Japan’s economy is falling apart, as evidenced by factory orders and its currency. They will need to make drastic tax cuts, in order to keep their corporations from fleeing. Thus far, the market is not pricing that in, or any negative news, due to the shield of QE2. The whole concept of QE2 makes no sense; but it is what it is.
Over the past month, my colleagues and I have been banging our collective canes against the walls, because the partying is too loud. My mood, in layman’s terms, has been extraordinarily dour, which in turn has made me despise clams, hams and trans-ams.
Nevertheless, several weeks ago I began allocating money to the long side, with moderate success. I nailed a few 20% winners and will nail another 15% winner tomorrow, thanks to the robust numbers out of MWW. My whole strategy is now based on defense; but that will change shortly.
Let me remind you all, I am still long term bearish and have vowed to use the language of a Prince, until we touch down on 10,000 again. Now, if that is my philosophy, why in the world would you ask me if I will sell VXX? Don’t do that, kind Sir, else I might need to “correct” you where you live, when asleep.
“The New Fly” is all about peace, harmony and helping others succeed, despite their natural tendencies to fail because of inferior gene pools.
Finally, I want to alert some of you FTK watchers that the company is in reach of a potential windfall, in the form of forced warrant conversion. Back in ’09, the company issued 7-8 million warrants, with a strike of $1.21, that can be “forced” to convert, if the stock trades 150% above said strike for 20 days. Think MVIS, old iBC’ers. In my experience, when carrots like that are within reach, somehow, someway (like magic), it gets done. In this case, that would mean $3+ for FTK, sometime between now and next year.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
fig first
frig second
I remember an old Star Trek episode where I am certain Kirk said “QE2 UP!” in response to a Klingon attack
http://www.entertonement.com/clips/bqsbsjzftx–Given-er-all-she's-got-captain
Fly you say “That will all change soon”, you don’t mean going long do you? I assume you mean you will get aggressive again. By the way “The New Fly” does not exist, end of story. The Real Fly will soon rise out of his Pineapple cocoon and turn into Horatio Clawhammer aka Plutonium Petey Pablo aka Senor Tropicana. So with all do respect, I don’t buy the bullshit about some New Fly.
Yours Truly,
qE2 aka POMO
The New Fly cordially disagrees and would like to remind you he knows where you live. He is not suggesting he would throw a vat of acid on you while asleep. He is only saying he knows where you live.
Indeud, The New Fly would avoid any activity resembling the following: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNkHheGw9MQ&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98V1fqaQHsA
No. More like this.
First we need to have the thanksgiving rally. I really like that ftk idea. I can think of a few others that have magically moved to the required pricepoint.
“After the rate of interest has fallen to a certain level, liquidity preference is virtually absolute in the sense that almost everyone prefers cash to holding a debt at so low a rate of interest. In this event, the monetary authority would have lost effective control.”
-John Maynard Keynes
Need I say more?
Speaking of W’s: Who remembers INTCW?
I do, I do.
Late ’97 or early ’98 from what I recall.
About the time I was half ass daytrading CPQ (Compaq Computer for the younger gen.).
That would be after it bought DEC (Digital Equipment Co., for the same youngsters).
Ah, Westboro, Ma … and then there was Prime too.
and Wang, I kid you not!
You kids are making me feel old. How about ASTA? my first home run.
>>…FTK… is in reach of a potential windfall, in the form of forced warrant conversion. Back in ‘09, the company issued 7-8 million warrants, with a strike of $1.21, that can be “forced” to convert, if the stock trades 150% above said strike for 20 days… In my experience, when carrots like that are within reach, somehow, someway (like magic), it gets done.<<
Well, let's see, Fly… The stock trades around $500,000 a day, and so far it has closed above $1.815 for exactly… "zero" days in a row. However, there's a reasonable chance that a couple of million bucks up front could push it to the low $1.80s and then an additional $10 million or so could hold it there for the requisite 20 days, so how badly do you want to play? (Of course, if I were holding the warrants and hadn't yet hedged them out– and it appears as if half of them or so haven't been– I'd be shorting stock out to you all day long at around a buck seventy-nine.
The stock need to close above $3, not $1.80. And, the short interest has decreased by 10% over the past 6 months.
