Prepare to be Tricked

Going into the closing hours, the tape is looking bullish to me. Despite a plethora of negative headwinds, namely BCS, AA and BAC, the bulls are letting it all hang out—bidding up “good banks” like JPM and GS.

Personally, I’m not a fan of any bank. However, there is a perception that a small handful of banks are “safe.” Whenever the market catches a bid, those fuckers springboard higher.

However, do not ignore the ramifications of BAC‘s diving share price. After all, they still are this nations largest bank.

With my money, I added to my EEV, SMN and short XOM positions. However I did so with very little conviction. If you’ve been following my trading habits for more than 6 months, you know that I like to “leg into” positions, as opposed to diving in—idiot style.

As for my shorts, I covered my entire NOV short, south of $27, for a quick 10%+ gain. And, I covered 1/4th of my KIM position, south of $16.70.

My goal is to keep a 30% cash position, until I am absolutely convinced of the near term market direction. For now, it makes sense to take quick gains and patiently wait for good entry points.

Nonetheless, I am not looking for long positions right now. My hunch is to play the downside, by waiting for good entries. In other words, the potential risk to the market far outweighs the rewards, again in my opinion.

UPDATE: I sold out of 75% of my AKAM position, for a fucking loss, around $14.

Comments »

24 is a show for morons. Really, I know you fuckers like that anti-terrorist shtick, since the terrorists are out to get us and all. But that show makes The A-Team look like a tony award winning Broadway play.

Don’t look now, but BAC is about to hit single digits. Do you sense another bank panic? I do.

Fun fact: When FDR was first inaugurated, the market crashed and the U.S. was forced to declare a “bank holiday.”

Why is YHOO still a relevant topic? That company is homeless man in the winter funny.

Recent IQ tests indicate “The Fly” is still smarter than you, with a score north of 150.

Aside from PPT, the Godly folks from iBankCoin have a big surprise for the internets, and will unveil such said surprises by February.

Is Jim Goldman a midget?

Only terrorists or terrorist sympathizers buy oil stocks. Just saying.

Don’t look now, GE is fucked!

UPDATE: I bought 2,000 EEV @ $56.40.

UPDATED Shit: How does CNBC get away with being non-objective reporters? I mean, if any registered rep said half the things that Dennis Kneale, Cramer, Kudlow and others espouse on national t.v., they’d catch a swift kick in the ass by FINRA and/or SEC. They consistently hurt investors by giving bad advice and do so with reckless abandon.

For example: on Friday, as the market was hitting the lows of the day, Dennis Kneale kept saying the market was going to close green. WTF is that?

If some average schmuck took Kneale’s advice on Friday, not only did he get crushed by the end of the day; he also got hammered into the fucking ground on Monday.

Totally unnecessary and egregious.

Comments »

GE just got tossed into a highly trafficked highway, yet the market is green. And, JPM moved their earnings up. My guess, they have something good to say about the quarter; hence the stock is up.

Oil and gas stocks are up, in what can only be described as comedy—since they (energy stocks) are fucked either way. I swear, seeing XOM trade near $80, while oil is in the 30’s, is a fucking joke. Nonetheless, 50% of getting a trade right is having the patience to work through the fuckery, if you know what I mean.

Thus far, for the day, I nibbled at SMN and I shorted more XOM, just shy of $78.

Despite promising on a stack of super holy bibles and declaring to never trade 200% and 300% inverse etf’s, I am trading them anyway. They way I see it, I’m just doing it on a temporary basis. You know, like how a crack addict just wants to taste the crack pipe one more time.

I promise, after this round in the inverse funhouse, “The Fly” will take them off his monitor and never look at the magain. As you know, “The Fly” is a man of great integrity and discipline.

In closing, this market is for the birds. Go ahead, buy the dips—in asshole fashion. At the end of the day, you’re just borrowing my money. I’ll be taking it back from you in short order.

Top picks: Short XOM, SMN

Comments »

Boy, I’d really hate being net long right now. I really, really would feel uncomfortable—no joke.

