Today’s theme includes:
Buffett is an old jackass.
AIG is milking you.
And, finally, oil sucks cock.
Developing…
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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CY Cypress Semi tgt raised to $6.50 at Kaufman following meeting with CFO (5.56 )
Kaufman is raising their tgt to $6.50 from $5.50 after they hosted CY’s CFO Brad Buss for a day of investor meetings last Friday. They note mgmt’s tone was cautiously optimistic, as they believe certain CY growth opportunities can offset continued demand uncertainty and limited end-market visibility. They believe CY is seeing broader order patterns stabilize with channel inventory leveling off at lean levels following several months of depletion. They expect CY’s backlog levels to stabilize driving an improving book-to-bill. They believe CY’s gross margins can steadily recover from 1Q09 levels, and also believe the co has additional operating expense levers such as divestitures and additional manufacturing outsourcing. They expect CY fundamentals to outperform the broader semiconductor sector in 2009.
I bought FAZ on Friday – it will gap up10% this morning and probably work higher during the day.
FLY –
What do I need to do to have my blog listed on your Blogroll?? thx in advance.
This is happening because I covered on Friday, mere seconds before the plunge into the close. This kills me even more because I was betting on a plunge today, but didn’t like the action on Friday throughout the day. I got shaken out, and I’m an idiot.
I’m living up to my name.
Fly
When the market reverses in a week or 2 what is the best way to play it? Should I go all in FAS?
Alpha
I will add it.
Just know, blogrolls do not really help out for traffic. You should post in the Peanut Gallery. You can put your link at the end of every post if you like.
FAS?
ARe you fucking nuts?
One of the very last/final acts of a Crumbling Empire is the “Looting” of the Treasury.
Witnessed today before your very eyes.
The Rape and Pillage persist!!
When will the insanity stop. If AIG can’t pay their CDS obligations then so be it. Every trade involves risk. Why is the government continuing to support the bandits.
We need a fucking revolution. AIG is a fucking bottomless pit. 30 billion dollars more won’t do it.
It is beginning. CDS are starting to unravel. This is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. Shit is hitting the fan and I have no confidence in the idiots in Washington.
Fly
I follow prechter. Primary wave II should be getting underway in about 10 days. It’s going to be the biggest reversal we’ll ever witness in our lifetime. Of course the bottom is not the ultimate bottom.
Won’t everything go up as all the shorts cover and money pours in? FAS will move fast. Is there something that will move up faster?
Fly-
just sent you email.
NO MORE BUFFET
NO MORE GREENBERG
NO MORE GREENSPAN
Whats Brobama gonna do today while we drift? This drift is gonna escalate pretty quick. Right now we haven’t seen enough pain for the bottom.
I read an essay on the 1929 crash from the viewpoint of a janitor that was working that day. He made the point that the sounds he heard that day said it all…he said it sounded literally like Lions roaring. Will we hear that noise? Will we see the deaths…real blood in the streets? Theres your bottom.
CDS= $63 “T” Debacle.
Let’er rip!
Moe
Not suggesting it isn’t bad, however the loss AIG had was essentially a non-cash book loss which means CDOS have blown out as the government/ management is realizing mark to market.
IF the book isn’t concentrated you would expect a decent part of the book to run off without paying out cash because it would mean the firms they sold CDO’s against would have to go broke. It’s going to be bad but it’s not going to be that bad.
I can’t take all this intelligent chatter. By the way EL FLY you didn’t beat me last month so I know I am not a part of this blog. Trading isn’t beating people or being the best. It isn’t about being right about earnings etc. It is knowing how to have an edge so you can skim money from people that know everything without being in the driver seat. Stupid fucks that tie their minds up with shit they are not involved with. There is a lot more to government than ideas from free news. Do the word soap opera mean anything.
