No One Gives a Shit

I should’ve known better than to expect some sort of downward path for stocks just because BANKS WERE COLLAPSING. As always, markets have managed to asses the risk and say ‘fuck you’ and simply sprint higher.

I got a little bogged down in $TZA and $FAZ but have since parted ways with those dastardly bad ideas I had and have now rejoined the soirée, fully expecting grandiose ballroom dancing amidst plumes of Champagne showers.

I have reserved 25% cash for eventualities.

Last year this time banks were utterly collapsing into the floor boards and western finance as we knew it was over. It was merely a matter of waiting before bearing the fruits of the coming apocalypse were to be digested. Since then the magicians at the Fed and treasury managed to paper over the catastrophe of higher rates and absolutely ruined balance sheets via tricks.

Well, one year later these issues seem to be reoccurring, with shares of $NYCB cut in half over the past two days and a series of regionals crashing.

$WAL -13%
$FFWM -12%
$VLY -11%
$AFL -10%
$BKU -9%
$ZION -9%

Here’s a look at the regional bank ETF, down 11% YTF.

BOTTOM LINE: We are living in fantasy land with stocks obstinately higher as everything burns around us. Whilst I’m not fixated on selling it short into the grave, I am cognizant of the fact that a shoe is going to drop, at some point, and really want to avoid being on the wrong side of the trade.

Good Sirs —

I have an appointment and cannot stay long. I only post this now to inform you that I performed at the very top of quartiles amidst the cadre of professional managers of coin in America — for the month of January. I closed the session +12bps and +544bps for the month, 50% long into the deleterious close without any hedges.

I am not assuaged by the bears today because the bond market says “fuck you.” I halfway expect a large spike in markets tomorrow. I say half because my convictions are low in just about everything but shares of $RUM. By summer, I envision $RUM north of $15.

At any rate, if you lost month for January — you have only yourselves to blame. There are men are here, specifically me, who are well equipped, both intellectually and emotionally, to deal with the horrors and the pangs of latter stage Pax Americana.

All of my trades are broadcasted live inside Stocklabs. Feel free to mirror me and quit being such pathetic losers.

Good day.

Post Fed, markets legged lower amidst the clamor of perhaps a more hawkish Fed than we expected. This is all bullshit, reasons to sell and behave badly. The tape was already ruined by $GOOGL and this is only exacerbating an already bad situation. Whether this is a one off event or the beginning of something special remains to be seen.

I have heavily hedged at 17%, actually making me NET SHORT. I am not disillusioned to the idea that this initial move lower may be false. Nevertheless, I am not in a position to gamble, as I am intent to keep my gains — now just +22bips for the session.

I have ideas for the end of session and will try to turn those ideas into action, in spite of the headwinds.

Breadth is at 40%, not terrible but not good. For the month, small caps are down 2% while the NASDAQ is up 2%, continuing a trend that persisted all last year up until the great small capped breakout in November.

We have some issues with the mega caps today, off because of the FAG7. The evil Google corporation is down 6.5% after an earnings miss and it should concern all involved. Although the small caps are up today, this is a temporary fix, as markets will not be able to rig higher without the main riggers in the game.

Nevertheless, I am nearly 90% cash, +32bps. How did I achieve this whilst riding into today 100% long? A little luck and some $RUM.

More later.

Good day —

Whilst I did not receive an airdrop of $300k for a fucking NFT, I did manage to make some money in the session, +33bps in an otherwise grim tape. Most of my colleagues out there reading this now were dispatched and bogged heavily into losses — swimming in a sea of Red.

This is where the wheat separates from the chaff and the reason why “The Fly” manages such grandiose returns year in and year out: I am never tricked or fooled and rarely miss out on any fun.

Into tomorrow, I am 100% long — mostly an array of very high priced securities. Sure, I do risk a drawdown — but nothing that I am unable to handle in real time. Play time is over and only serious men doing serious things, such as managing an elite trading room in Stocklabs, will make it through the fires and beyond.

Most of you reading this now will be washed out CLEAN by year end and never trade again, chalking it up to a “rigged game” and how it was impossible to beat the big bad bankers. Well, I have been beating the shit out of the big bad bankers every fucking year since I started doing this and find no reason, whatsoever, why you cannot do the same.

It’s fair to assume a potential war with Iran will provide shock value enough to jimmy up the prices of your favorite commodities.

