Boy, I’d really hate being net long right now. I really, really would feel uncomfortable—no joke.
Listen to this tune, while reading the article below! Thank you, good Sirs.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yIail5yCvI&feature=related 450 300]China’s Exports Fall by Most Since 1999 on Recession (Update3)
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on TwitterJan. 13 (Bloomberg) — China’s exports fell the most in almost a decade in December as the deepening global recession cut demand for the nation’s toys, clothes and electronics.
Shipments dropped 2.8 percent, the customs bureau said on its Web site today. That compares with a 21.7 percent gain a year earlier. Exports grew 17.2 percent for all of 2008, down from 25.7 percent in 2007.
Waning export demand has led to protests by fired factory employees, an Exodus of 600,000 migrant workers from the manufacturing hub of Guangdong, and an estimated urban unemployment rate of more than 9 percent. Premier Wen Jiabao pledged Jan. 11 to add to the nation’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package to create jobs and avoid social instability.
“There is little hope that exports will recover this year, as developed economies remain mired in recessions,” said Sun Mingchun, a Hong Kong-based economist at Nomura Holdings. “Textile, steel and electronic exports are the most badly hurt.”
The yuan fell to 6.8390 against the dollar from yesterday’s close of 6.8370, as of 1:38 p.m. in Shanghai. The CSI 300 Index of stocks declined 1.8 percent.
Exports to the European Union, China’s biggest export market, fell 3.5 percent in December from a year earlier. Shipments to the U.S. slipped 4.1 percent.
Tumbling Profits
Profits have tumbled for manufacturers with operations in China, such as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., the world’s biggest contract maker of electronics. Hisense Group, a state- owned air conditioner and refrigerator maker, has reported plunging orders.
The export decline was less than the 5.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 16 economists.
Imports plunged 21.3 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $39 billion, the second-biggest on record.
Achieving the government’s 8 percent economic growth target for creating jobs and preventing social unrest will be “exceptionally arduous,” Liu Mingkang, the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in Beijing yesterday. Speaking in Switzerland, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said he too saw a risk of missing the goal.
Growth may slow to 5 percent this year, less than half of the 11.9 percent expansion in 2007, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Plc. That would be the weakest pace since 1990 and the aftermath of the Tiananmen Square crackdown. Growth was 9 percent in the third quarter of last year.
Borrowing Costs
The central bank has cut interest rates five times in three months, reducing the key one-year lending rate to 5.31 percent, and allowed lenders to set aside smaller reserves.
China is also aiding exporters by curbing currency gains that would make their products more expensive in overseas markets, restricting the yuan to a 0.5 percent advance against the dollar in the second half of last year after a 6.6 percent increase in the first.
The nation’s currency policy and trade surplus may exacerbate tensions with the U.S., which last month complained to the World Trade Organization that China was using prohibited subsidies to boost exports from apparel to high-tech electronics.
President-elect Barack Obama should press China to allow the yuan to appreciate because weakness in the currency is hurting U.S. jobs and manufacturing, according to Professor Peter Morici, from the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.
Rising Unemployment
Shipments may fall 10 percent in 2009, Nomura’s Sun estimated, dragging down economic growth by 2.5 percent points.
The state-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences forecast 9.4 percent urban unemployment by the end of 2008, to rise in 2009 as exports and production cool.
The central bank will keep the yuan trading within a narrow range against the dollar in 2009 to help exporters, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report yesterday.
“This is viewed as a critical issue for trade development in the face of unprecedented uncertainties in the global economy,” wrote Helen Qiao and Song Yu, Hong Kong-based economists.
The decline in exports was the biggest since April 1999.
“We could see five to 10 million construction workers without a job [in the next few months].”
http://www.nationalpost.com/related/topics/story.html?id=1170105
china has been a fucking scam for the past decade.
fuck them. i hope team goldilocks takes a kung pao to the face.
hmm…blackrock evidently agrees lol
Blackstone’s GSO Said to Close Asian Investment Desk (Update1)
Email | Print | A A A
By Patricia Kuo and Bei Hu
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — GSO Capital Partners LP, Blackstone Group LP’s $25 billion credit hedge fund, plans to close its Asia investment desk after failing to find attractive opportunities in the region, two people familiar with the matter said.
GSO intends to relocate Hong Kong-based Asia-Pacific head Tim Donahue, Managing Director Sanjeev Khemlani, Associate Angad Banga and Vice President Abhimanyu Prakash to London or New York, from where they can invest in Asia when conditions improve, said the people, who declined to be identified because the information is private.
