A Fine Start to an Otherwise Dreadful Tape

The greater a person’s ignorance, the more he or she thinks they know what to do. If you understand that you’ve been on the receiving end of a decades long bull market and all of your achievements are ordinary, you will then begin to humble yourself and accept the idea that maybe there’s more for you to learn.

Today I ventured out on a limb, play the long side. I did it with size and never thought twice about it.

The turn in WTI did it for me and the lift in oil stocks cemented my belief that 2019 will begin with a bullish flavor. Perhaps we drop later on and there are numerous concerns in the high yield market to pay attention to. But for the love of Christ, we’re down 20% over the past 3 months and even during the worst of 2008 did we have to endure a seemingly uninterrupted hemorrhaging of selling of this magnitude. It only got really bad after Lehman went bust and mortgage bonds were 20 cents bid.

Take a deep breath and enjoy the ride, FUCKED FACE. Markets glitched out last month and will soon recover.

How do I know this?

It was willed during the recent rituals at my local Grande Druid lodge.

Top ideas: BRZU, TNA, CLF, SLCA, HUBS. Basically, I’m fucking long.

It is a country filled with homeless thieves and whores. However, I like it now and would live there, if only for a few weeks until I was drunk enough to hop on a jet back home.

Notice the white candles here and how they’ve preceded a large move in the past? I believe we’re setting up for a similar move higher now.

I bought BRZU. Cash is now just 10%.

This could end up blowing up in my face. But there comes a time along the narrow corridors of risk when one must take it. I’ve been stupefied in cash, discouraged by the violent and severe downside action the past few months. Thanks to my trading prowess, I escaped the death-knell and have come out the other end of a -20% decline relatively unscathed. This morning I keenly and swiftly closed out my DRIP trade and reversed action into GUSH. The subsequent result was a booked profit of 11% in an hour. Annualized, I will be the wealthiest man in America inside of 1 short year. No ladies, Le Fly is not available. Nice try.

I AM BETTING FOR THE MARKET TO RALLY HO NOW and with verve. I am long TNA because small caps should sashay into the FAGBOX this month, an 8% feat from present values. Such a move would place TNA at $60.

I know it’s difficult for you to accept these words, especially since you’ve dedicated yourselves towards the destruction of markets. Ease up and fall back young pea. Markets do not flow with ebbing a bit. Everything occurs in moderation, the subtleties of grandeur are never apparent to those living in the moment. Those stepping back and looking at the nonsense from afar are sometimes able to see what others cannot. I see what they cannot — because they’re ideologues — weak men made from poor genetic code.

We rally from here and the great whores of Wall Street will suck us off and when they’re done, suckle some more.

Top picks: TNA, SLCA, DRV, CC, CLF, NUGT.

Listen to me.

Oil is lighting shorts on fire. Oil stocks have bottomed. HYG is flat and will go green. Utes and REITs are getting REKT. I’m still long DRV.

Listen to me.

We are on the cusp of a furious rally.

I bought the following, in addition to an earlier purchase of GUSH in the $7.50s.

OSTK, CLF, CC, HUBS and SLCA.

My cash is down to 15%, which will be used if we get going from here.

UPDATE: I booked gain in GUSH, 11% 1 hr return.

I made my allocations for the quant, God damn it. It’s a defensive portfolio, bookended by GLD and TLT. I also switched from DRIP to GUSH in my trading account — booking a small profit in DRIP. Reason being: large directional upside move in crude.

Am I now, all of a sudden, bullish on crude?

Of course not. Don’t be ridiculous. But I am bullish on making money, irrespective of what he asset class is, no matter the case. The trade in GUSH is simple. Market rallies = GUSH goes up the most. If not, oh well.

I am still long a lot of DRV, which should hedge me just fine. I am not looking for any more longs until HYG and SRLN trade up. As it happens, I have a nice windfall in the price action of EGO today.

Like I said earlier, it’s very likely we’re about to roll over hard and barrel into 5,800 Nasdaq. The GUSH trade is merely reactionary, so don’t read too much into it — fucked face.

I’m busy this morning reshuffling my portfolio. What you need to watch is crude, crude stocks, HYG, SRLN and also IWM — because weakness in small caps have nothing to do with China.

The opening decline is severe and often times these gaps lower lead to buying. I cannot say with any degree of certainty that this dip will be bought.

In the meantime, it’s important to note we’re at the top of a downward channel.

Observe.

5,800 is in the cross-hairs.

As many of you fuckers know, 75% of my money is managed quantitatively, a method that was very pretty and beautiful during the halcyon days of when the bull market roared, but ended up being mechanized ribald in the bear. For the past 3 months of the year, all of my gains, AND MORE, have been washed from my account. The net results for 2018 was a loss of 8.6%.

Jan: +6.1%
Feb: -6.13%
March: +0.5%
April: +1.04%
May: +4.5%
June: -0.41%
July: +2.25%
August +4.4%
September -1.08%
October -10%
November +2.79%
December -10.5%

Total return for 2018: -8.6%

In comparison to what stocks did for 2018, this was in line with most investment strategies.

My trading account faired far better. Much of these gains were enjoyed during the summer months, especially during my winning streaks of 28 for 31 and 31 for 34. Net net, I had a profitable 2018 and have made adjustments to the Quant strategy to protect against further downside in the broader markets. The details of this plan, AND MORE, are in the Exodus blog now.

My methodology going forward is to be more defensive in the Quant and more aggressive with my discretionary account. I’ve been catacombed in cash for the past 3 months, placing small bets which have, more or less, resulted in marginal returns. A lot of circle jerking, if I can say so myself.

Over in my other service, The Capstone Programme, I intend to review long term portfolios for January. If interested in an annual plan, the discount code INDEUD will be effective for approximately 1 day.

Starting tomorrow, I expect markets to set a tone early on and I will attempt to position aggressively, either long or short. Market price action will be my guiding star.