C You Later, part II

What to do?

On one hand, stocks appear to be cheap. On the other, the market is telling us Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] and [[M]] are going out of business. If that happened, no doubt, the regulators would suspend trading and keep this market closed, until everything got ironed out.

There’s a run on the banks right now and the gov’t has run out of bullets. If the credit agencies downgrade Citi, they are done. If they go under, how can the gov’t save them? They are too fucking big.

Let me tell you, if there is a such thing as The PPT, or some secret agency who manipulates stocks higher, those fuckers need to step in now—right here— and get long egregious amounts of S&P contracts.

We’re on that slippery slope right now. My conundrum is: do I add to my fledgling long positions now or wait until there is blood flooding out of the NYSE?

By the end of trading, I will reduce my hedges to just 5% short, and keep a little [[SDS]] and short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] . Furthermore, I will start to nibble, like a small rat inside a coffee can made from sweet corn, on [[ROM]] and [[UYM]] .

Look you, I can easily try to cherry pick an individual stock and try to get lucky and shit; but that’s stupid. Right now, we are convoy trading, up and down. The best way to make money in this tape is through the upside and downside etf’s, providing one has Godly market timing, such as myself.

Eventually, stock picking skills will be needed. We’re just not there yet.

UPDATE: I changed my mind. I’m not buying until we break 8k.

Shockingly enough,the market is down again, led by banks. The easy route is for me to get all bearish and shit again, calling for another “Grande Depression.” However, I believe in the Turkey Gods, as well as Santa Claus, and I will not buy [[SKF]] or [[SRS]] above $200—just on principal alone.

Our manufacturing base is insolvent. Big fucking deal. Can we have a Turkey rally already?

I’m telling you now, I got turkey on my brain. I’m obsessed with this shit. I find myself, while in top mental form, hanging pictures of turkeys on my office wall and writing the words “gobble-gobble” on my whiteboard.

At the end of the day, life is all about looking forward to Turkey Day rallies, isn’t it?

In all seriousness, look for a retest of 8k soon. I’m hedged by 20% and will take profits on the remainder of my shorts today, while praying to the Turkey Gods for a little lift in my longs.

Just to rehash:

I am long [[FXP]] , [[DUG]] , [[EEV]] , [[SDS]] , [[REW]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , [[UYM]] , [[M]] , [[ROM]] and short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] .

My plan is to start selling the rest of my inverses soon, but hold onto my Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] short forever, or until it hits $8. With the proceeds, I will leave it in the money market account and wait for a good time to step in on the long side. After I’m done, I will have close to 50% cash.

NOTE: I sold out all of my [[FXP]] , north of $82.

Sorry, I do not make these laws of reason up; I merely obey them.

The Turkey Gods of Thanksgiving have spoken:

“Let there be cranberries with our stock market rally. And, through the powers vested in us, may the stuffing get kicked from the bearshitters, with the full might and venom of 2,000 turkey legs.”

I suspect a one to two week rally is in the cards, then the market will fucking vomit on itself, like a run down ghetto K-mart. Just so you know, whenever I need to vomit in a public area, I pull over and run into a Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] store then vomit all over their merchandise. On the way out, I tip the Jamaican security guards one dollar for watching my car.

Good stuff.

Via PPT, Top 10 Hybrid Rank movers today:

Huron Consulting Group [[HURN]] Victory Acquisition Corp [[VRY]] Emergent BioSolutions Inc. [[EBS]] Valence Technology, Inc. [[VLNC]] Pharmasset, Inc. [[VRUS]] Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. [[CRZO]] Contango Oil & Gas Company [[MCF]] Cubic Corporation [[CUB]] STEC, Inc. [[STEC]] Unibanco – Uniao Bancos Brasile SA (ADR) [[UBB]]

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9hR-pPSOq0 450 300]

As you know, “The Fly” nailed the bottom and “gave” partial credit to a great man: Andy Swan.

Many of you idiots have no idea who he is or what he represents. That is not important, at this critical juncture of stock market bliss. What’s important is the reversal and how it affected my checking account. Quit honestly, I was a little worried over bitchy margin clerks and asinine Great Depressions, towards the end of the day. However, as you know through documented proof, “The Fly” fucking owns this market, as if it were made from hamburgers— and I am the hamburgerlar. Oh and A. Swan owns the market too.

Well done.

In closing, I am riding [[FXP]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , [[ROM]] and [[EEV]] higher, while losing a little bit in [[DUG]] , [[UYM]] and [[REW]] .

At the end of the day, miraculously, I closed +1.8%, reversing an intraday loss of more than 2%.

In other words, “The Fly” wins again, even when it appears he is losing badly.

My time machine lied. We’re supposed to be going up today. The infamous “Andy Swan bottom” is supposed to be alive, flowered with life and blossoming profits for asshat dip buyers. Instead, the bulls get the clerk.

The clerk loves to sell into panic, for the chances of an account going negative equity are far greater.

