Looking over my ‘fucked banks’ list, I see that more than a dozen names are enjoying double digits percentage gains, for the second day in a row. Today, the market is ripping thanks to [[JPM]] and the bargain basement price of $132 crude.
Nat gas is a piece of shit anyway. In no way do the fundamentals of natty dictate a price more than $7. The CNBC sponsored ‘tea bagging’ was erroneous to begin with. Guy Adami knows natural gas like Ben Bernanke knows a clean shave.
Oil is a different beast. Trust me, nothing would please me more than oil at $500 per barrel. This way, all of you poor fuckers would be forced to ride bicycles or horses, and shit. Instead, “The Fly” has to deal with traffic, every fucking day. Driving a car should be a privilege, not a God given right, just like medicine.
The way the banks are trading, you just know [[MER]] has their books cooked just right. No matter what they say, the shares will likely advance higher. Into this crescendo of fuckery, I want to sell. I initiated small positions in both [[SRS]] and [[SKF]] today, knowing I will be early. I will continue to add to the positions on dips.
I am being flame broiled on one short today: [[PACW]]. What a fucking joke.
Take a look at their earnings and witness the increase in loss provisions and a decline in deposits: a recipe for banking disaster. Without a doubt, I will short PACW up to $20.
Oil stocks are toasty on this dip. However, remember, ever fucking dip in energy related stocks has proven to be a worthwhile investment. Nonetheless, to hedge my bets, I went long [[VLO]]. It’s not a perfect hedge. But, should crude continue to drop, I believe sentiment will improve for the refiners: [[TSO]], [[SUN]], [[ALJ]], [[DK]] and [[HOC]]
Finally, gold is holding it gains. I still like [[DGP]]. And, last but not least, I am a big dicked buyer of [[FXP]], down at these levels.
NOTE: Short [[HDB]] looks good too.
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Fly how do the markets finish today…take a peak with your time machine.
I put this at the end of the comments on an earlier Fly post:
Dan Fitzpatrick
Inquiring Minds Want to Know if the Commodities Bubble Has Burst?
7/17/2008 12:33 PM EDT
“Big question of the day on CNBC seems to be whether the commodities bubble has burst. Aside from being unanswerable by all but the intellectually dishonest, the question presumes something that I am not willing to presume:
That commodities are, in fact, in a bubble.
Three consecutive down days–each one to a lesser degree than the last–doesn’t mean anything. This “ebb” in the ebb and flow of prices gives the media something to talk about between commercial breaks — and nothing more.
Here’s my bet. Three months from now financials will be lower, and commodities will be higher. Beyond that…flip the coin.
Why?
Because the fundamental dynamics that are pushing commodities like oil, natural gas and precious metals higher have not changed. Is there really any credible argument that we are not in an inflationary environment as money is printed with reckless abandon?
This isn’t the stuff that creates bubbles; this is the stuff that has long-lasting implications beyond the current news cycle.
And the fundamental dynamics that are pushing financials lower have not changed either. Until the smoke and mirrors are removed and there is some transparency rather than lip service, valuing the financial sector is pretty easy — just take what you are told by the companies at face value. In other words, just trust them.
Sure, that’ll work.
Stock is exchanged for cash…and that cash is used to buy other stock.
This is money rotation…not a change in fundamentals.
But it sure does keep us interested, doesn’t it?
Position: none”
The only thing I would change in Fitz’s post is that money is being printed not just with reckless, but with gay abandon.
-AC
calvino sell dia, spy and qqqq.
It may mean something when gold doesn’t crack with oil crashing. It also means something when SLB is still up. I don’t know what it means but we’ll know soon enough.
Bear Market Tip:
The biggest thing I have learned the past 6 months is the Rallies go farther than expected and the Dips go lower than expected.
Covered 90% of my SKF short and sold my Homies. I’m takin my gains and running away…
Juice I’m very curious on Fleck’s take, could you have him post here sometime 🙂
Happy talk and horseshit coming out of US talks with Iran will drive oil lower next week. Expect “meaningful progress” or some other such spintastic term to be repeated by the ever trustworthy Condi Rice & Co.