New York-based GSO hasn’t bought any Asian bonds or loans since it opened its Hong Kong office in September because it believes prices are too high, the people said. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse pushed the price of U.S. and European debt below that of Asia, which has more regulatory and legal risk that needs to be compensated, they said.
Blackstone, run by Stephen Schwarzman, bought GSO last year for as much as $930 million to expand investments in distressed assets including leveraged loans. In December it said it will liquidate its Distressed Securities Fund, giving clients the option to move their money to GSO, as it seeks to cut costs amid the global credit freeze.
U.S. corporate default rates rose to their highest level since May 2002 last month, according to Standard & Poor’s. The extra yield investors demand to own Asian corporate dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries more than doubled from the end of August to 8.5 percentage points yesterday, JPMorgan’s Asia Credit Index shows.
Distressed Debt
GSO, founded in 2005 by Bennett Goodman, Tripp Smith and Doug Ostrover, has more than 210 employees in New York, London, Los Angeles, Houston and Hong Kong, according to Blackstone’s Web site. The fund focuses on investments in leveraged loans, distressed assets, mezzanine debt and credit derivatives, the Web site shows.
Debt becomes distressed when investors think a borrower may fail to make payments on its obligations. Distressed debt managers typically seek to profit by buying assets at below their face value, providing high-yield financing that could give rights to equity and opportunities to restructure companies before selling them at a higher value.
GSO will continue to raise money from investors in Asia even after closing its regional investment desk, the people said. Some of the investment team may choose to stay in Asia, they said.
Peter Rose, a spokesman for Blackstone, wasn’t immediately available for comment outside business hours in New York today.
To contact the reporters for this story: Patricia Kuo in Hong Kong at [email protected]; Bei Hu in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: January 13, 2009 02:51 EST
One World Government?
One World Currency?
If the market deals us a “Queen of Diamonds” or any Diamonds I will “bet heavier” on the shorts.
These international bearish developments may be the card the Bears just need.
-gio-
This article points to nothing more than the fact that I sold FXP at $37 ’cause it was fucking “broken.” I buy FXP tomorrow and Mao comes back in a golden rickshaw to lead his people to the Promised Land (New Jersey) in a 25 Year Plan of Peaceful Prosperity.
DevilDog – My ring finger is longer than my index finger. Double check your math.
I find it highly humorous that there is a link to some porn in a comment on the PG-Video-posting-page:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/posting-videos-shit/
The ripple effect of reduced imports is what is scary for the rest of Asia and indeed Australia.
It was not so long ago Australia was announcing they were going to avoid the recession.
DD & Anton
That just makes both of you gay.
http://www.longringfingeredhomos.com
Short bus
there’s no way Aust. will avoid a recession. although it would have been far better if the fucking socialist arse holes weren’t running government.
The Bush Doctrine/Legacy
Justin A. Frank is a clinical professor in the Department of Psychiatry at the George Washington University Medical Center and a teaching analyst at the Washington Psychoanalytic Institute. He is a regular contributor to The Huffington Post and author of Bush on the Couch: Inside the
Psychiatrist Justin Frank, author of Bush on the Couch: Inside the Mind of the President, says the trail of destruction wrought by Bush over the last eight years is the direct consequence of handing a man with a destructive personality profile tremendous power.
That’s from your link juice.
Really the amount of shit people- lefties- heap on this guy is beyond all reason. Did you even bother to read the swill, Juice? The fucking idiot professor often writes of the Huffington post- that well known right wing e-rag.
the ted spread is 98 basis points today which means it’s basically collapsed. The 3 month libor is 109 points.
If the stock market is falling it isn’t falling because the credit markets are hugely tight anymore as they’re not.
does any of this matter anymore or is the market totally focused on other things?
hmmmm …. we are all in the funnel ? bet git too crowded for a day or two ???
Bernanke on bloomberg…afraid of whatever hairbrained scheme they are cooking up now
This Ted spread, libor move down has me thinking that since spreads have gone out in Eurotrashland today you short the shit out of the Euro and the pound especially with the news that Spain and soon the rest of the PIGS are going to be downgraded.
I’ve been short for a few days and added to the pos selling more of the fucking pound that belongs down at 1 and the creepy euro that deserves to live at par and no higher.
“President-elect Barack Obama should press China to allow the yuan to appreciate because weakness in the currency is hurting U.S. jobs and manufacturing, according to Professor Peter Morici, from the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.”
Yeah right,like that’s going to happen.
Bernanke seems to think printing money will be non-inflationary and is trying to explain how that will work when they contract the money supply. How to contract…pay interest on reserves…
FUUUUCCK
US trade balance crashes in the living room at $40 bill. Expected around 51 bill.
