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Tag Archives: $TPX

OPEN THE GATE!

My office was rife with distractions today as the typically quiet folks of finance dipped into a barrel of beer and invaded my workspace all-too-frequently for its VIP view of the streets below.  Damn these fools, seriously, they’re demented humans who don’t get out nearly enough.

Pair that with Multicharts having an impromptu mandatory software update, and I was rendered useless in the futures market after the clock struck ten.

I’m brooding so hard right now.  But what the hell, everyone’s having fun, yes yes yes!?  Ben told the bulls, “we ridin’ round we gettin’ it.  It’s mine, I spend it.”

Ben put his flex on like an old tiger in his last fight—he’s not losing.

The S&P pit session was quiet today, but really fluid and without nasty trap action.  It went directional downward early on, and anyone with a brain would be trigger happy on their shorts, taking profits given the context.  So when a new low was never set, the market never even enticed chasing the shorts.  Then it marked time all session, then put in two nice little rotations higher to close out the day.

I missed the afternoon rotations, hence the brooding.

Perhaps that is why I bought BPZ at HOD today but let me explain a bit more.  They say if you feel like you’re missing out on the action, it’s already too late.  When I pulled up BPZ this afternoon, I didn’t feel a sense that I had missed anything.  I see this type of setup all the time, yet I never take it.  A stock launches over 10 percent higher in a single session on strong volume and closes near the HOD.  The next day it makes an even BIGGER move.  Pair that with the following bullet points:

1.) http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2013/07/10/a-titanic-shift-in-the-oil-markets-are-underway/

“On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.”

2.) It showed up on three of my favorite PPT screens too, including receiving an upgrade to BUY.

I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:

I took my first scale in O.  You have to get paid when the market pays you.  Now the move can either continue progressing or digest for a bit and I’m chill.

I took my first scale on TPX.  It’s still my largest position and top pick.  Next target is $50.

I bought PRLB, INVN, and BPZ like a cheetah chasing a gazelle.

I took cash down to 12 percent, and my positions, listed largest to smallest are as follows (top picks bolded):

TPX, FB, AIXG, INVN, DDD, F, Z, IMMR, CREE, PRLB, SD, BPZ, O, ENPH, YGE

I want some EXK too, call it position overload.  I did this last time we peaked out…FYI but I won’t be fooled twice.

EARNING’S SEASON STARTS TOMMOROW MORNING-PREPARE FOR WAR

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We’re Really Going to Miss this Guy

I was having a modestly red day in the futures, but I stuck around and traded through the Ben, and now I’m happy to go home very green!

I bought two dips, sold two rips…Ben is a really good guy.

There was so much selling pressure today, especially after the FOMC pop was faded, that I knew any upward momentum could get these shorts running for their dear, stupid, lives.  And Ben delivered the crack rock.  As a matter of fact, he’s not even satisfied with the 6.5% unemployment threshold initially rolled out during the taper talks.  He’s convinced we’ll need to keep on easing well beyond that, blessing the market with capital gains until everyone is back to work.

Obviously this news is very bullish for TPX because, as unemployment drops, procreation must increase.  The safest way to procreate is within the confines of your bed.  So get a nice one, yes?

Anyone want to take bets on where we open tomorrow?

It’s a long way until 9:30am…

I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:

I dumped AAPL for a scratch after riding the name through a trough.  I can’t get excited about this name because it’s literally falling behind the power curve.  That’s dangerous in any business.  My assistant mocks my ghetto 4s about once a week and then changes the channels with her Galaxy.  It has the infrared beam like your teevee remote.  Plus I wanted to sell it at yesterday’s low, so why not sell it today, near the highs?  It can go to $1000 and I still won’t regret this decision.

I scaled off some Z as it pokes around near the all-time high.

I cut my ANGI long because I don’t have patience for it when YELP is crushing, Z is crushing, and ZNGA is flirting with me.  What was once a 6% gain was booked for a 5% loss.

