China raised interest rates, for the second time in 10 weeks, in an effort to contain inflation. Frankly, it doesn’t matter what they do, since all of the hot money fucking up their matrix is coming from western printing presses. In other words, if they put the breaks on their communist banking system, we will simply send over a few hundred billion of “investment capital” to fill the void.
The way I see it, we are attempting to destroy China, vis a vis cheap money, cocaine and hookers. In Hong Kong, real estate prices have risen by 50%, YEAR TO DATE. Think about that. On top of that, it is widely believed that the Chinese economy is 60% construction. So, if you were trying to really, really debilitate an enemy, what better way than to create a massive bubble, of tulip proportions, that will one day capitulate and collapse?
Naturally, the ramifications will be widespread, as China is the main driver behind commodity prices. Eventually, Copper, Oil and and a variety of commodities will plunge by 50%, before recovering. However, as long as the carousel turns, the current scheme will continue and we will continue to get “rich as fuck” off Bernanke Bucks inflating everything but U.S. real estate.
Near term, the Chinese rate hike may spook investors, for about 1-2 hours. Once people understand that China’s rate hikes are the equivalent of Nancy Reagan saying “just say no to drugs,” the party will be back in full force, up to the biggest jerk-off party of all time: New Year’s eve.
NOTE: Thursday’s sales pushed my cash position up to 30%.
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What the Hell !?!
15 minutes later and no is posting FIG??
Must be stranded at airport…or frozen in Hotel pool?
9+ inches in Virginia Beach and still snowing…
Long snowblowers…and salt
CMP is the biggest rock salt company in America.
I agree, whether you were joking or not, I think we are trying to sabotage the economy. The Economist did an interesting piece on China “The Dangers of a Rising China” (although we know the brits love nothing more to mock and scare us in their publications) – it was a good piece.
I think back about a month ago, China banned foreign property purchases there, or limited it to one purchase, maybe in fear of more economic sabotage on the obvious bubble that is being created there. 50% in one year? Wtf. It’s just not sustainable.
MTV cribs, The Homeless Edition
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVJiR8cn78c
Quality sanitation system he’s using.
I absolutely love this article. Could not have put it any better myself… Will be tweeting and sharing this with friends and the investing community.
Said Le Fly as he methodically starts to raise cash. 63 % bulls vs 13 bears…VIX 15 same spot as 2007– Now Meredith Whitney instead of moving markets is mocked as a cockblocker….Jobless recovery –Housing in the shitter—-40 million on food lines— $AAPL $NFLX $CMG $GLD hot hot hot. Govt. POMO has rigged the market….watch out for that rouge trader from Wadell and Reed.
It is amazing how sentiment changes.
Anyone looked at the Baltic dry index lately. Really? A global recovery?
Agreed, at some point China will BTFU.
Where will that leave us?
same place we are today – nowhere
The Eurozone is the 600 lb. guy running from a grizzly bear.
The US is the svelte 400 lb. guy 2 steps in front of them.
Why run away from Russia??
I effin’ wish China would BTFU – but don’t you think they have the wherewithal to eventually engineer a soft landing even if they fuck up the first few attempts?
Discuss amongst yourselves…
I am with the basic IBC program of rally into the new year and early 2011 correction.
However, I have made the fundamental decision to hold of on all sales until 2011. I will be dumping like a madman the first few days of 2011… This decision is made for the simple reason of having a maximum amount of capital to work with the last 8 months of 2011 (deferring tax payments by one year) as…
as… I strongly suspect that 2011 will, at some point in the year, see something of a repeat of 2010’s summer-of-deflation-panic. Plain and simple the prices of commodities are inflated artificially in more than one way right now, including “investors” and “speculators” money, china, etc. Its the momo trade of today, and eventually, catalyzed by something, that momo will blow off.
So, I am hoping the next 5-6 trading days do not involve heinous sell offs. If they do, it may be that my choice is still appropriate, but I’d sure rather that they don’t. I guess, for the last week and the next week, I am a peckerless “buy and hope” investor.
Do not hold off sales, just to save on taxes. It really should play no role in money management–pennywise, dollar foolish.
Sell off lasted 2 hours – good call! Back to your regularly scheduled rally.
Indeud.
Do you think Mr B will be able to reduce mortgage rates from here? Or have we seen the bottom in mortgage rates?
I’m thinking he can drop them one more time before it’s all said and done. Just in time for spring selling season. That way he tricks you into thinking that 4.50% is a good rate when they come down. He’s hoping we will jump on houses in fear of losing low rates.
Looks like everyone is ready to do the Jamaica Jerk-Off this week. I’ll sit this one out….
I’m a little worried the blizzard in nyc is going to keep the cocaine and hookers from getting supplied to their customers monday and tuesday – causing a market rout.
China keeps trying to restrain their economy and it keeps growing 9-10% annually.
They can’t stop building all of those empty buildings
That’s because we are their Central Bank while they remain linked to the dollah.
Har har har har.
__
China gdp or gnp or whaaatever. Is measured in production not consumption. is that correct? Lots of refrigerators in an empty warehouse somewhere
Not quite. It is measured from BOTH ends, as output and as expenditure. “Refrigerators in empty warehouses” means somebody got income from producing and/or selling them, but there was no corresponding consumption. This income must be directed somewhere. One guess is that it is saved and then used for speculative purposes, thus driving prices for limited “consumable output” higher. Don’t know. One cannot really apply macro to communist society.
The refrigerators get shipped to Best Buy and sell for $350.
True Grit is an awesome movie. Over played to perfection.
I want to see that movie. Maybe in about a month, after the snow melts, I can escape my house.
I doubt anyone in Govt could be that smart….maybe more dumb luck. But it is destroying the moral of the chinese workers in a big way. http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2010/201012/20101227/article_458382.htm Next week we have only 2 days of POMO to deal with. You know all this hot money running into China and commodities is going to end so ugly…europe and australia will be destroyed along the way too. Well, at least AAPL, etc will rally.
What I get out of that article is that the rise in commodity prices has not made it into consumer products yet. I suspect it will in time, and then we will have the mother of systemic inflations in our economy. The producers of are squeezed between high input costs and limited pricing power.
Very true, it also explains why China is going to try and shift away from an Export Economy. I am going to be very interested in seeing our Dec Final Sales, esp Europe’s which is a big buyer of China stuff.
Fuck China Buy FXP
Better yet, learn to hug…
_____________
John Law…
Fly, if the velocity of money is so poor then how are the clambux exporting to China, through the banks?
Regards,
Hello,
I am experimenting with PollDaddy and created a Sentiment Survey. It has 7 different responses. The poll closes on Sunday. My goal is to get at least 200 different voters in the poll.
http://poll.fm/2k8da
I am going to post this survey up on other places of the web. Feel free to share it. If I get enough voters then I will keep going doing a weekly sentiment survey.
Thanks for your participation. If you don’t mind, I will post this up again a few times later in the day and tomorrow so as to get the max number of responses.
VLNC is happy today.
How in the world does one measure the moral of the Chinese worker. Would they should have the enthusiasm of a Four Seasons hooker but aren’t they largely inscrutable? Does a Communist foreman really care about his platoon’s joie de vivre?
Lots of civil unrest over there…little gets reported. People are People, don’t care what flag they are flying.
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