“The Fly” has been preoccupied for the last two days expanding his investment horizons. When investing, it’s almost second nature to default to the same old names. There is a certain comfort one finds when trading a familiar stock. However, the downside to that is lack of fresh, innovative ideas. I’ve been very busy, utilizing the insanely incredible tools of The PPT, to identify growth at a reasonable price. For PPT users, you can see my screen criteria here.
The goal of my research is to toss in a few new names into my investment rituals. Moreover, I am designing a long term portfolio, for perusal, inside of The PPT. I am cognizant of the fact that some of you work as slaves for a living and do not have the time to trade like a degenerate OTB guy. You will find my long term portfolio to be, shall we say, “up to the highest standards known to God.”
As for today’s tape:
How gay do you feel now, making wild assertions about the market going up forever? I live to prove you cocksuckers wrong. Into the bell, I am quite comfortable with my positions and shall cut this post short, in order to get back to the important business of improving my financial life.
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FIG
Fly Is Gay
Have you noticed that MC Hammer and BMF beats were made by the same producer and sound very similar? I’m trying to figure out why Rawse would put out a classic CD with varying sounds only to have those back to back sounding almost exactly the same. Kinda wack.
F this boring market. Still making money, but slow money. I like that fast shit!
Drink a dollar, eat a dime
FTK rocking it last two days.
Nice Buns!! They must be yours!
yummy! :-p
Awesome news about the portfolio. Thanks for the tools boss
Out of my IOC…Thanks PPT (& C. Bennett)
Thanks Fly.
Fly- is it just me, or is that PPT link broken? For me, it comes back with 4245 matches.
http://ppt.ibankcoin.com/screener.php?fields_to_screen_for%5B%5D=fundamental_score|asset_scores_overview&fields_to_screen_for[]=industry_id|asset_profile&fields_to_screen_for[]=return_on_equity|asset_profile&fields_to_screen_for[]=short_as_perc_float|asset_profile&fields_to_screen_for[]=cash_per_share_over_price|asset_key_stats&fields_to_screen_for[]=dividend_yield|asset_key_stats&fields_to_screen_for[]=fpe|asset_key_stats&fields_to_screen_for[]=price_to_book|asset_key_stats&fields_to_screen_for[]=price_to_sales|asset_key_stats&fields_to_screen_for[]=quarterly_earnings_growth|asset_key_stats&fields_to_screen_for[]=quarterly_revenue_growth|asset_key_stats&reset=false&submit=Screen&des_id=154896
Thanks.
No it works. I am sifting through industries, going through compares.
So your link was just to give us a set up for filtering by many fields. Gotcha.
Thanks.
I will weed out 250 stocks from 4,000 using that. Then I will narrow it down to 50-100 names, with traditional research.
Nice, thank you Fly,
as I am on vacation,
for another two weeks,
and have little motivation,
to be innovative with regards to the market.
Fly, you write a lot of words but don’t say shit.
you are like a lost puppy these last few weeks.
duc is right about you?
I say plenty. You are just not listening.
What part of I am positioning for the market to fall in the fall don’t you get? Do you expect me to make wild one sided bets all the time? If so, you are better off reading Snoopy.
Charles Schultz was an agent of Satan.
one sided bets all the time? nah … you prefer to do fuck all and get all the gains from your longs blown by your VXX…. welcome to the new bull market, dear sir.
L-You are just simply wrong.
laz laz laz, silly laz
How gay do you feel now, making wild assertions about the market going up forever?
Who made these wild assertions? We must bring him before the magistrate!
I’m just hoping it wasn’t that oft-cited man made from organic matter that accompanied Dorothy down the yellow (gold)brick road.
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So you do not feel gay?
Great news.
Only a fuel (Inspector Clouseau-speak) would expect such a gigantic bull-run as we’ve experienced to continue w.out minor pullbacks. I don’t know of anyone (save your straw man) who’s of any different mind, no matter how bullish.