It won’t last, but it may put a basement floor in oil prices until the Olympics coverage reminds people of how many people live there, or until a hurricane cold cocks a few rigs and attention is again paid to reality.
fm MV- Bennet Sedacca
12:59:10 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
I keep hearing that…
Financials have bottomed and it’s my view that many brokers and banks are insolvent. Hey, I could be wrong. But consider this…
* Take a look at Merrill (MER), Lehman (LEH), Freddie Mac (FRE), Fannie Mae’s (FNM) 10 Q’s and tell me if a) they are solvent, b) you can actually understand it and c) what would happen if you asked them to liquidate?
* What is happening to the consumer? Is it better all of a sudden?
* Are they cheap on historical standards?
* Can they finance themselves?
* If they could finance themselves, would it be economic?
* Would you do a five-year derivatives trades with them?
I would love to see others chime in why I’m wrong. We’re now leaning short again after covering a while back, as I wrote on the buzz.
The only thing I can think of that saves them is getting rid of FASB 157.
Tuesday I covered a bunch of stuff on the break, and all but two financials stocks… I didn’t think any rally could last if we didn’t get some panic– but that may not be true– whether I get smaller or bigger in the short run will be a function of how sustainable I think the rally will be– right now I have no big opinion… could fizzle right away or last a few weeks… but it won’t be a replay of April/May– IMO, too much damage has been done… and the economy is worsening fast.
OIl is down because Boone Pickens is putting ten bil into wind. That scares the whole carapace of crap that is weighing down our country. They know that we do not need oil, coal and nat gas in these amounts. Nor do we need the old utilities. Nor nukular.
With every tick higher, the bulls put one more nail in their coffin. They need to break SPX 1290 & for that to become support, else the dam will break-eth.
The PPT has an executive order in for SPX 1290 by the weekend.
If the US actually does open an interest section in Tehran you sure as hell know Israel won’t be doing any bombing soon. But, if you read that the State Dep’t (Foreign Service) guy(s) in Tehran leave for a vacation you can assume the bombing will begin shortly.
A. I would hold off on FXP. The forex is signaling a world wide craze to come, especially in asia. You’ll see wild monkeys jumping on the train tommorrow.
B. I am looking forward, as the only major problem in the future may be for WB’s earnings. Until then, do the opposite of what is fundamentally right.
Update:
We’ve located Ronald McDonald. House surrounded. Weapons drawn.
Details to follow.
I will solve that crime.
Short Pacwest?…enjoy your 2 1/2 inch tuna cans piker
calvino sell lvs
JMHO
I’ve read a whole litany of bullshit here the last few weeks about oil. Trying to tell me I’m “wrong” about motherfuckin’ Crude and shit! It’s not that the longterm outlook for Dino Shit isn’t bullish, it’s the fact that every motherfuckin’ Joe on my street is pimping oil stocks, ETFs and shit.
Now here’s where the mis-perception starts. The Larry Kudlow types, seem to believe that this inevitable correction in Crude is somehow bullish for stocks … WRONG motherfuckers. These idiots that think this way will soon be ready for another dose of skull fucking, as the over leveraged, hickory dick, consumer, takes another mega shit on the door step of his local Best Buy store.
Make not motherfuckin’ mistake … IT’S ALL GOING DOWN!
BTW, In case you didn’t know, Banks are fucked.
BTW 2 ~ Dug now up 5% Thanks fuckers!
Too many stupid phuckers on this board don’t realize that oil has topped and is going back to $80 in the phucking blink of a pig’s eye.
You dumb phucks need to get your head out of your asses and wake up to the fact that oil was a bubble.
Puts on KBH may be a nice idea, she has run up from $13 to $18.50 in 2 days.
Thanks Juice 😀
Cover HES @ 95.50.
Edit: Sell DUG @ 35.60.
Good day.
Donny reminds me of an 8 year old kid who, while playing at recess, suddenly discovers he can say the word “mutherfucker” without getting in trouble when there is no adult supervision in the vicinity.
Funny because this happen close to options expiration.
Yesterday, USO put for 108 had a huge volume being bought at .90
I wonder why i didn’t buy a few. Well, fundamentally gold and black gold is supposed to move together. If you research properly, we can see a docoupling of the two, with high volatility (oil drops down then spikes a bit, rinse and repeat), this cause a downward pressure on gold even though gold prices are supposed to move inversely with inflation. Since most gold buyers hedge with oil shorts, oil need to bounce/hop around after the drop in oil. This creates a perfect storm, that most traders can’t profit from.
