Long and Stupid; Short and Dumb

If you’ve been shorting stocks for the past 3 years, more or less, you are an incredibly dumb person. Having said that, I’ve been heavily long since last week and I am dumb for it. Naturally, name calling is juvenile and simply a way to amuse oneself, at the cost of others. In the big scheme of things, we are all emphatic about our belief systems, through nature or nurture. Many of you are adamant about being short. As much as I fuck with you for spinning the same record, I respect your position because it takes balls.

I enjoy taking risks, despite it eating away years of my life expectancy. The way I see it, there is little to no upside to being alive past the age of 75 anyway. I might as well burn bright now, then explode later.

All jokes aside, I hope all of you make money. I do not like to see anyone lose, except my enemies. With regards to my enemies, it is not enough that I win. They must lose too, in order to quench my everlasting thirst for victory.

At the end of the day, we are monkeys playing wildly colored accordions in small Italian villages. Stick to your convictions. Because if you stick to mine and lose, you will not forgive yourself later.

What the fuck is going on here? I was expecting beluga and received Hudson River sardines instead. The new correlation is silver-SPY, go figure. I suppose silver is the new barometer for risk, as idiots sashay in and out of the shiny metal as if it was a diversified basket of stocks.

You nerds who are short this tape are going into permanent hibernation soon, as the Chairman kicks the brains out of your heads, clean out. After this squeeze, there will be nothing left of you but dust and a tombstone, which will read: “Here lies a fucktard who got his brains kicked out by the Chairman.”

Seriously, the market is indecisive ahead of tomorrow’s numbers, I put some money to work this morning, buying beaten down former winners: OPEN and LOGI. Both of them are heavily shorted and yet offer better than average risk/reward ratios, providing they can hit said EPS targets. I needed to add non-basic material names, so I went with those two. I am tempted to buy GDI; but I rather keep some cash reserves in the event the market vomits on itself tomorrow.

To sum up my market call, I believe we will be at least 2% higher by Tuesday of next week.

Despite what “theedge” believes, I started new positions in both OPEN and LOGI. I expect to be early on these dogs.

I find humor in almost everything; because everything is funny, incidentally. For example: look at government employees, like garbage men or cops. They bust their collective asses helping out the government, in exchange for a little money. In the past, they were able to tuck that money away and earn interest on it, via CD’s or preferred savings accounts. Here’s where it starts to get really funny.

Without even a single protest, the government has fucked, mind you, the entire country out of their right to pursue happiness (money=happiness, fuck what you heard to the contrary). Not only is the retired cop with 200k in savings not earning interest on his nest egg, he’s getting fucked at the grocery store, the pump, his electricity bill and most certainly when he travels abroad—because the U.S. dollar drops 10% every other year.

Instead of reducing risk, our government, post credit crisis, has turned up the dial, only transferring it to the people. By taking away interest on accounts, they’ve forced millions of people into the stock market, where the inherent risks are exponentially higher. Because of this simple fact, it is my belief they will kick the can down the road, until FEMA has enough plastic coffins ready to store the entire state of Utah.

Without the stock market, this country is finished. In many respects, it’s the final frontier. We will either financially manufacture our way out of this mess, via creative and innovative financing. Or, we will fold and see the savings of millions evaporate into thin air, leading the way to a total and absolute disintegration of social obedience and eventual dismantling of the power apparatus in this great nation.

In other words, they need the market to trade up.

The reason why I didn’t sell more today is due to the ferocity of today’s decline, with respect to The PPT‘s Overall Hybrid algorithm. As you know, the system grades all stocks, based on technicals and fundies, using a 1-5 scale. When the rubberband extends to any extreme, it flags Overbought and Oversold signals, which vary in accuracy. However, for the most part, the Overall Hybrid score, when calibrated perfectly, cannot be fucked with or matched by any black box system out there, laughing at the shit you retail idiots concoct and spit on the institutional clusterfucks.

At any rate, two days ago the system flagged Overbought and went into extreme Overbought yesterday, registering the second highest score in PPT history. I was expecting a pullback, but not a broken elevator shaft, “fuck you, you’re dead” catastrophe. The result: a mammoth drop in hybrid score to the tune of 19.91%.

What does this mean?

