Back to the real world:
Everyday this week and next, your favorite corporations will send a spokesman to the proverbial roof top, in order to scream: “we’re fucked.”
This morning, FDX, NVLS, NUE, NSM, TXN, BRCM warned, just to name a few. Tomorrow it will be a whole new set of names.
See, aside from charts, and internet musings from former bears telling you the downward shift in equities is over, in the real world, where people actually live, things are grim.
For example: 58% of modified mortgage losers are back in trouble again. That’s right, Joey Bag O’ McMansion can’t afford his 6,000 foot idiot home. Despite the government forcing his local bank to keep him in the idiot house, he can’t fucking afford it.
Are you listening to me?
He can’t fucking afford it.
As a result, all of those modified mortgages are going to be classified as in “redefault.” How fucking queer is that?
Across the pond, in the U.K., their housing debacle is just getting started. Analysts predict U.K. homes to decline by at least 20%, slumping into 2011. In Hong Kong, property sales are reeling. Don’t even get me started on Japan.
In short, all signs point to an extended period of worldwide contraction, well into 2010. If that’s the case, what the fuck are you doing buying bullshit?
UPDATE: I sold out of my UYM, FAS and BGU positions. Raising cash.
UPDATE II: I am initiating a position in SRS, nibbling at 200 share blocks from $82.
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Absolutely terrible!
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The Fly is God.
Glorious
Well said, FLY
Oil to &10
Nat gas to 2.50
Who the fuck is buying right now? Don’t these idiots get it! it is a trap. A fucking trap. Another round of layoffs announced today. This bullshit rally will end soon then the bulls will being running from mother market as she proceeds to chop off their balls.
LOOKING For Drops in FDX & MET just to name a couple…
Bought puts on both at the end of day yesterday….Fingers crossed, Warning Cap on…
I’ll take the other side of that bet Fly.
Mark down 2010 as Shamwow!
The good news? I just saved a TON of money on my car insurance! By canceling my policy. WATCH OUT SUCKAS!! BWAHAHA!!
tool small pos in skf @ 106
It’s not the news…its the reaction to the news. Stop overthinking this!
We bounce from here…drop and pop baby. Nasdaq taking the lead once again.
Al Gore Rally in Progress
spot on kidstock…reaction to the news trumps…silly traders
Right. Let’s see how FDX reacts to the news.
We’re just coming to the end of another idiot spike in the sawtooth pattern downwards that we’ve been on for more than a year. ‘The Fly’ has called the inflection points better than anybody. I just hold on to my shorts and make the trend my ally. New lows in the new year. Don’t know when, don’t really care.
I’m loading up big time. Ultra short ETFs. BUY BUY BUY.
because there can easily be a 20% bear market rally at this point in time
Its time to buy not sell.
Why hinge the fate of the market on one stock? Its not as if FDX is breaking to new 52 week lows.
Shouldn’t you be doing the opposite – observing the market’s reaction to the stock?
Methinks your Time Machine is running low on Costanza.
Bought SMH, MU right at the open and just sold them for a 3% + gain.
Watching for a re-entry.
Fly-
I would say FDX is reacting to the news! Down 12%
About time something rational happens
I have no idea what the gov’t, the loan servicers or the (bag)holders of all this securitized debt are gonna do. But this shit, is about to become a lot worse in the upper class communities.
This was the most looming part of Mr. Dugan (Comptroller of the Currency) speech yesterday:
“Credit quality continued to decline across the board, with delinquencies increasing for subprime, alt-A, and prime mortgages – and the greatest increase in percentage terms was in prime mortgages. Similarly, total foreclosures in process increased, as did foreclosure sales, just as they had done in the previous quarter.”
Epic quote, kidstock: “Methinks your Time Machine is running low on Costanza.”
DRYS anyone or has this one been off everyone’s radar?
The game plan for daytraders in Dec. should be to put the Co’s that warn on a watchlist and if the pre-market and opening prices are not reacting badly then buy them for scalps. The bad news will be in them. See the chips.
