Got Tier One Capital?

There are lots of things scrambling through my big brain this morning, such as banks, reits, oils and Korea.

Despite numerous capital raises, most banks have insufficient tier one capital levels. Which means, of course, they will have to raise new money. I have a funny feeling the government will allow corporations repatriate earnings held abroad.

If you recall, they allowed U.S. corporations to do this, back in 2004-05. As a result, more than $300 bill came flooding back. Some estimates say there is more than $1 trillion in earnings being held in foreign banks abroad, mainly by IT and healthcare companies.

One company that has busloads of cash aboard and needs it badly is GE. With GE getting “homo hammered” on a daily basis here, do not be surprised to see “The Big O,” include repatriation incentives in his stimulus bill.

Korean banks are in dire straights. Look for excessive weakness in SHG and WF. Both companies are devoid of the ever elusive tier one capital.

Speaking of which: so are most of our reits. These assholes have billions upon billions in debt due and no—fucking—chance of refinancing it, at least cheaply. For example: SPG has more than $3 billion due in 2009-2010.

How in the world will they be able to deal with that? Perhaps a little government intervention?

Bottom line: I have a fucking list running down the hallway, littered with companies with negative cash per share/price ratios. Any company with more debt than cash is subject to unannounced bear raids.

Here are a few names, with tenuous balance sheet issues, worth noting:

AIV, SLG, RWT, MFW, PHH, WF, SHG, BLX, CMA, MAC, CYH, TK, PKY, ATLS, PPS, UDR, SSS, SPG and CHK.

Bottom line: Despite the prospect of a government sponsored “bad bank” (how ridiculous does that sound?) I still think the market is fucked. Naturally, beware of the short squeezes and all that other egregious stuff. However, at the end of the day, the core fundamentals shows no signs of improvement and, as a point in fact, look rather dreadful from my perspective.

NOTE: SHG is raising money today, at a 25% discount to market.

Asian Homo Hammer Wire.

Asian Homo Hammer Music:

Feel free to dance, as if you just won the super bowl, near your computer, while watching the “Asian Homo Hammer Wire.”

All of the negative news is sort of bewildering to me, partly because the restaurants I frequent are still packed and my neighbors are still dicks. I understand my small pocket of excess is not a good indicator for the country. I remember visiting that shithole called Pennsylvania, during the summer, and being stunned by its strapped look and feel. People are struggling like a motherfucker out there, living out their pathetic days with extreme modesty—old used cars, rusted BBQ grills and shit.

Here’s a fact: if it was not for government intervention, all of our banks would be gone. Poof!

If all of our banks were bankrupt, well then, our economy would be nonexistent. People would be eating each other in the streets of Manhattan, like wolves. If our economy was nonexistent, I do not believe the political system could retain power. No—fucking—way.

America is a different place, with different people, than back in the old Great Depression days. Back then, people were accustomed to grinding it out, through wars, starvation and staggering unemployment, without welfare. They knew what personal responsibility meant, since a good part of our population was made up of hungry immigrants. Today, the majority of our populace is made up of hamburger eating, teevee watching fat idiots.

If really, really tough times hit America, GD bad, the people would not stand for it. In my spoiled rotten neighborhood, instead of taking up arms like in the old days, these fuckers would bitch, whine, and sue until my local politicians were removed.

However, in poor cities(Detroit, D.C, etc), a different story would play out.

Those fuckers would burn down every building, minus the liquor stores.

Deep down, I keep thinking “somehow, we’ll make it out of this mess.” There have been many periods in American history when the economic system was tested or nearly disintegrated. However, this catastrophe seems to be more severe than all the others, including the Great Depression.

Back then, the country was in the midst of colossal technological advancement, from electricity to cars to airplanes. What do we have now, dumbass iPods or bullshit smart phones?

So where are we going with this bullshit? How can we allow the current structure to exist, post meltdown?

The corruption inside the government, interlinked with big business/foreign financiers, is so pervasive and blatant, I seriously doubt that things can ever be the same. These motherfuckers not only killed capitalism, they stifled America’s brand of business, worldwide. Who in their right mind will listen to our advice anymore? How can we tell the next up and coming nation to use our mold?

It is broken.

So now we have President Obama. He talks a big game; but thus far, he is just giving us more of the same. Which means one thing: they (our government) have no fucking idea how to arrest the decline. The answer to our problems cannot be buying the toxic assets from the banks, at a 200% premium no less. You have to be fucking kidding me. We are not talking 1 trill either. The real exposure is more than 3 trillion dollars.

