Practicing More Reserve in 2024

I am naturally a very anxious person. At home I am usually rifling through news stories, learning to code, researching stocks, reading a book, listening to an Audible, and conversing with people online and writing, all at the same time. I am what some might call a polymath, a person with a keen interest in many different things. When I was young and single, my eyes would wander for variety. I exhibit similar behavior when trading — always on the hunt for newer/better stocks.

Many years ago I was wantonly criticized for these methods, described as easily changeable and amenable to prevailing winds. But since 2020 I’ve grown to appreciate my changeability, providing me with grandiose returns in a market rife with turmoil and tumult.

But following years of rapid fire trading, I am attempting to do a little less in 2024 — perhaps reducing the volume of my trades from 75-100 per day to 40-65. Whilst that might seem like a lot — it really isn’t. At 6% positions and fully invested, selling and going to cash is 16 trades before 10am. Trying some movers throughout the day might account for 10 and then another 10-16 by the close. When the market is really active, I should not limit my trading volume — but instead maximize it — even via leverage. But this tape isn’t conducive with high risk, as the YTD trends suggest more of the same from 2023 — concentrated returned in mega caps with intermittent fake breakouts in small caps and subsequent collapses followed by mean reversion melt ups.

In other words, if you’re allocated in great big companies — you can probably relax and expect decent returns. But if you’re trading and trying to beat the market, you must remain vigilant and watch for pivots in the risk profile.

Today is a mirror image of yesterday, with high beta stocks +2.6% and the larger lower beta stocks much weaker. If you’re betting on the rally to continue in the $IWM — you’ll need a little luck on your side because almost all small cap rallies have flopped since late December.

What did I say yesterday?

“My assumption is for rates to calm the fuck down, which may provide succor for battle tested longs. We shall see.”

Today we have the US 10yr -5bps and the Russell ripping mammaries, +85bps. Today’s tape is much better than what the indices suggest. My High Beta index is +2.6%, a true barometer of risk. Whilst you sit there all slovenly and stupid trying to fish out the meaning of life — “The Fly” has transcended such small thinking and has hacked the stock market to be his personal ATM.

Gone are the days of when I didn’t know what would happen next. I know exactly what will happen and am in complete control of my sense and my purpose.

I closed out all of my positions in my trading this morning, +90bps — because I had to partake in a sojourn to the fucking dealership to see about my car battery leaking acid. It’s never a good thing to see and if I wanted to jump start someone with a leaking battery, I might find myself inside the hospital with 3rd degree burns and a shot nervous system.

Today’s market is focused on small caps and risk. I am not sure this is a recipe for success; but am open to the idea. I am going to walk my fucking dogs now and then make some eggs and coffee and then get back to trading, in that order exactly. I will also continue to pop into Stocklabs and talk shit to my paying customers, in order to remind them how lucky they are to have me guide them through the fires and lead them to victory.

The American Congress and Senate wants to destroy the nation via dysgenic policies. Crime is running rampant because marxist scum operate at every level of America’s government. When I think about all of the things that I hate about this country, I am so overwhelmed I can hardly express them into words, which is why I much prefer to simply talk about stocks.

This way, things are much simpler. I am enrobed in a bubble of my own making, where illegal migrants and neocon scum do not intercede in my daily routine. In a sense, trading is and has always been the original meta verse — where people congregate in a fantasy world to pretend and shape a world of their own choosing. If I want to ignore the GLOBOHOMO satanic policies of my government, I can simply buy $RUM and $DWAC and perhaps some stocks representative of traditional ideals.

The stock market, if you’re unaware, is the single greatest game ever invented. Every day there is a new puzzle to solve, some unique others are merely repeats. Your memory is tested often, attempting to recall how you played hurricane or wars in the past. We all know how to play riots and pandemics now — something the last 4 years have provided us with.

Markets are very weak today, but there was a rally and I managed to close next to flat, but fully long into tomorrow. My assumption is for rates to calm the fuck down, which may provide succor for battle tested longs. We shall see.

