A good friend of mine has been screaming from the roof tops to sell short treasuries, via TBT, and roll into gold, via DGP or GLD, on the belief that gold will become the new safe haven.
Although I not believe gold is a good place to park funds, I am open to the idea that it can become the “new safe haven,” for big money.
The writing is all over the wall today. T-bills are getting nailed to the floor boards and the dollar is up! And, at the same time, both gold and silver are through the fucking roof.
That makes no sense.
Also, oil/gas and other commodities are down, with exception to gold and silver of course.
So, we have money fleeing t-bills, en masse, and that selling is NOT promoting risk in commodities or stocks. Odd, no?
The bulls case, for a long time now, has been to get long stocks and commodities, in anticipation of the “safe money” in t-bills getting put back to work in riskier asset classes.
Well, we have severe selling pressure in t-bills, but no dice for equity holders.
Look, at this point, stocks are like warrants attached to the overall health of the economy. It is the sideshow, compared to the action in currencies and bonds.
Bottom line: I’m not a fan of gold/silver; however, today’s run should not be ignored. It is clear, the “safe haven” money is being transferred from t-bills to gold. Should this trend continue, gold/silver can move much, much higher from current levels.
Top gold/silver picks: ABX, EGO, AUY. PAAS and SLW.
UPDATE: Everything just changed. Oil is out of control to the upside.
UPDATE II: I bought 5,000 DUG @ $24.44.
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Fly,
Where do you stand with FAZ?
I am long FAS. I have no bank shorts.
Does Dennis Kneale know he looks like that?
Just wondering…
GOLD
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/
bonds have been acting horribly all week. china is becoming a net seller of treasuries as they use their reserves to prop up their economy. of course, moron tim geithner accussing them of currency manipulation doesn’t help. expect a renminbi currency devaluation this year. it will lead to the curious combo of the dollar going up while bonds get destroyed.
short the renminbi by shorting CYB.
The bulls have had it wrong. As currencies crash (U.K., Spain, Italy, Russia, eastern block countries)and as earnings estimates come down equities will be the last place that money goes to hide apart from extremely high quality companies with good cash positions, cash flow, and little debt.
The dollar and gold will be where money is tucked away especially if the treasury department has problems getting investors to buy paper over the next 6-18 months.
Good call DGP and TBT are what you need….the new bull developing….
late call
Lance Lewis
12:20:00 PM
Position in gold, gold stocks
Party like it’s 1973?
Note the continued collapse of the SPX/Gold ratio below “1”, as gold ($897) soars above the S&Ps (822) in price.
The last time this “event” occurred was in 1973. Gold would go on to roughly triple in price over the next 12 months then. Will history repeat?
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/A1.%20T.woo/LANCE1.jpg
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Michael Paulenoff
12:05:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Gold Mining ETF Reaches New Recovery Highs
The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is taking its lead from the gold market this morning, rather than the equity market, which has propelled the gold mining index to a new recovery high.
More importantly, however, is that the price structure is attempting to hurdle a resistance plateau that represents the neckline of a base-like pattern that has developed during January.
The ability of the GDX to sustain the 32.50 to 31.00 area on any rest/digestion/pullback period argues for an “eventual” upside acceleration towards two optimal targets: 1) 35.00/30, and then to 2) 36.80-37.20. So far, so good — that after one hour of trading, the GDX has preserved the bulk of its opening gains and remains ABOVE the January breakout plateau at 32.30/50.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/A1.%20T.woo/pauly%20gdx%20107.jpg
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Bennet Sedacca
11:50:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Could the first wave of Treasury sell off be close to complete?
I stated when 10’s were at 2% and 30’s at 2.5% that I thought the secular bull run in Treasuries was over. I still feel that way, but markets don’t go in straight lines.
We are gaining on a 50% retracement of the recent spike.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/Theale/sg2009012341101.gif
So being short here could be dangerous as the cash 30 year is down a not-so-cool 22 POINTS in a month.
So those that heeded my opinion and got long TBT of PST may want to book gains.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/Theale/sg2009012341009.gif
Watch for a snapper.
MOS on fire today.
Lance Lewis
12:20:00 PM
Position in gold, gold stocks
Party like it’s 1973?
Note the continued collapse of the SPX/Gold ratio below “1”, as gold ($897) soars above the S&Ps (822) in price.
The last time this “event” occurred was in 1973. Gold would go on to roughly triple in price over the next 12 months then. Will history repeat?
chart
————–
Michael Paulenoff
12:05:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Gold Mining ETF Reaches New Recovery Highs
The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is taking its lead from the gold market this morning, rather than the equity market, which has propelled the gold mining index to a new recovery high.
More importantly, however, is that the price structure is attempting to hurdle a resistance plateau that represents the neckline of a base-like pattern that has developed during January.
The ability of the GDX to sustain the 32.50 to 31.00 area on any rest/digestion/pullback period argues for an “eventual” upside acceleration towards two optimal targets: 1) 35.00/30, and then to 2) 36.80-37.20. So far, so good — that after one hour of trading, the GDX has preserved the bulk of its opening gains and remains ABOVE the January breakout plateau at 32.30/50.
chart
———————————
Bennet Sedacca
11:50:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Could the first wave of Treasury sell off be close to complete?