CKH is a screaming short as it breaks sopport.
http://alphalobotrading.blogspot.com/2009/03/seacor-ckh-failed-support-falla-el.html
Fly
I am going to be signing up for the PPT this week. I have this feeling that some folks are getting the impression that thats the only tool you use to make picks. Its certainly a great tool, but for me I know where I am going to go and think I will use the ppt as a confirmation tool. Does this make sense ? You obviously research than back up your picks with tools like the PPT ?
Prepare to receive the Obama punch to the cock today comrade. The first of the month is redistribution day fuck faces. Change is here, we are under 7000 and on our way to SnP 500. Feel the messiah!
I have been holding TWM for a while now and it has been a winner. Small Caps will feel more of the beating IMO
Now that is better lets talk stocks and shit. You know stuff we deal with!
Over the past few sessions XOM is finally getting the beating it deserves
Health care getting killed again. All hail the Messiah
CVX has a higher 52 week by almost 10.00 compared to XOM, yet today has a lower price by 7.00, high of 104.63 (CVX) vs. high of 96.12 (XOM)
today CVX @ 59.ish
today XOM @ 67.ish
to me CVX is the better all around play going up or down.
Senor Tropicana,
When do you reckon a wave of redemptions will come in like last year?
Thanks boss,
I am asking this, because I expect the winners or safe havens will have a selloff.
GE going to paint a 7
Ha Ha I hope they layoff some of the CNBC idiots
I say this based only on hope, but I think
TODAY is the DAY “THE MARKET” bottoms. at least for the next month or two anyway.
Once again there is no panic left in this market. There obviously isn’t going to be a panic based (biblical type selloff) because it already should have happened. So were getting the old slow grind and today will be 10 out of 11 days down in the SP. It’s been like getting your face dragged against the chain link fence till you give in. Basically we’re OVERSOLD and rally starts TODAY!
Don’t you feel it coming? You will when I kick you in the balls!
By the way APSG up over 20!!
The PPT to me has very good stock picks and is very professional. So fuck you very much FLY.
Fool-
Panic will come. VIX is picking up a little today. I don’t think there will be a meaningful rally until there is complete panic
Let’s see if we bounce off 700 for the S&P. My money is on a breakdown.
SRS, SRS Everyone say it loud and proud
Commercial RE is fucked
In and out of SMH 4 times so far.
In one more time.
Do it one more time so I can quit for the day.
you gotta love it…..Jim Cramers stupid ass’ portfolio is taking a dump……he’s recommened buying FWLT 20 times last year for the “long term” and “keep it in your portfolio, it’s going UP” of course this when it was 30.00-40.00 dollars, today it’s 14.00…..what a fucking asshat with his acting and carrying on telling people to buy his shit like their using monopoly play money……
I recommend JIM CRAMER as “ASSHAT OF THE MONTH”
Fly, please emphases and include Jim’s stupidity in your next “Fly video”
support levels appear broken, if something doesn’t happen quick, we could witness a huge collapse.
stocks are on red alert this week
APSG up 5%
SFLY going green
I just remembered something… When Bush was reelected he said he’d cut the budget in half by 2009….
ha! now obama took one right out of bush’s playbook.
Why is Gold not moving up today? If gold cannot gain in this crap i believe it is in serious trouble.
Cheers!
Change the name of the asshat of the month to the Cramer award.
Artist—Cramer for Asshat of the year 2009, in advance..so the bald goat fucker can proudly wear this badge of disgrace on his cartoon like retard show.
Gold is fucked, Rex. The only thing holding it up is devildog.
BS is short for balance sheet…
that’s funny
Gold trade is crowded. Too much money moved into it too fast and the media hype led to a crowded trade. As some of the bulls need money for margin calls they will have to unwind their gold positions that they flew to, to come up with the cash.
Gold may be good in the long term as this shit crumbles, but in the short term I think it is crowded and the short side is the way to go. using DZZ as a short term trade
SFLY green!
