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Tag Archives: $RVLT

Halloween Candy Only Market

There are crazy moves, both ways, going down in this market of stocks.

Early on we had a pretty solid read on the Nasdaq and S&P and we were talking through the psychology inside the 12631 pay wall.  I trade little blips in the gyrations of the NASDAQ and my current goal is not to earn money but instead to consistently identify, trigger, and manage one trading picture.  I have set the lofty goal of being right 75% of the time.  This is for me to prove TO ME that I have the fortitude to trade futures before committing adult money to the venture.

But I was watching my move play out and I started noticing excessive aggression from the sellers.  Have you ever walked up to a girl and started talking game only to quickly find out her husband or boyfriend is close in tote?  Said boyfriend often puffs out his chest and behaves like a primate because he feels threatened.  This is overreacting and once it happens you can almost rest assured you have won…something, life, the momentary affection of the women, whatever.  Market participants do the same thing all the time just before they lose.  The more you watch the tape, the clearer it becomes.

Anyhow, sellers started acting like scared bitches just before eleven and the S&P was trading up into the key battle line highlighted this morning.  This is what had me buying WDAY and WLT.  I got in before the pop and used most of my money doing it.  I am now 95% long and uncomfortably so.

So I went into my portfolio and tried really hard to find something to sell before the market makes me sell and I came out empty handed.  I know, it is completely negligent to be 95% long way up here but I cannot justify selling any of my positions where they stand.

I honestly feel as pickled into a catch 22 as I have ever felt in my trading career.

Off topic: I have sustained myself on water and candy ONLY today.  My eyes feel like they want to explode and gush sugar all over my keyboard.

Not chocolate nutty candy either…just the crack: taffies, lemon heads, now and later cubes, dubble bubbles (apropos), and jujyfruits.

Gallons of water.

Somebody convince me to sell one of these holdings, largest-to-smallest:


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Could Be Worse

My book is down over two and a half percent today and as you may imagine I am a bit salty today.  There was a broad market selloff last quarter when CREE disappointed.  It tends to exacerbate this brutality.  Thus my best line of defense right now is to sit on my hands and brood.  The broad sell off inflicting pain upon all LED stocks is completely without merit and reflects the irritating nature of humans to overreact.

Have you ever gone around a left-hand curve on a freeway during rush hour?  If one person overreacts in the fast lane (and they always do) then the entire fast lane comes to a halt.  Then the contagion spreads to the next lane over.  Now you have the two ‘fast’ lanes parked on the freeway while Raul zips by in the slow lane at posted highway speeds.  This is humans overreacting.  Bad humans, smack yourselves on the nose with a newspaper.

Sometimes even with clever tricks you get swept up in mess overreacting humans create.  Such is the case today with LEDS.  It is best to breath, stay calm, do not get angry, and simply waiting things out like a gentleman.  Perhaps call an old friend and catch up.  Eat some good food.  Do whatever it takes to stay calm.

I want more CREE shares because they are a fantastic company and their positioning in the marketplace is divine as leaders.  But I am waiting.

The pain I am experiencing in the LED trade isn’t bothering me.  It is more like being sore after a heavy workout.  It’s good pain that will make me stronger.

On the other hand I have let two trades get away from me: PPC and ADHD.  I am down nearly 20% on ADHD.  What was once a ¾ position has become a half position and I have no intention of buying more.  This Israeli pharmaceutical company trades like complete crap intraday and it’s putting any and all chasers in the ringer for the sake of punishing their gluttony.  I have been punished my whole live for being hyperactive so this feels natural to me.  I will keep taking pain and eventually scratch this dumper for break even.  It is too bad they aren’t cooking stimulants in their lab because that would make everyone more bullish.

PPC is being beaten so other bigger players can back the truck up at lower prices.  This is the overplay for the underlay.  I have never been more certain in my life.  Holding.

LO put out solid earnings and I like where this company is focused.  They acquired a British e-cigarrette business this month and blue Cigs have established a 49% share of the market place.  First-to-market edge FTW.

I can’t trade futures in this salty mood and the only adjustment I have made is buying SLW.  I have a half position and will trade this slowly.

Now I am off to read Department of Energy documents to affirm the LED edge further.  Good day

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Raising My Guard

When the /NQ busted loose to the downside I was working an offer trying to board the short bus.  The market simply would not pull back enough to allow me entry into a short.  When I finally did get my short on I was taken for a wild, spine twisting ride higher.  I doubled my short and booked a small gain on the double down and close the initial entry for break even.  At that point, given the velocity of the marketplace, I turned Elroi the trading algo on and went out for chicken.