I stated when 10’s were at 2% and 30’s at 2.5% that I thought the secular bull run in Treasuries was over. I still feel that way, but markets don’t go in straight lines.
We are gaining on a 50% retracement of the recent spike.
chart
So being short here could be dangerous as the cash 30 year is down a not-so-cool 22 POINTS in a month.
So those that heeded my opinion and got long TBT of PST may want to book gains.
chart
Watch for a snapper.
What’s up with DXO? On fire…
Bought 1,000 BAC
Yes I am watching DXO I bought it last week on Flys recommendation, then I had to go out and buy DUG to cover, I sold off early this morning DUG along with SRS for a profit. Will sell this DXO if it gets back to breakeven 3.03. I guess it is rising along with gold even tho Fly says commodities are not being affected by flight from T-Bills
JAKE—where do you live are you in New York?
I posted this earlier but we moved to a new thread. Also can I ask how old you are?
.
Why not load up on UDN?… it hasn’t even jumped yet, and GLD is spiking.
The illusionary inflation trade is on, for now.
FLY-
Check out the aluminum/steel plays too. Aluminum prices have fallen off of the 10 year cliff, supply is really high, but right now they’re on the plane to Pamplona.
I’ve got a low cost basis on KALU I’ve been building over the past week. Fundies are ugly but it’s got room to run.
DXO anyone?
Woo Hoo Go DXO Go!
uco is better
I am currently watching 17 energy stocks… 16 of them are green +1%. Guess which one isn’t…..
XOM
Lady Guenevere Says:
Yes I am watching DXO I bought it last week on Flys recommendation
———————————–
reeeeeaallly? did not you tell us how smart you are trading etfs up and down and having great business with your tracking company? now i see you just follow fly recommendations…. try keeping track of what you say…
GS shorts are facked
maybe its the hard assets trade that is on right now…
long uym
Fly:
I don’t even know why I am eyeing any stocks, but could you give me PPT ratings on the following:
CPO
ETN
KEP
TII
WMS
Thanks in advance,
Jim
Funnel is jammed, bulls and bears trampling each other to death
I do my own trades thank you very much. Once in a while I will buy something Fly recommends.
What is a tracking company? You cannot spell I presume, I am doing well with my business and what does that have to do with day trading some ETF’s up and down?
Whoever you are….your an idiot, everyone here has bought something that Fly has suggested, thats why they are here.
Go harass someone else.
.
Chips and latex mattresses (TPX) are strong too.
rolling over
trade the UYM off the IYM chart…its in a consolidation here…like to see a SOS>>>>> 3m share day with wide price spread
Bulls are not dead!
spelling mistake vs woman smoking weed… LadyG what are you smoking?
Lady G…take that “where do you live and how old are you” shit to Adultfriendfinder.com, they will even tell you the guys cock size
ToLadyG Says:
spelling mistake vs woman smoking weed… LadyG what are you smoking?
Click to Edit (10 seconds)January 23rd, 2009 at 1:46 pm
______
Lady G owns a “Trucking company” not a “Tracking company” ….it was a spelling mistake you dimwit…..
I’m unworthy of the Fly’s footsteps. Picked up DUG @ 24.27
DXO- uses oil contract 6 months out
UCO- near term contract
trade accordingly
Anon-
Are you still long FAZ? What’s your plan? Are you gonna hold over the weekend?
went through an nde recently. this is what i saw.
a bright light at the end of a tunnel. in the light, there was a being, dressed in a long white robe with sandals. liberace music playing in the background, in his right hand, he was holding a stone tablet, in his left hand a glass of cognac. the bold letters in the tablet said,
FLY
DOW 13000 IN 2009.
will reveal the rest of what the tablet said later.
GDX is another way to play gold. Miners are levered 2 to 1 to gold.
a bright light at the end of the…funnel?
maybe it said DOW 1300?
I must admit financials are looking bullish today. But you know how it is with the market. Just when you think you know which way we are going, you get shaken out. Added more FAZ $61.97
Welcome back from the brink, Chivas.
WB Chivas!
I hope you aren’t serious about the NDE.
AFG, AXA, AMG for individual financials reversals.
CEO looks good for oil bullish play.
CAP … I think you’re a fucking liar.
When you have a pair balls, you’ll post your fucking exact trades at the exact time of purchase … every time. Right now all you’re doing is hedging.
Welcome back Chivas.
DONNY – I am long SLV and GDX in size. What do I need to hedge ? Short banks are the way to go. Sooner or later BAC JPM C WFC are going down. Its like betting that eventually DONNY is going to die. Its inevitable. I am a patient man.
CAP-
I don’t deny that the banks you list are all going to ZERO. That could very well happen. Fuck … I knew they were doomed a long time ago. However, it ain’t gonna happen right now.
We’re gonna trade higher next week. Inflation is back.
unloaded all HK, flipping short if it breaks $18.90
GGN BTFO and a nice divie …. betcha Mario is next up in Baron’s this weekend!
I think the “smart money” that thought they were getting into USO might have had second thoughts by the end of the day.
However, I did ask if USO was a buy @ $23 and was kind of advised politely no.
I’m still pondering that question