I want you to know, I am deeply troubled by the developments in Europe. The bailout of Greece, like Bear Sterns, may be the warning shot that brings the whole house of cards down. To think, as part of the IMF bailout, Portugal, Ireland and Spain will be forced to lend money. That is a joke.
Although Greece is a thorn in Europe’s side, Spain represents almost 10% of GDP—no laughing matter. CDO spreads are already suggesting fuckery is in the making. You know how this is going to play out, don’t you? The vultures will not stop until they eat flesh and drink blood, as was the case with Bear Sterns.
As you know, I was very cautious on the markets, busy doing the Hugh Hendry and trying to protect my longs with egregious [[VXX]] purchases. What I saw and still see coming down the pipe is an Exodus from the euro, which will funnel cash into dollars and treasuries. Like a domino effect, at some point, the dollar will fall too. But, for now, all eyes are on Europe, as the struggle with monetary cohesiveness intensifies. After all, what’s good for the Germans is not necessarily good for Spain, and vice versa.
Very recently, I reallocated money to the long side, only because I felt my assets were better fit in the jungle of stocks than [[TLT]] . Since my re-entry into stocks, I have not reduced my [[VXX]] position. As a matter of fact, I have averaged down on it. Most of my new purchases are related to the oil spill crisis and Goldman. Aside from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , my latest picks are nothing more than trades. With 25% cash and another 11% in [[VXX]] , I am positioned very defensively.
In summary, I believe the whole world will be doing “The Hugh Hendry” in no time at all. The question is: am I better off navigating the market, dealing with the daily ebbs and flows, rather than pussifying my book in [[TLT]] ? I believe the answer is, without a doubt: absolutely.
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