If you missed SWHC smarten up and buy SFLY
or miss it too, I really don’t care.
redemptions are going to be brutal…… money this next upcoming 2-4 weeks is coming out of the funds in droves….
we might enter a place in history to be remembered this month? black March? who knows, but I feel moms and pops will be at wits end with seeing their statements and say fuck it (in large numbers)
any opinions on this topic?
Anyone have any thoughts here on short BPO?
At some point equities will start to look attractive. What point is that for you guys on the SnP? 500? 400?
Fly,
In regard to CY, are you suggesting that we position CY (and maybe GLW and NTGR) for a play on a bounce?
I remember you talking about them last week and made notes…
Thanks Henry Fool,for all your picks(even i don’t pick up all of them).
Can someone please inform STC that Texas is fucked?
FDX hitting 52 week low.
CI – Cigna – I would take a long position at these levels for a swing trade. Stock on support level. Apply stops below 13.70
Artist- I think you are right. My in-laws have lost 40% with their current advisor. My mother in law called me last week asking me if I think they should pull the rest of their money out of the market and spread it around in different banks CD’s. I told her that I was still extremely bearish as I have been since 2007 and I think that the S&P goes to 550. If they would have taken my advice in 2007 they would be sitting pretty right now.
I think we could see the capitulation in the next month or so. The fix still needs to go higher. It is sitting at 50 right now which is high in historical terms, but during the cascade in October and November it shot to 80. If we see the VIX start to move up in a meaningful way, then I will start to think capitulation. There is still some out there that are holding hope that Obama has a magic wand and can fix it all. They can wish in one hand and shit in the other and see which one fills up first. Once all they realize that this thing has to washout in order to be fixed then we may see complete capitulation
gap+yap, it’s not a question of what number on the S+P, it’s a question of whether or not the credit markets can return.
Imagine paying for a 100k for a house if you couldn’t get a loan…
That’s the type of market we’re talking about. If anyone wanted to sell a house to someone who couldn’t get a loan, and if anyone could buy… prices have to come way lower, OR the credit markets can return to where they were, and then prices can go higher.
Easy credit of the 90s are gone. Some argue that we can’t be an economy dependent upon that, and that we need to crash to restore the world marketsin the long run, but the fact is, ever since we came off gold standard, we have become dependent upon greater and greater borrowing.
but the bigger picture is the derrivitive bubble that is big enough to swallow the worlds wealth 10 times over… things aren’t going to end well.
Plus you have to consider what we can actually produce. it was enough to just borrow further and further out into the future in the past, but that future is now, and we are having troubles continuing to push everything out farther(further?). Hey, if you believe the credit of the late 90s will return, stocks are attractive right now… but if you believe we’ll never be able to borrow again, then stocks should be worth less than 1/10th of the peak.
I think home owners should say to hell with the banks and start selling their houses to qualified people themselves, owner financing.
I would have no problem selling a house in this market, of course for a better price point, to someone who I scrutinised and financed it to them myself, and I hold the lean, and they make payments to me for 30 years…..
if this decline continues expect a government attack on the shorts like me. The witch hunt will begin. the government hates us shorts, because they don’t understand how the market works
I told you so, about six months ago.
A month later, I repeated myself
So far, the DOW is down about 2% and shiny metals, not so much.
I still like the Yen and shiny metals.
not that it really matters these days lol…
03/02/09 11:11 am ET … S&P LOWERS OPINION ON SHARES OF MGM MIRAGE TO SELL FROM HOLD (MGM 2.97**): On a more pessimistic ’09 view on Las Vegas, we lower our ’09 EPS estimate for MGM to $0.45 from $0.93. The company recently drew down remaining availability on its revolving credit, and we believe it could violate debt covenants. Also, MGM still needs to secure additional funds for CityCenter. While we think it continues to evaluate options to increase liquidity, particularly asset sales, we see a very limited number of potential buyers and low likelihood of ability to secure financing. We lower our target price to $2 from $15, on a discount to historical and peer EV/EBITDA. /E.Kwon-CFA
just reversed and went long 12 emini contracts, tight stop…
KRE etf (regional bank) has bee stuck on stupid for about one hour and doesn’t move if DJIA declines.
