For the record, I do not think we will start nosediving here. That’s too easy. Emotional rallies are hard to stomp out. As evidenced by the action in the semis this morning, there comes a point when people are sick of bad news and want to believe everything is priced in.
Early this morning I sold some longs. However, just in case, once again, I am throwing some long trades on again. I have a funny feeling they will try to gun this market later on today. I bought ROM and TNA.
Despite oil being cheap as hell, oil stocks are responding positively. For now, it makes no sense to get in front of the train. Bet against those names when the train has stopped, not when it’s charging ahead.
With that in mind, I stopped buying SRS, which I initiated this morning.
Look, just because I think the market is vastly overpriced does not mean it will collapse today. There is room for everyone to be right, considering what time frame you are looking at. Most people that I know, who are bullish, are long rentals, not long term positions.
With my money, instead of guessing when the market will drop, I rather keep both long and short positions, then use idle cash to scalp short term trades, in either direction.
For now, my bias is to be short, with a careful eye on the idiot jumping around in his green leotards.
UPDATE: Buying ERX, sub $40.
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Look at how far they can run MOS on 1.8M shares open at $29 now at $32.30
That reminds me of baby vomit.
Fly
Why the fuck are you still playing so hard, man? You’re up 70/80% and the end of year is around the corner. this market will fuck people that are trying to figure it out in the middle term. This is a very very short term market that dickwad short term chartists play or very long term dudes. Don’t let tape reading fuck you over each day.
I bought both tna and tza early this morning as both seemed to be going up and down. I just sold my tna (33.25) and its going higher, meanwhile tza which I have at 61 is way down to 55. I am hoping technicals will kick-in as both are over-sold/over bought. I guess you are right tho, it feels like the over all market is still bullish today…for whatever reason. Of course there’s a juicy scandal brewing.
C is trading like a champ today.
Take off your bear hat and put on your neutral hat, Fly. Do you think that in an upmarket C can break through the government’s 10.50 option strike or is that a top of sorts?
I always go hard.
added some “X” to the portfolio@ 36.38 small posistion
Sold GU at 2.55.
X has been running like horse hopped up on crack.
Flat on the day on a big FDX miss… it just seems as if sentiment has changed to a “buy the bad news” kind of market.
People are bargain hunting.
There’s strength in tech, and even the pending home sales data was better than expected… I repeat, pending home sales data was better than expected.
Aside from the logical reasons about why we should be going down, what’s important now is the psycholgical reasons that could push us higher. If people start to think that they’ve “missed the bottom” and panic buyers come in, that could ultimately push the market much higher than where it should be.
But another thing is that bull markets are built on “walls of worry.” As long as there are plenty of Devildogs still around, the market could continue to inch higher.
-DT
fly,
im holding skf and x …X is keeping me up should i release skf and buy later or keep it
Agree with DT.
i released it @ 102
mdawsz – Agreed. It ends when it ends. Back to work.
I am going to cover a few shorts that I have had on for a while now. Like GS and COF. Will continue to hold some GS shorts into earnings next week just in case they shit the bead. Will go long the VIX if it goes to 55 looking for a bounce. I am going to sit back and see where today goes. 60% cash 40% short. Still short XOM, MCO, GS, COF and SPY. I have taken some losses during this rally but I am still in it to win the war
SKF is trading near 52 week lows…I’d stay away from that one.
I’m not touching shit here. Cash. Lunch. Cigar. This is my trading strategy for the remainder of 2008.
How many times I told you to buy TNA and USO?
I said before…just go to check the comment.
Finally! you got me!
DT..perhaps we are looking at a “new world economy”…ever heard that one before?
I’ve taken advantage of this relatively dull market to collect irrefutable photographic evidence that Karen Tso and Sophie Marceau, are indeed closely related.
Karen Tso:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/xc/57312370.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF193CC300C081D9F47006FC1377E203C6ACABBB3D2B3C86FBB9BA55A1E4F32AD3138
Sophie Marceau:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/23857189@N03/2593254584/sizes/l/in/photostream/
Tso:
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://cache.gettyimages.com/xc/81639165.jpg%3Fv%3D1%26c%3DViewImages%26k%3D2%26d%3D17A4AD9FDB9CF1934B869679A269F9CCA65E88E62A20D0285A5397277B4DC33E&imgrefurl=http://www.jamd.com/image/g/81639165&usg=__-znm-R86ZJEQo_fwv0IXEDkcAT4=&h=594&w=373&sz=35&hl=en&start=74&um=1&tbnid=by2dbVoJnd80hM:&tbnh=135&tbnw=85&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dkaren%2Btso%26start%3D60%26ndsp%3D20%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN
Marceau:
http://i227.photobucket.com/albums/dd81/jasonbellevue/Sophie_Marceau.jpg
I rest my case.
