First, I’d like to say, there is nothing more poetic that a sharp reversal to the upside, while a “Fuck You Bulls, You’re Dead” title saddles the front page.
Aside from that, XOM refuses to go away and die. In the short term, the market is going to do whatever it wants to. However, I wanted to highlight a disconnect between how investors are valuing XOM compared to its peers.
At current prices, XOM‘s market cap is approximately 388 billion, which is equal to the market caps of CVX, BP and TOT combined.
So, since XOM‘s cap is equal to the combined value of CVX, BP and TOT, let’s compare the two entities on a valuation basis.
Price to Sales Ratio
XOM: 1.10
CVX/BP/TOT: .57
Revenue
XOM: $464 billion
CVX/BP/TOT: $826 billion
Price to Book Ratio
XOM: 3.15
CVX/BP/TOT: 1.47
Gross Profits (last qt.)
XOM: $37.5 billion
CVX/BP/TOT: $54.8 billion
Price Earnings Ratio
XOM: 8.4
CVX/BP/TOT: 5.24
So, either CVX/BP and TOT are egregiously undervalued or XOM is idiotically priced. I choose the latter.
In order for XOM to trade in parity with CVX/BP and TOT, its share price needs to trade in the $40-$50 range.
Bottom line: If XOM got cut in half from current levels, it would represent the best value in the oil space, but just by a little. With a market cap of nearly $400 billion, it represent more than 5.5% of the entire S&P 500.
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Fly, your oil platform is leaning to one side!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
XOM is also more than the 24 largest US banks combined.
You’ve convinced me, I’ll short that POS against long CLR HES.
Excellent points Fly. No doubt that big oil leads the S&P 500 to new lows.
Any chance we can get some PPT results for XOM?
And if posssible, maybe a couple of the other oil names?
On a separate note, I have not executed any trades today, still leaning slightly to the short side; but with ample upside hedges.
Unreal move in FAS today. Glad I held it.
Why not pair up with short XOM/long BP on a dollar neutral basis?
You pick up 6% positive carry on the dividend differential assuming BP’s dividend is sustainable. Plus you don’t have to get the direction right, just that the spread narrows.
How dare you try to short my dad’s retirement account and attempt to kick him down the stairs. He still refuses to sell his XOM, which has enabled him to accumulate great wealth over the past 30 years despite being a lowly blue collar worker in a smelly Texas town. I just hope he doesn’t lose it all. I keep telling my dad “The Fly is against you, and he always wins eventually”. He replies by saying some stuff about the dollar, how well run Exxon is, and spouts off about a buyback program.
I fear for my XOM-loving family and hope The Fly somehow loses this battle. Go pick on some other bullshit oil stock.
Keep screaming in the wind, Dad. Short of a 2:1 stock split, XOM ain’t ever seeing $40/share.
The other oil stocks are undervalued and XOM deserves a best in space valuation premium.
PPT is bullish on XOM.
Technical Breakdown
Accumulation/Dist. [?] 1
Price Performance [?] 4
Relative Strength [?] 3
Volatility [?] 1
Volume [?] 2
Overall Technical Score [?] 1.94
PPT Recommendation: Strong Sell
Fundamental Breakdown
Debt/Equity [?] 5
PEG Ratio [?] 5
Price/Book [?] 3
Price/Sales [?] 5
Profit Margin [?] 4
Overall Fund. Score [?] 4.66
PPT Recommendation: Strong Buy
Hybrid Score
Hybrid Score [?] 3.09
Historical Scores
How has XOM scored in the past? Click here to find out.
PPT Recommendation: Buy
The rub is: XOM’s numbers, stand alone, do not make the stock rich. Only when you compare it to peers, it looks like an over bloated pig.
Let’s see what their numbers look like next week.
J – regarding your post about lefties being hypocrites but not Bush … get real
I don’t know anything about Obamas new designer toilets or his wasting tax payer monies in the White House … I’ll admit, he wasted $200 mill on the inaugural ball that he shouldn’t have
BTW:
XOM is about .50 away from getting a sell signal, fyi.
Fly Jr.
You are young and stupid. Plus you have no idea what you are talking about.
Therefore, try to refrain addressing “The Fly” directly. Leave a message for one of the pros on this board, like Juice or Jake. If they deem your message worthy, they may choose to pass it along.
Thank you.
Fly
SLV starting to break out here.
The market is full of lies.
The chef has been retained, the dog has almost been recruited, and now one more crucial piece of the White House jigsaw has been resolved: the interior designer.
Michael Smith, a Californian steeped in the flourishes and mores of old Europe, is to revamp the White House to present an interior more suited to the Obamas’ forward-looking, change-driven agenda.