Jake – Didn’t you recently say SRS was headed to 80? Did you pick up any for a quick 5 points?
Fly-
Whats up with that bitch HK. Up 18% today. Is it setting up for another chance to get short?
first mistake is expecting the market to be rational…a pullback is in order but we pound higher ultimately…kidstock…you ARE Costanza…
You know why it may not react like that, fly?
1. We’re down 50% already.
2. The Fed is going to take rates down to zero if it has to….. and monetaize
3. We know 09 is going to be a shit year.
The one big thing you need to consider is that the Fed is basically threatening people that if they hold cash they will end up getting fucked.
What you’re suggesting is that there is little to no human behavior when faced with zero interest rates and a Fed printing cash like there’s no tomorrow.
When that starts to hit home people will be rushing outta cash like a heard of elephants trying to get through a key hole.
Anyone buying now is just taking the tax-losses off the hedges and others getting out before the end of the year. Going MUCH lower.
As Mr T. sez: Fool!
We’re not down 50%.
39%.
Get back to me when we are down 50%.
Bought WNR @ 7.25 — Costanza this!
Based on the number of people here shorting, I am adding to TNA BGU FAS ERX on this pullback. Not to be rude, but when the majority of you fall into the same camp, its time to fade you guys.
I’m sure the market will wait for the all clear from the US Economy before putting in a bottom, just like it’s always done.
Oh wait, it’s never done that.
Not to be rude either, but the majority of you are bullish, not bearish.
You may be forced to suck your own cock again.
Just saying..
Okay, NAZ is holding up and SMH is up while the rest of the market sucks wind.
It’s a hammer in the forehead if one can’t read this tape today.
CAP…perhaps you simply are looking forward to sucking your own dick again?
… add the homies as moving +. See the etfs XHB,ITB.
Imagine how bad FedEx’s numbers would have been if oil wasn’t in free fall. They came out with the estimates when oil was much higher. To miss that big with oil down so much means no one is shipping anything.
The FED is following the same trap that the Japanese did in the nineties. Take a look at the Nikkei the last 20 years. Were they at a bottom in the early nineties? Fuck No!
DannyBoy – I’d suspect they already knew the majority of their fuel costs when they put out their original estimates. The airlines/shippers have tons of hegdes to lock in prices (for better or worse) for many quarters/years ahead.
Reaction to the news is key. I get frustrated as hell when financial armageddon is occuring before my eyes, I am net short, and men in polka-dot leotards run the market up 1000 points. Then I think wtf am I doing because the price action is telling me to change into my leotards and do a cash out refi on my house and short SRS to 10.
Either way the market is gay right now.
Those deadbeat fuckers that are re-defaulting need to go here
http://www.youwalkaway.com
Ah well, stopped out, fuck me, done until this afternoon
39%.
Get back to me when we are down 50%
Yep , you’re right, i was thinking of the OZ market and the US lows.
I actually don’t think most people here tare bullish. I’d say it’s skewed towards being a bear pit on he whole with some other changing their stripes since the rally last week.
I am sending 3 gay men and a dog dressed in hazmat suits to your office within the next hour, bulltards.
FAS breaking out
Everyday this week and next, your favorite corporations will send a spokesman to the proverbial roof top, in order to scream: “we’re fucked.”
This morning, FDX, NVLS, NUE, NSM, TXN, BRCM warned, just to name a few. Tomorrow it will be a whole new set of names…
Bring out your dead.
The majority of the people here are always bullish except for me and DevilDog, the bears are hard to find.
The VIX is waiting to blow to the up side very soon. It is down today even thought the markets are down. Tells me people having been listening to CNBC too much and buying the bullshit that everyone on that comes on the network spews. I bet the word bottom gets mentioned 50 times every segment. although the VIX is historically still on the high side, fear will once again enter this market. All these laid off people will realize that they will have to tap their 401k to survive and will have to go to cash.
Won’t happen till at least within 30 minutes of the auto bailout vote T MOE. Honestly, I would sell the rally before the outcome is clear, because it will be short lived, and may even vanish before that day’s close (this happened when the revised financial bailout passed).