All in all, the pin action continues to favor large companies over small and the single biggest risk to everything is the interest rates, so keep a very close eye on that.

See you catamites tomorrow.

As a manager of your own money, it’s supremely important to assess the amount of risk you’re assuming with your holdings. For some of the more seasoned investors, we know just by glancing at the ticker symbols if XYZ is volatile or not. But for most, the unwashed masses, having a portfolio filled with all of the trending stocks is risk free, up until the inflection point of when those securities fall out of favor and collapse.

A little pro tip for you morons out there.

Affix a “beta” metric to your portfolios to see how insane you are and what level of drawdowns you’ll be subjected to during the next leg lower.

Inside Stocklabs, I create lists and indices to assess risk and keep on top of the tape, without having to dig too deep. These points of reference provide me with information that I use intuitively to base near term investment decisions off from. For example, this morning I had mentioned the High Beta Index was off by 3.6%. That single data point kept me long and provided me with the impetus to buy more. Because of it, I am 100% long and with this little rally going I’ve managed to reverse an earlier loss of 70bps to +25bps.

Look at the chasm between the high and low beta today. While it might be temping to dip buy into the high beta for the glory, the fact of the matter is — money is flowing into much larger and secure areas of the market. Even so, my portfolio now has a beta of 1.26. Into the close on Friday it was around 1.9x, something I was very eager to correct at the open of trade today.

The number one rule in trading is “never blow up” or take the proceeds of a divorce settlement and risk prison time with a YOLO option trade, short dated. Alas, I cannot force you mules to drink the water, in spite of the obvious fact that I have provided you all a reservoir of healthy clean water to consume.

Once again, the US 10yr is soaring, +13bps to 4.17%, sending the small cap Russell swooning lower by 1.8%. The chasm between the large caps and small is wide and pervasive — 130bps for the session. Digging deeper into the tape you’ll find high beta stocks or stocks that were previously fashionable crashing lower by 3.6%.

It is because of this deep decline in high beta that I am directionally bullish now. I had traded out of $TZA for a profit earlier — but have since opted a long only portfolio, at least for now. I might switch it up the closer we get to the close.

I did, however, move rapidly out of risk this morning in favor of slower, larger capped names. My losses, at the present, stand at around -50bps for the session and fully admit to be in conflict with the market.

On one hand the earnings and general sense of the economy is status quo. This condition was fine all of last year for higher stocks. But on the other hand, the rapidly rising rate environment has me a little concerned about a renewed spike in the CPI. Is that what is being priced in now? I cannot think of any other reason short of just massive selling of US bonds by foreign shareholders.

For trades, both $DWAC and $RUM are attractive to me, especially with Trump +5 in national polls over Biden. I had $DWAC earlier and sold it — but still own Rumble.

Bottom line: Perhaps the market is diving back into bear market mode — but I am not going to risk going short here with high beta stocks already off by 3.6% for the session. However, into the waning hours of trade — I might hedge and attempt to freeze my portfolio until better clarity is achieved.

It’s not all that difficult, once you’ve opened your eyes to the obvious trends.

Observe the losing areas of the market for 2024.

Imagine being focused in just those sectors, areas of the market which did fine towards the end of 2023. As a matter of fact, those are the areas of the market that people made most money in. If you’re gonna trade, you have to be amenable to change, able to bend in order to avoid breaking.

Acknowledging  the following trends is important, so shut up.

Median Returns YTD

All stocks: -2.8%

Market caps under $250m: -10.4%

Under $1b: -7.4%

Market caps $1-10b: -3.2%

$10-50b: -0.2%

$50-100b: +2.2%

Over $100b: +3.3%

The FAG 10: +10.4%

Now I know what you’re thinking because many of you grew up poor like me. You’re thinking “AHA — the trends are about to change and I’m gonna catch it before no one else does — because I’m a special boy and deserving of being right and rich.”

WRONG.