This is really fucking interesting as the trade the street has been touting is to be long the yen ag the doll. If the US isn’t buying anything from the Japanese and there’s a lessening of credit problems in the US not even the Japanese are going to be buying the Yen. Add the fact that this trade result could spook the shit out of the stupid BOJ and I reckon you may actually dip the toe in the water and sell the yen rather than buy it as they may actually start to intervene.
Can’t edit from the iPhone
O’man is a freaking idiot or he didn’t see the trade balance today. i hope he starts saying slightly more intelligent things or he just lets Larry do all the talking on economic issues.
STFU O.
Put a period after work and get rid of “when they”. The Fed will put up more dough and/or guarantees as needed. Odd no?
More regulation coming as “firms too big to fail” took too many risks. Welcome to the United States of Socialist America
People need to go to jails where they get ass fucked not play golf for white collar crime. That would be a good start.
Bernanke = Liar.
Don’t listen to the mutant alien lizard central banker, it’ll numb your brain.
you have to listen to him, Scum. he’s got the levers.
The idea that the Government controls the money supply is wrong.The only thing the Government can control is the physical money supply.. Money is created by the private sector through leverage and by nature of the floating rate exchange system
Use the “Secret” Fly…think positive….the market will rally back to 905-920 S&P over the next 2 weeks…..can you not see it ?
Well that’s wrong, Moe .
The government controls the money supply under fiat…. period.
Evidence the government controls is seen through the TARP in that if they didn’t recap the banks there would have been commercial bank failures and depositors money would have been lost money reducing the money supply.
The deposit guarantee is also another example of how they can control it.
Those are side issues though as the monetary base is the soup that creates high powered money which normally gets distributed through the banking system and gets leveraged up 12:1 by the banks.
No, the floating exchange system has no effect on the money supply. Every private buyer has a private seller so unless money is moving from/to the Fed there is no effect or next to no effect on the money supply.
From the Fed and to the fed is what effects the money supply through its open market operations.
The far more complex reality of the money supply is the electronic money supply that is created by capital inflows and banks. Under a floating exchange rate, money is created by the private sector and no central bank can prevent it. For example if you have abuilding and sell it for 1 million to another citizen, the money supply is not effected. However if you sell it to a European, something changes. The European will bring in Euros that is converted by a bank to dollars without restriction and now that $1 million is given to you for the building. You now have $1 miilion dollars to spend domestically that didn’t previously exist.
SRS on the move again
No No no, Moe. No no no.
You sell a building to the Euro for $1 mill. He has Euros which he sells to a buyer and gets dollars. The net effect is zero on the money supply as a private buyer and seller in an fx transaction has no effect.
Recall what I said. The only thing that effects the money supply is open market operations of the Fed though the repo market. Money into the Fed reduces the money supply money out increases it. That’s it.
I bought some banks just now. Wish me luck. The relatively easier credit conditions should help the banksters.
I’m all ears for an explanation on why this thing (HUM) is trading undr $35.00 (or, less than 6x next year’s earnings).
As previously disclosed, on January 13, 2009, officers of Humana Inc. (the “Company”) will be meeting with investors and analysts at an industry conference. During the meetings, the Company intends to address its prospects and performance and will reaffirm the Company’s earnings per share guidance for the full year 2008 of $3.80 to $3.90, and for the full year 2009 of $5.90 to $6.10. In addition, the Company expects gross sales for Medicare Advantage for 2009 to be higher than previously forecast, while gross sales for stand-alone Prescription Drug Plans are expected to be in line with previous projections. The Company is continuing to receive January 2009 disenrollment data for all Medicare plans from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (“CMS”), consistent with historical disenrollment reporting patterns from CMS. Initial data indicates higher attrition than previously forecast in both Medicare Advantage and stand-alone Prescription Drug Plans. For 2009, the Company still anticipates net additions of 25,000 to 75,000 members to its Medicare Advantage program, but expects the decline in membership in the Company’s stand-alone Prescription Drug Plans to be higher than previously forecast.
_________
yup, too many in the funnel for now.
Scared with what the O’man is gunna do, jake?
——–
Sold out of my dolls in Euro and the pound. It looked like it’s hard to break through 1.3200 as we tried that a few times. If it gets through there I’ll sell again.
Now long dollar yen with a very close stop loss.
Bloomberg says the Smith Barney deal is driven by Treasury.
Who is C’s biggest holder?
The Treasury.
And they know that C will report shit numbers, hence the pressure to sell SB now, before the price drops even further.
