MARKETS DISLOCATED; CRYPTOS EXPLODE ON CHINESE CAPITAL FLIGHT RUMORS

This is not a new paradigm. The entire run up in BTC during the 2016 melt up started when there was significant capital flight out of China. Do you remember that?

CASHIN: "There's even speculation that Bitcoin's big weekend rally might be Chinese citizens trying to get money out of the country."@CNBC

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 13, 2019

It should come as no surprise to see the Yuan weaken against the dollar.

Bear in mind, during market pullbacks, all of the worst news and rumors come to surface. Most of it is bullshit and the chances of Bitcoin supplanting the dollar are exactly zero. But even during the Oct-Jan 2018 market rout that so many of you were mocking last week and the week prior — that shit lasted 3 months. Are you prepared for an extended move lower and possible retest of those lows?

Can’t happen?

Why not?

The Dow is -600.

Markets are down more than 500 and my initial sense was to sell and book gains in my inverse ETFs; but then I realized if I did that I’d be left without hedges and the market doesn’t look all that fucking great now.

We have a classic risk off environ, with Utes, Treasuries and Gold strong — everything else down.

My two major tells in this tape are NVDA and AAPL. Keep it simple. I am not, however, looking at crude today, due to mid-east tensions.

If you’re buying dips, you’re assuming today is a one off event and somehow Trump will get the art of the deal mojo going again. My sense is this cannot be resolved right away and might elongate itself for quite some time. Then again, Trump is an Apex Narcissist and might pull a rabbit out of his asshole in order to buoy stocks.

One thing I know for sure, betting against stocks for a long period of time is a fool’s errand. I just think, or hope, for more pain and rough shaking of the tree before we bounce. Bear in mind, a lot of fucking retards are long stocks now. They deserve to lose.

China is renowned for talking shit via certain media puppets. Here’s one of them on Twitter and this is what he’s saying today.

China hasn’t released countermeasures immediately. I believe the reason is that China is drafting a plan that will have precise effects, making sure it hits the US while minimizing damage to itself.

— Hu Xijin ??? (@HuXijin_GT) May 13, 2019

China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries and how to do it specifically.

— Hu Xijin ??? (@HuXijin_GT) May 13, 2019

So much winning.

Here’s why crude is higher — two Saudi tankers attacked.

Saudi energy minister Khalid Al-Falih revealed the tankers suffered “significant damage” – although it was unclear what the attack involved.

He said: “Fortunately, the attack didn’t lead to any casualties or oil spill; however, it caused significant damage to the structures of the two vessels.”

Trading and shipping sources identified the Saudi ships as Bahri-owned very large crude carrier (VLCC) tanker Amjad and crude tanker Al Marzoqah.

Dow futs -444.

UPDATE: Fed cut being priced in now as a foregone conclusion.

Traders are pricing in a 73.6% chance the Fed will cut rates by January. pic.twitter.com/KTxiTP6MoE

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) May 13, 2019

UPDATE:

CHINA SAYS TO RAISE TARIFFS ON 2493 U.S. GOODS TO 25%

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 13, 2019

According to Trump, tariffs boosted economic growth. BOOSTED!

The unexpectedly good first quarter 3.2% GDP was greatly helped by Tariffs from China. Some people just don’t get it!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 13, 2019

He calls out President Xi by name.

….completely avoided if you by from a non-Tariffed Country, or you buy the product inside the USA (the best idea). That’s Zero Tariffs. Many Tariffed companies will be leaving China for Vietnam and other such countries in Asia. That’s why China wants to make a deal so badly!…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 13, 2019

What the fuck is going on here. Oh, by the way, good morning. My coffee is hot as shit and futures are now -320. But, WTI is +1%, which is odd. Bond yields are sinking again too. I don’t think anyone should panic while WTI is higher. Nevertheless, this calling out of Xi can’t bode well for a deal any time soon. Will this pass and people just carry on like it never happened — or will it wreck markets?

STAY TUNED!!!

Goldman is out with a pleasant note this evening, laying waste to Trump’s claims that the trade war is advantageous to America — because it’s brining in BILLIONS in new tax dollars. According to Goldman, the entirely of the brunt is falling onto the backs of Americans.

Goldman Sachs said the cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen “entirely” on American businesses and households, with a greater impact on consumer prices than previously expected.

