Did $NVDA Shit the Bed?

Big earnings out after the close from overvalued poster child, NVDA. This is a company who has enjoyed extreme valuations expansion, due to their exposure to gaming, AI, and of course SHITCOINS. Remember when people were mining or BTC in their basements? Yeah, that shit was powered by NVDA.

The company went from 3x sales to 10x, based upon the idea that they could grow forever. Based upon the events which unfolded tonight, nothing could be further from the truth.

NVIDIA prelim Q1 $0.88 vs $0.81 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $2.22 bln vs $2.20 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Sales fell by a staggering 30% YOY.

NVIDIA beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line (160.19 +0.61)

Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.88 per share, $0.07 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.81; revenues fell 30.8% year/year to $2.22 bln vs the $2.2 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

Gaming rev -39% to $1.06 bln; data center rev -10% to $634 mln.

Co issues in-line guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $2.5-2.6 bln vs. $2.53 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus; non-GAAP gross margin 59.2-59.5%.

“NVIDIA is back on an upward trajectory,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA. “We’ve returned to growth in gaming, with nearly 100 new GeForce Max-Q laptops shipping. And NVIDIA RTX has gained broad industry support, making ray tracing the standard for next-generation gaming… Despite the near-term pause in demand from hyperscale customers, the application of AI continues to accelerate. AI adoption is accelerating in the world’s largest industries, moving beyond the cloud to the edge where AI processing has to be instantaneous. We’re excited about our pending acquisition of Mellanox, which will help us drive data center architecture for high performance computing and AI from the cloud to the edge,” he said.

NVDA is at the forefront of supplying the auto market with AI chips for automated driving. There’s a lot of great things to like about NVDA — which is why it’s expensive. But let’s get real here, sales dropped 24.2% YOY last quarter and this quarter it fell 30%.

Sales came in at $2.22b, flat from last quarter. On the bright side, the company is expecting 15% QOQ growth, which is positive and great — but they’re only giving guidance one quarter at a time due to lack of visibility.

Q2 of 2018 was peak revenues for the company, so expect sales to come in around -22% YOY.

Back in August of 2017, sales came in at $2.2b and then in the November quarter they grew to $2.6b. But net income for the quarter was only $394 million, which is more than 30% less than the August 2017 quarter. The implications of this is bad product mix and margins, either due to pricing weakness, increased competition, or a combination of their CAC skyrocketing due to promotions or increased labor costs. Either way, the company is far less efficient than before and I’d be surprised if the stock rallied on this milquetoast quarter.

If, in fact, they do $2.6b next quarter and then guide back up to $2.9b for the next quarter, then the company can advertise as being back on track. Until then, these fuckers are still trying to recover from the massive punch in the face they’ve taken and buyers of the stock should know there is a weakness here that is not being properly communicated to the public.

It was a rough road late last year, as markets dislocated and fucked up everything that seemed natural to buying dips. Since then, The Exodus algos have adapted to the market and have been working well.

Presently the SAAS industry is near the top of its hybrid oscillator, typically a sign of being overbought. But the QQQs and the SPY are not overbought just yet.

Here are some of the ETfs that are OB.

The notable standout is the banks, flagged by FAS. Delving you, you can see JPM does not respond well to an overheated stock. That’s what the algos do, measure technicals and compare the strength of those technicals historically and then measure to see what the stock does after hitting an extreme level.

In the case of JPM, the stock went up 1 time out of 11, for a 2% loss over 10 trading days.

FAS shows a little different angle to this trade, with the ETF performing well after the immediate OB, but then tapering off and sinking hard by the 7th day.

NVDA earnings after the bell. Markets shot straight up on China trade war news. I bought FAZ here for a trade.

In a flaccid attempt to make some coin, I bought some PDD.

Everyone is making money today but me. I just sold out of FTCH for a one day 8% loss — because I had bought it just before earnings were reported. I’m down on NUGT, down on my DRIP, down on my RIOT, down on my DTEA, down on my GROW — down down down down. The only stock that I’m up on is FTDR. The balance of my trading account, 60% of it is in cash.

My life has bee upended and uprooted by this move. For those just tuning in, I decided to sell my house and move to the Raleigh area of NC to become a southern gentleman of extreme qualities. I thought it’s be an easy task. I was wrong. Over the years, I’ve accumulated so much shit — it’s annoying. “It’ll all be over soon,” I keep telling myself.

Moving on, only 68% of stocks are up, so I can’t be the only loser out here. Am I? Is it possible?