I’ve played these convert deals before and they worked. See MVIS
flippe-floppe,
An opportune moment then to remind you that you still owe me $10 from a wager that was made and has been outstanding foe close to 4yrs now. Surely, a professional money manager, such as yourself, can afford to pay such a measly sum, if only for the sake of your pride.
jog on
duc
Hey Ducati. Long time no see.
Oh, sorry… I wrongly interpreted that as 150% *of* the strike price. No offense to your FTK, but $3 is *way* out of the money, and as an ex-sell-side guy who placed many similar deals, I can tell you that most of them never make it, so I hope that anyone who buys this stock does it for a much more fundamental reason than THAT.
P.S. I used to know MVIS *extremely* well and have even retained a single share as a continual reminder of the very valuable “tuition” I paid there, so if they managed to force a warrant conversion, it must have only been by managing to come up with a fresh series of bs “story stock” press releases. It’s much tougher for FTK– which, after all, is a “real company”– to pull off something like that.
All valid points. My experiences with converts, IMNR, MVIS come to mind, have been positive. However, the thesis behind the story is turn around, not faux stories to force conversion.
The big overhang is the 111 mill in debt, which is putable in 2013. They need to hash that out first, before the stock can be released from the dark cloud of potential default.
It’s funny that you mention IMMR, because I used to know that one extremely well, too (and made up most of my MVIS losses there). As I recall, Special Situations (and maybe a couple of other funds) bought that $20 million convert to finance the Sony lawsuit, and then when they won the suit… Jackpot!
Oh, wait… You wrote IMNR (Immune Response)… Different company… But IMMR did have one that converted.
I changed it. Yeah, it was IMNR, years ago.
Also know, the largest shareholders of the company are also the largest debt holders. But, the important facts are the company really is turning it around and will be cash flow positive by next qt.
Intcw were the intel warrants. But the real question is what happened when there was a panic about them. Wasnt intc halted or somthing right before expiration and all of the warrant holdets freaked out. Its all a little fuzzy..
flippe-floppe,
You are being somewhat disingeneous regarding MVIS warrants: you were of the opinion that the dilutive effect was going to be a positive for MVIS. Of course, it tanked. Which earned me, in part, my $10 wager. Now, time to pay-up olde chappe.
jog on
duc
I sold my MVIS above $4. And, prior to warrant conversion, I did sell much, but not all, of said warrants.
Back in the day when you claimed to own so many shares that you would have been required to register as a 5% holder of company stock – of course, there was no such filing.
Pay-up.
jog on
duc
Why would I need to file if the shares were held in indiv accounts? You do know the difference between pooled accounts and not, no?
I’ve paid for our bet many times over with time wasted on your comments.
flippe-floppe,
So, you, big-time professional money manager, when you execute a trade, duplicate said trade into 100, 500, etc individual accounts?
Classic.
Pay-up. Before I start charging you interest on 4yrs of welching.
jog on
duc
Incidentally, don’t you feel a fraud claiming reponsibility for Jeremy’s work in creating the PPT, after all, you are simply the marketing vehicle…no?
jog on
duc
FIG
The manner of which my trades are executed are none of your concern.
flippe-floppe,
Of course how you execute trades is an issue – when it goes directly to your credibility old chap.
Incidentally, don’t you feel a fraud claiming reponsibility for Jeremy’s work in creating the PPT, after all, you are simply the marketing vehicle…no?
jog on
duc
Dang, you are a clanging, brassy, cymbal.
What would you call a person such as yourself? I am trying hard to remain calm here and out of the woodwork, you come.
I believe santa claus aka god is sending me a sign
No. Ignore the duc. He’ll fly away for a while.
Not that i need to explain myself, but i created all ppt formulas. Jeremy coded them and is an immense asset to me.
flippe-floppe,
Nonsense.
In the early days of the PPT, you didn’t even take the trades thrown up by the algo’s. This is essentially because you [i] didn’t understand it [ii] didn’t have any faith in it.
jog on
duc
Duc,
As Director of Floor Operations for UBS (for over 20 years). I can speak perfectly as to how the fly executes trades.
However, executing a large block, regardless of issue or float, is a delicate matter and quite frankly a trade secret.
Now jog on before I shove a size 13 Testoni Norvegese in your fucking ear.
flippe-floppe,
I am your conscience old chap.