My take:
Today (and maybe even tomorrow) is the pause that refreshes. We’ve been due a rest for weeks now.
If you think, however, that this is the start of some paleolithic bear-tear, I would posit it is you who are being “fuelish.”
________________
Who cares?
(*)
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Here is the important thing — I made back half of my losses yesterday. I made some really stupid decisions yesterday and it cost me dearly.
With today’s moves, I am back on strategy and only suffered about a 3% total portfolio decline in the process. Not ideal, but tolerable and soon forgotten.
As of the close, I am back positioned net long per my timing system, 25% in TLT per decision mooose, and I’m holding just 1000 vxx shares as a counterweight to the complacency that is forming.
Happy to be back on plan with the damage mostly limited.
RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!!!!
NEWS FLASH: Dow loses 38 points after gaining almost 1100 in a month! The world is crashing to it’s knees!
Eggs-fuggin- ackly!
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LOL exactly. It’s called consolidation..
Bullish wins again.
You want “GARP”? Take a look at my DUSA: It’s growing revs 25% year with 80%+ gross margins. (It just reported this morning, and that growth wasn’t vs. a crappy 2009 comp; 2009 was +20% over 2008!) A company like this should sell for at least 3x run-rate revenue ($105 million) + the net cash ($18 million) + the NPV’d NOLs (around $5 million) = $128 million = $5/share. If a larger company with a built-in salesforce buys it, it could knock off a ton of SG&A and pay 4.5x to 5x revenue, which would be $6 to $7/share. It closed today @ $2.39. Here’s the earnings release:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DUSA-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-prnews-1018213533.html?x=0&.v=1
Made my list.
Total revenue went down $60K (0.6%) yet SG&A went up $730K (13%) QoQ, and SG&A was noticeably higher than the past few quarters. I like the idea/novelty of the product and could see them being popular but what caused the higher SG&A specifically?
The co. is also very levered to the performance of the Kerastick product that provides 90%+ of the revs. Looking over this prospect, not for me. Interesting though.
The revenue number that “counts” is Kerastick revenue, because that’s got the 88% gross margins. It was up sequentially from Q1 $7,973,000 vs. $7,802,000, and 35% year-over-year. I don’t know what you’re talking about re. SG&A: in Q1 2010 it was $6,076,963 and in Q2 2010 it was $5,385,051, so it was DOWN, not up. Here’s a relevant excerpt from the MD&A:
>>We expect marketing and sales costs for the full year 2010 to increase over 2009 levels, but to decrease as a percentage of revenues.<<
As to your last point, yes, it's a one-product company. However, this is the best treatment available for a very fast-growing problem, and it currently only has around 5% market share. However, the fact that it *is* "one product" is exactly why I think they'll get bought by a larger company with a built-in, multi-product derm salesforce; someone can come in here and buy a lot of growth at a very good price.
You’re right, lt. Yahoo Finance didn’t update their income statement page. I was reading Q4 ’09 to Q1 ’10. Apologies.
The other problem I have concerns liquidity, it’s low despite having a low beta. To me, this stock is essentially a synthetic call option with a roughly 3:1 risk/reward payoff depending on your position size and exit price where your delta in a sense is Kerastick earnings and your premium is takeover potential. For that risk and unknown timeline for prospect of takeover, I’m passing.
That Rick Ross song iz banging BTW
word
For the longer term portfolio: don’t you think instead of looking for growth you might consider value as it is inversely correlated to growth/momentum and given a longer term horizon one would want to mitigate excess volatility and stick to value companies selling at a discount?
Of course there as several ways to shear a sheeple but long term cos with lower growth or constant predictable growth with dividends or large amounts of cash on their balance sheet (possible dividend providers) within industries with ancillary growth segments may provide a nice base for majority asset allocation.
On a pure price to book assessment I’ve seen many insurance, asset management, oil drilling and exploration firms in my screens amongst some with interesting news stories that have beaten down their price. I’m curious to see how you’ll construct this portfolio.