Listen to this tune, while reading the article below! Thank you, good Sirs.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yIail5yCvI&feature=related 450 300]

China’s Exports Fall by Most Since 1999 on Recession (Update3)

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — China’s exports fell the most in almost a decade in December as the deepening global recession cut demand for the nation’s toys, clothes and electronics.

Shipments dropped 2.8 percent, the customs bureau said on its Web site today. That compares with a 21.7 percent gain a year earlier. Exports grew 17.2 percent for all of 2008, down from 25.7 percent in 2007.

Waning export demand has led to protests by fired factory employees, an Exodus of 600,000 migrant workers from the manufacturing hub of Guangdong, and an estimated urban unemployment rate of more than 9 percent. Premier Wen Jiabao pledged Jan. 11 to add to the nation’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package to create jobs and avoid social instability.

“There is little hope that exports will recover this year, as developed economies remain mired in recessions,” said Sun Mingchun, a Hong Kong-based economist at Nomura Holdings. “Textile, steel and electronic exports are the most badly hurt.”

The yuan fell to 6.8390 against the dollar from yesterday’s close of 6.8370, as of 1:38 p.m. in Shanghai. The CSI 300 Index of stocks declined 1.8 percent.

Exports to the European Union, China’s biggest export market, fell 3.5 percent in December from a year earlier. Shipments to the U.S. slipped 4.1 percent.

Tumbling Profits

Profits have tumbled for manufacturers with operations in China, such as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., the world’s biggest contract maker of electronics. Hisense Group, a state- owned air conditioner and refrigerator maker, has reported plunging orders.

The export decline was less than the 5.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 16 economists.

Imports plunged 21.3 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $39 billion, the second-biggest on record.

Achieving the government’s 8 percent economic growth target for creating jobs and preventing social unrest will be “exceptionally arduous,” Liu Mingkang, the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in Beijing yesterday. Speaking in Switzerland, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said he too saw a risk of missing the goal.

Growth may slow to 5 percent this year, less than half of the 11.9 percent expansion in 2007, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Plc. That would be the weakest pace since 1990 and the aftermath of the Tiananmen Square crackdown. Growth was 9 percent in the third quarter of last year.

Borrowing Costs

The central bank has cut interest rates five times in three months, reducing the key one-year lending rate to 5.31 percent, and allowed lenders to set aside smaller reserves.

China is also aiding exporters by curbing currency gains that would make their products more expensive in overseas markets, restricting the yuan to a 0.5 percent advance against the dollar in the second half of last year after a 6.6 percent increase in the first.

The nation’s currency policy and trade surplus may exacerbate tensions with the U.S., which last month complained to the World Trade Organization that China was using prohibited subsidies to boost exports from apparel to high-tech electronics.

President-elect Barack Obama should press China to allow the yuan to appreciate because weakness in the currency is hurting U.S. jobs and manufacturing, according to Professor Peter Morici, from the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.

Rising Unemployment

Shipments may fall 10 percent in 2009, Nomura’s Sun estimated, dragging down economic growth by 2.5 percent points.

The state-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences forecast 9.4 percent urban unemployment by the end of 2008, to rise in 2009 as exports and production cool.

The central bank will keep the yuan trading within a narrow range against the dollar in 2009 to help exporters, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report yesterday.

“This is viewed as a critical issue for trade development in the face of unprecedented uncertainties in the global economy,” wrote Helen Qiao and Song Yu, Hong Kong-based economists.

The decline in exports was the biggest since April 1999.

Comments »

With pomp and purpose, fat men decorated in pretentious garments sashayed within the city walls, buying up all available provisions for the upcoming soiree. Their wives were overwrought with delight, as the 3rd annual “party for the privileged” began.

Their host was a curious man, with a baritone voice. He wore a festive mask and carried golden balls the size of grapefruits, in an elaborate briefcase, for no apparent reason.

Amidst a cavalcade of ostentatious costumes, the host grew wearisome. Loudly, he yelled out “YO, FUCKTARD,” in a tone that struck the audience in a most terrifying/harrowing manner. Lesser men were submerged with fear, afraid of getting entangled in some sort of uphill scuffle with the masked man—who carried golden balls the size of grapefruits, in an elaborate briefcase—for no apparent reason.

Needless to say, they fled the scene in a most expeditious manner.