All of this left me feeling cash heavy aka homo erotic.  So I scuttled into DDD and SD.  DDD is ¾ size and SD is ½ size.

I closed the day 80 percent long with TPX of course being my largest position because my top pick continues to be TPX, got it?

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Marking Time

The S&P has done very little so far today, more or less marking time in a very non directional manner.  The only play has been to fade the extremes.  There has been a slow and steady pressure on the bid all session and we’ve traversed yesterday’s entire value area.

We’ve seen range extension lower which suggests we may have already marked the high of the day.  However, we’ve seen a slew of neutral sessions these last few weeks which feature range extension in both directions.  Keep in mind however, over years of daily data, these formations are very uncommon.

I’m from the school of thought that we’re in a summer range, and I believe we’re near the high end of it.  Buying up here thus becomes a higher risk game.  However, We’re yet to test the upper bounds of the range, upward of 1650 -1660, and it seems appropriate to touch those levels before traversing the range again given the “max pain” aspect of the markets.

We could certainly see activity pickup this afternoon after the 2pm FOMC minutes, and perhaps a tradable trend will develop.

In the meantime, individual names are still offering tradable opportunities, and my top pick in this environment remains TPX.

Here’s the quiet profile thus far:

profile

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Concentrating My Eggs

I sold out of Goldman Sachs near the open and missed the entire rally, I was moved by the strong sell flow early on in the S&P futures.  The same sell flow also marked the low of the day, at the key price confluence highlighted this morning.  The market turned here and ran 8 handles higher closing just off the highs.

I wasn’t offered opportunity to get on board the move until late in the session, and feeling underexposed, I added to my TPX, AIXG, and FB longs.

TPX is officially my largest position, constituting about 18 percent of my portfolio.  I’m now playing a game of chicken with the shorts as we approach earnings July 22nd.  Obviously, I don’t want to carry this entire position into earnings, so I will be a seller into strength.  I wanted to make sure I had enough in the name to allow for some scaling, but still offer modest positioning into their earning’s announcement.

AIXG caught a nasty downgrade today.  Shares were off over 5 percent and I’m near my stop point so I doubled my long.  The position isn’t quite full size, more ¾, with a plan to scale off the additional shares at or near my original purchase price of $16.87Max pain is below 15/share.

I added to my FB long.  My basis in the name is right around here.  I liked it last time we were trading at 25, I like it even better now that there’s a base beneath.

As awesome as this week has been for longs, my gains are excruciatingly modest due to matters way beyond my control.  Like the clown baby who went full Rachel Ray and started “The Truth About The List” which can only be described as childish.  There’s nothing wrong with being childish, it can be rather entertaining.  As a matter of fact, I laughed out loud when I first saw the site.  I even wrote about it in my diary!

“Citizen for Internet Transparency made a funny website today” it read, “it made me laugh.”

The humor wore off when the shares gapped down nearly 4 percent today.  How much of this move is attributable to the hit site is unknown, but unless things get turned around rather quickly, it’s as if an anti-momentum laser was fired at the shares.

This feels a lot like the anxiety phase of an upward move which is what keeps me pressing my longs even though a part of me wants to cash out.  Also we’re capturing these upside levels that seemed a bit farfetched which is surprisingly bullish.

http://youtu.be/2YcIgow6TDk

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Equities Continue Their Clumsy Appreciation

The ETF SPY is on track to print another tight and gapped candle to add to the ADR collection we’ve assembled since the big liquidation snap.  This is by far, one of the strangest and most unhealthy appreciations I’ve ever seen.

Nonetheless it is an appreciation, so longs are a-workin’

With the muted action taking place in the futures, making for a challenging day trading environment, I’ve been a spectator for most of the day.  None of my charts look broken yet none of my stocks are reaching their targeted destinations.  The exception I have is AAPL, which could be taking a turn for the worse.  It’s certainly my lowest conviction play and every hour I think about selling it.

Two of my larger positions, TPX and GS are not doing much.  I don’t intend to sell any TPX until $50.