Some of you conspiracy theorists out there think the government is doing this on purpose, in order to grab control of everything. I tend to think they are all incompetent, viagra popping drunkards, who have overplayed their hands and are about to be called out.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INAGMSARPYw 450 300]

UPDATE: “These people are idiots.”

UPDATE II: Going for the trifecta with this one.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoyaJZi9kPY&feature=channel_page 450 300]

His last minutes of the trading day, caught on tape.

As for the market:

Gold has become a safe haven and the TBT trade continues to look good. Personally, instead of buying today’s dip, I opted to err on the side that Obama has no fucking idea what he is doing, with regards to a “bad bank plan,” via small FAZ, ERY buys.

Also, I stopped out of my TS position. I kept MT, FXI, CHL and BUCY, just in case we rally Monday. However, for the most part, I go into this weekend, decidedly negative on the markets.

Quick update on 2009’s “Four Reverse Horseman of Certain Death”-

ESS, MAC, FRT and SLG look terrible. And, don’t forget the 5th reverse horseman, KIM. That bitch is getting the stuffing kicked out of her.

I sold out of my entire TS position, just south of $20.

I bought 3,000 FAZ, just south of $52. And, I bought 3,000 ERY, just south of 36.20.

Mr. Cobblehead was feeling quite jubilant about his TNA position. After all, the market was racing back, with great vigor, based upon cocaine dreams and a cheeseburger diet.

He was leveraged to the hilt, fully margined out, when suddenly, and much to his chagrin, Charlie “meatball” Gasparino appeared on his CNBC box with some “breaking news.”

Mr. Cobblehead watched Charlie talk shit about the alleged “bad bank” plan, while shaking like a leaf in the wind—high as a kite—dumb as a bag of doorknobs.

Suddenly, the coffee mug that was tightly gripped in his hand, which was brimming with hot French Roast liquids, violently unglued from his hand and sent flying into the “CNBC box.”

He roared: “FUCK YOOOOOOOOO ASSHOLE.”

As he rummaged through papers and pens, he looked up at his monitor and his bountiful “Tits-N-Ass” position was in the process of decoupling him from his money.

A few hours passed and his position was still a tenuous one. However, he still had confidence that a “late day rally” would occur. Nervously, he sat down, in his bullshit chair from Staples, to watch the final hour of trade.

To be continued…

Thanks to more rumor milling at CNBC, the market is going down again. Actually, as I write this, it is nosediving.

The volatility in SRS is nuts, going from down 70 cents to up $3, in a matter of minutes. Frankly, I have no idea where the market will end up today. Hence, I have both longs and shorts.

However, one this is reliable: Chinese Fuckery.

With the market down nearly 2%, Chinese stocks should not be up, but they are. As you know, aside from a little selling yesterday (25% of my position), FXI is a rather large position of mine.

For me, best case scenario, the market swims in blood, all the while FXI, resiliently, trades up. Also, at the same time, oil, commercial RE knife lower.

Thus far, everything is going according to plan. I am getting dinged on some “global growth plays,” namely TS, MT and BUCY. But, I anticipated weakness in those names, in a bad tape.

At the moment, both CHL and FXI are up, due to Chinese fuckery. Finally I get to profit from such egregious rice throwing activities.

NOTE: With regards to the “bad bank” idea: there is no fucking way Obama is going to pay a 100% premium for toxic assets. Listening to his rhetoric, he sounds more apt to zero out shareholder equity, before bailing out those banking gangsters. We shall see.

After a healthy dose of cocaine biscuits, Mr. Cobblehead bought lots of stock. He logged onto his bullshit E-Trade account and purchased inordinate amounts of TNA. While doing so, he exclaimed, loudly, “Tits-N-Ass baby, Tits-N-Ass.”

His stupid friends called him up and warned him that the market looked weak. They called him on his blackberry too, warning him of pending doom, with regards to his bullshit 5 figure E-Trade account.

He ignored such warnings with a highly caffeinated “fuck yoooooooooooo,” as he purchased more “Tits-N-Ass,” ripping out offers.

As the market climbed, his buy orders got bigger. With one hand, he was helping himself to a healthy serving of cocaine biscuits, with the other, unfortunately or fortunately, “Tits-N-Ass.”

Mr. Cobblehead’s heart began to race, as the market dropped. The news was extraordinarily “good,” with regards to Q4 GDP. After all, the economy had only slowed by a mere 3.8%. Some of Mr. Cobblehead’s friends said it would mountain cliff dive by 5%.

With this in mind, he bought more on margin, leveraging his account to the maximum allowable amount, effectively putting all of his chips into one stock, “Tits-N-Ass.”

Too be continued…