In real life the underdogs lose and the winners have already been chosen — the rest attempt to claw and fight for the scraps. Mentally, you need to accept this as the norm and embrace the people that you hate, like Mark Zuckerberg, in order to succeed in trading. If you commingle your feelings — you will fail — lest you’re entirely blue pilled and enjoy the globohomo.

The market is the composite of all human knowledge, constituting the thinkers and the morons. The easiest way to make money in it is by simply adhering to what is working and sticking with it.

Buy high market cap stocks that are technically strong, when in an up channel. If risk expands to other areas of the tape, assess it and allocate to it. It’s wrong to constantly attempt to anticipate a pivot, especially with the majority of your assets.

I was a strong risk day and all involved made some coin. I netted the week up more than 2.5% in what I consider sub par trading. My gains are above 6% for the year, so I am on pace to DOUBLE my account, which makes me happy, not for the money I am going to enjoy, but for the anger it will invoke in many of my enemies.

To be clear, I will never liquidate my account and spend it on things Mrs. Fly wants. The money I invest will outlive me and be domiciled in dynasty trusts, guided by me from beyond the grave.

I closed the session with a high risk profile, a portfolio with a beta in excess of 1.8. I do not fear drawdowns because I am a highly skilled, highly competent, highly professional trader of the very first magnitude. You should know, and I hope you now believe it, “The Fly” always wins and during the rare occasions when he doesn’t — things are about to swing back to the upside for him — lavishing House Fly with the many comforts and accoutrements one expects from a man of such standing.

GOOD SIRS —

I stand before you once again at RECOURD HIGHS. Nothing can stop me from manifesting my life from bottom left to upper right.

On a closing note, I am very bullish on shares of Rumble and have clear visions of the future with this one — laying waste to the shorts — cutting their heads off and placing them on pikes as a warning for all others to fuck off and leave he free speech platform alone.

Have a good weekend.

The other day when Google collapsed after earnings rates fell hard. Now with good numbers out of $AMZN and $META — rates are going bonkers to the upside, +16bps to 4.02%.

Are we really doing this? Wall Street is assessing the chances of rate cuts based upon earnings releases, based on the assumptions of the overall economy?

I’ve seen it all.

In other words, since the economy is good — the chances of a rate cut have lessened, even though inflation has been defeated and the banks are struggling to manage through the elevated rate environ.

Ok.

I sold everything in my trading this morning, after being wantonly disappointed with the action. I’m up 1%, but expected to be +3%. I took the 1% and stepped aside and now wonder if everyone else has gone crazy for continuing to bid up stocks with rates doing this.

Are you even looking at the bond market bro?

I’m a bit rudderless on the tech side of things at iBankcoin. But in the meantime, I can offer you poor folks of the curious nature a free trial to Stocklabs. I’d provide a free trial link — but the one I have isn’t sufficient in allowing you to set up an account. So the work around is this (you’ll just need to trust me on this one, some anonymous lunatic online)

Sign up here.

Submit payment and I will refund it (promise) and you’re good to go for 10 days of free service. I’d just let anyone in but the problem with not requiring payment credentials is it attracts mountebanks and people of ill repute.

I strongly suggest the Pro plan at $99, not just because I receive more money, but because you’ll get the full suite of tools inside the platform.

Good day.

We started off the day with bank collapses and ended with fucking melt ups in $AMZN and $META. Ladies and gentlemen, the evergreen nature of the market is a religion. We place faith in it, blindly, based off assumptions disconnected from logical thinking. I almost always revert back to selling short, only to quickly be reminded of the realities on the ground — that nothing really matters and stocks going down is a mirage, a temporary phenomenon that is always met with unfettered buying.

I traded poorly today, but fixed myself entirely long into the bell — ginned up with a doubled sized $FNGU position — because fuck you.

Into the AH’s, I am once again STEAMING into RECOURD highs.

How constant are my gains?

Take a look at this pal.

See pal, that’s who I am and you’re nothing.

We have to be bullish because that’s the trend. If and when it changes, I will be the first person you know to sell short with massive vigor and tenacity.