Tells me it’s a daytrade long IF market corrects up.
If overall market does not go up it will be back to a nap.
Maybe XLK too.
5 k MET here… stop under 17
Did JP MOrgan and Goldman cause the demise of AIG?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/business/28melt.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1
another 6 contract here, all long…
Fly-
Are you still holding DUG? If so, what is your exit strategy?
Obama tax calculator…
http://taxcut.barackobama.com/
I do believe that Obama has assembled a new PPT (Plunge Protection Team).
It’s still the PPT but this one stands for Piss (on) Phat Traders. He has his people shorting stocks and selling futures. This way capitalism and Wall Street will fall faster.
SAI holding up really well in here. What does PPT say?
this market is puke
TC – SPOT ON.
Back to playing handball against the curb.
One spot of good news, GE just hit new 52 week low……fingers crossed, they start handing out pink slips to CNBC hosts to the most useless first….
1)= Dennis Kneale
2)= Larry Krudlow
3)= Maria “dripping cunt” Bartiromo
4)= Jim Cramer
5)= etc.
6)= etc.
7)= and on and on….
“Should I go all in FAS?”
What a great idea.
How do I go all in on the Titanic?
WYNN getting truly hammered yet again.
i’m holding DUG. my exit strategy is to sell it when XOM is $25.
also FAZ is like an ATM. i never get in it, because of the rampant bank fuckery, but it goes up almost constantly.
$VIX is headed off to flirt with 52. wonder if it BTFOs or not.
T MOE sells a little more of SKF at 195 for a huge gain. Bought at 120
Derivatives specialists from J. P. Morgan, a leading bank that had many dealings with Mr. Cassano’s unit, came calling with a novel idea.
Morgan proposed the following: A.I.G. should try writing insurance on packages of debt known as “collateralized debt obligations.” C.D.O.’s. were pools of loans sliced into tranches and sold to investors based on the credit quality of the underlying securities.
The proposal meant that the London unit was essentially agreeing to provide insurance to financial institutions holding C.D.O.’s and other debts in case they defaulted — in much the same way some homeowners are required to buy mortgage insurance to protect lenders in case the borrowers cannot pay back their loans.
Under the terms of the insurance derivatives that the London unit underwrote, customers paid a premium to insure their debt for a period of time, usually four or five years, according to the company. Many European banks, for instance, paid A.I.G. to insure bonds that they held in their portfolios.
Because the underlying debt securities — mostly corporate issues and a smattering of mortgage securities — carried blue-chip ratings, A.I.G. Financial Products was happy to book income in exchange for providing insurance. After all, Mr. Cassano and his colleagues apparently assumed, they would never have to pay any claims.
# Thunderpup Says:
Shorted GS like a mofo at $92. Buying OTM SPY puts like a 5 handle is in the near future (by April).
February 27th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
DEVILDOG says:
Hey pup, take it from the BIG DOG as I don’t like to see pups get hurt. I’d cover that GS SHORT right now and wait until it hits the mid $120s in mid March. Good luck!
February 27th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
Covered GS at 86.5
Pup-
I’m not covering GS just yet. Shorted at 96 last month. i hate that fucker. It should head toward 70
short infy
Could we see ahuge bounce off of 700 for the S&P. only 8 more points to go
will we see capitulation today?
if there is a rebound, how many points we can rally from here?
any idea?
Fly, are you out of GLW and WNR? did you get out friday of those?
Steve Liesman is nothing more than a fucking mouth piece for the Fed.
T MOE sells a little SRS for another huge gain
6825 on the DOW…this is pathetic! Off 50% from last year and not at all closer to solutions as printing machines probably have their own labels on them! AIG, GM, Citigroup…