I am putting both into consideration. However, the focus is on growth, albeit cheap growth.
Attention small plebs:
If your stated goal on this forum is to convince me to pile into equities, following the best July ever, 1,000 points higher, you are wasting your time. Moreover, if you are of the belief that stocks are going much higher, God bless and I wish you luck. However, do not assume that I need any input from you, as it is more of a thorn in my side than help.
-Management
It is funny to hear everyone offer the Fly advice… they come to the Fly’s blog to tell him how he should invest his large amounts of coin.
Some people seem to think this is a Dear Abby in reverse blog.
Earth to Eager Sycophant — It’s a discussion area, this here comment section.
If everyone followed the Head Lemming off the cliff every time, this might as well be that clueless asshat Timmah’s blog, with the only people left being sycophantic gerbils offering no value, but plenty of “Attaboys.”
I think an airing of differing views is healthy, and in fact, a great liability hedge as well.
That said, if you don’t want to hear my opinion, scroll on by, Dionne Warwick.
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I would not consider him a sycophant, especially considering he has been against my position for weeks now. You should seriously consider refraining from name calling on my blog. That job is mine.
Plus anyway, you have your own sycophants to insult on your blog.
He was kissing your ass in that particular post — hence “sycophant.”
And I realize he has been agreeing w. me, but in that post it seemed he was commenting on my lack of sycophantism in this particular regard.
…phantasm?
And please, even my own relatives give me shit on my blog, and I have my own personal (never banned) Under-bridge Troll.
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Too bad the reality is that The Fly bans the majority of people who disagree with him while letting the idiotic sycophants type freely with inane comments.
That’s not exactly fair either. He only bans people who make rude comments about his wife and/or family.
You can disagree w. impunity here, you merely have to bear the opprobrium when shown to be wrong.
This is NOT Timmah’s yes-man blog, which is why it’s ten times better.
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I voice many “comments” that may or may not agree with the Fly. I was referring to all the people who post direct advice to the Fly.
Like after Fly goes on a rant and then they say, “hey Fly, I think you should cutback your exposure to VXX and reallocate into XYZ” – most can’t even spell properly on this site – lol
Sorry, if I offended you Jake… I’z am verrry sarry.
NP — I may have misinterpreted and jumped to conclusions unwarranted. Sometimes it’s hard to read w.out watching facial expressions.
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Now that last entry was sycophangasmic! …even ended it with baby talk to deferentially stroke Jake’s gint.
.
You know your audience.
^^ See, Fly? My douchebag troll even follows me over here, sometimes. ^^
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“douchebag troll”
Jeesh, can’t kid around with Jake without being called hurtful names.
Anyway, thanks for proving the point.
You’re most welcome, leech-like appendage.
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“douchebag troll”…heh.
I like it.
“leech-like appendage”…a close second.
Fuck off
Well, shall you beg to differ, enlighten us as to the “why’s”. Head lemming is “head” for a reason. Namely, he is endowed with superior cheeze-sniffing abilities and trap-evasion skills.
If he leads you over a cliff, who cares?
I’ve enumerated my reasons for being bullish here many times. I imagine your refusal to absorb any of that is more cognitive dissonance than reading incomprehension.
But then again, you are my “tell.”
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Well, I looked through your recent posts once again, and, frankly, only found cherry-picked names, selected based on your own chart analysis and PPT. Why exactly are you bullish? GDP slowdown means nothing? Increased gap in new sales to inventories also doesn’t matter? Private consumption rate of growth in line with new sub-trend GDP (but not more) will also not be reflected in company’s earnings? And don’t get me started about Europe, which was doomed to disintegration just a few weeks ago, but now this fact is conveniently forgotten in light of “strong figures from Germany”… I read lots of opinions on this site, but it’s only Fly who gives “why’s” for his views and actions. Your posts are less informative, and I sometimes ask for clarifications. Don’t feel offended. I’m dispassionate about it and generally love contrarian well-substantiated arguments.
