See how stupid gold is? Gold is the champion of losers. Just when it looks like that fucker is about to shoot for the stars, it collapses and vomits on your shoes.
As for oil: this is getting ridiculous. Looking at the equity valuations in the energy sector, you’d think oil is $80 per barrel. It is absolute lunacy buying oil stocks up here. It’s almost as if people think there will be no ramifications, no price to pay, now that oil is down 65% in 5 short months.
Please.
As for the general market:
It’s in the midst of a standard, consolidation like pullback. All of my longs are behaving rather lukewarm, with exception to C; she’s kicking ass. At the present, my favorite long ideas are PFE, C, TBT, ITW and VCLK.
My shorts are just sitting, in their respective idiot boxes, waiting to get beheaded. I just know it. KIM, VNO, XOM and a variety of brainless inverse etf’s are not performing. The only etf that looks as if it wants to deball a few bulls is SRS. Indeed.
I should be shorting gold stocks here, particularly LIHR, SA and AU. Maybe I’ll get around to it sometime today.
For the most part, ag stocks should be shot and buried, yet they’re bouncing too. The textbook says to buy SMN here, now that gold, which is a strong component in the etf, is breaking down. Much to my chagrin, I am long SMN and not loving it—thus far.
When 2009 is over, mark my words, there will be ample amounts of pain to spread and share amongst those who sucked the pants off of Gov’t and bought stocks. With my money, I’d rather throw it into large vats of acid, than go all in on the long side.
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Fly,
What are your thought on XOM puts?
Particularly the 80’s, whether Jan. or Feb?
Thanks.
Long GD Short LMT is a good swap.
No options for me.
I am short XOM.
Mr. Fly:
Is there an update on The PPT rollout?
GS, MS very strong=late day rally.
Be careful with shorts, except gold.
Any thoughts on the new MVIS SHOW-WX website and product?
PPT is just about done. We are putting finishing touches.
Here is PPT top 10, with no market cap screen:
1 NPK 4.20 5.10 4.58 -0.65% 21.49%
2 AIRV 4.20 4.95 4.52 6.10% 11.88%
3 LPHI 4.60 4.24 4.45 -0.67% 17.11%
4 OCN 4.25 4.40 4.32 -0.46% 7.46%
5 BKR 4.10 4.55 4.29 2.88% 30.79%
6 EZPW 3.90 4.75 4.26 -0.70% 34.38%
7 TSYS 4.30 4.10 4.21 6.58% 30.34%
8 EMS 4.20 4.20 4.20 6.60% 22.45%
9 SUR 3.60 5.00 4.19 6.62% 27.36%
10 CPSI 3.95 4.50 4.18 -0.71% 12.97%
MVIS product will be good. But CES is not what it used to be. And, don’t forget, they might need to raise money soon.
Thx for your candid summary of the flux and leaning, including the review of tickers.
gold is for idiots….
hmmmm…
Jim Goldman is a fruitpie
Breakdown in southwest banks, led by CFR
PPT has them all at a sell:
1 FFIN 2.45 3.67 2.96 -9.76% 0.00%
2 BOKF 2.50 3.51 2.92 -1.02% 37.74%
3 FFNW 2.85 2.63 2.75 -1.08% 41.75%
4 CBSH 2.05 3.66 2.73 -10.49% -16.00%
5 UMBF 2.00 3.67 2.70 -10.60% 3.85%
6 TONE 2.55 2.78 2.65 -1.12% 65.63%
7 FSNM 2.55 2.60 2.57 -1.15% 66.88%
8 COBZ 1.90 3.37 2.52 -6.67% 37.70%
9 CFR 1.50 3.82 2.47 -19.81% -13.33%
10 IBOC 1.05 4.16 2.36 -16.31% 7.76%
11 SBIB 1.35 3.39 2.20 -17.60% 18.92%
12 TCBI 1.45 3.20 2.18 -7.63% 17.84%
13 PRSP 1.05 3.59 2.12 -17.83% -19.70%
14 GFG 1.40 2.80 1.99 -8.29% 16.37%
Don’t worry folks just a “Hormone Imbalance”
Gotta be CEO speak euphemism for “My Shit ain’t right”
That vampiric LPHI seems to be topping the charts for weeks now.
Surely it rests nestled in the busom of Olde Nick?
________
Fly, perhaps you’re incorrectly making the assumption that $147 oil was fully priced in at the top? If it wasn’t, then valuations may not be quite as absurd as you think.
