ALERT: RISK IS ON

For those of you betting interminably on oil stocks — last week was your Waterloo. Good Sir, you have been dispatched and do not belong in the cadre of important men in the field of finance.

Below are the top performers of last week. It should be noted the custom indices are of my own making and the high beta index isn’t comprised of low brow stocks like the Bubble Basket — but instead “cool stocks” with beta ratios above 1.5.

All of the data featured above make me feel even worse about my flat performance — once again missing out on the cool stocks rampaging throughout the meadow of Wall.

Some of the notable stocks of gallantry were $ARM +62%, $SMCI +56%, $PLTR +49%, and $NVDA up another 18%. Everyone who is mad decries grandiose bubbles and monstrosities of evil proportions. There are clarion calls to sink stocks for good and for shares of both $TSLA and $NVDA race to zero — revealing their decades long scam.

If I were to agree with those patriots who seek to destroy America, I’d curry the favour of a great many of you with cries of “CRASH THE MARKET FOR GOOD” — but I cannot in good faith speak with emote, as I am a person fashioned stoically and can only translate my opinions via ethical logic.

Having been through all of the finest stocked market crashes of all time, once chancing upon the 1987 carnage via a newspaper left on my floor which discussed the events as a cockroach traversed up my 11 year old stomach — I can speak plainly to you now that this “bubble” isn’t ready to pop. As a point in fact, we are fixed to trade up and can only be interrupted by the sudden death of Joe Biden or news that he was to be replaced as a candidate in the 2024 Presidential elections.

Investors remember the Trump days and harken for them, which is why the tape will receive bids throughout the year up until the fateful day when the next President is crowned King in the Americas for the next 4 years.

The NASDAQ pressed higher by 3% this week and the small capped Russell jumped by 1.9%, in what could only be described as accommodative pin action. I wasn’t short or sick with the COVID-10 virus, but managed to only achieve a gain of 0.10% for the week.

Conversely, my monthly allocated quant gained 1.2% and my strategic portfolio of long term holdings jimmied up 4.8%. I used to lament about these things, study where I went wrong — retrace my steps in a never-ending search to unlock the secrets of my fuck ups. But it’s all a waste of time, as I am fixed to go higher and just because I counter-correlated the market — that doesn’t mean it’s over for me.

Quite the contrary, as a point in fact. I am best followed and most profitable when diverging from the broader indices, as I posses an innate skillset to navigate markets and subordinate the indices to my personal returns.

I must admit, however, the allure of continuing to CRUSH markets has weakened in over time, since the time necessary to achieve high returns is great and making more money for myself isn’t something that is motivational to me. After all, I won’t ever pull my money out and I intend to leave my net worth to chimpanzees for banana provisions.

I once again closed fully long and with leverage, but focused only on very high priced stocks with exception to one or two other equities, like Rumble, that have my attention. I do not mean to sound glib or laissez faire about current ongoings — but the entire set up is uninteresting. There aren’t any collapses looming and Pax Americana and its regime of evil incarnate continue unabated, gleefully and gayly into the rainbow sunset.

About a week ago $BTC looked like dead money. Today it’s flying above $47,000. It’s hard to keep the faith on things that dip. You have to be truly embedded in the story to see a dip and be happy about it because it allows you to buy something cheaper.

I’ve stopped buying $BTC sometime ago, content with my position, focusing on things like $UBER. But I should probably get back to acquiring it monthly, as if paying a bill.

Last night during the Putin interview, Putin mentioned how sanctions forced Russia to stop using dollars, going from 80%+ dollar usage in trade to just 13%. He also stated yuan trade went from 3% to 34% in a single year.

Given the backdrop of $34t in debt, a multi polar world where American dominance is contested, and most importantly the Chinese economy superior to ours — one has to worry about the long term viability of the dollar.

Because of this, I believe $BTC should be owned by every single person in the country. It should be added to pension funds as a currency holding and retail investors should definitely have at least 5% of their holdings in it — just in case.