Fly, did you sell any of your shorts (iETFs) this morning or still holding them?
J-
Let me guide you to the right spot … here you go dickhead:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
FLY you asshole riddle me this.
… Well answer my question anyway.
My 30% long/70% cash no hedge portfolio is up 2% or so over the past 7 days. Do you think I’m about to get deballed along with a whole host of complacent jerks, or does the strength in certain stronger names suggest we might not go down in a straight line from here and could reverse and rip into expiration.
Currently I’m long AVAV, VCLK, LOPE, AIPC
Lady Guenevere Says:
Come on guys……
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yop62wQH498&feature=related
January 12th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
—————————————————–
I bought some TNA towards the end of day (28.50) yesterday which is doing nice today. I also bought some DIG (27.46)yesterday after hours doing good today.
Of course I wont hold these for very long as the rain could come back at any moment.
.
.
Done for the AM. Thanks SMH.
Financials will take it all down.
WTF , Fly would not have sold nothing. +43c on the QQQQs etc etc is totally within his tolerance.
Ooooww…whats with all the “flybrows” on the ground? Did the oil shorts get theirs punched off?
Juice,
The man’s leaving in a couple of days, where will you go to vent your Derangement Syndrome after that?
Get help.
___________
fool
You call fly an asshole and expect a nice reply from someone who hates people?
Good luck.
Here’s a 100;1 bet that if he even says anything it will be to tell you to fuck off.
Don (Donny), you fucking idiot, why waste my time with that link. What the fuck is that supposed to tell me, you useless motherfucker?
I didn’t argue that it was a good or bad thing, numbnut. What i said was that the government does have control of the money as it can simply create money out of thin air and hand it over to the banks as a cap injection
And go get a grown-ups name.
J,
DEVILDOG hates people…and Fly answers him a lot.
N
For those of you who are long XOM. Today will be your chance to sell into this rally. As inventory numbers are bound to be bearish tomorrow.
Devil Dog is Fly’s (temporary) friend.
I think he’ll be leaving the Chevy soon.
___________
the devil FAS looking worthy of of a day trade
MOE…with XOM resting at a PE of 8.44…where do you see its share price falling to in the next month?
Pete
Jake – don’t shoot the messenger, el douchebag
as if you didn’t know, us liberal/commies will milk Bush for all he’s worth … good times are nearly over 🙁
not that I’ve said a word about that turd in forever
Bennet Sedacca
09:00:00 AM
Posiion in PST
10’s…
Pass the Head and Shoulders please.
Looks to me like dandruff has formed, big-time, in 10-year futes. This is what I was looking for, an unsuccessful retest.
The risk/reward is squarely in the Bear’s camp.
I am participating via a long position in PST in reasonable size and with defined risk of course. But I like my odds.
nazrul
So you think Devildog is Fly?
could be. I’ve never seen either of them (or him) say something nice to anyone… Well actually I did, Fly did sometime last early last year, so that could be a way of disguising himself that he also wasn’t the Dog. LOL.
IBC now officially qualifies for inclusion on the Yahoo chatboard system.
I can’t see any bank or any mortgage firm making any money of any notable mention to cause the stock prices to go up. Some dipshit rallies are bound to happen here and there but for the overall picture, I see only down from here in all banking/loaning operations.
With the 6-7 years under Bushes “American Dream” plan of thinking every swinging dick that currently lives in a mobile home in Mobile to bump up to a real house with zero down has spoiled all the fruit on the tree……
People have had the run on the mortgage facilities for 6-7 years of going into a bank and with only 2 pay stubs (old school mortgage requirement used to be 2 years 1040 returns) walk out that same day with a 100% mortgage of 125% more than the applidick/applicunt could afford…..
With 6-7 years of free houses, and with 6-7 years of Capital One asking every dumbass in America to please sign on to live on credit that you don’t have the ability to pay back, you have most Americans with ZERO savings and 15-30,000.00 in credit card debt that has to be paid or “defauted” …..
You take ZERO savings and incured debt from credit card living, try to employee a new policy (actually old school) of requiring 20% down and financing of only 80% of the home cost, you will see home sales stagnate….as I’m seeing now in my town.
People across the board have very little savings, couple that with massive losses in 401K’s and couple that with still falling home prices that scare qualified buyers from buying now, since they are worried to sign the dotted line in that as soon as they do, the house will fall even further from here…..
Take all above and let me know if you want to buy bank/mortgage stocks?
In the end it takes MONEY to buy a house…..and money only grows on the trees in the Treasuries courtyard.