It means the average stock graded by The PPT had its score sliced by at least 19.91% aka the 4th largest single day reduction in score ever. Your next question is “what happened on previous occasions of large hybrid drops?”

The answers are forthcoming.

9/7/10- Hybrid Drop 23%, SPY @$108.02
9/11/10- SPY @$111.05

4 day net result: +2.8%

6/4/10- Hybrid Drop of 21%, SPY @$105.19
6/10/10- SPY @$107.49

4 day net result: +2.18%

12/1/08- Hybrid Drop 20%, SPY @$78.08
12/5/08- SPY @$83.59

4 day net result: +7.05%

6/1/11- Hybrid Drop 19.91%, SPY @ $131.87
???????????????????????????????????????????

2/10/09- Hybrid Drop 18%, SPY @$79.65
2/17/09- SPY @$75.92

4 day net result: -4.68%

8/30/10- Hybrid Drop 18%, SPY @ $103.75
9/3/10- SPY @ $109.25

4 day net result: +5.3%

It’s worth noting, on the one negative outcome, the market was up immediately after the big down day and only dropped on the 4th day. And, there are numerous scores of double digit hybrid drops, with an overwhelming net result of higher stock prices, shortly thereafter.

Get your fucking popcorn ready.

TLT is up $1.4. You can’t short into this tape. You can sell; but to buy inverse ETF’s, following a 250 point decline is stupidity on a very high level. We’ve been down this road before and the end result is always the same: more liquidity.

Granted, things look especially ominous due to the prospect of QE ending. However, as sure as I am sitting here, they will inflate. The choice is simple: suffer deflation and staggering stock market losses. Or, you will pay for a $100 tomato. The choice is really that simple, at least in the near term. Long term, no one knows where the money will come from, maybe outerspace?

For the day, I sold out of CENX, EXK and AKS and added to my WNR. No panic, no fear—just space alien magician shit.

Eagerly waiting for The PPT to hit sub 2.6

Anyone who is anyone on Wall Street is well aware of “the cursed watch that can destroy nations.” It just so happens that a good colleague of mine is in possession of such a watch and is using it to advance his bearshitting agenda. At first glance, you will think nothing of the watch. It looks rather odd and grotesque in dimensions. However, if you dare to look at it for more than 12 seconds, you will see the devil himself (right above the 6).

This watch is responsible for countless atrocities throughout the world, over many centuries. Back in the medieval days the sheer sight of it sent locals scrambling for cover. Fast forward to today, it is being used to derail the stock market and cause a global depression. As you understand, this man must be stopped.

I am going to post a picture of the watch, which was taken in secret from one of my agents. Ten minutes after he snapped this photo, he was run over and killed by a errant sanitation truck (fuck recycling). In order to stop the curse, the arm that accompanies the watch must be chopped off. So, should you happen to see a gentleman with this watch, be sure to get a clean swipe at his arm, for the sake of the stock exchange. Typically, for this sort of close combat, you will want to use a hand ax, preferably with a diamond tipped blade.

BEHOLD your plague!

To alleviate some pressure, I sold out of both AKS and CENX, taking small profits in both. I am tempted to start selling some of my bigger positions, like OXY and CLF. However, something tells me to chill the fuck out. Look, this is the 10th time the world has been ending in as many weeks. There is always panic and people get flushed out when they should be buying. I am not confident that the blood letting will stop here. But, I do know it’s a low probability trade to sell when there is blood flowing through the streets, unless of course this is the beginning of something horrific.

Here is my question to you? timing horrific moments on Wall street, are they low or high probability trades?

Basically, this is garden variety bullshit, especially since everyone is keen to the news. There are no hidden dragons that will pop out and shit fire down your necks. Instead, we have assholes on CNBC, and other media outlets, telling us to “go away in May”, offering stats about how bad June is for investors. Well, the facts do not back up such slanderous claims.

Here is the performance of SPY, during the month of June, dating back to 2003.

2003 1.07
2004 1.85
2005 0.15
2006 0.27
2007 -1.46
2008 -8.36
2009 -0.07
2010 -5.18

My advice to you is the same advice I am giving myself: calm the fuck down and go eat a sandwich.

You cannot debate with a sublime harmony of mathematical precision. The PPT registered its 2nd highest score of all time yesterday.

In case you are wondering, no, I did not sell yet. I have my own reasons. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: I sold out of CENX and AKS