The just in case scenario would be something akin to the little talked about movie from the olden days called ROLLOVER. In the movie you see the dollar collapse and the subsequent results — truly a spectacle to behold. I’d say the chances of this happening in my life time is slim — but in the event it does — $BTC will halt to the upside with non stop buying sending it well into the hundreds of thousands, if not more.

When the Ukraine war first started I was almost convinced Russia not only had designs on Ukraine — but the baltics. As the war progressed, I felt for sure Warsaw deserved to be entangled into the war too, as well as NATO — for the simple fact that their actions were hostile to Russia.

Whether it be due to the stiffer than expected Ukrainian resistance coupled with the amount of weapons America sent them to wage war with Russia — or the fact that Putin never had ideas of expanding the war in the first place and this was all a figment in my imagination — one thing is indelibly clear after watching tonight’s historical Tucker Carlson interview with Putin:

He (Putin) is an extremely well balanced and a deeply intelligent politician who seems to take a third level thinking approach to leadership — unlike the fools in DC today. You can see that he loves his country and will do what is right for Russia and not for himself or special interests. In a sense, and this is why conservatives in the west like Putin so much, we are jealous to not have a leader who loves our countries as much as Vlad loves his. He is working for the glory of Russia and the Russian people in a long tail strategy, contrary to what we get in the west almost every single day by politicians who brazenly operate under nefarious methods and whose allegiances seem to be everywhere else but America.

I’m not sure if Russians feel the same about Putin as conservatives in the US, since the grass is always greener paradox works in both directions; but one thing I was convinced by, and I hope these words do not come back to haunt me, is that Putin seems extremely open to peace talks and the idea of the war expanding seems to be solely in the hands of the nutcases in the DC — which may be something I need to think about further in regards to its impacts on markets.

Nevertheless, I am convinced that the west will not engage Russia (at least not now), not out of cowardice or lack of gumption — but the non-negotiable fact that western military production isn’t even close to compete with Russia. This can change, contrary to many on X who seem to pretend that the west isn’t able to wage world war. It is and it can do it again. Just before World War 2, Britain had about 75,000 troops in total and mobilized pretty quickly to a peak force of 3 million. At any rate, I don’t believe the interview revealed anything we didn’t already know, other than the fact that Vlad seems very unshaken and in control of his emotions — which of course is a good thing when considering the alternative.

Shut the fuck up with your bearish talking points already. This is all that matters.

The Nasdaq is now mostly representative of larger capped stocks now — equities I eloquently dub FAG10 inside Stocklabs.

Those are your leaders and the carousel continues, unabated; when it stops no one knows. My approach is to ride this until the wheels fall off and hopefully when they do I would have already made so much that the brief drawdown endured at the top would equate to a rounding error. I of course hedge often and never permit myself to be subjugated by market trends. The goal isn’t to make 10,000% in a single year, but the same amount over the next several decades — and then I’ll drop dead and leave my money to a group of chimpanzees for a life time supply of bananas.

If you’re hating the direction the nation is heading and commingle those thoughts with shorting the stock market — you are too far head of the game. While it’s true, the macro events happening inside the nation will eventually wreak havoc writ large in the market, please remember there are nations like Brazil out there with 65,000 murders per annum whose stock market, on occasion, is the envy of the world.

There is social cohesion and then there is commerce. One uncomfortable fact is the correlation between population growth, wages, and GDP. The more people we bring in, the lower the wages go and the more consumption of goods occurs. In a sense, the more migrants we accept into America the faster we’ll grow and all of the low skill low wage jobs will be filled by people of the desperate type.

None of this takes into account quality of life or social cohesion and crime. Simply put, America and most of the west are large swaths of land comprised of economic zones, to be managed in an authoritarian method to compel the socialistic policies for ultimate control of systems.

My ultimate point is, do not look at the stock market to affirm your grim outlook for Pax Americana. These are long tail trends that may take decades to manifest itself. Meanwhile, American people possess an extraordinary amount of wealth and ingenuity. It still is the cradle of innovation on planet earth and it’s a damned shame they’re punishing the people of this nation with policies that make them less safe and generally insecure.

