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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Homo Tape

Bitch really isn’t a curse word right? I mean, it is used in pet shops and veterinarian offices throughout the world.

For example: “Dr. Dog Lover, please give that bitch over there some food.” Or, “yo, how much is that bitch in the window”?

Answer: “Two thousand dollars.”

Reply: “What, you must be crazy. I ain’t gonna pay 2g’s for that bitch.”

In other news, Russia is now the enemy. We should have attacked them when Patton had his tanks in Germany. You know it and I know it.

Now, we have to deal with Russian hegemony sacking wonderful cities in the middle of Gods trash dump. Which leads me to my next question: why in the world is Ukraine and Georgia up for NATO inclusion? That’s absurd.

That’s like Russia recruiting Puerto Rico to join the Warsaw Pact.

Truly, our nation is run by imbeciles.

Separate from “The Fly’s” stance on war and peace, the market is “homo-hammering” short sellers to death. It is taking them by the suspenders and punting them, mind you, past the end zone into the lodge section.

VeraSun Energy Corporation [[VSE]] raised capital today, via secondary. I want to be a buyer into this dilution, as a point in fact, viz.

Finally, Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] is a filthy whore from the south of Bronx. I do not like her and wish she was dead. But, I do like the fat rollers from Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. [[CMG]] .

NOTE: I believe Hansen Natural Corporation [[HANS]] takeover rumors are running rampant. I will hold onto my shares until tomorrow.

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Here We Go Again

Choppy markets are the death knell to sloppy investors. It is almost impossible to time this market, so why bother?

Obviously, my bias is strictly to the downside. However, I do have a variety of long positions, that I have outlined, to hedge against my shorts. I cannot stress this point enough.

With my money, I might buy more Barnes & Noble, Inc. [[BKS]] and KB Home [[KBH]] here. I like BKS, based upon fundamentals. And, I like KBH because it’s nonsensical.

In addition, I will be selling out my Hansen Natural Corporation [[HANS]] position. I bagged a quick 15%+. I’m out. With the proceeds, I will buy more Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. [[CMG]] . It’s a bit of a risk. However, should CMG get their act together and report good numbers next quarter, the stock will rip the heads off of short sellers’ necks and sprint to $100, easy.

Once again, tech is strong, led by Research In Motion Limited (USA) [[RIMM]] and Co. Also, Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] is smoking higher on a good quarterly number. Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) [[FMCN]] might be a trade off of it, or not.

Finally, I want you to understand something. The whole write-off business is going to crush New York’s fiscal budget, for years to come. 20% of New York’s revenue is derived from the banks. I got some news for you: because of the write offs, the banks will be able to operate tax free for years to come. Where will NY and NYC get their revenues from?

Answer: sue the banks.

Top picks: BKS , CMG , short Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] .

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With Regards to Blogging

“The Fly” is the Michael Phelps of this game, while the rest of you are just anonymous silver and bronze winners.

UPDATE: Pat Riley on the housing crisis.

[youtube:http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=2f2sfXQcgpQ 450 300]

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My IQ is Higher Than Yours

Don’t get all uppity with yourself. It’s not the behaviour of a gentleman to brag or boast about your wins. Respect your fellow man and help him see the light.

Aside from that, I had another grande day, with wins to the left and wins to the right. Most of my day was spent discussing current events and the state of the NY Mets baseball team.

As far as the market goes: You cannot stop Senor Tropicana; you can only hope to contain him.

Speaking of which, the ‘illegal Mexicans’ that I hire to do my landscaping broke a few garden lights. The next time I see them, I will throw garden gnomes, with pipe bombs attached, at them.

At the end of the day, I bought more [[SKF]] . Without a doubt, the market will be knifing to new lows by fall.

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Beware of False Tells

Oil coming down is not necessarily a great thing, considering it means growth is slowing. And, the decline in commodities will do little for Asian inflation. They have wage inflation issues.

Select strength in tech stocks, like salesforce.com, inc. [[CRM]] and Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] , is not a tell for general market behavior. They are isolated plays, just like Dell Inc. [[DELL]] was back in 1997-1998, during the Asian contagion/LTCM crsis.

On the other hand, just because the banks are weak today, does not mean they cannot sprint higher tomorrow. Expand your time horizon to more than 1 month and you will look at things differently.

Most energy stocks are absurdly undervalued, due to the overly pessimistic outlook for crude. Everyone should own at least one oil stock, representing anywhere between 5-12% of your portfolio. We are now at good risk/reward levels.

Personally, I like National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Ultra Petroleum Corp. [[UPL]] , Arena Resources, Inc. [[ARD]] and ConocoPhillips [[COP]] .

Markets don’t bottom or top; they capitulate. In my estimation, we have yet to capitulate.

In closing, beware of weak volume advances or declines. In my opinion, right now, you should be prepping the battlefield for a September war.

Position yourself accordingly.

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Stocks Worth Shorting Now

Instead of rear view mirror blogging, I will offer you leeches a list of stocks to bet against now.

Currently, my theme is to bet against ‘global growth,’ especially China, while keeping a perpetual short bias on the banks.

Here are a few names for your consideration:

MI , China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR) [[LFC]] , PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) [[PTR]] , Continental Airlines, Inc. [[CAL]] , Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] , [[FED]] , Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] , East West Bancorp, Inc. [[EWBC]] , Capital One Financial Corp. [[COF]] , Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] , Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. [[MLM]] , Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] , Texas Industries, Inc. [[TXI]] , Eagle Materials, Inc. [[EXP]] , Comerica Incorporated [[CMA]] and PacWest Bancorp [[PACW]] .

On the long side, I like BKS, Clean Energy Fuels Corp. [[CLNE]] , VeraSun Energy Corporation [[VSE]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] and The St. Joe Company [[JOE]]

Balanced pair trades include:

long USO/long UYG

long ROM/long SKF

long CHL/long FXP

long XOM/long DUG

short FXY/long DGP

long CHK/short UNG

long FCX/short GLD

UPDATE: Cramer just blamed the sell off in the banks on the SEC, for lifting the ban on shorting them. How absurd is that?

So, in other words, Cramer thinks bank stocks should go up indefinitely, regardless of the condition of the business?

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Bull vs. Bears

[youtube:http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=rWIR_rOvcZs&feature=related 450 300]

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My Condolences Go Out to You Bank Lovers

Come on now. You didn’t think “The Fly” was going to be wrong forever, did you? Long term readers of this site should know: “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he appears to be digging his own grave.

All of a sudden, my appetite to curse grows, as the Dow power dives lower, spearheaded by the morons in velvet suits (bank CEO’s wear velvet suits).

Let’s see what I have going on:

short Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] , short TCF Financial Corporation [[TCB]] , short Morgan Stanley [[MS]] , short Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , short [[FED]] , short Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] , short Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] , short Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]], short Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] and long [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] and [[FXP]] .

See pal, that’s who I am and you’re nothing.

Go ahead and keep playing with your straight edge. Be sure to keep your head deep in the sand. In the meantime, I’ll continue to bomb your flabby torso from 10,000 feet above, traveling at supersonic speeds.

In other news, some of my longs are following the convoy of hell lower, namely Wachovia Corporation [[WB]] and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. [[CMG]] . With CMG, my stop is one point lower. With regards to WB: I will sell it at $30 or $10.

In closing, I would like to thank all of the bullish bulls out there, for providing me with the jet fuel to bomb you, via crushing your erroneous long positions.

Remember boys and girls, we’re in a bear market—not a bull.

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