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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

CRE-mated

Boy did I get SRS wrong. Here I am, like a fucking jackass, betting against CRE, while the Fed is giving money away. The short squeeze taking place in commercial real estate is on an epic level. Now I know the longs are wrong and will be proven so in the long term. However, as of right now, it’s like watching a knife twist inside my eyeball.

To comfort myself, in erroneous fashion, I bought some WRI. I fucking hate WRI; so therefore it must be a terrific buy.

My other shorts in FAZ and FXP suck, but nothing like in CRE.

My longs are all headed in the right direction— thank the space invaders for that. But, I am fucking irate to the point of my head popping off, with this fucking bastard SRS eating dirt on a daily basis. On a very personal level, I should have sold it at $60 on Monday. Noooooo. I had to get greedy and hold on—for “one more day.”

To make matters worse, the losers at the SEC will vote next Wednesday to reinstate the uptick rule. By then, no doubt, my little SRS will be like $5 and I will blogging from the discomfort of my local mental health institution.

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End Game

You will know Bernanke and Co. are successful when oil is trading at $400 per barrel and it costs you $500 to fill up your tank. You will know Obama’s financial planning programs are successful when an apple costs $50 and you need to put your name on the waiting list for a bag of rice.

I am not a big believer in inflation yet, mainly because it is my belief lack of employment and assets gone wild will offset any and all inflationary measures taken by the Fed. However, if and when the economy does turn, your dollar will be worth less than grocery store jewelry.

As for this tape: tech is leading the way, big time. I like the story behind STAR, who make mobile core routers, providing bandwidth for smartphones—think blackberry, think Apple. The downside: by far VZ is their biggest client and 90% of their business derives from just 5 clients. However, they are trying to nail down Asian and European deals. If successful, the stock will double. As of now, they have 80% market share of the CDMA market, an awfully good bullet point for prospective European/Asian telecoms.

Also, across the board, chips are on fire. There, I like ISIL, EZCH, TQNT and AMKR. Within networkers, I like CIEN and TLAB. Finally, I bought some GU on a breakout and a little DE, just for the fuck of it all.

At the present, I am left with 15% cash, 40% long, 45% short.

UPDATE
: I bought more SRS @ $41.80.

UPDATE II
: I bought 10,000 WRI @ $10.60

UPDATE III: I bought more SRS @ $40.50.

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Fly Buys: GU, DE

I bought 10,000 GU @ $2.10. And, I bought 2,000 DE @ $36.75

Disclaimer: If you buy GU because of this post, Obama will ask you to step down from your position. And, you may lose money.

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Fade the Jubilation

I am eliminating my fucking cash position, since it is not the behavior of a distinguished gentleman to have large pools of cash, just lying around doing nothing.

My dilemma: it’s stupid to go “all in” after the fact. If I conducted myself in such a manner, to hell and with bollocks, I’d run out of savings inside of 3 months time.

Instead, I’ve decided on a hybrid model, which is: bet against the Cramer circle jerkers, via long FXP/SRS/FAZ, while at the same time long some pretty gnarly (garbagio) tech stocks, just in case the “Cramer clan” decided it’s 1999 again.

As an aside, the action in KIM, following a 70 million share offering, is impressive. However, with regards to REITS, I’m afraid if you are not long KIM, MAC or SLG today, you’re getting punched in the throat.

As for the banks:euro trash banks are still running. I can offer zero reasons to buy the insolvent AIB, yet here we are and the stock is up 25%. In addition, RBS, LYG, BCS and UBS are green. For the most part, U.S. bank bulls have had their fill and are running for the cold part of the volcano, away from the hot hot magma.

Finally, I like my chances here, whatever the fuck it is that I think I am doing. I haven’t quite figured out exactly what my agenda is just yet. Just know, whatever it is, I shall win. After I am finished winning, I shall win again.

The process just keeps on repeating itself. I swear, no lies.

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Fly Buys: ISIL, TQNT, EZCH, FXP, FAZ, SRS, CIEN, ERX, STAR

I am putting a shitload of money to work.