Neatly decorated women gawked at the masked man through their monocles, amazed by what they saw him do next.

In what can only be described as “imbecilic senselessness,” the masked man, with the bullying voice fit for a barbarous ruffian, jumped into a florid cannon made from solid gold, which was laced with decorative silver jesters and harlequins, then proceeded to launch himself, mind you, into the adjacent acreage—which was replete with “leprechaun green” stringed beans.

So goes the story of the masked man.

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYJ-B8Mnd8c&feature=channel 450 300]

This one goes out to the Jakester.

Comments »

President Obama must have Count Dracula on his fucking brain, when he states 1 trillion dollars will produce 4 million jobs. Hell, if that’s the case, why stop there?

Let’s spend 2 trillion or 4 trillion. Or, how about we spend 10 trillion dollars? Using Obama’s Sesame Place math, with 10 trillion dollars we can produce 40 million jobs!

Gyeah!

As you know, “The Fly” was made richer today, with various positions catapulting the values of his accounts to new highs. You fuckers can only dream of having a slither of my investing skill sets.

My inverse etf’s, which include REW, EEV, SMN, SRS, FAZ, ERY and DUG, shot multiple bulls in the head today. In addition, my short positions in XOM, KIM, NOV, VNO and HANS, made most of you look stupid.

When the value of life, as a whole, is analyzed, “The Fly” leads a better one than you. Cordially, he opines on the daily events of the stock market/economy, while making asinine amounts of coin in the market. It’s a funny/hilarious thing: I cannot fucking lose—scientifically of course.

Now, you may try to beat me, through various stock picking methods. However, I am sure you realise [sic] by now that HORATIO CLAWHAMMER is well capable of beating your brains out, via surgical nuclear bomb strikes on your portfolios. And, of course, he is not to be fucked with.

If you find your little portfolios in an egregiously flaccid state, you are well deserving of incurring such said losses, for Senor Tropicana never loses. Hence, the punishment for betting against living stock Gods is, unfortunately, distributed to you.

UPDATE: Indeed.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOPF0S7Hss4 450 300]

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2Zvz1v7Hig 450 300]

Indeed.

Comments »

With the market throwing refrigerators on the heads of those who are long Obama stimulus plays, I thought it would be “nice” of me to pile on here and offer up some “loose toothed” short sales.

As China slowly but surely slips into recession, basic resource names will get crushed, under a heap of “clown debt.” As I’ve said before, only assholes buy infrastructure plays, in the midst of a global recession.

China is one giant GM, making a bunch of shit that no one wants or can afford. They are forced to keep expensive subsidies in place, while making sure crazy eyed factory workers keep their jobs. It is an economic structure made from a mixture of seaweed and shit. It will fail.

The following stocks can be shorted, in between snacks:

RTP, MT, DOW, SNP, CHK, RIG, CNQ, APC, FCX and EP.

All of the above names have mountains of debt and negative cash per share ratios. In a tight credit environment and depreciating commodity prices, all of the above names, as a point in fact, will get bowled on by “space alien magicians” in plutonium powered time machines, during 2009.

Trade accordingly.

NOTE: CNBC is a fucking joke with their Madoff controversy reporting.

Comments »

No more insults.

Senor Tropicana is all about sunshine, crack pipes and apple pie. He is as happy as a hooker on a vacation day.

Reacting to the tape, I took some losses in a variety of names, namely C, FAS, TBT and a little AKAM. And, I booked a 6 point profit in SSG.

Essentially, my goal is to reduce my long exposure, which currently stands at about 8%.

In addition, I bulked up on some shorts, via EEV and SMN. And, I shorted a little more HANS, just south of $32.

At this moment in time, there are lots of good shorts out there, setting up for the taking. From CHK to X to POT, stocks look ripe to fall.

However, at the same time, men with large bow ties and clown shoes are recommending caution, at realmoney.com. This alerts me and as a result chagrins me—for those fuckers are always wrong.

Please, prove me wrong.

Aside from tossing over ripe bananas at my trader/servants desk, “The Fly” will spend the entirety of his day planning his next kill. Presently, I possess a 25% cash position.

Comments »