High beta stocks ar +3.5% for the session, a ribald return that speaks to a high degree of risk underway.

Listen to me. If you tried to get as good as me, it would take you an entire lifetime, if not two or three, in order to be on par with my skillset. HOWEVER, you can be a very competent investor using one simple trick.

Understand that all knowledge is already priced into markets. If looking over the investment landscape and asked to choose amidst thousands of stocks in a sea of gray, it can be intimidating for people who are new or stupid.

BUY STOCKS NEAR 52 WEEK HIGHS AND EVEN BETTER ALL TIME HIGHS.

There is a reason why expensive clothing is expensive, expensive cars are expensive, and expensive wines are expensive. Whilst the branding aspect plays a role, more often than not expensive things are produced with a higher level of quality by people who are experts in their field. You will of course attempt to push back against this and suggest Old Navy is the same as Gucci — but it isn’t so SHUT THE FUCK UP.

When a stock is at a high, there is no overhead resistance that can stop it. The reason why there are levels of resistance and support is due to price memory, which is a fancy way of saying folks like to sell shit when their cost basis is achieved.

If you only bought stocks near their highs, not small capped shit but large, you could probably outperform the vast majority of professional money managers.

I had a solid session, closed +33bps with an 85% long book — tilting towards long oils here.

This is the exact opposite of what I usually advise people to do: betting on a trend that is not yet dominant. But there is precedent for what I am doing. I am thinking with today’s strength in basic materials and industrials — we might begin to see some continuation there.

If we do start to see oils, steel, tankers, and construction plays jimmy higher, we might be entreated to a massive market rally, an 80% up day.

This tape can be described as dull, as nothing of extreme importance is underway. Never short a dull tape. If you are short here, you must pray to the Gods rates spike. But the fact that rates have already spiked and markets haven’t gone down is a WARNING for you.

If you are short here, I would immediately hedge those shorts with some longs.

It’s a mixed bag out there, with a bias to going up. There are many stocks down today, however. As a point in act, only 45% of stocks are up today.

Thanks to some luck long $XPO, I have gains of +37bps — locked in — 94% cash and my sole position is $RUM.

Why am I obsessing over $RUM?

The elections LOOM and the right wing dissidents are talking extreme shit, exclusively on Rumble. Unlike Youtube, who caters to the GLOBOHOMO and the western satanic NWO, Rumble let’s people say whatever they want. What a novel experiment.

Free speech isn’t something bestowed upon us by governments — but a GOD GIVEN RIGHT. The fact these GLOBOHOMO nations are now jailing people for expressing their opinions shows you how much of a farce democracy is and how the time has come to radically alter the way our nation is governed.

I have some errands to run, so I will not be trading much. I do not like the tape and do not hate it — so I moved to cash, except for Rumble of course which I already stated above.

I don’t even feel like boasting about my gains anymore, as I have elevated to the next level of my evolution. Soon it won’t be meaningful to even berate my readers as I already feel close to nothing. The market went up and I made money — because I am a weathervane and move swiftly, at all times, with the prevailing winds.

I do not care if you’re impressed or idle in disbelief. It means nothing to me. I do not write for your adoration or your business, but instead inscribe a historical document of a man who once traded in the early 2000s and never lost. Through thick and thin, my story will be studied for generations to come.

I have core beliefs in the tape: $UBER, $RUM, $SPOT, $CDNS, $ILMN just to name a few.

So you know, Mrs. Fly is thoroughly unimpressed too, a point which I admire but I’m also unimpressed. Anyone can trade well and turn a little bit of money into a lot. You just need to have a very high IQ, good instincts, and possess the discipline to know your ego is useless when attempting to measure up against others just as smart and cunning as you.

Oh you think you can beat me? Let’s see you try it.

+7.1%, YTD, closed 85% long, beta of 1.69.