We’re gonna have a fucking party! Get your crack pipes and 40 ounces of Colt 45 ready, for we are celebrating THE REVIVAL OF EQUITIES or DEATH TO ALL EQUITIES. Either way, we’re having a party.
I was just discussing the economy and how it pertains to equity prices with a “worldly,” scholarly friend of mine, by way of digital telephone device. He is of the belief that “all is lost,” and the economy shall go down the sewer pipe, eventually conquered by angry Mongol’s who want their money back.
In a very honorable manner, I pointed him towards some “green shoots,” in the semiconductor sector and how the Government cheese makers were intent on inflating everything, including the stupid prices of bank stocks. As you could imagine, he rejected such evidence as mere “scams.”
I furthered my agenda: “We are in a process of liquefying the balance sheets of loser banks and loser CRE companies, as evidenced by recent secondary offerings.”
After that, the conversation devolved into some sort of caveman shouting match, whereby both parties threatened to exact physical harm to one another.
My point: I am open minded to some sort of magical recovery, although it seems like a stretch. Granted, unemployment is out of control and municipal budgets are laughable to anyone with a brain and a calculator. On top of that, I find it hard to believe the market will close higher for 2009, following an epic disaster in credit.
Nonetheless, my game plan, from late 2008, was to get long the second half of 2009. I thought the first half of ’09 would be horrific, which in turn would lead to an epic rally in the second. Perhaps I got my halves mixed up?
Only time will tell.
Bottom line: If you believe the economy is on the mend, it is your duty, as an asshole dip buyer, to allocate funds today. Across the board, stocks are down 10-15%. Either this is the beginning of the bear party, or the music equipment overheated for the bulls.
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