Fly has no understanding of a fiat based money system. Without gold there is no base. Learn some history kid.
and keep shorting oil. LMAO. ERX at 48
Not for nothin’ but,
If Ed HOC-kule steroids out over $20.48 here, on volume, he will in short order call unsportmanlike holding on San Diego all the way to $26.75.
He will then frogmarch off an additional 15 yards against the Chargers for “unnecessary hugging in the end zone” to the tune of $35.00 (and his downtrend line).
That’s a near 75% move. Not bad for a muscle bound zebra, no?
_________
^^
Hilarious keep em comin
Oil stock valuations????
COP is trading at 5x’s 09 earnings.
shorting oil is about as fresh of idea as an episode of Charles in Charge.
FTK looks like it’s life is being renewed.
I will.
Back to oil:
Rig makers have make or break contracts pinned to $60 crude. Most of you idiots misconstrue short term strength with strong fundamentals. Then, when your face gets ripped off, you wonder why.
There will be many, many bankruptcies in the oil/gas space, unless oil can climb rapidly.
By the way, on the subject of “fiat currency”–all currencies are “fiat” since none are backed by anything.
Last I checked, the dollar was still supreme.
5x what?
Do you know what they will earn? Are you that stupid to believe 5X is real?
I bet your type believed the homebuilder PE’s after the implosion in housing.
Fuck off.
Heh-heh.
Heh-heh.
He right, Fly. Well, al-mose.
ERX steel undah Foaty-ate, but not by much, too-day.
And she smokes gooooood, dawg.
____________
The PPT likes financials. EZPW is a pawn shop/payday loan lender. LPHI lets you sell your life insurance policy for cash. CBSH and UMBF are both Kansas City based banking companies controlled by the Kemper family banking dynasty.
All financials, but an odd mix.
gold can be @ $35.00 hows that for a base ?? gotta go check on my jobs …
just like to add the gold miners are heavily hedged with gold to help themselves out of bad times ..not sure what that means to stock values ..since im an idiot ,and i dont care ..
oh yeah, 1 phone call and times have become good again
Interesting: MVIS above $2.
I will sell short NOV, when it hits $30.
ok – Cut their earnings in half. COP made 2.50/share for the 4th quarter alone in horrid oil/gas pricing environment. shit, that was at an average of 45 oil.
so very worst case scenario, COP trades at 9 times earnings here with a 4% yield. really outrageous valuations there.
Seriously – you and your PPT tinker toy need to be retooled. This market will end the year higher because it wants to go higher and managers will outspend you shorts.
Keep pissing in the wind.
Oil stocks are way ahead of themselves. There will be a sharp reversal soon. XOM is tired, old and hangin’ out with gay idiots.
FLY WHERE CAN I BUY THE IBANKCOIN TSHIRTS?
PPT has been bullish on oil stocks, so you know.
You can’t take eps and just cut it in half, moron. How would that worked out for you in the homies, circa 2006, homie?
Right.
No, you need to do more slicing. Actually, you need to account for the lunatic contracts that were locked in when crude was north of $100. You also need to understand that eps will be negative for many,many names.
You are too young/stupid to understand how fucked the sector is. You probably never even experienced a downturn.
Oh, by the way, C, WM, LEH, BSC, MER and others had really cool EPS’s a year and a half ago. How’d the slice it in half strat work then?
PPT top 10 industries:
No. Industry Tech. Fund. Hybrid Hybrid Change – Daily Hybrid Change – Weekly
1 Major Integrated Oil & Gas 2.44 4.79 3.44 -7.07% 4.10%
2 Water Utilities 3.09 3.79 3.38 -1.85% 34.00%
3 Beverages – Brewers 2.54 4.44 3.34 -0.68% 27.95%
4 Shipping 2.51 4.31 3.30 0.09% 31.82%
5 Industrial Equipment & Components 2.45 4.47 3.30 -2.69% 21.76%
6 Machine Tools & Accessories 2.43 4.48 3.29 0.18% 33.05%
7 Entertainment – Diversified 2.54 4.30 3.28 -1.64% 26.60%
8 Technical Services 2.62 4.16 3.27 -0.77% 25.09%
9 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 2.43 4.40 3.26 -5.88% 7.26%
10 Consumer Services 2.75 3.94 3.25 3.70% 14.26%
Gold is in a bear market. Simple. Lower highs lower lows. In a delflation, everything goes lower.