The more I trade the better I am at having awareness that my edge is dull.  The action today is better suited for my emotionless robot to trade in a very average manner.  The algo may not take any trades or may take some very average gains from the market, but it beats an emotional me executing orders.

I have CREE earnings after the bell.  My position size is smaller than what I carried into last quarter but still meaningful at about 6% of my portfolio.  There was chatter online that CREE is interested in buying RVLT.  I hope this doesn’t happen because I want to see RVLT grow to become the most successful retrofit company in the United States.

I have not felt the urge to swing any shorts this entire summer/fall until today.  Where the market stands, I feel like I need some hedge action so I started buying FXY.  I love the consolidation we are seeing on the weekly chart and should we see risk fly off the table some of it will find its way into the Yen.  Plus there have been big moves kicking up in the currency markets and they have my interest.

It seems the macro picture is morphing a bit this week.

Of course, should the cocaine get dusted over the market again I will likely be back on the chase.

ADHD is failing me and next to go

GOGO needs to shape up

The chicken trade is not dead yet.  May it arise and smash the doubters.

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Keep It Coming Love

This volatility kicked up some wonderful waves in the index futures today and boy was I in touch with the auction.  Insane.  I look at this daily candle we printed, a little insignificant wiggle in the universe of price and think, damn, I just pwned that candle, both ways, like a well-endowed swinger.

The beauty of trading index futures is you escape the rigmarole of ‘digesting’ news and staring down the barrel of a losing stock position.  I let these stocks prove themselves wrong, or right, giving them room to make noise.  There is so much god damned noise in the world.  You need a way to tune it out.

I don’t use music.  I prefer the ambient hum of printers, keyboards clacking, and phones ringing.  These are sound of business being done and money being made.

Inside my undersized cube I pull levers and click buttons with the sole intent of extracting money from the economy and fueling my escape from mediocrity.

Since I paired back my big dickt RVLT long yesterday to a more modest 10% position, I was joyous when I saw it printing a lovely candle of death.  May it bring new lows along with it so I can accumulate this story at a more modest pricing.  You need to look around a bit more and realize there are little piles of money sitting around and these prospectors have the tools to mine them.  The management may as well be a team of wild chimps because this business would take epic mismanagement to fail.

That being said, I have seen epic mismanagement and I wouldn’t wish it upon any company.

I started buying ADHD as I mentioned earlier.  Your brain is already losing attention, I can tell.  You want to read another joke or watch porn.  Go get prescribed Adderall and demand Israeli sources.  Let’s talk about models.

I love them, they are the most often quoted and retweeted people represented by Raul via the @twosmuth twitter handle.  Their symmetry is beauty, much like the market profile.  The universe awards us with symmetry, pay attention.

GOGO is slowly bleeding me out. Enjoy my blood for I no longer need it.  I will generate newer fresher blood.  This action reeks of impending death (no geriatric center).

I have far too much energy for 6pm.  I am off to spoil myself with iron work.

My port was down 1.2% today.  Peanuts until they aren’t.


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Strapped Up With Stage One Rocket Boosters

Let me start by saying I am not thrilled with the action in the S&P 500.  I was discussing this with one of my most distinguished readers, gentleman UncleBuccs.  My chart brain sees lower prices in store before news highs are achieved.

So I did what any responsible person would do when confronted with these “facts” …I bought stocks.

I still have some cash on the books, about 25% which is about the highest my cash has been this year.  But I have a huge position in RVLT, a huge position in ONVO, and a huge position in CREE.  My next largest position is USO because I think oil is just going to surprise everyone and rip tits into year end, taxing the tight wad consumer before x-mas.

Everything else is ¾ size or smaller: LO, Z, GOGO

Then my slow money: F and O

Then a tiny IMMR I keep for sport and this stupid MJNA long—down 20% waiting for a pop to sell into.  It will come.  It is a matter of time not will.

I traded the futures less this week, especially after I got gang banged by algorithms Tuesday.  I took a conservative trade in the /ES yesterday that worked out well.  Today, that same conservative nature caused me to miss an idea I mapped out very well.  Oh well, there is always next week.  /NQ is looking promising as anything I have ever seen—both on a discretionary and algorithmic basis.

About this time every week I am overcome with a huge feeling of gratefulness.  Thank you for reading along.  I love this work and interacting with my internet people.  Have a great weekend.

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Turns Out The News Was Fake

Of course the news flow had some merit.  After all there were serious talks occurring in Washington DC, the epicenter of insider trading.  But save me the wordy discussions, I can see their footprints in the walk of price.

Funny to see former Detroit Mayor Kilpatrick getting 28 years in the hole while the Federal government plays budgetary chicken.  I never considered Kwame’s actions worse than your average politician, they only seemed move obvious.  I promise you, the city of Detroit is a better off with Big Meech behind bars a solid 20-something years.

