This market is easy to trade, providing you stick with the trends. It’s easy to fuck up when you over think a trade or a strategy.
For example: Oil at these levels defies logic. Yet, just giving into the fuckery has made oil longs very happy, over the past 6 months. The same goes with ag.
As you know, I was shorting ag related names, with great vigor, only to book a quick 25% loss on [[SMN]] and hold an unrealized loss in [[POT]]. Obviously, shorting ag was a dumb, pedestrian like move.
For the most part, being short financials/long commodities has worked, with God-like efficiency. Why should that trade reverse?
Until it does, I have no problem with pairing my bank shorts with oil/gas/ethanol longs.
The following financial stocks can’t get out of their own way:
KEY, ABK, RF, FED, WB, WFC, JPM, LEH, MER, MS, GS, FITB, STI, FHN, CORS, DSL, BPFH, CRBC, UMPQ, SUSQ, MTB, UCFC, IBCP, ADVNB, HBAN, MII, HBHC, SNV, WBS and HRH.
The following commodity related stocks can’t stop going up:
MOS, POT, CF, AG, TNH, SQM, SYT, MON, VMI, LNN, ANR, BEXP, SWN, UPL, DO, RIG, NOV, HERO, ESV, ATW, COP, SU, MCF, EOG, SD, BTU, ARD, BUCY and JOYG.
Feel free to add your own names.
Bottom line: Why try to outsmart the market, when it is giving you coin, on a golden platter?
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Fly
It’s your macro vision that I most appreciate (it’s what I lack), with the occasional micro plays thrown in to bring home a finer cut of bacon.
It’s true to your genuine efforts and truest spirit that you point out what went wrong and why — this is what makes this more than ‘Look how much money I make type blog’ etc.
But alas, regarding your allegiance to the Mets….
WM
OK Fly. You win. I lose. Phuck You.
I’m going to milk my cows now.
Fly, despite your above advice; is there a price where NYX becomes interesting to you?
Well said…couldn’t agree more.
“A Finer Cut of Bacon” was the title of one of our lesser-known hits.
Shorting POT is the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard.
By shorting POT you’re fighting against momentum hedge funds. And with so many sectors experiencing problems (retail, homebuilders, banks, brokers, etc.), you’re also fighting against at least three of the largest long only mutual funds on the planet who must stay invested (Janus, Fidelity and Cap Re are all POT filers). If those gigantic long only guys want to avoid the troubled sectors noted above, their options are limited. They are going to keep piling into the sectors with strong fundies/pricing power.
The fundies for POT are much better than for an oil company. Mineral lease rights, rig day rates and other production costs have risen in conjunction with the price of oil. Not so with potash. POT sells a product that’s gone from $200 per unit to $700 per unit in two years, with only a marginal increase in production costs, and they still have to ration the product due to excess demand. Management has already told people pricing could reach $1000 in short order.
They are going to print money for years.
There are only three reasons to sell POT.
1) You believe the pricing cycle has peaked, or will soon (horribly bad assumption given the supply constraints).
2) You believe governments around the world will intervene in the free market and establish price controls (this risk is rising in other countries, but the probability is close to 0% in North America, imo).
3) You hate money.
Shut up.
Juice:
No edge on NYX.
Sorry.
You may find this interesting.
http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?base=industry
Easy to find top performing and bottom performing stocks in top and bottom performing sectors respectively, or just the top overall.
You’re almost sounding like a technician. A certain (what you called lier) named Dan Zanger chooses top stocks from top sectors breaking out of bases, but he stays out of the market more often than most.
When he’s in, he’s on margin and leveraged with high focus in the top performing sectors.
He does have a lot of solid fundimental rules in place, but he relies almost completely on charts and reletive strength to identify stocks. His style requires cajones grandos, preferably made of brass