My ANGI and Z trades seem to complement each other well.  When one is feeling down, the other is up.  Z is larger than ANGI, but not by much.  You would think ANGI was kidnapping babies given the internet sentiment.  I’ve never seen such disdain for a company, save for YELP.

People act like businesses owners have never had to grease a few palms to get the gears turning.  What the fuck?  You start a business.

ENPH is a daily epiphany since snaring the bears in that lovely trap.  This is one of those exciting new companies where I never want to sell shares, but I must.  My plan is to buy and sell but always keep a core, thus whittling my cost basis down into the threes.

FB looks kind of hot, finally.

My LED stocks are getting hammered today.  Let’s face it, they’re up huge YTD, they may not participate in every rally going forward.  I want more CREE, but will exercise stoic patience with the stretched name.

AIXG on the other hand needs to grab its schnitzel and man up ASAP.

F is extended, but I continue to view demand for this equity as pent up.

I’m currently at 13 longs.  I prefer a max 12.  But I need to buy something else unless I’m compelled to sell because something about 13 longs rubs me wrong.

 

 

 

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Charts Are a Bit “Meh” Until They ARE NOT!

Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it?  Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4th of July, when I tread lightly.”  And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!”  This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…

…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.

I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection.  Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.”  You shouldn’t.  I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.”  Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.

We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away.  SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked.  We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions.  You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship.  That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.

It’s a totally new world we live in.  Get out your space helmets friends!

So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes.  Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.

I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.

Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:

TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE

I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names.  I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.

O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell.  The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.

AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half.  Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.

F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.

ANGI is still “meh”

CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.

GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.

Enough, I grow tired.  See you homos later.

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1 for 6

June, Q2, and all of its awesomeness are in the books.  Now we must press into everyone’s favorite quarter, the third, infamous for blowing up accounts.

We had a little scare there for a minute, with bonds going tits up, but so far these fears have been swept under the rug with all the other market villains.  Will the V-shaped bounce stick in PCK?  It seems unlikely.  Volume has tapered off on the bounce up, making the move appear to be of the dead cat varietal.

So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, whistling and skipping across the prairie…blue skies and Teletubbies, yet.  If you are carrying yourself in such manner, have a plan.  Otherwise a surprise cyclone could drop a garbage truck on your person, like the finger of God removing your sperm from the gene pool, benefitting humanity as a whole.

I say all this to you while I stand atop 80 percent long equities, most of which are consumer discretionary.  Why would I carry such funk stocks in this uncertain climate?  It’s simple really, like always.  The wealthy, like always, they’re confident.  They’re always confident, but lately their confidence is at all-time highs, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index.  One of the best ways to improve the overall quality of your life is to upgrade your bed.  Don’t sleep on some piker mattress from a garage sale, covered in sweat stains and bed bugs—filth, I spit on your bed.  Most people (not most iBC loyalists) spend close to 40% of their lives in bed, why be ghetto about it?  The answer is they aren’t, they’re buying TPX mattresses by the factory load.  Good lord these babies have a sweet margin, too.

iBC Loyalists:

pilot

Also, there’s a big consumer push into adjustable beds.  They promise ergonomics, improved circulation, and an ace reading position.  Traditionally only the elderly and hospitalized enjoyed such decadence. Now they come with 52-inch retractable plasma screens at your feet.  UUUuughghgu!  Guess whose mattresses work best in such conditions?  Yep, TPX.

Now I won’t chop my dick off if TPX isn’t trading to $50 in July, but I have a ton of conviction in the name.  I crushed this trade late last year based on the same conviction.  Are you going to tell me I’m wrong?

I have 11 other longs aka peak position count.  I present them to you, largest-to-smallest, headed into July:

AAPL (lol), TPX, F, FB, ANGI, YGE, IMMR, Z, CREE, GS, AIXG, ENPH

May Julius Caesar and his month bring gifts to my person and yours.