The bank said in a note that the trade war’s impact on U.S. consumer prices is now higher than previously expected, partly because Chinese exporters have not lowered their prices to better compete in the US market

“One might have expected that Chinese exporters of tariff-affected goods would have to lower their prices somewhat to compete in the US market, sharing in the cost of the tariffs,” Goldman said.

Futures are off by 200.

I’m mature enough to know -215 on the Dow futures on a Sunday night means nothing. By the time markets open tomorrow, they could be +200. However, in the off-chance these losses hold and heighten, Le Fly stands to make a large dicked gain in the morning — presently long SOXS, LABD, DRIP, and NUGT. My cash, which is currently at 50%, will be put to good use.

Truth is, you should’ve went away in May. I did warn you and if you’re getting BTFO in this market — you have no one to blame but yourself. Just know and understand, “The Fly” is mastering this market and will making live calls inside of Exodus tomorrow morning. I’d be interested to see if we edge towards oversold tomorrow and might even flip to extreme long if that should happen.

Although it looks ominous now, with Trump’s trade war boring horrible fruits — it’s literally a self-inflicted wound that could be resolved with one press conference and one deal with the Chinese. Be careful about overstaying your welcome on the short side — for when this squall is over — we’re going to springboard higher with an extreme vengeance.

It’s a wonderful thing living in a post-modernist society that has figured out a way to skip over economic cycles and just boom all the time. Good habits, such as dropping $10-15k per annum into your retirement plans, has created an ocean of wealth the world has never seen before. The money we invest simply grows and grows and grows — creating millionaires out of blue collared workers and 8 figure mavens out of those wearing white ones.

All of my friends, from cops to electricians to engineers to doctors, are millionaires. They come over to my house and show me their account statements, worrying about how they might survive in retirement from a mere $2 million. Naturally, this isn’t fuck you money and they can’t buy a really nice yacht with that minimum type of fortune, but it’s certainly atypical from a historical point of view and I don’t think people understand how lucky they are to be born into this timeline.

If you’re starting out fresh and trying to make money in stocks — subordinate your trading account to your long term account and you’ll be fine. Worst thing you can possibly do is pretending you’re special with psychic abilities and attempt to trade your way into a yacht. While possible, it’s not probable. Keep a balanced portfolio of boring stocks and see it grow over the next 30 years and you too can be a millionaire complaining about a $2 million fortune to some future version of Le Fly.

Until then, toil on and enjoy the pageantry of the market — the ups and downs — the clowns and the frowns — the evergreen struggle for dominance in a world where the winners have already been selected and everyone else is merely trying to glean some of the crumbs.

See the market close, +115? You’re right now brimming with confidence — on the balls of your feet, ecstatic by the specter of your own grandeur — having bought the dip successfully and floated into the weekend surrounded by an air of impenetrable success.

The tariffs on China have gone up from 10 to 25% and negotiations have ended and there isn’t a deal; but Mnuchin is optimistic and the President told us the new taxes on Chinese goods coming into America will make us rich. The money will be used to help farmers till the land and to build road and tunnels, maybe even great giant structures at the southern border.

Nothing can go wrong — because nothing is wrong.

Have a great weekend people and make sure to chill the champagne and wait for it to be properly frapped before consuming it.

These people aren’t going to let me down. Trump wants the market to go up 200% from present levels and has likely taken some index call options out to profit from it.

I bought ESTC and UPLD about an hour or so ago.

I still have DRIP, SOXS, and LABD, and some NUGT, but that is mostly offset by ZEN, UPLD, ESTC, SPLK and a few other positions in my trading. In my Quant, it’s lit AF — now higher by 0.93% for the day, 100% invested long.

Like clockwork, President Day Trader sent minion #1 of #2 out to suck the markets off and it worked!

Stocks began paring some of their losses after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said China trade talks were “constructive.” Chinese Vice Premier Liu He also said the talks went “fairly well,” according to reports. The talks are now done for the day.

Talks went from ‘congenial’ to not really mattering all that much to ‘constructive’ — but they’re over now. I do suspect brainless halfwits to make large bets. I, myself, am more position for nothing — heavily cash, but admittedly biased against progress and humanity and kindness. I’d like to see black clouds overhead and storm beating down farmers and large hordes of roaming bees blanketing the country — stinging people in the face and necks.

Stocks are now up and my LABD position is now heading lower. FML.

Taking a stand against science here, I bought LABD because this rally is destined to fail for a number of reasons, especially the fact that markets do not bottom on Fridays.

Also, I sold out of OLED for -10%.