Update on My Trading Positions

Oil has collapsed and is heading by way of the dodo-bird. I am the DRIP God.

I bought TLRY this morning.

My CRON is working fine — bought it yesterday.

DTEA — sitting and waiting for some cannabis news.

SILK — new highs, dead volume.

ROKU — just bought yesterday, looking for hundy roll.

FAZ-mobile — goes fast when it gets going. It’s gonna get going soon.

GROW — I forgot why I’m long.

TVIX — panic hedge.

SWCH — new purchase from yesterday.

LK — just averaged down. New basis in high $18s.

Yesterday it was Morgan Stanley, today it’s Citi. Please explain to me why these analysts feel it necessary to shill for headlines with nonsensical bear case scenario extreme price targets? Let me be clear, Citi still has a price target of $191 on TSLA, but thinks the stock can hit $36 if everything goes wrong.

I think Citi has a greater chance of going to zero than TSLA to $36. After all, should we get another credit crisis and Citi is forced to mark down assets to extremely low levels, they probably won’t have enough capital to remain solvent.

Here are the notes.

Source: CNBC

Morgan Stanley caused a stir on Tuesday when star auto analyst Adam Jonas put out a “bear case” scenario that envisioned Tesla’s shares plummeting to just $10.

And now a Citigroup Global Markets analyst is out with another shocking scenario for Elon Musk’s electric car maker.

Citi’s Itay Michaeli sees increasing probability the shares plummet more than 80% to $36.

“Maintain sell/high risk as the risk/reward still appears negatively skewed despite the recent capital raise and stock pullback, mainly on lingering demand/FCF (free cash flow) concerns,” the analyst said in a note late Tuesday.

“Reducing estimates to reflect the recent capital raise, Q1 results/guide and our own inputs.”

The analyst cut his regular price target on Tesla to $191 from $238 by adjusting the probabilities of three scenarios, seeing a decreasing chance of a big rally in the stock and an increasing chance of a share collapse. He sees a 40% chance (up from 35%) of a “full bear” scenario of $36, a 55% chance of a “moderate bull” scenario of $253 and a 5% chance (down from 10%) of a “full bull case” of $760.

“So the recent reported internal memo, which seemingly called into question prior guidance, didn’t help the risk/reward calculus. The implications can be serious, since an automaker’s balance sheet is always subject to the confidence ‘spiral’ risk,” Michaeli said.

Don’t worry TSLA longs — there is still a 5% chance the stock can hit $760.

TSLA is -3% in pre-market.

What sordid lies out of the fake news financial media. We have already been told that debilitating tariffs on the world’s fastest growing major economy is GOOD for America — because it brings jobs back and also makes steel plants sprout out from the ground — and it makes coal miners live longer with the black lung.

According to the CNBC degenerates’ poll, nearly three quarters of all businesses said a trade war with China, arguably their biggest growth market, is having a negative impact on their business. Well, if that were true, the stock market wouldn’t be going up — now would it?

Nearly three-fourths, or 74.9%, of almost 250 respondents to a survey held from May 16 to May 20 said the increases in U.S. and Chinese tariffs are having a negative impact on their business, according to a report released Wednesday by AmCham Shanghai and AmCham China in Beijing.

About one in five said they have experienced increased inspections and slower customs clearance.

The greatest impact of the combined tariffs is decreased demand for products, followed by increased manufacturing costs, according to the joint AmCham survey.

Obviously, this is the handy work of Hillary Clinton and her bandits.

In other news, it appears the rascals inside Syria are at it again — gassing their own people for no reason at all. This is equal to American police officers indiscriminately pulling over people on the road and beating them, or even shooting them with their pistols. If that would ever happen, I’m sure we’d attack ourselves for such grave crimes against humanity.

“Unfortunately, we continue to see signs that the Assad regime may be renewing its use of chemical weapons, including an alleged chlorine attack in northwest Syria on the morning of May 19,” State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement.