Cherry pick?
I couldn’t be more macro.
And overall inventories are quite low — lower even than in March of 2009.
What happened in Europe a month ago is exactly why I’m bullish through the elections.
I’m sure if you’re resourceful you can find yourself a dollar chart around my blog somewhere.
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this fact is conveniently forgotten in light of “strong figures from Germany”
What is even more absurd is Germany was never the problem to begin with. Amazing that as you say, Europe was headed down the drain but now all is well. Simply because a country that was never in trouble is doing OK?
I will defer to the more astute market peeps, but could this be a replay of the Lehman collapse? In other words the world is going to end for about 2 months, then everything is all fine and dandy again for another couple of months. All a precursor for the last big push down.
Not saying we go back to March 09 lows by any means, rather when everyone is done “summering in the Hamptons” we head lower.
glad to hear you did allright today huggie bear…since the markets just started to take profits..
were the markets down today ??? i haven’t looked yet
The Fly is God. DJIA The Falling Axe pattern working perfectly. I see a bullish stock leg formation forming right now. We will challenge DJIA 10920 then 11258 in this run.
: plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose
Keep it simple folks
Big Ups to the Fly
Lots of rocks and few diamonds in the comment section. I like to see how you are positioned. What you bought/sold and why. Too much crab amongst the words of wisdom.
Anyway I’m not here to make friends just cash and I’m here to read what Fly post. Always enjoyable.
Position end of day:
TZA 20%
TNA 28%
VXX 6%
I continously adjust throughout the day and takes profit when index makes wild swings.
How come you decided to have long two opposite 3x ETFs for hedge, both with considerable time decay?
I like to always keep some TZA on hand in case of a another flashtrade down plus I have no doubt that we are going to see a new low of the year sooner or later. But I think we could still see some more up-side and take out 1140-1150 so the TNA is a hedge against this anticipated up-side. Got 48% cash on hand to push either way.
Appropriate handle,
Thank you.
Love,
Your Broker
A Schizo market need schizo trading. Playing ping pong throughout the day works like a charm. Friday the market went up and down all day but barely moved an inch at the end of the day, but my profit moved a yard.
this is as Shizo as it gets..
Nah, I think that this might be, though.
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this is no positioning…. unless you trade $10 roll…
PS. adjust or die.
Actually, i do not discriminate in my bannings. I am proud to admit being quite adamant against freedom in this blog, not due to thin skin, but the pleasure that i find in suppressing it.
I would be proud to win a banning contest against timmay, for i have banned more than 300 people here since inception. Reasons range from dissent to committing heinous acts of grammatical atrocities. If you desire free speech, go to twitter, fuckface
There’s more than enough liquidity and buying power to take this market over Dow 11,500 in the next two months. The question is, will it come out of the woodwork at the blessed time?
I am betting yes,…..especially on the EMs and large multi-nationals, though I’m hedging that bet somewhat, using some of your aforementioned methods, just not as copiously.
On another note, 30.50% of the float of XLE is short interest.
Portfolio is 69% long at this point.
Good night, sir, and make your own good luck.
I Agree. I think there are to many hopeful bears out there. The downside will come but before we drop we will see some chop and a hop. It rimes so it has to be right. The algos will take us up where we don’y belong, so be a patient bear and go with the flow. If not you will be short squeeze fuel. Stay balanced and trade the chop. Good night and good luck tomorrow.
Prove us wrong?? youve been wrong about this whole rally, selling short way below the 50 day MA, holding onto VXX, a losing position. – You have what I like to call a convinient memory. – If you were RIGHT, you would have made halla more cheese, than you did with one foot in one camp and one in the other, thats weak my friend.
I am not short anything. Second, i bought the lows of the rally, as indicated by ppt scores.
I have been long vxx for two weeks, jackass. Give it time. All i do here is prove you fools wrong.