A great man once said “the stock market is nothing more than a series of fortunate events followed by calamity.” Well, we are certainly fortunate to behold such an enduring bull run. Prior to the bell, seeing the late day magic, I stepped in and bought shares of MWW and FORM. FORM is an interesting story, being 9% owned by Goldman Sachs, with close to $8 in net cash. It’s a turn around story, with a floor, thanks to the cash. My type of play. I will buy more if it dips.
My MWW play is based on unemployment. Should we create more jobs, as sure as I am sitting here, MWW will explode higher.
After the bell, it appears CSTR knocked the cover off the ball. I am rooting for that stock, even though I do not own a share. Once again, companies are reporting solid numbers, with exception to few. I did not like the numbers out of TER yesterday, which is a leading indicator for the semis. Do not be surprised to hear of more weakness coming from the semis. Although it’s tenuous, the recovery continues, exclusively on the balance sheets of companies. Considering the Fed is hell bent on seeing an uptick in employment, I will be shocked if we do not see at least a 1% reduction in the unemployment rate, 12 months out.
Nevertheless, I would prefer to allocate cash at better valuations. The problem isn’t valuation on a macro-level. Overall, the market is not expensive. My issue lies with the hot money, chasing growth to no end. We will have a shake out of the high price to sales names; and when we do, it will allow for a buying opportunity in names that are fairly valued.
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Genius!
Second
Second, Section B
Go CSTR! might go up even further once digital strategy is announced during call.
Second
…ahmen!
Commodities index more crowded than at 2007 highs. Emerging market bonds 3x more crowded than their highest previous recorded readings. As a result, this market is much more overbought than it appears, on the surface.
That being said, the XLF chart is still totally unreadable here. 15 day long indecisive symmetrical triangle. XLF also has almost 5 years of volume profile support built up at the present price level.Bank Fundamentals too terrible to allow a rally, but, charts too consolidated to allow a drop. So, if banks chop around from here, we may never get a steep decline–just a Japanese style staircase descent–in all indexes
Also…since I found out, per Fly’s Link, that Paul Tudor Jones watches RMB/USD like a hawk…I have been learning to watch it too….the USD/CNY is at extreme oversold levels short term….Hillary is heading to China to talk F/X….imho China may pop it just so she may keep quiet and leave….will watch….plus UK had a strong beat on GDP, I know this GDP Friday is just a random guess by Govt…but if it is good, the whole QE thing could be getting kicked in balls….btw did anyone get one of the Fed Reserve Surveys??? If so, what did you write?
Which one and when are you asking about? The SCF, Senior Loan Officers or pre-FOMC dealer?Whichever, I give only name, rank and serial number.
Rug…the pre FOMC by the New York Fed to the U.S. primary dealers on their expectations for additional Fed easing
Nympho-
I did some research on the PBoC after reading the PTJ article and it’s interesting to see it from their side. Remember, everyone loves to talk their own book. Check out their Chairman’s (?) speeches on foreign exchange and why they decide to keep their currency at certain levels.
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/english/956/index.html
Hillary is sitting out this election. She is probably tickled to have something else to do.
Real Hmmmm…I read the China papers every night and go to many of their Govt sites…I have read most of those speeches already..China has a lot of problems with unemployment and civic unrest…it is a very difficult balance…
MWW congrats!
thnx
Nice!
I only have 50 shares of CSTR.
Boo. and Yah.
“The Fed is hell bent on seeing an uptick in unemployment…” lol I’m not actually sure you meant downtick.
I am beginning to think we need to consider raising rates. The spigot has been opened long enough with marginal improvement. The dollar is getting destroyed, commodities are soaring, and inflation is on the precipice of increasing. A number of companies, like primary metals, have increased prices on their goods and others are set to do so at the start of 2011. CRI announced they will be passing on cotton prices in January, CMI is increasing prices for generators and ATS come 1/1, and the others on my list are ready to tighten their nooses. Those that already rest their laurels on the ottoman of existing product demand will enjoy the extortion of customers and will expand their margins while growing faster going forward. I intend to buy some of these on a pullback and hold them until necessary.