Ortagus said the alleged attack was part of a violent campaign by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces violating a ceasefire that has protected several million civilians in the greater Idlib area.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has twice bombed Syria over Assad’s alleged use of chemical weapons.

Now with Iran on the butcher’s block readying to be sliced and diced, I’m sure the sages at the War Department have a package deal in mind to tie up both Syria and Iran at once. After it’s all said and done, we’d free the entire Middle East from dictators and strong men who kill women and children for sport. As a wonderful democracy, we should never sit by idly watching madmen mustard gas babies in their cribs. How would you like it if someone came to your housing tenement and mustard gassed your entire floor? I bet you’d want the Housing Police to shoot those people, or at a minimum disable their cameras to beat the assailants into a permanent paralysis.

Futures were lower before the specter of more war was announced. Since then, futures turned brighter and American spirits rose like a waft of sweetly burned tobacco emanating throughout the balmy night skies.

Vegans woke up today to a bowl of mueslix and apples — thinking they too would make money in their BYND positions. Nothing could be further from the truth.

As we speak, a cordon of fate is wrapped around the vegan share price and a collapse is almost an assured outcome. Trading at 51x sales, one could make a strong beefy argument for a 90% decline in the share price. Not only is this stock over priced, but the entire concept is faux.

Once the shroud of hypo-feminine brainwashing is lifted from men and they realize being a vegan is literally the worst lifestyle any person could manage to conceptualize, they’ll throw away those Alpo smelling dog food “burgers” and reclaim their positions on this flat planet as fierce eating alpha male Apex predator carnivores.

It’s not important to spare the lives of animals, since they are inferior to man. We can eat them because they haven’t invented the wheel yet. Along that thinking, Europeans sacked America because the Natives hadn’t invented the wheel either. If the English were hungry enough and needed to survive, they would’ve ate all of the natives in America instead of just wasting their meat in senseless massacres.

What I’m trying to say is BYND got ramshackled today and the selling has only just begun. I’d expect shares to immediately slide into the $60s this week, led by tall and muscular men eating beef jerkies, imposing their will on the weaker Vegan underclass — who might as well be considered ‘virtual meat’ for the market now — to be eaten at discretion.

I told you not to get involved with dat.

$TSLAQ FinTwit are now lighting themselves on fire in protest of today’s reversal, chalking it up to a “rigged market.”

Truthfully, and this goes without saying, TSLA shorts are the greediest people alive. This stock is already down 50% from the highs — but they’re not satisfied until GM and F are solely cranking out piece of shit America gas guzzlers and Elon Musk is in prison for crimes against the stock Gods.

In a perfect world, shares of TSLA will rise to $1000, mainly out of pure fantasy, and chop the dicks off the TSLAQ cadre, displacing them once and for all from civilized society and relegating them to the trash bins they deserve.

I stepped in and bought CRON — thoroughly looking forward to pot smoke being shared in churches, synagogues, and mosques in the not too distant future. In the meantime, I’ll be happy if the stock went to $18.

NOTE: I sold out of NUGT for a 5.2% loss.

This is like predicting Amazon will land a man on the moon by 2024. Adam Jonas, who probably left the Jonas brothers to become an analyst at Morgan Stanley, is out making a dramatic splash today — thanks to his research note that says TSLA can go to $10, if a sundry of things coordinate and all work towards the stated goal of destroying the company.

Needless to say, the TSLAQ crowd on Twitter are besides themselves with joy this morning — retweeting one Tesla car crash after the next — warning people of the dangers of auto fires, and simply stating to others that there aren’t any Tesla auto-mechanics to fix or service the Tesla fleet — alongside this Morgan Stanley note.

We have long held that Tesla’s share price performance is driven by: demand for its products, ability to generate cash flow, and access to capital markets. This year’s sharp deceleration in demand has led to a substantial curtailment of the company’s ability to self-fund through free cash flow generation, at the margin potentially impacting the firm’s access to capital. Tesla’s recent $2.7bn equity and convertible debt raise may provide an extra year of liquidity to run a business of this size and cash consumption. However, Tesla may now find itself in a cycle where a lower share price may itself contribute to a potential deterioration of employee morale as well as potentially increased counterparty risk with both customers and business partners (suppliers,governments)… potentially further impacting fundamentals.