Maybe Steve Jobs will show at the CES – his cough is improving. Fade Fly is the offspring of “Fly Jr”.
pray tell how COP made 2.50/share in the 4th quarter as oil/natty gas prices collapsed???? you can’t. $38 oil is about as sustainable as 140 was. Keep shorting it.
I told you to buy erx at 27 and you were shorting it – how’d that work out for ya?
The entire system is going to reinflated in the second half. Inflation in 2 years is much better than deflation now. Keep shorting. Guess you buy last years winner huh?
as for Home Builders? please.
I’ll take my chances with COP balance sheet and business model over MVIS, HANS and any other bullshit stock you’ve been touting, kid.
Call me kid again and I will punch your cyber mustache off.
Go ahead, do it.
Since you mentioned it: HANS has outperformed your bullshit COP, as of late.
Commodity drops have a lingering effect. Don’t expect it to rape the balance sheet right away. God willing, you will keep believing that Larry Kudlow shit that you are espousing and effectively wipe your pathetic 4 fig account out!
Can we get back to politics please.
Sold my GMO for some TNA, to go with my oil and solar plays.
Fly:
What do you think… Take profits on Oil Wednesday BEFORE or AFTER the Crude Inventories?
ZM
While oil may be strong right now, those oil companies are still fucked. A lot of them took out loans based on the expected income that high priced oil will bring them. They may be able to hold off for a bit, but when it comes time to refinance…
As for gold, I can see why a short here would make sense, but only in the short term. As long as there’s no consumer spending and banks making loans, the supply of money is actually low despite the government dumping as much as they can into it. Velocity baby. Velocity.
Shorting SA would not make sense, they have no debts and plenty of cash. All they do is drill new holes making their proven reserves even bigger. SA is nothing like the other two. They can continue to operate for a lot longer without raising equity or incurring any large losses. They have a very large gold and copper deposit.
Not the best gold stock to short.
AU and LIHR though, go right ahead.
volume was light last week on the uptrend and it is noticable heavier today and the market is down. Was DD right about day 55? or 58? or 60? whatever it is…
Or we gonna go up at the end of the day? Any ideas?
Sir Fly,
I got this via the folks at US Global Investors regarding gold price behavior (dated Dec. 30):
The price of gold jumped up Monday to a high near $900 an ounce after Israel continued its air strikes on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip. The thinking is that gold represents a safe haven as tensions rise in the Middle East. Using the same logic, the oil price also rose Monday.
In a research note on Monday, Bob Hoye looks back at gold and military conflicts. His conclusion is that there’s a price spike as new buyers come into the market, but it tends to be short-lived and followed by a gradual price decline until the conflict’s resolution is seen. At that point, he says, these conflict buyers sell, leading to a sharper price drop until oversold conditions are created, and then the market starts up again.
You know oil is going to trade up and down $30/barrel. No fundamentals.
Apple is acting like a real cock-smoker at the $95 level.
BEHOLD the comeback in SLV. Bow down to the Silver God.
Time to buy TSO again.
And keep an eye on WNR. If it can hondle its way over $8.40 here, its a purchase as well.
_________
LMAO at HANS.
Let me guess, you play CNBC’s kindergarden stock picking show. Hope you win this week’s decoder ring for first prize.
COP’s balance sheet is perhaps only second to XOM’s.
Master Fly, How about taking half of TBT off the table?
SLV : bear market.
Fly is busy chasing his tail right now.
At $92.88, SPY is hitting its uptrend line (started at the lows of 12/29 (85.62) and running through the candlebottom lows of 12/30 (87.80), 1/02 (89.92) and this morning (91.96)).
Holding.
____________
You ask me why I’m scratching my head?
Both CBL and the SRS I bought to hedge it are up today.
SRS makes sense with TBT rising, btw.
_________
Byron Wien is bullish, predicting a 33% rise in S&P for the year. Also says oil is heading to $80 and gold to $1200.
Story on Bloomberg.
Predicting is for suckers.
This is a serious question. How is a mere mortal like me to interpret the PPT results when, for example, currently majors are the top ranked industry but fly is shorting XOM and hates COP, etc.
I realize the majors ranking is down today, but still up for the week.
Or am i missing something?
The PPT is a program, which ranks stocks according to certain parameters. In other words, it has a life of its own.
Thus far, it has be right on oil, while I have been wrong.
It happens.
Naturally, i’m sure you won’t agree with what an algorithm gives you all of the time. I suppose it just means there is a factor influencing your decisions that is difficult/impossible to integrate into the PPT.
can somebody show me how to lose ?? i dont know how