The Fly has always been nice to me.
The D Dog and Fly are NOT the same person. Come on guys.
Sr. Fly has said something nice it was towards the end of last year Nov/Dec He told me I had a ‘ nice post’ and then put that post in the Epic Quotes section.
.
Sold BGU, small gain. 3x ETFs are for asshats.
I’m telling you dudes… if you thought banks are heading down because of stress in the credit markets that doesn’t look like its happening especially since the Ted and libor have really rallied hard over the past few weeks.
The banksters are down because of expected bad 4th quarter earnings reports. However you can expect them to basically stick every bad thing into 08 and then some.
Withe credit stress easing so much and provided it stays down this looks great for banksters and if I may be so bold there could actually be some mark up in their mark to markets in the first quarter.
I think banks are an ok buy here.
The spread may also be coming down because there are no borrowers around which means the distressed debt may start to look okay to buy as asset.
——–
Lady G.
Get real. We’re just joshing. We know The fly and The dog are unique sentient beings with two distinct souls.
Jerry,
I have a plan to revive this site: make it a multi-media platform for delivering value-added content with forward-looking design executed against an aggressive timeline with the collaboration of world-class partners to serve the growing need of social media infrastructure and the feedization of the web.
Or, we could just ban a lot of dick weeds.
Sincerely,
Your former boss, Terry
Bruce,
If you bring obviously biased, ill-sourced and deranged “information” to this blog, you will be shot, no matter the context, and not necessarily by me.
“Do better due diligence next time” — words to live by.
_________
to J, good luck…….
distressed debt is yesterdays….
going forward, requires the sale of new homes, this is where the problem lies.
president Bush on TV right now is “Proud” of his 8 years accomplishments?
speaking of an ASSHAT……
Fool me once shame on me, fool you twice…………………NOT GONNA GET FOOLED AGAIN!
Tape feels mushy (that’s what she said)
The banks are down because they still have shit on thier books and none of them know how much shit. Hell they hold their CDS exposure off the books and they have been book the premiums they received from those CDS sales as revenue. Who in the fuck is going to pay for the CDS when companies default. AIG? give me a fucking break. The only thing that can save the banks is the government. Buy them at your own peril
J,
I like your synopsis of the bank situation…but I think you want to stay away from the banks until they have retested the Nov lows.
Pete
Artist.
I took a look at some research from CS today for a variety of banks.
One for instance knocked me over. MS has very little potential risk sitting on their books going forward.
commercial real estate? You think that’s a problem for them? they have $1.5 billion. These fuckers for instance have written most things down to basically a few cents.
There are also some others too that don’t look as risky as the market thinks they are.
State street is another one.
as I said if the credit stress stays as easy it is we could be seeing mark ups in some securities in the first quarter.
Pete-
XOM goes to 70 IMO. The stock is trading like oil is still at $100 a barrel.
FLY – which tickers are you finding to be the leaders/tells recently? What should I watch for leading us up/down?
Thank you sir,
MOOBER
Jake – Humana’s price apparently due to cuts in Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates (at least S&P’s opinion). What other metrics are you using to analyze it?
Moe,
there hasn’t been one CDS default as of yet and AIG was the biggest risk because they were so one sided, but the government is sitting behind them.
look, people get all worried about huge numbers that these CDS books are supposed to represent. However most of that shit is just basic book running and you’ll find the exposure, the net exposure, is very small.
It was like the size our option book when I worked at an I bank. the gross exposure was about $50 billion. However those were all boughts and solds and the net exposure was probably no more that 30 million spot going home.
MOE…check this interesting scatter chart of XOM versus crude
http://tinyurl.com/8thcoe
or here…for the full article (a little dated but still good)
http://tinyurl.com/7togvt
Jake – Humana’s price apparently due to cuts in Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates (at least S&P’s opinion). What other metrics are you using to analyze it?
Howabout confirmation of $6 a share this year?
____________
BTW ^^^^
HUM now up over a $1.50 off it’s lows today (or about 5%).
_______
The only way to see reality in real estate going forward is to drive around your own town and see how long the houses sit for sale…..if a house sits for more than 2 months on the market for sale the house is either over priced or there is a PROBLEM with getting someone in it…..problem being, inability to obtain a loan due to all the factors I mentioned earlier in other blog……There are houses all over my town that have been for sale for 9 months and are still empty and still have for sale signs….. I go with reality, not what some asshat at Moody’s has written…they all lie and books are cooked daily…… I go with absolute reality on my forward looking view…… I drive around and ask questions…..and I am first hand involved in the housing/building/planing area……..my shoes are on the dirt on building sites.
