Seasonality Requests

Mon Feb 15, 2010 4:09pm EST 13

Netflix, Inc. [[NFLX]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	8.216%	5	3	86	75	0	-0.01
February	4.984%	4	4	69	73	1	0.26
March	8.390%	6	1	73	78	2	0.04
April	-1.647%	4	3	72	70	3	-0.12
May	3.765%	2	5	70	77	0	-0.01
June	1.010%	4	4	90	80	0	-0.29
July	-5.266%	4	4	87	83	0	-0.08
August	0.887%	3	5	83	89	4	-0.21
September	5.496%	7	1	77	87	0	0.03
October	8.910%	5	3	83	94	1	0.27
November	3.316%	5	3	76	85	1	-0.18
December	5.907%	5	3	89	81	0	0.17

Amazon.com, Inc. [[AMZN]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	1.983%	5	8	140	122	0	-0.04
February	-3.969%	6	7	136	95	6	-0.52
March	7.002%	9	3	133	128	2	0.04
April	11.366%	8	4	124	122	2	0.55
May	2.105%	7	5	118	134	1	-0.3
June	7.541%	7	6	134	137	5	0.55
July	1.589%	7	6	145	125	5	0.07
August	2.371%	7	6	141	140	3	0
September	12.064%	10	3	133	128	1	-0.16
October	4.348%	7	6	137	151	1	0.42
November	10.545%	9	4	123	140	1	-0.03
December	3.365%	5	8	139	133	3	-0.09

ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	-7.944%	4	5	93	83	6	0.03
February	-3.288%	3	6	79	80	2	-0.08
March	21.842%	5	4	89	105	1	0.37
April	3.624%	5	4	89	93	5	-0.17
May	9.739%	5	4	79	110	2	-0.25
June	4.262%	4	5	86	99	6	-0.01
July	-1.317%	3	6	101	87	2	-0.14
August	4.831%	4	5	97	98	4	-0.18
September	4.339%	4	5	90	82	7	-0.4
October	0.797%	4	5	90	104	7	-0.05
November	-5.743%	4	5	105	77	1	0.02
December	1.855%	5	4	87	101	2	-0.33

Applied Materials, Inc. [[AMAT]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	9.048%	16	10	202	245	93	0.03
February	6.240%	15	10	203	222	63	0.44
March	1.728%	13	12	230	233	82	-0.14
April	5.071%	15	9	211	215	91	0.43
May	4.454%	13	11	225	227	77	-0.37
June	-2.245%	9	16	237	219	78	0.19
July	3.436%	13	12	218	233	79	0.04
August	0.299%	12	12	237	222	93	0.09
September	-5.113%	9	16	233	201	73	-0.23
October	-1.712%	9	17	240	242	96	-0.33
November	3.275%	16	9	211	229	90	-0.11
December	3.807%	14	11	226	224	99	0.21

Chesapeake Energy Corporation [[CHK]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	-0.581%	7	10	172	151	24	-0.01
February	3.708%	11	6	125	160	28	-0.24
March	12.267%	14	3	152	180	38	-0.71
April	7.451%	11	6	140	177	31	-0.49
May	6.616%	9	8	160	166	33	0.26
June	3.414%	6	9	168	167	26	-0.37
July	-4.544%	6	11	177	151	27	-0.08
August	5.359%	10	7	176	172	25	0.06
September	5.662%	10	7	155	169	19	-0.23
October	0.752%	8	9	168	183	25	0.08
November	0.082%	8	9	161	167	18	-0.04
December	1.085%	9	8	171	161	28	0.1

Lennox International Inc. [[LII]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	2.730%	5	6	108	110	5	-0.95
February	6.195%	9	2	86	109	6	-0.76
March	0.388%	6	4	104	110	4	-0.1
April	1.288%	5	5	109	93	4	0.46
May	2.761%	4	6	107	103	3	-0.13
June	2.714%	5	5	107	95	11	-0.57
July	4.385%	5	5	100	106	5	1.05
August	0.387%	7	4	126	109	9	-0.26
September	-8.497%	2	9	121	94	5	0.27
October	-3.362%	4	7	119	118	7	-0.42
November	4.654%	8	3	101	116	8	0.09
December	4.397%	7	4	96	130	6	0.22

Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. [[BECN]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	5.659%	5	1	58	61	1	0.12
February	-2.392%	3	3	54	50	1	0.12
March	8.575%	4	1	49	59	1	0.1
April	2.994%	3	2	47	55	1	-0.05
May	5.841%	4	1	52	51	3	-0.05
June	-4.181%	1	4	57	48	3	-0.26
July	2.358%	2	3	53	51	1	0.04
August	5.142%	4	1	58	52	1	-0.03
September	-2.139%	2	3	54	46	2	0.13
October	-10.668%	0	5	59	51	1	0.14
November	-0.463%	3	3	63	56	4	-0.01
December	3.079%	4	2	59	64	4	-0.03

Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	5.874%	3	2	50	50	0	0.54
February	-5.363%	2	3	50	36	0	0.28
March	-14.359%	1	3	45	41	1	0.21
April	28.309%	4	0	31	48	3	-0.39
May	-0.150%	2	2	44	40	1	-0.81
June	1.265%	2	2	45	39	2	-0.58
July	1.888%	1	3	45	37	3	0.68
August	7.112%	2	3	52	57	2	1.08
September	0.926%	3	2	51	49	2	0.43
October	-3.796%	3	2	53	52	6	0.92
November	-17.462%	1	4	58	43	1	0.09
December	2.690%	3	2	49	53	3	0.16

Microvision, Inc. [[MVIS]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	0.037%	7	7	151	123	10	-0.18
February	6.203%	6	7	130	115	13	-0.27
March	-0.647%	7	6	131	139	13	-0.13
April	4.534%	7	6	137	124	9	0.48
May	9.015%	10	3	122	144	8	-0.02
June	-0.092%	4	9	143	124	11	-0.03
July	-4.520%	6	7	148	116	12	0.03
August	2.288%	6	7	145	125	16	-0.02
September	0.273%	5	9	136	129	17	-0.09
October	-0.367%	6	7	152	139	21	-0.08
November	3.051%	8	6	145	124	15	-0.5
December	8.013%	7	7	151	131	15	-0.08

Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	-2.024%	2	5	77	63	0	0.29
February	15.688%	7	0	54	68	2	0.16
March	4.913%	4	2	69	63	0	-0.08
April	-5.464%	3	3	71	51	2	0.16
May	5.619%	3	3	61	62	3	0.88
June	0.539%	3	3	69	58	2	-0.31
July	-3.409%	3	3	61	61	4	0.1
August	-9.690%	1	5	73	57	3	0.23
September	12.314%	4	2	62	59	2	0
October	-5.727%	2	5	76	72	7	-0.59
November	8.857%	5	2	57	84	1	-0.82
December	14.807%	4	3	67	78	4	0.84

Comments »

Sneak Peek into PPT 2.0

Sun Feb 14, 2010 6:05pm EST 48

The Overbought/Oversold indicator (OB/OS) will try to identify stocks that are bottoming or topping out, based upon a sublime harmony in mathematical precision (S.H.I.M.P) aka The PPT. Here are the most recent readings, courtesy of the generous and gregarious folks at iBC:

OVERBOUGHT (HYBRID):

count: 112
CDCS
HWK
BPAX
RNN
NENG
SLTM
RMTR
TCBK
ZIXI
XXIA
WIBC
WEN
VR
VIVO
UVV
UTI
USNA
UNFI
UAUA
TXN
TRST
TINY
THS
TDS
SWHC
SLE
SIGI
SHOO
SHFL
RPM
RIMM
RBCAA
PPG
POWI
PNY
PNFP
PM
PHM
PGR
PGNX
PEET
OPLK
ONNN
OMCL
OIIM
NYB
NVDA
NTCT
NSIT
NLS
NJR
NETL
NDN
MYL
MTH
MPWR
MOT
MKTX
MKC
MHO
MFE
MCRL
MCHP
MAT
LUB
LEN
LCC
KLIC
KEP
KCP
JCG
ISRG
ISIL
INDB
IKAN
IHS
ID
HSIC
HRC
HEK
GSIC
GROW
GFF
GCOM
G
EZCH
ERIE
EQR
EDE
EAT
DEO
DCOM
CRUS
CRI
CRDN
CPLA
CMI
CCMP
CCI
CAVM
CAKE
BTI
BRCM
BRC
BLL
AVT
ATR
ASH
ASCMA
ARW
AMR
ACTL

OVERBOUGHT (TECH):

count: 105
PMT
NATH
HWK
BPAX
RNN
TCBK
XBI
ITB
XXIA
WTW
WIBC
WEN
VPHM
UVV
TRV
TRMB
TNH
TG
TDS
STXS
STNR
SSI
SLH
SIGI
SAFT
ROLL
RNOW
RIMM
REGN
RDWR
RBC
Q
PTIE
PM
PIM
PHM
PGR
PGNX
PCTI
OSBC
OMCL
OIIM
NYB
NVO
NVDA
NSL
NPO
NEWP
NETL
MWIV
MWA
MTH
MKTX
MHO
MCRS
MCRL
MAR
LUV
LQDT
LLL
LH
LFL
LEN
LCC
KSWS
KSU
KEP
KCP
JOE
ISYS
ISIL
INDB
IN
IKAN
HVT
HSIC
HRC
HME
HEK
GWR
GSIC
GFF
GCOM
GAIN
G
ERIE
CRDN
COO
COLM
CMI
CITP
CIK
CCMP
CCI
CAVM
BTI
BRC
BNS
BLL
BHE
BEBE
ATR
ARG
AMR
AFG

OVERSOLD (HYBRID):

count: 11
THLD
TSP
STD
RMIX
QXM
PT
NOK
MT
HCN
DRE

OVERSOLD (TECH):

count: 9
PXF
IDV
ADRD
DWM
VGK
VEA
IEV
HYG
EFA

And, we are building a seasonality engine, that will be scaled in so many ways your heads will explode from joy.

Here is a sample for Joy Global Inc. [[JOYG]]

Month	Avg Return	Years Up	Years Down	Days Up	Days Down	Days Unchanged	Variance
January	0.618%	2	7	84	94	4	-0.32
February	-0.750%	4	5	80	75	7	0.49
March	6.810%	5	3	81	92	0	-0.48
April	8.135%	5	3	73	89	5	0
May	7.668%	6	2	74	93	2	-0.03
June	2.161%	5	3	82	86	2	-0.22
July	-3.775%	3	6	92	92	7	-0.42
August	3.989%	6	3	99	96	4	-0.17
September	-5.281%	4	5	83	90	6	0.66
October	3.415%	6	3	86	105	10	0.44
November	6.174%	6	3	79	102	2	0.52
December	7.464%	6	3	91	97	2	-0.3

For now, I will be posting some of this data, daily, in The PPT blog section. More updates to come.

Comments »

Still Betting Against Me?

Fri Feb 12, 2010 4:03pm EST 60

You might want to reconsider that line of thinking.

Top pick: Jarden Corporation [[JAH]]

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDUPLUS7ujk 616 500]

Comments »

Fly Buy: JAH

Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:37pm EST 12

I bought 10,000 Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] , just north of $30.

Disclaimer: If you buy JAH because of this post, your only daughter will marry a bearshitter. And, you may lose money.

Comments »

The Action is Good

Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:12pm EST 37

Forget about the Dow for a minute. I am seeing leadership stocks melting up. In tech, Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] , Research In Motion Limited (USA) [[RIMM]] , NVIDIA Corporation [[NVDA]] , Ciena Corporation [[CIEN]] , amongst others, are robust. Within commodities, from Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] to United States Steel Corporation [[X]] , they are strong.