The areas of the market most likely to benefit from a new war is as follows:

Defense contractors
Shipping/Tankers
Risk averse consumer staples
Oil and Gas stocks
Oil Refiners
Steel/Aluminum
Gold/Bitcoin

This is a classic war portfolio, one that did very well at the onset of the Russian-Ukrainian war. For the better part of the past 4 month, tech has led the way — specifically large capped. Whilst that may still be the case going forward, it’s worth taking a shot, I think, with something specific like this — if only for a short while.

I am not flippe flopping again to bearish. I am simply cautious. I went to cash at the open and just started buying stocks again now, opting to not trade and chop myself up to pieces. Some of you complain about the tenor of my trading and when I slow it down by not trading — I am accused of being an Uber or a Doordash work slave.

I was expecting to be up around 60bps this morning because I had $SMCI into an earnings beat; but when markets opened up I only harvested 20bps and that was my warning to step away. More often than not, it’s a good idea to go to cash after the open and then dive back in later in the afternoon.

After all, the proof is in the pudding, with my gains being superior to yours, always calm and collected and rarely. if ever sad about my performance.

As of right now, I have 60% cash, some risk averse stocks, some $ZIM and $SMCI and a $SQQQ hedge. My goal is to have a low beta in order to secure the +5.2% gain for January.

On the geopolitical front, we have a war looming with Iran over the drone strike that killed 3 American soldiers. We can argue about why Americans were there in the first place and how the poor Iranians were just trying to get us to stop bombing Gazans. It will do us no good, as we are not in positions of power to stop these things. All we can do it helplessly look on as our leaders draw us ever closer to an apocalyptic scenario — devils really. I suspect any incursion into Iran will GIGA-SPIKE crude, so be on the lookout for that and it’s probably a good idea to be long oil just in case. Gold and $BTC are back on the menu as well.

Look at me — successful yet again — up 133bps for the session, fully composed and collected in the demeanor one would expect from an un-frienzied man of extreme achievement. There was never a second during this tape in which I was not fully in control.

Granted, I was buttressed and buoyed by the obscene melt up in High Beta stock, who leapt ahead by 500bps — ending the sesh at the highs and with the cocks of bears laid strewn across the pavement.

Rates COLLAPSED by 8bps today and that’s all we needed to jimmy higher. However, due to the fanatical demeanor of this run, I switched back to very high priced stocks in order to avoid the Third Estate machinations and avoid any large drawdown into the final days of January.

I am up nearly 5% for the month and my riskiest bet is $RUM. I envision shares of Rumble tripling from present levels, laying waste to the plots and schemes of the globohomo — a cadre of people who are waging war against the free people of the west.

At any rate, it was a whimsically wondrous session with gains for all who went long and had the eternal fortitude to remain long in spite of the deleterious news and subsequent spikes in rates. It seems everything is calm again and Wall Street is pricing in more of the same, which is good for stocks because the money supply is ample and wealth at record highs. People love stocks because of recency bias and they want more money to buy things: homes, jewels, clothes, and cars. We are living during a period of wanton excess, especially for those keen enough to rig the game in their favor.

I cannot in good faith offer any bearish commentary after a day like today, other than to remind you pride comes before the fall and although the Sun Also Rises — it also sets.

See you catamites tomorrow.

Mrs. Fly has me undertaking projects in my youth I’d rage aloud in bitter scorn over — as it would take away my most valuable time — time from which I could use in a professional undertaking to earn more money. However, I am now open to the idea of wasting my time on idol projects, becoming an amateur carpenter and laying down tiles. Doing these tasks is of course TRIVIAL and any moron can do it. However, to do it right, like anything else — it requires experience and I never wanted to spend my time learning something that merely saved me money — since I’d much prefer to pay someone to do it and use my time to make money. As to the reason why I am receptive now, I feel lit lies in the fact that I really do not feel like dealing with bastard contractors in the house and their fucking trivialities.

My wife truly loves DIY projects, something I truly loathe. But at this point in my life, I believe I loathe contractors much more.

I haven’t traded much today, other than sell everything by 11:30am. I sold $RUM for a fantastic gain — but kept it in my strategic portfolio, in spite being up 17% from cost.

My daily gains are as follows:

Trading +66bps
Quant +100bps
Strategic +150bps
Tesla/Uber Focus +150bps

I am not a genius for these achievements, as High Beta stocks are higher by 2.3% for the session. YTD or MTD, whichever you prefer, we have an wide chasm between the tera caps and risky trading names. The MAG 7 are +9%, whilst the high beta index is -8.8%. It might be alluring to you, the contrarian loser, to wade into down stocks now and heave heavily into small caps. But this, like many other decisions you make, is most likely folly.