On the bright side, 75% of my money is invested quantitatively and it’s up 1.31% for the day. Hence the term, “The Fly” always wins, even when he appears to be losing badly (sad face, throws self into lit fireplace wrapped in a burlap poncho).

Remember when people thought Steve would be the next one for Mueller to possibly toss into a prison cell? WRONG. Now Steve Bannon is making the rounds, talking about how Trump is literally the best President since Calvin Coolidge for punching China in the nose.

Here’s the talked about interview on CNBC aired yesterday.

Nasdaq futures are nearly up 100. Everything is going up and China is like a meaningless speck of dirt brushed off of our broad shoulders. There is nothing the Chinese can do but bend the knee now and beg us for forgiveness. This war is going to decimate Beijing and markets will celebrate this with even moar gain.

At the height of the crypto craze, the complex was worth ~$800 billion. Tonight, as you trade in and out of your favorite shit-coins, the complex is worth $280 billion.

Clearly, one cannot stop the future. Ergo, with that logic, there is another $500 billion in wealth up for grabs until we get back to record highs.

As for me, I dealt myself a serious claw-hammer punch to the nose when I bought the cryptos near the top, and then watched with an odd indifference as my Binance account shrunk by 90% inside of 6 months. But now shit is popping again and retards have fired up their Binance accounts and are back to sharing ideas on their private Discord channels.

Let me share my idea with you right now.

Name of the shitcoin is Aelf — and it’s going a lot fucking higher.

Why you ask? Because, man — they’re decentralizing the cloud, bro. They’re leveraging cloud nodes and securing transactions via the Blockchain, and various ‘side chains.’ Oh, you’re not up on the side chains yet? Well here’s your chance.

The tech is so awesome and amazing that I didn’t even need to place my magic rocks in the moonlight tonight for good luck. While my dogs might shit on the floor and piss on the rugs whenever the please, Le Fly does have an opportune here to extricate himself from this miserable existence and CATAPULT HIMSELF out from this upper middle class hell-hole and into Elysium (not death heaven, but something close) — all on the backs of ELF and other shitcoins to come.

As of this moment in time, my entire crypto account is in ELF.

I’m a Tycoon now, a crypto expert, master of the side chain, mogul of all things decentralized.

I put some money to work in some IPOs — buying FTCH, FTDR, SILK and I went all in on the crypto ELF. Try to stop me and I’ll rip your jaw off your face and light it on fire.

How about dat, fucked face? Forget about your stocks and bonds. How about some Ripple? Look at these fuckers run.

The volatility to the upside is back and Chinese money is piling in and everyone is thinking BTC is gonna make another run to 20,000. Who am I to stand in its way?

Time to log into my Binance account and add to my SAFU coins..

Whatever happened on Monday can now be rendered meaningless. We’ve just about recaptured those losses, based upon news that Trump would delay tariffs on European autos for 6 months. Mind you, the market wasn’t going down on this news in the first place. As a matter of fact, I bet you dollars to donuts most of you didn’t even know the deadline for auto tariff review was on the 18th of May, yet here we are celebrating this trade war victory with dicks in hand and jizz all over our faces.

Fuck this shit.

You can buy the Nasdaq +100 on this news; I will remain, inexorably, in cash.

The technical set up is bullish and I’m still 100% long in my Quant and I still have longs, like RIOT, working. But I don’t have any interest buying now. The idea of me getting involved with this sort of brainless exercise gives me revulsions.

Right now, and straight away, evert boiler room financial advisor in America is sucking Dow Jones dick now, smugly reminding their followers of the virtues of long term investing — telling them to always tune out the doomsayers — because the market, quite literally, can never go down.

The signs of excess and decadence are everywhere. A great gigantic cock of a storm is going to wipe everything clean, soon, reducing you fuckers into crying babies, sacrificed upon the altar of arrogant pride and indecorous rapacity.

UPDATE: *TRUMP PLANS TO DELAY IMPOSING TARIFFS ON AUTO IMPORTS

The market is supposed to be a lot worse than this — but we’re rallying. I could embed myself in a stubborn set of trades and wait for things to go my way — or extricate myself from the situation and wait for a better environment that suits my temperament. I chose the latter.

I cleaned out of most of my trading positions, raising cash to 70%. I sold out of my inverses too, but kept DRIP for now. I’m also still long NUGT and it’s a 10% position and I think I’ll hold it. I have a strong bias to the downside, especially on names like NVDA.

But the market looks like it wants to rally. I cannot force myself to like stocks and I certainly don’t want to get squeezed here either, so cash is my best option.