The point here is this: do not be scared off by the hat fuckers on CNBC. This maniac market is one buy program away from a full reversal, which will rout the bears in burlap in the most heinous fashion.

The only stock on my buy list is Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] , due to my small cash position (less than 6%). However, if I had more funds to invest, I’d buy Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] and Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , as if they were water and my fucking hair was aflame.

I have a few errands to run for the remainder of the day. So, be well and try not to step in any murderholes. They’re killers.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLrrBs8JBQo 616 500]

Comments »

REVERSAL!!

Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:21pm EST 24

Enough of this selling. Let’s buy stocks, then salsa dance on the graves of our enemies. Let’s go do something exotic, while sipping on pina coladas.

Look, “The Fly” is into blenders, baby formula and fucking condoms, via Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] . Earnings are due to be released next week (Tuesday) and I am not scared, mainly because I am not a pussy.

At any rate, today’s sell off is retarded and should be reversed by coked out traders, literally any minute now.

New Long Idea

Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:18am EST 61

They make blenders, baby formula and fucking condoms.

Swishy, Swashy, Swishy, Swashy

Thu Feb 11, 2010 3:58pm EST 42

What a beautiful day.

I reduced my position in Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] by another 25%, leaving me with half a position. I will sell the remainder above $60. Also, I added to and initiated positions in a number of names, like [[CBD]] , Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. [[BRCD]] , [[TAN]] and Visa Inc. [[V]] .

The bears have been routed. Now it’s time to raze the conquered cities and loot it for all of its worth aka “rape and pillage.”

Disclosure: Long, with great vigor, into the bell. “The Fly” wins again.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eV2lN68pSIc 616 500]

Comments »

Buying Frenzy

Thu Feb 11, 2010 2:45pm EST 7

I can’t hold onto new money any longer. People are anxious.

I bought Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) [[PBR]] , [[CBD]] , Visa Inc. [[V]] (new position), GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) [[GSK]] (new position), Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. [[BRCD]] (new position) and [[TAN]] , with reckless abandon.

BOOM-SHACKA-LACKA!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH9AScgq0qM 616 500]

Comments »

Craving Beans

Thu Feb 11, 2010 1:14pm EST 27

I’ve been “bean free” for exactly 4 days now and it is driving me crazy. I ceased all intake of caffeine, mainly because I felt a little wired. Typically, without exaggeration, I’d guzzle down 5 cups of coffee, with a few red bulls in between, just to break up the monotony. Plus anyway, I am not a slave to anything, not even a state of the art, beautifully crafted single server Keurig machine. In no way do I “crave beans,” despite what that stupid title says. Never pay attention to my titles, for they are written by small midgets, who hide in attics and are generally out to get me.

Anyway, I have not eaten out in 2 months, due to my desire to forgo food that is rubbed on the kitchen floor, prior to being grilled. Since I’ve been exclusively eating home cooking, I’ve lost a quick 10 pounds. Don’t get it twisted; I was never portly to begin with. However, let’s just say, I am a bit leaner now, thanks to avoiding the shit that is shoveled onto restaurant dinner plates.

With regards to this market, I am positioned heavy in the commodities, such as Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]] , United States Steel Corporation [[X]] , Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) [[PBR]] , ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] , SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] and a small piece of Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] . My intentions are to reduce these positions, as the market recovers, then reposition into beaten down tech names. In addition, I am using The PPT‘s proprietary OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD indicators (still in beta mode) to buy distressed equities, like [[TAN]] . As of this morning, the indicators were flagging GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) [[GSK]] and [[DZK]] —amongst others— as OVERSOLD, fuckfaces.

Do not hate on “The Fly” because he is better than you. God made me this way. Perhaps you are an awesome polisher of shoes or designer of dog clothing. When it comes to this stock game, “The Fly” cannot be matched, especially by you internet crab-fuckers.

Comments »