I bought ISIL @ $12.61, TQNT @ $3.00, EZCH @ $13.10, CIEN @ $8.68, STAR @ $14.77, ERX @ $27.65, FXP @ $22.55, FAZ @ $18.05 and SRS @ $46.80.

I am creating “Le Arte.”

UPDATE: I am buying FAZ/SRS/FXP into this weakness.

UPDATE II: Not feeling “earl” here. Sold out of ERX @ $27.60

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Godly Numbers and News

I am absolutely livid over the prospects of boom times. It is, as the great Greek philosophers of 20,000 years ago used to say, “right around the corner.”

Get this, the United States of America ONLY lost 663,000 jobs last month. And, previous month job losses was revised upwards to the tune of ONLY 80,000+, putting total losses around 740k.

Are you kidding me? This is fantastic news. Just last night, I was talking to my neighbor “Steve” about politics and worldwide famine, over a flaming barrel of garbage, he said, and I quote: “we’re gonna lose like 2 million jobs this month.”

Based upon Steve’s expectations, these numbers are great; do coke and buy stocks, w00t, w00t!

In other good news, North Korea is scheduled to launch some kickass missile that can obliterate Hawaii.

w00t, w00t!

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Biggest Winners, YTD

An oddball of a list. (Excludes dishonourable stocks.)

Courtesy of PPT.

PRSC 384.14%
GOE 341.58%
ANDS 326.11%
DFT 262.32%
SMRT 201.77%
PALM 201.3%
APAC 194.21%
FIG 194%
SIRI 191.67%
QUIK 190.48%
END 180%
MIPS 178.38%
BGP 162.5%
SWHC 158.01%
IVN 149.48%
TGB 147.37%
WZEN 143.9%
S 142.62%
SOLR 141.49%
RNIN 139.02%
LNET 132.86%
RT 131.41%
ENTR 118%
ISLE 117.19%
CVTX 116.29%
MCGC 115.49%
JAVA 115.18%
MF 113.24%
ENOC 113.04%
QTM 111.11%
RFMD 110.26%
IOC 107.13%
DK 106.08%
YRCW 104.88%
PMII 104.59%
NG 104.08%
WFMI 100%
VVTV 100%
RGR 98.91%
DIOD 96.53%
SIRF 96.02%
NURO 95.4%
UBET 94.12%
VGZ 93.75%
TREE 92.31%
STEC 90.85%
AVNX 89.52%
NWY 88.79%
KIRK 88.68%
NAK 87.5%

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Going in

All in all, not a good day for Senor Tropicana. Early purchases of FAZ proved to be nonsensical, as stocks kept the majority of their gains into the close.

Nonetheless, I decided to start putting some serious money to work.

Over the last hour of trading, I bought blocks of CIEN, ISIL, ERX, TLAB, TQNT and a little more of my illiquid fav EZCH.

Then, as things started to weaken, I averaged in on more FAZ and SRS. I don’t have my numbers down yet, but I’m guessing I have 40% cash, 40% long and 20% short.

Rome was not destroyed by barbarians overnight, nor will the market destroy me, until I am old and stupid.

It’s worth mentioning, the amount of fuckery taking place in the 3x etf’s is so severe, I am without words. They are fantastic trading vehicles, but grinders of capital to the 10th degree. The whole market to market scandal is a scam. Allowing the banks to make believe they are not mortally wounded is like a soldier hiding a bullet wound to the chest. At the end of the day, both will die.

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RED ALERT THAT IS NOT RED: BANK REVERSAL!

Banks are selling off here, led by NTRS, JPM, CMA, MS, BK and CFR.

I am feeling mighty fine (southern accent) about my FAZ positions, right about now.

As for my tech holdings:

I sold out of NiHD for a 2k 5k (who’s counting?) win and SPiL for a 10% victory. I am long TLAB, CIEN, EZCH, ISIL, TLT and ERX.

NOTE: The Senate just passed a bill that requires the Fed to reveal who they are lending money to. Holy Shit that is bad news for banks!

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