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PRESS

The Devil called today’s reversal, but now it’s time to press into the shorts.  They leaned on the bid all afternoon yesterday right at these levels.  Bulls are turning up the heat on their positions.  When we take out yesterday’s value area high at 1610.50 it’s a go.

I’m about 80 percent long in anticipation after today’s adds to TPX and new buys in ANGI and GS.

PS, iBC was all over the reversal:

image

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The Market Feels Heavy

Yet the sellers can’t gain traction.  Every attempt at sending price lower to fill the gap below stalls out.  The sell orders are pressuring the bid this afternoon in the S&P minis but not achieving any progress.  All of this pressure building up has to go somewhere.

Meanwhile, with the help of The PPT I found some shorts in ENPH and squeezed’em pretty well today.  I scaled some profits, but left ½ the position on in case the pain trade continues.  The weekly chart suggests it could.

I hopped on board Zillow today after the impressive Pending Home Sales Index, which crushed expectations.  I hate when a house goes pending, BTW.  When I was about 9 months into my hunt and houses would go pending in less than 3 days listed, I would chastise my real estate agent and damn the illiquidity of homes.  This chart looks mint and I want it to keep looking mint so I can size it up.  For now, I’m ½ size.

These F shares are working out, up around 4 percent since my entry.  So far, we’re looking at a v-shape bounce in a big consumer discretionary.  The same goes for TPX.  This is like the housing trifecta: Z, F, TPX.  You find the house, you buy the car, you buy the bed.

We’ve been trend up all week, which SHOMP-wise makes sense, but for all other intents and purposes seems odd.  Now the questions becomes, do we run into the 4th of July?  If we do, I want to be in patriotic names, like F.

I’m still in FB, did you know that?  I’ve ridden through the trough, and now things are looking really good.  This also fits the suburban lifestyle, shack up and talk politics with your delusional relatives.  Note: I don’t do FB.

Anyhow, I’m 35 percent cash and long the following names.  I’ve bolded my favorites and they’re listed by size, largest to smallest:

AAPL (fml), F, FB, SODA, YGE, Z, IMMR, CREE, TPX, ENPH, and ZION

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We Need a Good Chinese Bovine Injection

cows
YUM! MILK!

The S&P is trying really hard to form a tradable range here.  Talking ETF SPY, the brackets would be 158.50 – 165.50 give or take.  The mouth pieces are trying their best to help, coming out of their smoky offices and jawboning in the middle of a quad witching.  PPT wants a range low too.  Everything is pointing to a range low—except SHIBOR rates and suspender-wearing bond traders.

In the spirit of our gaptastic, have fun sleeping, stock market, we need some ridiculous headline out of Asia over the weekend that wastes no time, gaps us above the midpoint of our range, catches everyone out of position, and forces your hand to buy at a higher risk.

It would be fitting given the recent nature of this choppy courrrection.

I could see us coming into the office Monday to a huge gap lower too, that’s the environment we’re in.  That’s the environment Chess objectively describes to members on Sunday night when gentlemen take to their studies and make preparations for the week.

So I’m keeping position sizes smaller, cash higher than I would like to, and limiting the number of positions I hold.

I took a SODA long this morning.  It’s looking really good.  It’s only half size.  If it goes lower, I’ll double down.  If it gets to $74 I’ll scale ¼ off and let the market pay me.

I’m a proud bag holder of $423 dollar AAPL shares.  I bought them in the middle of the FED announcement yesterday.  I was completely swept up in the hype.  $420 is an important price level for AAPL because the degenerates who trade it think Phish plays good music.  Maybe they should stick to Chief Keef.

I’ve decided to stick with TPX through this indecision.  I hold a ½ position here also.  I want to make it 2x I love these beds, especially as the adjustable bed market continues to boom.

Holy Mt. ZION is trading well as are many other regional banks.  Holding.

It’s finally summer hallelujah.  We shouldn’t even be holed up on our computers but there are moves to be made.  Get your pasty ass outside and don’t forget the sunscreen.

 

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