I’m just telling people the way it is…..
I personally do not see very good results going FORWARD from here in people getting home loans as they would like.
Just food for thought……
which leads me to ask…..what’s for lunch today?
Financials and Small caps outperforming. FUCK U BEARS ! YOU’RE DEAD !
I am just following up on Pete’s post, see about five posts up.
The graphs have been updated. You can see the latest graphs and full complete article by clicking on the link.
Artist — this is very important.
Where do you live?
________
Artist,
Americans always find a way to make money out of hardships. Someone with money could come along and buy up the houses and ‘rent’ them. Rental properties here in Houston are booming.
On Kirby there is this huge new rental property that is already 1/2 leased and its not even finished being built yet. Its a combination of apartments and shopping. Across the street is Whole Foods, everything you need you can walk to.
http://www.westaveriveroaks.com/
This Urban Living idea is really taking off in Houston. Another project like it was done near downtown but on a very small scale ( build apartments on top of shopping). It was in Midtown, cant remember the name.
The Museum Tower where I use to live near the Fine Arts Museum and Medical Center is constantly filled up, there is a waiting list to get into apartments there.
http://www.themuseumtower.com/
1200 Post Oak is right in the heart of Post Oak/ Galleria shopping and you can walk to restaurants, stores, dentist, doctors, the gym, grocery stores, high tech jobs– I live there now.
http://www.1200postoak.com/
Now next door to 1200 Post Oak are two ‘ condo’ towers where each unit sells for over a million dollars and they are not full- probably less than half are bought.
Rental is booming in Houston especially ‘ luxury’ rentals. So money flows ….to least resistance I guess and where it can find support.
.
WoW! Interesting discussion at Tim Knight’s residence today. What an outburst. At least the mechanics shop doesn’t turn on the fly.
u notice how he took down is claims of great returns?
12/26/08 3:13pm
Mk: kko
12/29/08 10:34pm
Easy$: Tim Knight pretending like he had a good year. Oh, you sheep. If you only had been following him for the last 18 months. He is down big. Please!!!!!!! The old timers are nowhere to be found on the slope because they have seen the destruction first hand. Rinse and repeat!!!! Blahahahaha
Don’t be fooled by his somewhat pleasant personality. His blog is so self-promoting and just an informercial for his book on how to be a sheep trader. What a joke!
gspot: so where is Tim’s proof of gains and I am not able to access his watch list-help
1/1/09 2:34pm
TimKnight: Tim hear
1/4/09 6:27pm
ptkk: anyone here?
nobody seems to be on here
lol
1/7/09 6:28pm
stockbasta: i will take your proshare money thank you
1/8/09 3:20pm
Easy$: “Those who can’t trade, advise.” Funny coming from Tim Knight. He can’t do either. What a joke he is. Sad that so many naively follow him and never question the many losers he has that he NEVER talks about.
fred: anyone here
1/12/09 2:11pm
tom: come on..a blog is just for pure reading. there’s no right or wrong. don’t take it too personally. but Tim indeed gives lots of ideas with all his charts and comments (tough sometimes may be wrong) 🙂 But its rather enlightening to read his blogs compare to some analysis site. Keep it up Tim !!
1/12/09 5:44pm
Easy$: There’s no “come on” about it, Tom. I have been following his blog for 18 months. The old-timers are long gone because we’ve seen the carnage first hand. Learn to trade for yourself. Continue to follow him and you’ll get massacred with time. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
To Lady, renting is not buying…..rentals are going to be booming now, and it is a direct indication that families CANNOT come up with qualifications to get a home loan to buy a house……so they rent….
Rentals going up is THE absolute indicator of bad news for home loans……
To Jake, I live in the Triad area of NC, Winston Salem, High Point, Greensboro……
how will houston fare when the oil industry tanks?
Rental going up is actually a good thing as the homes are being used for rent.
also eventually when things turn around and the stock gets soaked up in a year or so (and it will) upward pressure on the rental market will put upward pressure on people to buy homes.
Does anyone know the # to Larry Kudlow’s blow dealer?
Artist I know that.
However I will tell you this I CAN afford to buy a home, I have excellent credit, I have enough money to put down. Most of the people in the Museum Tower HAD HOMES, the Tower was their second homes, Most all the people in my building can afford to buy homes. I have a two bedroom. Most make over 250,000 except those in perhaps the smallest one bedrooms but the credit checks and qualifications to get in are strict and the smallest apartments people still have to have above average incomes.