And Thain’s Designer?
Separately, CNBC reported the 53-year-old Thain had hired well-known Los Angeles interior designer Michael Smith to redecorate his Merrill office a year ago. CNBC said Thain ran up a bill of $US1.22 million that included $US35,115 for a “commode on legs” and $US1,405 for a parchment waste can.
odd no?
nothing like have the major oils down and DUG DOWN TOO – wtf?!?!?!?
Lance Lewis
10:45:00 AM
Position in gold, gold stocks
Gold Busta Move
Note gold has thrust deep into the “monkey zone” (which I’ve discussed before), where chart guys will begin chasing it. Note this is also occurring despite another push higher in the dollar index.
As I’ve said before, one of two things are occurring:
1. gold (and now the increasing weakness in the bond market as well) are telling us that the dollar’s rally will soon collapse. Or…
2. Gold is simply breaking out in all fiat currencies regardless of the action in the dollar and is now set to rally sharply with the dollar index, just as it did in 1979 when gold rose nearly 400%.
Both possibilities are uber bullish, but the latter is the most bullish for the gold stocks, since most mines are overseas where costs are denominated in foreign currencies that are falling against the dollar while revenues in dollars are rising with the gold price.
My own opinion is that the former possibility is the most likely outcome, but as a gold mining share owner, I’d be perfectly happy with the latter.
If gold can hang on to its gains today, the same people that hated it at $750 will LOVE it between $900 and $1000 next week. The enusing rally could be extremely swift…
# Bravo Says:
“i just don’t see this scenario where people en masse wake up one day and say “fuck it i am not paying for my credit card.” these assholes have made minimum payments for years, and will continue to do so. COF may be a piece of shit company, but human nature says they will continue to extend credit, and retards will continue to pay it off in 30 years. everybody wins.”
They made minimum payments because that’s all they could afford. That was “with” a job. Miss a few payments, rates skyrocket, and suddenly the debtor realizes that it’s a rabbit hole, especially when it’s not just with COF, but with C, BAC, Discover, etc….
Massive amounts of credit was extended, and now, “POOF”, it’s gone. Lines are drawn down, rates and fees accelerate, and the “retards” who once met the minimums, are still retarded, yet now their are more of them with no jobs who could give a gay fiddle about a stupid minimum payment when gas and beer are more important. Credit was extended like no ones business. Now, like the real estate collapse, it will be everyone’s business.
Conclusion: Short COF with impunity
January 19th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
Continue shorting COF with impunity……
sell now while you can
CNBC is absolutely ripping off this site, with the whole Shamwow and Snuggie thing. Did you see that just now?
Even the stock bracket concept is a ripoff of the contest.
They are reading…
Fly, I totally agree. And I own XOM personally, I’m going to blow some of it out and get into CVX, which is a great value.
Good stuff. Thanks.
I’m pretty long of gold and promised myself I would add to the pos if it got to $900 but as useless piece of dog turd I just quite pull the trigger.
This thing has broken up against all the currencies bar none and this makes it hugely bullish.
It could trade back to 1000 next week.
If it does, idiots will be talking about inflation coming back sooner than what we thought, add to that some bank support package to get their shit off the books and banks could head to the moon.
CNBC has me up against Girls Gone Wild. I don’t stand a fucking chance.
Fuck you and your gay Snuggie blanket, Darren.
Interesting analysis on XOM.
Do one (or more) of the other 3 names have any liquidity concerns that might be knocking down equity valuations?
Gold up large on a Friday..lets see if the CRIMEX err COMICS sorry I meant the COMEX can step on golds neck this afternoon
CVX/BP/TOT valuations are in line with all other oil/gas stocks. XOM is the outlier.
I Guess the CEO from Yahoo can take a measure of relief from Mister Softee living up to its name
Bought PWRD below $15. Value pick among Chinese online gaming companies which are somewhat recession proof.
what’s for lunch?
“Poetic”. Yah. Or something like that.
HK long has been a bright spot for me, last coupla days. Unloading most now, keeping a 20% position, but a hair trigger pull any from bailing and flipping short. It just feels like that little fucker’s coiling up a bit.
Liking my MEE also.
Fly,
So would it be better to short XOM or go long DUG?
Big Banks showing excellent relative strength here boys. Time for a break out!
Citi + 14%
Broker A, aka The Fly,
Just got caught up on the last several posts. Your Letter to Mr. Lewis made my day. Where did you get that great picture?! Also, when will some g-damn accountability kick inso that all these pompous overpaid jerks get some kind of slobberknockin’?
