To alleviate some pressure, I sold out of both AKS and CENX, taking small profits in both. I am tempted to start selling some of my bigger positions, like OXY and CLF. However, something tells me to chill the fuck out. Look, this is the 10th time the world has been ending in as many weeks. There is always panic and people get flushed out when they should be buying. I am not confident that the blood letting will stop here. But, I do know it’s a low probability trade to sell when there is blood flowing through the streets, unless of course this is the beginning of something horrific.
Here is my question to you? timing horrific moments on Wall street, are they low or high probability trades?
Basically, this is garden variety bullshit, especially since everyone is keen to the news. There are no hidden dragons that will pop out and shit fire down your necks. Instead, we have assholes on CNBC, and other media outlets, telling us to “go away in May”, offering stats about how bad June is for investors. Well, the facts do not back up such slanderous claims.
Here is the performance of SPY, during the month of June, dating back to 2003.
2003 1.07
2004 1.85
2005 0.15
2006 0.27
2007 -1.46
2008 -8.36
2009 -0.07
2010 -5.18
My advice to you is the same advice I am giving myself: calm the fuck down and go eat a sandwich.
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Had pepper steak…does that count?
I’ve lost my appetite
Its all good for me…yet I still want some hiding in the dollar to make it a perfect day.
And my little dollar hitting session high…now it is perfect.
I agree.
the stories out there are horrendous and all the werewolves are coming out telling people how the Dow is heading back to 3800, devil dog territory.
I looked the component numbers in the hire stats to day and the biggest job losses was in government sector. This is a fucking good thing because the states and locals are retrenching like crazy 16,000 of those taxeaters lost their jobs this month. Meanwhile the private market put on 38,000 jobs. It’s a bit slow but this shit ebbs and flows and it also has headwinds from the worst administration in the country’s history.
Stocks may go down though, but I think there will be decent spots to look for buying.
The “worst administration in the country’s history” has DOUBLED our stock markets and has taken our economy from LOSING 700,000 jobs per month to GAINING several hundred thousand jobs per month.
If that doesn’t satisfy you, I suggest Russian Roulette with a fully loaded pistol. Which would satisfy US.
you sir, are a communist
Rigged unemployment increased precipitously under your Dear Leader. Clue in or check out, makes no diff to me. Gummint can’t save the economy.
_______
Barak Obama-Bush III is nothing but a stupid front man for Soros. They are destroying the USA together! Don’t give Barak all the credit.
The Obama Administration didn’t do shit. They are not market savy, just in power by circumstance.
Oh and I sold a lot of stuff when I saw the 3.33 register yesterday. man what a system the PPT is.
For now I’m long hamburgers & Heinekens & egregiously short bberg terminals and quad screens.
The short FXE / long UUP setup looks fantastic here, right at the base of a new trend channel and you’re fading the Greek bailout news.
It’s Getting,It’s Getting,It’s Getting kinda o’ hectic…
-Somebody NAME THAT TUNE!
Snap
I got the pow-wah!
______
I think we’ll be lower than here by Friday’s close.
nope, we’ll rally on thursday when LNKD signs up retard number 1,000,000,000,000,000.
you’re stupid.
I should be paying more attention to the hybrid ppt and sell on its highs and buy its lows. My sells today are intended to re-establish that discipline. You may be right, but I’ll be looking to buy below 2.50 on the PPT.
I hesitantly played the turmoil via July 97 crude puts, and enjoyed a hot tuna, spinach, and onion swiss cheese melt on a perfectly toasted bagel.
My lunch: clams in a tomato garlic sauce with a couple of hunks of fresh French bread to soak it all up.
Now I will have to get rid of the smell in the house before the wife comes home from work or else she will think I am having too good of a time working at home.
You rule TC.
Your SPY stats show a negative expected value for June. What are you suggesting about it?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
The two large moves in June were down. the up years were not much more than flat.
I am saying the stories of horrible June returns are overblown. They are pedestrian, aside gel
2008,2010
Time to get a fuck-it bucket and ignore this day-to-day bullshit.
todays action in CCJ and VCLK make me happy. SLV doesn’t look too bad either, so I agree lets calm down.
I’m flush with cash. Wait for panic to set in and buy at fire sale prices. Always fade the over-leveraged and overly emotional. It’s the best and easiest way to make money.
this is the beginning of something horrific, i can feels it.
ok , just ate a samwitch .. now I’m gonna go sell some stocks, like ……. NOW !!!!!!!!! 😉
mowed the lawn, made a hoagy, with an ice cold pepsi. laughing at the market confusion. only pussies get shaken out,nothing to see here
stocks falling in june
panicked people crying
oh why fly oh why
ha ha thats why
Ahem, I shall now observe that the ppt called the selloff
Again
Mmmkay?
Mmmkay?
cha-cha……Mmmya…..kay
I couldn’t help myself and got short mid-morning, adding to positions early in the afternoon…SPX, FCX, CAT, and AAPL.
Now that every one of those is comfortably profitable, I have established stops right near my break-even prices, so should the market decide to make some absurd reversal, I am reasonably protected. I’m considering moving them up to lock in more profit, but so far haven’t been motivated to do so.
I think this will bleed into Thurs and maybe Friday, but based on the assumption that we march further downward into the close (hopefully hard), I am planning to cash out and see how we open tomorrow.
at break even? you’ll get stopped, just for the fee to your broker
I am guessing on the usual dip buying bonanza and we finish down around 175 on the DOW.
I accidentally red thumbed this, didn’t mean to, just for the record,, mmmkay?
Thanks check.
drummer…fees are almost nil compared to the trades…the stops would lock in profits on all positions, just not much of a profit. I am hoping to never trigger them and not have to worry about it.
Death, I agree there could be dip buying, but so far it doesn’t feel like anybody is going to try to step in front of this very hard…I do think you could see it tomorrow morning, which is why I’d rather dump at the close and reevaluate in the morning.
To contradict my plan, the best money has been made in this market holding overnight (in either direction), so I realize I’m potentially throwing away a good move…still, I think the odds of 5-10 points lower is the same as 5-10 higher tomorrow.
fried chicken soaked in butta milk, rice pilaf, and a kick ass salata. going to make some brownies first though,just might spike em, gotta keep laughin at the market.
Thanks Coach Fly! Pep talks welcomed.
This market is getting Hammurabi’d under the hooves of wooly mammoths.
It had to be said
The euro is down and the US market us up. That’s a rare occurrence.
The US market is up? Maybe you have your monitor turned upside down.