DT wins again!
check out this lolfed article on GGP.
they decided it’d be hi-lair to be “Taking out mortgages on its own properties… Paying back those mortgages with even larger mortgages, on other properties”.
Last Friday – up reversal on 500k job losses .. today up on warnings
change in character .. take note
Someone shove some mustard seedlings in Kudlows yap
As long as Billy Mays is there to steer this “new world economy” we’re golden.
Oh, and the video professor dude… we need him as well.
And, for good measure, fuck Dennis Kneale.
-DT
I like all the assholes giving advice to Fly.
“Don’t do that Fly… you should do this…”
Lots of gayness here. And you’re up how much? STFU
LOADING UP ON FAZ RIGHT HERE
SORRY FOR THE CAPS LOCK_BLACKBERRY IS FUCKED
good move Fly, so now that your in Fly Jr.’s ERX pick from last week, will he be reinstated? it’s healthy to have a black with the white…
Wow Jake
from Smoking gun site
Obama Senate Seat For Sale?
Feds: Blagojevich saw Obama’s vacated job as a “valuable thing”
DECEMBER 9–The criminal complaint filed today against Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich contains a remarkable section detailing the Democratic politician’s alleged attempt to cash in on his ability to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by President-elect Barack Obama. Attached to the U.S. District Court complaint is an FBI affidavit, excerpted below, alleging that Blagojevich was caught on wiretaps noting that the Senate seat “is a fucking valuable thing, you just don’t give it away for nothing.” He was also recorded saying that unless “I get something real good,” he would appoint himself to the vacancy. “I’m going to keep this Senate option for me a real possibility, you know, and therefore I can drive a hard bargain. You hear what I’m saying. And if I don’t get what I want and I’m not satisfied with it, then I’ll just take the Senate seat myself.” According to the surreptitiously recorded conversations, Blagojevich spoke with associates about the possibility of trading the Senate post for either an ambassadorship or a Cabinet post. The Democratic politician, according to the affidavit sworn by FBI Agent Daniel Cain, “analogized his situation to that of a sports agent shopping a potential free agent to various teams.” Blagojevich, 51, and his chief of staff, John Harris, were arrested this morning on political corruption charges. (21 pages)
buying more FAZ here.
dumped DUG @32.19
DT…did you purposefully exclude the MagicJack and the shamwow from the new world economy? I hope this was just a simple oversight on your part.
did sombody say …FAZ_WOW !! come on fly..you have the right idea..play it out..
Dow printing a decent head and shoulders pattern here.
Yes that’s the scandal I mentioned early in this post…Blagojevich…also was considering a cabinet seat in Obama’s group or an Ambassadorship. One of his aids suggested ‘Secretary of Energy” as it paid better.
This sounds a lot like New Orleans…both these two cities compete for the most corrupt yet STUPID people in government. I know more about New Orleans because its next door to me here in Houston. We got a LOT of those stupid people moving here after Katrina.
Of course you cant leave out Detroit !
losing patience with ERX.
Oil looks top heavy.
I will start to nibble on SKF very soon
Fuck everyone on this thread.
Buying more FAS here.
And ERX.
_______
Off to a meeting.
___
What the fuck is this all about now! (On Drudge)
GRAND JURY SUBPOENAS ISSUED ON REZKO/OBAMA LAND DEAL
If this shit is serious everything is in trouble.
Fly…just a reminder…never buy 3X etf’s again. You asked me to remind you of this from time to time.
I love it Fly
Today is a slow day for your superior blog
Excellent!!!
ARREST THE PRESIDENT.
On that news, Jake is buying stocks.
Oh, the irony.
Good looking out Pete.
You know, I like most people are sick of politics, but is this shit right?
“CHICAGO – Federal authorities arrested Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich Tuesday on charges that he brazenly conspired to sell or trade the Senate seat left vacant by President-elect Barack Obama to the highest bidder.”
You’ve got to be kidding me? WTF!
Consumer stocks taking it arrears
CLX
PG
CL
Donny:
So what? The man is simply trying to make a decent living.
Adding to ERX
Quick fact:
The PPT jumped by an average score of 14% yesterday and registered a buy rating early yesterday.