You are a fraud. On so many levels.
jog on
duc
Duc, please do not infuriate the Fly. I appreciate his website and blog more than you. As do many others. Go away.
same here.
I have used the ppt even before i put it out for retail. As time passes and improvements are made, i use it more and more. Claims to the contrary are simply ridiculous.
Fucking ducati. Next DD will show up. I swear to god if he comes back with his doom and gloom, Im putting my life savings into OTM calls.
DD is still trying to get his vette back from the title loan shop
Viper not Vette.
This new Fly scares me, where is the balance and order which once thrived here? Can’t wait till DOW 10K.
I can’t wait until election antics!
Bring back fire and brimstone, old testament Fly.
You’re right, this new Fly is unnerving. Hopefully, the Fly will be off to Romania for a mountain top retreat where he might be able to contact the ghost of Devil Dog and find a burning bush of 30 yr bonds
Sorry,
Embrace the new fly, like new coke, for the olde fly is dead.
fugacity.
I have never understood how a man of your eminent qualifications and pure skill could show the whole world your cards everyday on the worldwide internets……you do not strike me as a someone who suffers fools gladly so it has been fascinating to watch you develop ibc…..a magnet for so many fools…..I assumed PPT was banking enough coin for you to tolerate the blog beatings …… in any case I hope you continue to post your market concepts and trades as you really have no competition out there…..we are daily amused and informed by your reports……carry on Fly
yes yes!
Indued!
Thanks
Snoopy has gone mental. Go fuck an antler, duc.
Jog off a cliff, along with your credibility and web traffic,
puny
I second bonds thoughts.
I am sure the Fly has skin as thick as an elephant. You have to be to play this blogging game.
That Japanese number was so bad. If we get to 10k I don’t think it holds for very long. Nothing heads in a staight line but this country looks like its fiscally toast.
We will be tlaking about QE 10 by this time next year. Still can’t get over Bill Gorss’s piece. Sounds like he is ready to bail on this trainwreck.
“Ancient Aliens” is on the History HD channel right now! The Mayans had a rocket ship and the pyramids were child’s play.
Go read Ian Douglas’s amazing novel “Semper Mars” if you are into that. Personally I don’t buy it, but he is a historian who went hard sci-fi based on that premise leaving some books that are fun and fast moving. Great read.
Hey Fly
Is Japan the next sovereign shoe to drop?
My Classroom…Watching all of this, I wonder….do most know how messed up all of this and is playing it ala Soros….OR do they have no knowledge at all and think that we are doing great and really believe that AAPL and SNDK is undervalued? That we have a global copper, oil, nat gas shortage? …………It appears many don’t even care, they just watch the price, stock goes up, they buy, stock goes down they short…or rather the bots don’t care………………………………still trying to figure what the turning point is? It’s been baffling me for a very long time….what is the final straw???
I still can’t believe no one is seeing all of this….well I didn’t in 2008 but I was very new….can’t understand on CNBC though, so many are paid so much and have no idea what they are talking about….
You are a freaking idiot.
SNDK is really undervalued. Toss that shitty technicals out the windows and go look at its earnings in the past 6 quarters.
Since you are a goat fuucker, I will also add that GOOG is undervalued at this level.
Your classroom?
Yab….I see all of this as my classroom….the Market is my Teacher and all of you are my fellow students….many are my tutors….and just like school….Market grades me at every moment.
Sulphco, Inc. Announces Cancellation of Registered Direct Offering
what kind of company does this?
“lets just crash the stock price over 60% for fun then tell them we were joking”
Do you really need a list of those type of companies? I’m sure the collective could put one together. Sort of a stay away at all cost list.
From time to time VXX tempts me as a volatility play but then I pull up a comparison with VIX and that reminds me what a retarded piece of garbage that is.
I’m sure countless people already said this in the comments but what do I know, I’m just a new reader (and a nutter as a matter of fact).
PS: Fly, I hope you start cursing again soon. To go through these without a good cursing might be very unhelthy.
who is this el duc who shows up out of nowhere like some anti-superhero?? this place is weird.
It is forbidden to ask.
don’t quit goat herding…you suck!
Mww
Holy chit Fly got a flyer on MWW. Congrats!
I enjoyed vicegripping some balls in CSTR myself this delightful morning
First???
{looks wildly around}