I have talked to a lot of people that live with me in both of those places, some people are waiting for the prices to stabilize to buy but a BIG majority just dont want the headaches of ‘home ownership, repairs, property taxes, etc’
The other point I was trying to make is that there are still plenty of people ‘ with money’ and they are renting luxury apartments instead of buying.
It might be ‘ the way of the future’ or the past…as long ago most people didn’t own homes. We have to allow for the fact that circumstances change the landscape and laminating ‘ how it use to be’ may be a waste of energy. Instead we should look for opportunities in what is manifesting now.
Also rentals of HOMES is picking up and that is all over Houston.
As far as the oil/gas industry ( my family is in the service related oil gas field) it will have some impact but Houston is very diversified. A lot of high tech and other industries. Its also one of the cheapest places in America to live….people flock to Houston …we have no state taxes and cost of living is cheap.
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Artist — lol. I’ve heard it called the “Triangle” but never the Triad. You guys into Chinese gangs over there now?
On a more serious note, the high growth and coastal areas (the ones who benefitted most from the run-up) are going to feel the most pain, real estate wise.
Good time for those thinking of moving to a nice area with relatively low cost of living though.
M’self, I’d take Greenville-Spartanburg, SC first though.
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lady G
there’s a big arbitrage people have to overcome in deciding to rent and not buy. That’s the tax advantage of buying compared to renting. It’s very significant. Once the huge fear abates a little in terms of losing one’s job and the housing market looks like stabilizing just a little people will begin to buy again.
It won’t be like before because you’ll need 30% coverage, but they will buy as the tax advantage is too big to pass up. also rentals are kind of shitty as there’s little repair going into them.
j
My high-rise is always being upgraded, class A apartments are different than class B or C.
Yes I am sure more people will buy when they feel more secure,
Still even before all this happened last year there were a lot of people choosing to live an ‘ urban lifestyle’ verses a suburban lifestyle. These luxury places built as ‘shopping and entertainment’ centers or right in the middle of them….is a new idea over the past 5 years that has taken off.
Lots of people like the idea of stepping out of their home and sitting at a sidewalk cafe for coffee or lunch, or walking to the doctors, or walking to work, the gym, stores.
That’s my point….sometimes new things are produced that create a new future. Now with this housing issue these places are even more popular. Investments can be made in these types of living areas and boom the local economy.
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Houston is tricky. There are large pockets of decline on the south side of Houston. TX is the best emerging market state in the US.
Rents are increasing.
i think fly is so quiet cause he is trying to close his loosing money inverse etfs
All homes built new or empty now will be sold eventually, that will happen, when, we do not know, but the houses sitting idle now will not be absorbed at current conditions…..
If banks would not go from ZERO DOWN, 100% loans, come one come all policy, to 20% down 80% loans overnight….which is what they have done…..
But would do this:
start off by offering a 30 year fixed for 3%, require 5% downpayment and finance 95% of the property you would be able to liquidate all current inventory and get the houses slump in forward gear…..and get it there fast…
but now, 5.50% is still too high an interest rate…..
but policy makers are stupid ass dipshits and will always fuck up till the end of time and thus, this housing problem will linger……..
To Jake…yeh triangle covers greensboro, Raleigh, Charlotte, the bigger triangle….but Greensboro is the center point….but a distance of about 180 miles from Charlotte to Raleigh with Greensboro being in the middle and real estate slightly different in each area……
And to all, Renting is pissing money away………
IN the end you have NOTHING…….
Asset wealth is not created by renting….
The next big trend in real estate is going to be the move away from suburbia and into downtowns. The younger generations – 35 and under prefer an urban lifestyle over a suburban one. Downtowns will flurish. Suburbs will rot away into extinction. Lots of money to be made. Buy up industrials lots in downtowns and convert to residential.
Chart Addict
Depends on what part of the south end of Houston you are talking about ‘ southeast’ has always been an industrial area, lots of oil-gas refineries, Pasadena, South Houston has always been lower income level…
There is a pocket of higher income in that area and its ‘ClearLake” near Nasa. My parents and sister live there…there are million dollar homes in that area. There are also really nice homes along ‘ ClearLake” LAKE for sailing.
The Central and West Sides of Houston are doing well. The north up past Spring in the Woodlands is doing well. The Woodlands is a growing community.
Its a large large city…you have pockets of poor people in every city or lower income levels.
But those people that live in lower income levels still have a cost of living a lot cheaper than most all of the USA.
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Lady G
These luxury places built as ’shopping and entertainment’ centers or right in the middle of them….is a new idea over the past 5 years that has taken off.
explain please
Lots of people like the idea of stepping out of their home and sitting at a sidewalk cafe for coffee or lunch, or walking to the doctors, or walking to work, the gym, stores.