“Donny” (Can I call you Don) says:
The FED is following the same trap that the Japanese did in the nineties.
NO THEY NOT, stop being an idiot.
The Japs fucked around for years until they took the bull by the balls. In fact there was a time when US treasury and the Fed was basically running Japan. Mieno, the BOJ governor held rates up for two years after the crash before he finally relented and backed off. Furthermore their banking system didn’t recap or clear the bad debts until the US helped them set up a sort of Resolution Trust corp. It took them towards the end of the decade before they reached ZIRP after which their market rallied quite a bit.
Take a look at the Nikkei the last 20 years. Were they at a bottom in the early nineties? Fuck No!
So fucking what, they dithered around for fucking years before they took action on anything including all that shitty interlocking shareholding. The other thing they weren’t allowed to do was fire people allowing the system to clear… unlike the US.
So stop talking like you know something about this subject, as you don’t.
Also, FAS will be +4% by the time the DJIA is green, which will happen soon
Fly – of course you are correct. Everyone knows we are fucked, every which way … don’t matter, while we may consolidate recent gains, we’re going higher over the next few months.
Then your correct description of the ‘real’ world will drag down stocks.
By then, the DevilsDog will be sporting a toe tag.
That said, I have plenty of shorts & will remain ‘hedged’ for the foreseeable futures. SRS included but selling options against it while she eats dirt.
J-
Just STFU. You’re a God Damn Idiot! I’m not even going to bother reading what you said.
Why don’t we just take out GM, GE, and JPM from the DJIA? That will fix the economy for sure.
Well Donny did read it otherwise Donny wouldn’t have commented. isn’t that right Donny.
T MOE – Please… Don’t try to bend reality to fit your position. I started to hedge my long positions (which I started to accumulate in October 2002) in December 2006. I went net short in early 2007 and fully short in mid 2007. I’ve covered my shorts in Mid October during the waterfall decline. Yes I covered too early. I reversed long again too early. I currently and long for a bounce or maybe the next bull. I suspect it’s only a bounce. I can’t divine the future I don’t try to. So please stop with the everyone here is bullish stuff. Thanks.
Comments are textbook.
Case study time.
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Holy shit, CBL’s giving me early Christmas, ovah heah.
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j – why are you always picking on Donny? Pick on me instead. I enjoy his youthful exuberance. Thanks.
I’m no longer going to fight this. I sold my iETF’s for a loss, and will hold my powder until the orgy is over, and we get back to reality. I would go long, but that would be stupid in the face of an overbought rally, while the banks are on their way to more bailouts.
VIX is a bubble in itself and when, not if, it falls it will nosedive into the deep end as the Messiah Obama will cure all that ails us and provide 52″ HDTV’s to all homeless, wretched and poor…
Jake – early CBL Christmas for me too. Thanks!
T MOE – if you want to be in a 100% short position, why not take a lot of money off the table and sit in cash till the auto bailout blows over, then reapply. You may miss a few dip days, but there is a better chance what you’ll avoid is a few rip days.
get a really big bag of popcorn and sit back for the show
‘Washington Wonderland’
starring – ‘BO’
theme – ‘spend, print, spend, spend, print, spend spend and print some more!!!
supporting cast –
fat gutted and big assed spenders of your money – ‘there’s no end to doin’ good’
the press – ‘Everything is changed!!! – we threw water on the evil Bush of the West and he shriveled up and is dead at last!!!! Isn’t BO wonderful. Isn’t Michel beautiful. everything is OK now, everything is beautiful – and for our special report tonight we have some children picking flowers in the park!!!’
the States – ‘help us o great and wonderful BO’
the children – ‘free health care at last!! free lunches!! free college!!’
the old – ‘free pills!!!!’
the poor – ‘free housing!!!! – let’s have some more kids!!!!!’