This doubts most technical traders, hedge funds, and they eventually jump on the train like today. So, i see the FIN going up for a while. Be Careful Now. As always, do what i do, have an eye USD/JPY live chart at times like today. “A substantial decline in USD/JPY (overall) followed by a SPIKE in USD/JPY can lead to a PPT-enduced hyperthermia for short sellers, leading to diarrhea.”
groupie.. you meant to say a substantial spike in usd/jpy is ppt at work.
LOL..this guy is a piece of work…Fly, apparently Trump has guys all over with tankers full of oil…he says:
“tankers all over the world holding oil they can’t get rid of…believe me he says.”
“Oil should be a $50-60 dollars. There is a vast supply of oil…it is all over the place”
WTF does Donald Trump know about tankers and oil?
Donald knows about oil you dumb phuck. He uses tons of the stuff on the rug he wears on his bald head.
Oil’s going to $80 in the blink of a pig’s eye.
trump is full of shit. much like this rally.
i suppose now that crude is ‘only’ 130, everyone is going to take their $600 and rush out to chevy dealerships and buy some trucks for half price.
LVS up a modes five and a half percent, after being put on S and P credit watch for it bb- debt, due to underperformance of assets in vegas and macau. It takes ball like pickle jars to bid this stock now, on its way to much lower price.
Hey Mister “Ban Donny” … what’s your problem? Are you thinking this is the Chi-Com or something? I didn’t mean to offend you … I’m truly sorry.
With that said, I bet you’re that little bastard who did a shitty job polishing my chrome rims on my new 335i yesterday at the car wash.
merrill will trade single digits after earnings
I wouldn’t be bragging about a 335i. Rich kids in my hood get one by default.
Please address me as mutherfucka, mutherfucka.
I’m the mutherfucker who pissed in your mutherfuckin’ Cheerios this morning.
Mutherfucka.
Would you guys cut out the fucktarded and dramatic prognostication, unless it is followed by sound motherfucking logic? All you’re doing is repeating what you’ve heard.
Oil is so 2007.
The fly must be getting debanked of all his coin big time today.
Will be grabbing some RIG calls when it hits $139 just on Fly Principle. He’s always right.
30 more minutes to buy your GOOG lottery tickets!
I’m having a friendly competition over at my site.
1) pick target price for GOOG Friday morning
2) pick price for GOOG september 1st
3) pick your BEST option strike price = your lotto ticket.
Post it here, or in my comments section. I’ll post results Friday.
aLohA!
-Gio
i am itching to buy the SKF into the close.
i am also of small balls and probably won’t.
That sounded like Spam. LoL!
Did you know HAWAII eats more spam than all you other states combined.
-gio
Mac, where you at?
Me and Mac nailed Oil’s reversal this past Monday after hours. Hat tip to Mac!!
-gio
The gambler in me wants to make some big bets on GOOGs earnings and stock price reaction. I just can’t do it though. Too much discipline. I’d be inclined to wager on an earnings surprise and some upside though.
Shit it almost feels like Vegas. Bet it all on Black at the roulette table at Caesars Palace. Fuck my fingers are getting itchy…..
IBM = International BEAR Market.
DIE BIG TECH, DIE!
afterhours earnings.
fuck GOOG and IBM.
COF short here is a better bet.
looks like people are getting out of the UYG. too scared to hold through the evening. lol
Okay, I just yelled at everyone for giving me shit for not being here this morning, so I won’t be a hypocrite and do the same to Fly, ovah heah.
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But wouldn’t it be amusing to imagine him unable to reach his monitor as he and his trader servant are busy barricading the office door with oaken bookcases against his irate and barging “local” clients at this point?
___
Jakey, if you wear a Robert Talbott, people would respect the shirt and not yell at you. Maybe I’m going to sell a couple today after the clusterfuck by Lex Luthor.
I rarely wear ties anymore.
Ironically, I wore one today (Sally Ferragamo, always), out of respect for my client who called the meeting at his lawyer’s offices.
Doubly ironically, my client is a bank.
Though solvent.
__