healthcare always get hit most severely in sell offs, so if you’re structuring a portfolio for the long term — you need to make sure the allocations are balanced — but not too spread out otherwise you become an index fund.

Here is what I consider to be a diversified portfolio. Bear in mind picks change often — but the weightings are what’s important.

Basic Materials (15%)
$PBR (5%)
$SU (5%)
$PR (5%)
Consumer Goods (10%)
$RACE (3.3%)
$VRT (3.3%)
$CELH (3.3%)
Financials (10%)
$JPM (3.3%)
$MUFG (3.3%)
$UBS (3.3%)
Healthcare (10%)
$NVO (3.3%)
$DXCM (3.3%)
$ALNY (3.3%)
Industrial Goods (10%)
$BRK.B (3.3%)
$TDG (3.3%)
$HEI (3.3%)
Services (10%)
$BKNG (3.3%)
$LVS (3.3%)
$CP (3.3%)
Tech (20%)
$NVDA (5%)
$PDD (5%)
$NOW (5%)
$CRWD (5%)
Utiltiies (5%)
$NEE (2.5%)
$PAM (2.5%)

cash/special situations/trading (10%)

Now the picks can be adjusted quarterly or even monthly, however you decide. The important point to this is the structure. Admittedly, I do not always deploy this method for my accounts, since I am my own fiduciary and consider myself hyper-fixated/expert tier investor — who can make adjustments when needed. However, for 99% of you out there — you need this structure.

The 10% cash can be used for special situations, hedges, trades, or alt investments such as $BTC. With that 10%, gains should be reallocated back into the portfolio at adjustment intervals.

Clinical studies have shown that men who cancel Stocklabs are in fact homosexual. I could not believe the data myself — but it’s true.

I closed the quarter of 2024 +13% for trading,+11% in Quant and +10.4% in strategic. Up against the NASDAQ’s gain of +8.5% and the $IWM’s +4.7%, I am pleased with myself — but I do realize I could be doing better.

I haven’t really applied myself in 2024 and will try to do better in Q2. All in all, markets are playing out exactly as they should, with no real big surprises other than a rapid breakout in $BTC and $GLD.

Allocations should be even and full, leaning into growth.

My trading returns the last 12 month indicate an aversion to risk and this is mostly true. I have been trading defensively for a number of reasons — chiefly the tape isn’t inspired. We have seen tera caps go up and the smaller/funner names underperform pretty consistently.

That’s not to discount the interesting movement in AI related stocks, especially $NVDA. Nonetheless, I feel like there is a dark cloud looming just above us and at any moment it’ll strike us all dead.

If I stopped being scared and only allocated long and increased the sizes of my positions, I’d likely be up 27% like some of the criminals inside the Pelican Room. However, I am a professional of the first order and like to comport myself with honor and dignity at all times.

Have a blessed extended weekend. See you catamites on Monday.

It’s an interesting proposition. All of those days till Monday and people sloshing around with their money and nothing to do. Why not buy a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin? It’s easy to do and it goes up often.

I am long $BTC-$SOL and will keep those positions intact until I foresee a crescendo top — a waterfall of cantankerous propositions coming down on the proletariat to steal all of their coins. Unlike yours, my coins can never be stolen.

As for markets, I opened up down 60bps, so I closed the screen and didn’t bother to think about the market until after 11am and then found myself, much to my delight, +40bps. I have since sold everything, bought some $BITX and $SQQQ for the afternoon drift.

I have been trading defensively for weeks now, as I am risk averse and do not like to lose money. My gains are approaching 5% for the month, +14% for the year. My quant, which is allocated monthly, is +11% YTD and my best ideas long term strategy is +10.7%.

Sirs — I am a professional, never tricked or fooled, always on a prowl in search of meat — hunting till dusk by chasing about the weak.

More later.

The inverse of yesterday, naturally. We tanked into the bell yesterday and today enjoyed the mirror image. As such, I managed to scratch and claw myself back into the green — literally akin to pushing a handicapped wheelchair up a steep cliff — only to perhaps tomorrow speed downhill directly into an dynamite depot where I will explode.

I fished out one of the most depraved portfolios YTD, affixed with a beta of 2 now, slightly leveraged, long all sort of craven degenerate stocks. I will either rejoice and revel in my own ignorance tomorrow or pay a very severe price for my sins of wanton greed and lust for material earthly items.

In other news, I am busy studying to get licensed again — off to manage other people’s money again for both sport and pleasure. I have been out for 7 years and miss it — bedraggled with a feeling of being UNDERUTILIZED amidst a cadre of unsophisticated and dwellers. It might entirely be plausible that this blog ceases to exist within the year. Nothing is written in stone — but I am giving you all fair warning, as I have grown bored and want to embark on a new task.