We believe Tesla may have over-saturated the retail market for BEV sedans outside of China. Tapping into new demand could require aggressively expanding into: 1) the Chinese domestic market, 2) lower-priced SUVs, 3) and logistics/mobility fleets. Tesla is a large and highly vertically integrated company, capacitized to build between 500k and 1 million units annually. In our opinion, Tesla has grown too big relative to near-term demand, putting great strain on the fundamentals.

Shares of TSLA are -3.1% in pre-market trading.

Full research note.

While you bozos leverage up the account for a big bounce off the bottom, Mother Market is roasting your fucking balls in hell.

Look at all of these sectors in correction territory. You’d have to be a madman to dive in headlong here.

Trump is also insane, and that’s not saying much. He’s now gallivanting throughout the country telling folks the trade war is helping the economy. I don’t know what to believe anymore. But this god damned tape should be down 30% from the top — yet everyone is here calmly and glibly positioning for a fantastic summer run.

I hope you all get what you deserve, and more.

Admittedly, that title is click-bait AF. Truth is, the semis are going down pretty hard, but not in ruins — at least not yet.

Here’s all you need to know. INTC is down 25% the past month and NVDA -18%. These are staggering losses, considering VIX is sub $20 and everyone is complacently waiting for stocks to regain it’s upward bias — back to new highs.

Perhaps there is something to learn from all this — or no?

Top longs: TVIX, DRIP, NUGT, FAZ.

China has 90% market share in rare earth minerals, which is used in a sundry of things pertaining to electronics, especially smart phones. Since China has weaponized their supply against us before (2010), it’s now widely believed that Xi’s visit to a rare earth facility yesterday was a signal that Beijing was willing to do it again.

Via South China Morning Post

Chinese President Xi Jinping has sought to tap into the “Long March” spirit of endurance to rally the public as trade and technology tensions rise with the United States, observers said.

In his first domestic trip since the escalation of the US-China trade war early this month, Xi visited one of the country’s major rare earths mining and processing facilities in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, state news agency Xinhua reported on Monday.

He also paid respects at a monument in Yudu, a county in the city, marking the start of the Communist Party’s Long March 85 years ago, the report said.

Xi was accompanied by Vice-Premier Liu He, Xi’s most trusted adviser and China’s top trade negotiator in the year-long talks with the US.

State media gave few details of the trip and made no mention of the trade war, but analysts said the president’s visit sent a strong message of China’s determination in the stand-off.

China has toughened its rhetoric in recent weeks as Washington raised tariffs on thousands of Chinese exports and put China’s telecom champion Huawei on an export-control list. There is also growing speculation in China that Beijing could consider banning the export of rare earths to hit back at the US.

Beijing has weaponised the trade of rare earths before, slashing the export quota by 40 per cent in 2010. The US, Japan and the European Union filed a complaint against the Chinese quota at the World Trade Organisation in 2012, with the WTO ruling against China. Beijing dropped its export restrictions in 2015.

But other observers were sceptical of the effectiveness of a rare earths ban.

Renmin University international relations professor Shi Yinhong said rare earths were not significant given the wide impact of the trade war.

“It would be a small matter even if China weaponised rare earths to retaliate against the US,” Shi said.

“We should prepare for an intensification of Washington’s ongoing efforts to stem the flow of technology from the US to China by investment restrictions, export controls, and limits on visas for tech-oriented students and workers,” Kroeber said.

Shares of the rare earth ETF, REMX, is soaring on high volume.

China to U.S.: You wanna cut us off from your electronics components? We’ll cut off the materials that go into the components. How does that sound? https://t.co/py9B77fA7i

— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) May 20, 2019