the middle class – ‘my federal income tax rate went down!!! but my property tax just doubled and my gas tax went up and my electricity tax tippled and now the sales tax went up and my school tax doubled and there is a toll on the bridge and the cops are handing out tickets like no tomorrow and I just sold some stock and my capital gains tax doubled and what the hell is a sewer tax anyway? oh well, I’m so happy, my income taxes went down!!!!!!’
mom – ‘Honey, hamburger has gone up so much lately – we are going to have beans and dogs again tonight, ok? and I found a sewing machine on sale and I am going to make some new clothes for the kids ! Isn’t everything great!!!’
aunt Maybell – ‘did you see that review on the back page of the NYT’s entertainment section – something about a war in India and a nuke went off in Pakistan?’
grandpa – ‘what the hell!!! – dow 2000 again???!!!’
cousin Eddie – ‘where the hell is the jobs section – will somebody shut those fuking kids up! – bad ‘nuf that I have to sleep on the god damn couch! – did that cat just shit in my shoe?!!!’
surprise ending!!! U’ll be on the edge of your toilet seat for the whole show!!! Stay tuned for the exciting conclusion!!!!
Picked up some DUG @ 31.43
For J, Grandpa picked up some DUG.
I too think Donny’s 3rd person is funny not offensive.
And his name is his name. What does J stand for? Share with us.
Did anyone else see that we’ve already burned through the first 350 billion of the bailout. And Paulson is chomping at the bit for the 2nd installment.
Jake – Didn’t you recently say SRS was headed to 80? Did you pick up any for a quick 5 points?
I don’t think that was me. I’m not a fan of SRS at the moment. Or any short ETF for that matter.
CBL (mall REIT) is screaming right now, btw.
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Someone(s) with big azz barrell of dry powder could have moved MOS a couple dollars more to the upside…they already ran it up from $29 to $32, $2 of that move was on 350K shares.
No volume on that beeotch this morning.
Yogi-
I come in here to have fun, and talk about ideas. NOT to be chastised by some old, bitter, motherfucker, living down under. If I wanted to grow up, I’d spend more time at Barry’s blog. Maybe that’s were J should go … they love to talk about monetary policy over there.
Not to be rude either, but the majority of you are bullish, not bearish.
Not to cause offense, but you are the 51% shareholder of the comment section in my book (and, as underlined by you some days ago) and therefore, the board is “net bullish” right now.
And it’s not just you and your Zombie.
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Anyone buying now is just taking the tax-losses off the hedges and others getting out before the end of the year. Going MUCH lower.
As Mr T. sez: Fool!
Attend to thine own parlour mirror.
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ERX!
It’s Christmas time in Houston, Tex!
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Speaking of zombies, check out this baby (it’s cool):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrHXdM9f13k
A modified Datsun with an electric motor that smokes a variety of cars at the drag strip. The torque is insane!
Imagine how bad FedEx’s numbers would have been if oil wasn’t in free fall. They came out with the estimates when oil was much higher. To miss that big with oil down so much means no one is shipping anything.
I cannot imagine!
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ERX will get a big jump in the days before the 17th, also.
Covering a few shorts that I have had on for a while now. Like GS and COF. Will continue to hold some GS shorts into earnings next week just in case they shit the bead. Will go long the VIX if it goes to 55 looking for a bounce. I am going to sit back and see where today goes. 60% cash 40% short. Still short XOM, MCO, GS, COF and SPY. I have taken some losses during this rally but I am still in it to win the war
more DUG@ 31.31
sometimes i think DEVILDOG has been right all along ,but in a totally different timeframe.
DevilDog,
are you Atilla?
CAP is just right!!
TMoe, you are too STUPID to win the war, being “net short” near a GENERATIONAL BOTTOM.
Will you guys relax? Its not as terrible as you guys make it sound.
Every economy makes mistakes, and we’ll come out of this as well. While shorting shitty stocks is a good idea, being 100% short is a terrible idea now.
Buy stocks that make sense, like NVDA, AAPL, BRCM…which have tons of cash and no debt. While they may warn today, there will be a tmie next year when they rebound, and then you’ll see 2X or 3X returns.
And Fly, dont talk like you know everything. Get out of your basement and get a real job.