Donny, thanks for the heads-up, watching…
short til they break highs. bac and c both must break them. i short them now
RE : GOLD
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/
100% LONG
TNA
NG
FAS
ONXX
DXO
SWHC
LOPE
AFAM
DVAX
I know nobody worth their salt cares about my 2 cent portfolio but I like to type to myself
Fly, I appreciate your numbers and hadn’t realized that the gap was so big. That said, XOM has always traded at a premium to their competitors. I just don’t know how much of a premium. But it has always been a significant one. If you added COP in there the spread would have been even greater. But this is not a new fact. When Chevron was at P/E ratio of 11, COP was at 7. Exxon was higher than Chevron. Now COP is at a P/E ratio of 3.9 according to Google finance. 3.9!!! But COP have an enormous debt, mediocre cash flow, underperform in volumes, mediocre assets, excess political risk, and do aquisitions during high price environments. Exxon generally does the opposite. CVX, BP, and TOT are in between these end members. The question comes down to “How much of a premium does Exxon deserve?” Personally I’d say they deserve a really big premium because 5 years from now they’ll have outpaced their competitors by almost double. Everything oil and gas will slide for a few months here, but if you look a few years out, through continued substantial investment into long time horizon projects, Exxon will be like Taco Bell in the movie Demolition Man.
Just a few thoughts from Mars.
Jake, how’s the flabby gut, post pregnant, stretch marked chicks weight loss ad up top working for ya today?
Holy crap. SLV on fire.
DONNY – Thanks for the update. I am shorting banks. You are my numero Uno contrarian indicator. Last 2 days you have timed the market top with your ‘Well well, here’s DONNY, and DONNY is long FAS . FAS is going to $15. Another great trade by DONNY’ ..Har har har har.
is anyone here jumping on the stem cell stocks band wagon?
Fly just sent Fly, Jr. into time out.
Tough love.
Looking at short XOM, long CVX as pair trade – thanks Fly.
Markets are resolving their direction for a fairly big move – trend resolves today or over the weekend.
Hey Self Cocksucker (CAP) … Please tell us what your exact price point is, so I know.
We’ll see who’s right by next Friday.
Please don’t hesitate now FuckFace.
Waiting …
Lance Lewis
12:20:00 PM
Position in gold, gold stocks
Party like it’s 1973?
Note the continued collapse of the SPX/Gold ratio below “1”, as gold ($897) soars above the S&Ps (822) in price.
The last time this “event” occurred was in 1973. Gold would go on to roughly triple in price over the next 12 months then. Will history repeat?
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/A1.%20T.woo/LANCE1.jpg
————–
Michael Paulenoff
12:05:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Gold Mining ETF Reaches New Recovery Highs
The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is taking its lead from the gold market this morning, rather than the equity market, which has propelled the gold mining index to a new recovery high.
More importantly, however, is that the price structure is attempting to hurdle a resistance plateau that represents the neckline of a base-like pattern that has developed during January.
The ability of the GDX to sustain the 32.50 to 31.00 area on any rest/digestion/pullback period argues for an “eventual” upside acceleration towards two optimal targets: 1) 35.00/30, and then to 2) 36.80-37.20. So far, so good — that after one hour of trading, the GDX has preserved the bulk of its opening gains and remains ABOVE the January breakout plateau at 32.30/50.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/A1.%20T.woo/pauly%20gdx%20107.jpg
———————————
Bennet Sedacca
11:50:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Could the first wave of Treasury sell off be close to complete?
I stated when 10’s were at 2% and 30’s at 2.5% that I thought the secular bull run in Treasuries was over. I still feel that way, but markets don’t go in straight lines.
We are gaining on a 50% retracement of the recent spike.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/Theale/sg2009012341101.gif
So being short here could be dangerous as the cash 30 year is down a not-so-cool 22 POINTS in a month.
So those that heeded my opinion and got long TBT of PST may want to book gains.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/Theale/sg2009012341009.gif
Watch for a snapper.
UNG just hit new 52 week low…..
GLD is trading back against ice from 10/10…volume then was 45 M shares for the day and on the week 138M going to come up short here – daily/weekly- however it has a price objective of 920 to complete an ABC up from the Dec 5 th low… fresh longs tread careful..momo’s knowknow to use tight stopo
we finish -200
Osmond
Try to be courteous to your superiors. Cap is nice. You wouldn’t get away with that shit with me.
Yep Artist and the arctic cold snap is set to descend on us folks up north again this weekend. Its been so cold the weatherman is reporting the temperatures in degrees Kelvin….
Long FAZ $63.89 Avg cost basis
Short C – $3.51
Short BAC – $5.77
Short JPM – $23.66
Short WFC – $15.59
The bank shorts are the average of the orders I placed today. I have been short the banks the last week and a half. Covered a little for profits. Traded in and out.