The last time it did that was Friday, the day after Thanksgiving.
NOTE: PPT is now registering a sell for the overall market, at 2.97
adding erx?
I went long a bunch, but feel like it’s a loser.
I hope you are right.
The Fly Says:
Donny:
So what? The man is simply trying to make a decent living.
What the Fly is trying to say is, its no different from him receiving Mets season tickets from Chart Addict in order to make him a tabbed blogger.
Is the Gov of Illinois a Republican or a Democrat?
this political news seems pretty bad, the nutcracker prosecutor from the Plame affair is taking the lead on this. He’s a right royal hard nosed prick who has serious political cover because he went after Bush’s cronies.
the trouble is that no one knows where this leads to and it’s pretty dangerous for Obama seeing there is all this legal focus on his state.
The Dems can’t paint Patrick Kennedy as some sort of GOP operative gone amuck. that’s all stocks need now.
Where the hell is everyone?
T Moe:
Is the pope a freaking catholic? Of course he’s a dem from Illinois. they wouldn’t know how to spell GOP there.
I killed them all.
I’m awaiting moderation.
Senor Fly, the Automobile Commissar job is up for bids. I take a look at the Panama Canal webcams daily and those container ships keep on shipping – odd, no?
Funny how not one of the news channels or web sites mention that he is a Democrat or have a D at the end of his name. If it was a republican that would be the first thing they would mention. I am not a political person, but boy is there bias
Buy the dips!!! At this point nothing can take the market down. I suspect this trend will continue until the 50 MA comes into play. Would love to get short, but shorts are not working right now. We may get a chance at some SRS in the high 60s soon.
i’m long DIG as of this morning. ERX is a little too aggressive for a part-timer, like myself.
i think energy has room to run, though. between the stimuli, inventories, and production cuts, there seem to be several potentially bullish catalysts in the near-term. whereas the bearish argument is only ‘the world is ending’. yeah, we knew that.
Warning:
Money still flowing into t-bills: yields are down.
Today’s tell: GS
I hate having any long positions right now. We are so fucked (one would have to be insane to actually think we are anywhere near a bottom) and I’m itching to jump back on the short bus (pun intended), but I can’t. Not till this government auto bullshit blows over and the Arabs announce they’re cutting supply.
Selling 50% of this ERX. Fuck this shit.
The failblog bottom?
http://failblog.org/2008/12/09/fortune-fail-2/
I might as well go eat a sandwich and then go back to by cocaine binge, makes it more exciting. This tape is boring
Fuck that!!!
“The Fly” is getting gangster here.
Developing…
It’s been a long time since we’ve had some dirty a$$, domestic style politics. I do sometimes reminisce over those famous words spoken to the camera, “I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky”, finger wagging and all.
Though I virtually disagree with all their ideas, it’s real nice to see the demoncats back in power. What fun! What Laughter!
What’s next … Obama smoking weed in the White House.
True.
Democrats are a fucking riot. A regular moving carnival.
Chicago = Polanski’s Chinatown
i’d love to see obama rollin a blunt in the white hizzy.
Anyone want to short DRYS here?
Ok, I am less gangster than I was like 2 minutes ago.
Off to eat a sandwich.
Turkey on rye, kosher dill on the side?
It’s been over ten years since I had to go to a real meeting. So now I just go pick oranges instead.
Be forewarned — I’s going for a bike ride … every time I does, the market moves 5-10%
double bottom test for today, elevator up!!!
Everyone … put it on CNN or Fox News Now!
GS: yup, gotta watch for them 53c declines.
And this guy explored running for President
this press conference is great. the attorney is basically giving his opening statement on national tv before a jury is even selected.
Juice: thanks.
This is going to be interesting if the Dems allow him to fill the seat what does that say about the Demoncrats. And if he steps down from filling the seat he is basically saying he is guilty. can’t wait to see how this plays out
Im long DRYS..
1929-33
Rallies % : 52, 19, 27, 31, 39, 28
Declines % : 49, 30, 37, 39, 45, 41, 55
I am boring.
At least the Republicans only try picking up men in restrooms for gay sex.
Oblama will give everyone the same real estate deal that he got from Rezko. Everyone will get the same raise that he got his wife. Everything will be OK once Oblama gets in and gives everyone a pardon.
Obama is in so deep with Rez, Blag and the whole crew. Expect a news conference from his ass soon, if he has not had one already.
I hate headfakes, prefer the real thing soooo much more