That’s NYC.
I think CAP may be right…
But hasn’t that happened already, Cap. there was a ton of conversions done in NYC when i lived there… the meat district, other areas around there.
Australia is amusing. It’s the most urbanized nation on earth. the 5 or 6 big cities hold 90 odd % of the population.
Inner city areas are and have been in prime demand.. Believe it or not because of restrictive res codes there’s a shortage of housing here and rentals are well bid.
Real estate has dropped about 10% here an the banks aren’t going bust as you mostly needed 20% down before you could buy.
The Fly may not be Devil Dawg, but he could be (NY Daily News sportswriter) Mike Lupica!
… The Giants were like that a year ago. We wondered how much they would miss Plaxico Burress Sunday, and Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. They missed them all, mightily. It turned out they were never the same on offense after Burress shot himself in the leg and tried to shoot his team out of a cannon at the same time.
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ChartAddict – Your info may be a bit stale.
Rents in H-Town have begun their slip. We’ve been able to survive so far, but I am seeing a significant amount of “investors” that have been renting try to sell b/c they can’t get the rent to support the nut.
We haven’t had huge declines in value, but add an HP layoff, something else in the med center, and bam, here they come. BTW, the Med Center hospitals just put in hiring freezes so they are being affected. Fortunately it only took 1 year or so to begin vs the rest of the country that is already f*cked.
GOAT
j
Conversions of downtown areas started back in the 1990s. I use to live in Boulder during that time and downtown Denver was completely overhauled with ‘ lofts’ and lots of shopping, restaurants and sporting events.
Downtown Houston went thru that boom too, they built convention centers, new sports facilities, lots of condo lofts and shopping.
What is new tho is in the past 5 years this has moved OUT OF downtown and into the normal areas of Houston. Pockets of Houston that had shopping, entertainment -people started building more urban style apartments that had shops attached to them or next door to these things. Luxury apartments that advertised the ‘ urban lifestyle’
People could have a ‘downtown’ feel without being downtown.
Its very popular.
oh okay, got it.
Yea we’re seeing a bit of that too here with apartments going up and shops etc around them so people could simply walk around.
That’s the shitty thing about not living in NYC anymore as you could just walk around and do everything and a car would be inconvenient.
Ar-teest –
LTV/CLTV 95.00% / 95.00% Note Rate 4.875%
Loan Type Conventional
Loan Term 360
Total Loan Amount $379984.00 Amortization Type Fixed Rate
Sales Price $400000.00 Loan Purpose Purchase
Appraised Value $400000.00
Just one of many approvals for a 5% down purchase…
FHA only requires 3.5% down…
Stop talking sheeeeeeyit
really
5% down is still going on? fme.
Anyone want to see some serious Noo Yawkahs?
This is almost anthropological in its interest.
(Except for CA, I don’t know how he got into this, but ignore his part, he’s nawt from Noo Yawk).
I get a feel of downtown when I drive from my luxury 50 acre estate in the beautiful countryside to it……and then when I’ve had my feel of noise and idiots…..I get to drive back to my big lovely spread and have peace and quiet……(of course to each his/her own)
but lets talk stocks…..
yup, Houston isn’t a place I would invest.
I have properties in Tyler, Arlington, San Marcos, Beaumont, Austin & Texarkana.
Houston was too much of a risk.
I am just saying that large historical events often change the landscape completely from the previous generation. After the war everyone went to the suburbs and drove everywhere in their big cars.
Maybe there is a movement now to centralize everything around where you live and walk…using less cars, less traveling to get to point A.
Making life easier in some ways…that perhaps COUNT MORE now…than before.
Houston is not my favorite place to live, Austin might be somewhere I like better and this is being done in Austin and Dallas as well.
‘nough said…..
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England had that idea once…..and everyone thought it grand to move to the cities and live one atop another and live side by side and eat, sleep, shit, puke, shop, and tell jokes and be close to thy upstairs neighbor……then they had a little problem called the Black Plague…….the survivors of that was of course the ones who chose to stay out in the country……
but again, do what you want…..
in the end it all comes down to the fact that Dennis Kneale is still a fucking idiot….
What we are trying to figure out in our real estate topic is this:
Is C and BAC going up or down from here…. that’s the question…..
real estate is a major factor in that outcome…..
Is there any leveraged ETF which I can use to get long bonds ? Like a 2x TLT ETF ? I strongly suspect bonds will continue moving upwards. TBT will be destroyed. Actually I could probably just short TBT.