Covered DB today @ $21.6 – was short from $29+
Go ahead Donny , what are you long ?
extremely over valued !!!
anjing bau
You can’t use a tight stop with gold as it will fuck ya. It was 824 this past Monday. It’s wide stop smaller position.
Fly
Whats the PPT stuff on citi , Bac, GS and MS please.
I see a short squeeze toward the close as prudent Bears begin to lock in a 3rd good week.
complacent Bears = Pigs if they don’t cover into this weekend!!
Pigs get slaughtered come Monday!
symmetrical triangle on dow. we breakdown i think now or at 1:45-2. inverted hammer on dow now if combine last two sessions not including this one with a bearish engulfing.
Cap-
I don’t believe you topped all those positions. However, I will give you the benefit of the doubt.
My position is 10k long FAS at 8.21/.23
I’m sure you’ll cover all your short positions right before they spike, right. LoL
Keep me updated, and not 20 minutes after a fabricated trade.
8)
So what you are saying Henry is that we all will be enjoying B-B-Que come monday? I like mine Lexington style…..
Long JPM from just under $20.
Long UYG @2.90
Long FAS (yesterday) @ 7.91
Thinking about WFC here as well.
__________
IOW — “I’m wit Donny.”
_________
Fly,
Comparing XOM to BP or COP is like comparing Toyota to Chrysler. XOM is the clear leader in the business – I’m not saying I know anything about it’s future stock movement – I just don’t agree that it should be on par with BP or COP. I will concede one thing – XOM is so big that they are partnered with Shell, CVX and BP on many of their best projects. So in that sense, they share some of the same revenue. Overall, their return on equity, earnings (even at 40$ oil) and portfolio of projects is top notch. If you want to short the energy sector, take a look at operators that are stuck working in the Rockies – they are getting 50% of the current NG price because pipeline capacity is full.
70% cash
D, PM, SAN recent buys
I’ll cover half my shorts if we have a strong close. 🙂
Continue to short APOL with impunity
8:23AM Apollo Group: Lawsuit is likely to be refiled in the coming days – Credit Suisse (APOL) 87.44 : Credit Suisse believes that APOL shares rallied yesterday in reaction to news of the dismissal of the lawsuit filed December in Arkansas alleging that APOL wrongfully returned Title IV funds to the Department of Education to manage down cohort default rates; the firm thinks some investors had believed that the dismissal meant that the issue had been put to bed but industry sources leads the firm to think that the lawsuit is likely to be refiled in the coming days in Phoenix
Bravo;
Look in today’s mail. Chase just sent notice- in brochure form- of Fuck you we raised your rates(24.99%) and Fuck you if you don’t like and fuck you some more. This to soemone who’s never missed a payment or been late.
You don’t think folks are gonna say Fuck you back to these credit card nazis?
I think your post was read yesterday on Fast Money by Carter Worth…
Artist, the FUPA shit is beginning to become “not so much a joke” anymore.
It’s working on my lunch-eating abilities right now.
And for you cheap fux who keep hyping the latest ad hiding bullschist devices, step off.
Fly’s gracious enough to provide us this shit for free, the least you can do is bear up to the commercial element.
But Fly did mention that he had some method in which to “squash” some ads he deemed offensive (like that Starsky-looking queen Little Rich’s ads).
I hope he will take up the scythe again on these FUPAs.
_________
I’ll cover half my shorts if we have a strong close.
No, No, No … that isn’t the way the game is played. If you’re gonna use me as a “contrarian indicator”, and pound your chest doing so, I want to know precisely were you stand at all times.
You see, unlike you, I give my exact position at the time of purchase. You don’t do that, you never have.
I know you will lose betting against me, just as you did many times last year.
8)
Hope you’re not eating cottage cheese there, Jake.
Jake…where are you? Do you live in New York?
May I ask how old you are?
Buy dollar yen here. Put a stop at 87.98 and close the position early morning Asia time.
The Japanese fin min was talking pretty hawkishly implying intervention. Traders always bid it up before the Tokyo open in fear of that alone.
It pays the utility bills.
smaller position size is good adice J … I was thinking more along the lies of momo traders who play b/o’s…. I buy pullbacks and retracements so at these levels I will be looking to sell into false strength….Gold is the meanest mistress of the markets
reloading HK. too strong to short, and running a bit
WTF happened to DXO? +9.3%
Lady G…suggest you try Adultfriendfiner.com for shit like that….they even include cock size
Screw it – we’re going up, most likely under the false illusion that they’re going to inflate this thing back. Back to long, unless we go below S&P 800. The death spiral is apparently postponed.
cheer up l’il fella, the world can collapse some other time
Cover of Barron’s: Buy XOM!