Hah! Product demand??? With a real world unemployment rate of 16-17%???? Even crowding 20 in some parts. Where’s the demand coming from?
Peruse:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304741404575564513671219970.html
OK I perused…….I fail to anything overtly positive in those comments. Some positive spin perhaps but forsooth and begorrah mon, nothing there that would inspire any confidence for a discerning eye.
I’m not looking for full economic recovery, but technology, industrials, etc. have had strong demand in the past few quarters because of business investment and such but those are industries where there is demand. The pent up inflation held at the producer level has the potential to follow through which will further degrade yields on investments and assets. If companies like CMI start passing on costs to customers that are demanding product because of capex then it will reflect in CMI’s earnings even though it will eventually weigh on the economy as other producers begin to pass costs onto an economy where wages are not compensating for inflation and unemployment is high. When this happens, run-on sentences may become rampant and broad returns may suffer.
Nice response. I see your run on is as long as mine. I agree that there is a log jam of price hikes at the manufacturer level. I just don’t see that the demand will materialize due to the fact that so many are without work and those that are working are often at reduced wages or salary.
Yea, it’s not yet in the tangible consumer level crap. I mean even today look at the EMN note in their earnings. They beat on eps, revs, and had revs that are 29% higher y/y. Reasons for their higher earnings are: higher sales volume, higher selling prices, increased end user demand in packaging, durable goods, and other markets. Their increase in selling prices is a response to higher raw material and energy costs.
I’ve read that a bunch of chemical companies have increased prices on their products. This is early stage stuff. The fact that CRI acknowledged cotton commodity prices is a concern as it will only slightly impact the calculation of CPI but may cause problems at non-vertically integrated retailers. My point is that I wanted to show that some early stage (industrial) companies are passing costs onto their buyers and concern is being acknowledged.
Indeud… the “recovery” can only be found on company balance sheets. How can that drive a recovery on the street? and how long can this continue if unemployment doesn’t budge. Housing is already in the crapper and likely to shit itself a bit more. We need to do a chapter 11 style cramdown to fix this. Its the only way to restore long term confidence and re-build capital. Short-term pain, as much as it’s gonna suck, is the only way.
government needs restructuring
debt needs restructuring
housing needs restructuring
may as well get to work now….no point in delaying any further.
education, medical facilities, companies seem to have weathered the storm better.
Market has priced in a Democratic disaster. Considering selling the news next week.
Considering….mind you.
Yeah. “The Market” is stupid, failing to understand that stocks do twice as well under Democratic administrations than they do under Republican administrations.
“The Markets” have “priced in” stupidity – cheap.
Better to look under “Congress,” than Administration, as they are the ones who propose the laws that make the budgets, but then, if you’re a Dem, the lack of civics training is a foregone conclusion.
Otisbama will be Four gone as well.
__________
a fine day indued
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIvCJC8oAIE
If unemployment is a target, they might try keeping the Mexican immigrants out.
Then rich fuckers could hire unempoyed ‘mericuns to cut their grass.
Forty-seventh!
Hurray!
ya got 1/2 left ….
Glad for you Fly. Well done Sir! Had some mww. Nice to be a winner.
Funniest story of the evening: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/nyregion/29young.html?_r=1&hp
Indeud! ‘Twas a rollicking bit of hyperbole regarding the Annnnnointed One. An intellectual?………in his own mind perhaps.
The fundamental flaw in the argument that the Constitution is a “living” document ignores the fact that if it is indeed subject to the whims of the people interpreting it, as well as “advances” in human thought and reason, then we may as well have no Constitution at all. We can just make our country’s rules up as we go along because if it is merely a living document, then there are no self evident truths which cannot be contorted to fit the agenda currently in vogue.
Who are you and what have you done to Le Fly?
Idk but this sudden change in heart stuff makes me feel like something is going to change. Before you know it WABAM the fly is leaving (atleast to hopefully just report inside the ppt) or maybe he has the intern working on usand he/she is just too kind. Conspiracy theories ahhh