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Yearly Archives: 2024

ANNOUNCEMENT: Positions Sizing Changes for 2024

I like to make ANNOUNCEMENTS in all caps titles to provide people with information no one gives a fuck about. But since you’re reading me and not the other way around — you’ll just have to deal with it.

Effective today, my position sizes will be increasing from 5 to 6%. I know what you’re thinking “whoa — so reckless — how are you!” But you’ll need to fuck off with those opinions and find solace in knowing I analyzed this decisions for days and went over the data and have all of the documents necessary to support such a brazen and bold course of action.

The fact of the matter is, I am right more often than wrong. Ergo, by increasing my position sizes without demonstrably altering the dynamic of my trading rhythm, I shall henceforth make more money in trading. It goes without saying, all else being equal — I expect to increase my gains in 2024 by 20-25% with a target of +75% or +6.25% per mo.

As for markets today: we are beholden to the interest rate narrative and nothing else really matters. There are times when the economy is front and center or perhaps geopolitical events or even obtuse events such as short squeezes and/or liquidity events. But none of that shit means anything right now. Look at the US 10yr. Determine its direction; and trade accordingly.

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2024 Starts with Collapse

Barclays downgraded Apple this morning, sending all of the mega caps down 2%. Whilst at the same time the small caps are marginally higher. We are seeing very strong action in the crypto miners thanks to the holiday run higher in cryptos and we have early strength in oils, tankers,risk averse and biotechs.

It’s a confusing tape, with decent breadth and many cross currents, such as the US 10YR +6bps. I went to cash, +9bps early going.

The first week of January is the most important week of the trading year. The tone will be set early and the January effect never ceases to fascinate me.

I’ll tread carefully until I see a fat pitch.

Geopolitically, risk is very high. We had been trending higher the past two months thanks wholly on new FOMC schemes and the collapse in rates. Do not believe for a second markets can continue to trade up with rates also ticking up.

The Nasdaq is -233 and the Russell is now following it lower, -0.33%.

It’s over fucked faces.

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