The selling began around 2:30 and will last until 3:15. If the bulls want to stay alive, they must support the market here and prevent a retest of 8k. Trust me, if we go anywhere near 8k again, we will knife through it like a hot blade through shit.

Personally, I’m getting nicked today, through idiotic intra-day short covers and inverse etf sales. And, let’s not forget, I bought some stuff earlier today.

The good news, for me, I have 30% cash and 20% short. Most of my short exposure is in [[FXP]] .

My feelings are, and I cannot shake them, we should rally.

I’ll say it again: we should rally. We should rally. We should rally, damn it.

The way I figure, the more I say “we should rally,” the better the chance it will come true.

Give it a try, fuck face.

TIME MACHINE UPDATE: Did I call this rally or what? I need a witness. Jake come forward!

Why do I even bother going long? You bulls are a bunch of headless horsemen.

I am shocked to see this rally unravel. If the Dow closes down today, look for a sharp decline tomorrow.

The fact that tech stocks cannot rally, in the face of robust guidance form Hewlett-Packard Company [[HPQ]], is retarded. There is so much pessimism, so much disdain for equities, it will take the hand of God himself to lift the spirits of money managers and force them to get long.

Some stocks are just getting blown out. It is so stupid, I have no desire to rehash. Let’s just say, the fucking homos from [[M]] are not prancing around today.

Basic resource stocks are in a death spiral to zero. Banks are asinine. And, the gov’t is stupid.

I give up. I’m on a buyers strike. I will reserve my cash to potentially average in, down below 8,000. Or, I might just dive back into some shorts.

Stay tuned.

NOTE: Thank God for [[FXP]]

“The Fly” is back to kicking old men down open sewer drains, while guzzling Monster Energy soda from his diamond encrusted chalice.

I want to play the long side here, with great vigor, howsoever with a certain amount of conservatism— if I may be so bold.

I am looking for a 500 point move up from here. My primary hedge will be [[FXP]] . But, already, I have greatly reduced my exposure to it.

There is no reason for the market to run higher; it just will, because I fucking said it will.

If you haven’t figured it out by now, “The Fly” is the market, navigating this bitch of a whore like a bicycle skipping over moon rock.

In the event I am wrong, I have a cash position of 30% to correct my errors.

Right now I am hermaphrodite trading, holding both longs and shorts. Into this weakness, I am taking off some inverses and I might cover my Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] short, in order to catch a quick upside move.

Basically, I am saddled with a bunch of long/shorts and need to time this fucker just right, in order to bank ridiculous coin.

Wish me luck!

UPDATE: I sold out of 50% of my [[DUG]] position, north of $38.25. And, I sold 75% of my [[EEV]] position, north of $95.

UPDATE II: Selling the [[FXP]] that I bought in the 60’s.

UPDATE III: Buying The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] @ $32ish and more National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] @ $24.90

UPDATE IV: I am buying [[UYM]] , sub $14. I am getting net long.

Final Update: I upped my cash position to 30%, while reducing my shorts to  20%. Simple math dictates I am now 50% long. My hedges include: short [[RIG]], short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] , [[FXP]] , [[DUG]] , [[SDS]] and [[REW]] .

My longside bets are on [[NOV]], [[ROM]] , [[UYM]] and [[MOS]].

I do not think we will run hard. However, I do get the sense the market needs to lift, in order to sucker in some more long term investors. All longs are rentals. My cash position will stay idle, waiting for an opportunity to buy back the inverses cheaper.

Rocky part V Update: I covered my [[RIG]] short, sub $70.

Instead of listening to rank and file tools on CNBC jibber jabber about their bullshit ETF launches, “The Fly” will throw some red meat on the table (raw), for you bull market lovers.

Setting aside my “death to equities” position, there are some stocks that have been outperforming in this tape. Typically, when a stock outperforms in a bad tape, it goes gang busters in a good one.

Via The PPT (coming soon), here are the top 10  ranked stocks (share price above $5), based solely on technicals:

[[CASY]] Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. [[QCOR]] Puget Energy, Inc. [[PSD]] Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc. [[OPTR]] American Science & Engineering, Inc. [[ASEI]] World Fuel Services Corporation [[INT]] Chattem Inc. [[CHTT]] California Water Service Group [[CWT]] Cephalon, Inc. [[CEPH]] Alaska Air Group, Inc. [[ALK]]

As far as momentum is concerned, here is a list of stocks with the biggest jump in Hybrid Rank (a combination of technicals and fundamentals) score, over the past week:

Goodrich Petroleum Corporation [[GDP]] Puget Energy, Inc. [[PSD]] Atmos Energy Corporation [[ATO]] TOP Ships Inc. [[TOPS]] Repros Therapeutics Inc. [[RPRX]] SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] Old Republic International Corporation [[ORI]] Imperial Sugar Company [[IPSU]] Fuqi International, Inc. [[FUQI]] [[ASCMA]]

In other newz, another Chinese stock, Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , is getting the panda kicked out of it today. China: the knife that keeps on twisting.

NOTE: long [[FXP]] , in size.