Enough, let’s discuss what happened here today.  We gapped up huge overnight and drove hard off the open.  At that point it was simply a matter of finding a way to grab on to the long side and hold on for one hell of a ride.

We had upside targets in mind and they were achieved before 11am.  These targets were far from the opening print and I thought it may take us all day, if not into the weekend to achieve the prices.

But there’s eager money out there, yearning for another hit.

What worked for me today?

  • LED stocks crushed today—all of them.  The industry is on fire.
  • Buying GOGO blood yesterday, veddy nice
  • Vapor smokes via Newport cigarette maker LO – that is a quality company with a quality chart.  Don’t be blu [sic] if you missed today’s move because it is just getting started.  Nice dividend too.
  • Measured move, market profile, and Fibonacci confluence – My most profitable day trade was a four handle short in the spooz.
  • My /NQ algo.  It is starting to worry me, it is on a roll
  • The mighty PPT

What didn’t work?

  • ONVO was quiet…almost too quiet
  • Z didn’t make much of a bounce
  • Cash, lazy lazy cash

There was a bit of selling into the bell and the waters are still choppy, however cool minds prevailed and top calling continues to be a daunting task.  Tomorrow will be the challenging day after a trend day.  The location of today’s close also precludes chop in store for tomorrow.

Should we not chop, but instead drive higher or lower, it would be a surprise and a reason to adjust your stance.

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What Do All These Things Have in Common?

“An organ printer, an iPhone with airborne internet access, a real estate app, haptics, and LED light bulbs”

NOTHING!  Not quite.

They are all technologies that will make the coming years exponentially more kickass than 2013.  I hold stock in all of them via ONVO, GOGO, Z, IMMR, RVLT, and CREE respectively.   These are real companies adding value to society.  On the contrary, we have the god damned politicians and their media outlet mouth pieces.  There is no value being created by politics.

And I have no alternative to offer because I never follow politics.  Hell, I have antenna teevee and really only watch Jeopardy.  Therefore I don’t talk politics.  There, I said it.  I know it is ignorant and I cannot care.  I have too much business to tend to.

I was a buyer of stocks today.  I am siding with the robots.  I cut my twitter exposure down to the bear [sic] minimum.  It is too noisy.  My squiggly lines say buy for a quick hit of crack rock and then GTFO, therefore I am doing exactly that.

My slow money is still in place via F, O, LO, and USO

I have that stupid ass MJNA long too.

Cash 28%

Warm salutations,


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Big Win for The Seller

The market kicked into high gear this morning shortly after breaking down out of the consolidation we closely observed Sunday evening.

The idea was simple, and with it, I saved myself from the nauseating task of watching news which is centrally focused on politics.  Instead I could watch price and determine how to manage my portfolio accordingly.

When everything started breaking down early on I sold off all my shares in WLT, FB, AMBA, and BALT.  They were hard decisions to make because I didn’t want to sell any of them, but I knew there were major implications to that consolidation snap.  Also The Fly has been preparing us for a correction rather extensively.  After all of the selling my portfolio was bulked up with over 40% cash.

We are closing on the lows of the day after a high volume, large range selling candle.  Something tells me there will be better opportunities to buy soon and I want plenty of cash on hand.

The seller I was observing Sunday evening seemed big by how the orders were carried about—absorbing buy flow at the offer for a full day.  They just won big time and today’s tape is likely to embolden them.  Do not discount the bears at this junction.

At the same time keep your eyes on stocks that are trading in a microcosm.  Notice how financials aren’t as beaten down as tech.  That’s because they were dogs all last quarter.  We are nearing the time to consider another Goldman Sachs long.

Bottom line: stay cool and get out your shopping lists, but move slowly.

Top picks: CREE and RVLT, my two largest positions


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Raising Cash is Hard These Days

Sunday night Raul was brooding harder than Ryan Gosling in a New York City taxi cab.  The futures were lit aflame and it seemed almost certain I was due for an ole timey courrrection.  And it would make sense, because I am sashaying around these markets with impunity lately.  It is always a matter of when, not if, the market will sniff me out and drop a grand piano on my head.

Hey it happens—I won’t lie to you…truth serum is a perk of being anonymous.

But the grim reaper didn’t visit me this morning.  Instead a little bit of the Miley Cyrus trickled through the veins of the market and I had a green day (no dookie). 

The morning flowed, and after going on a seven trade winning streak in the /NQ_F I thought it respectful to make a sacrifice to the stock gods—so I sold off some RVLT over 4.

Don’t get up in arms now.  There is no need to revolt at this action.  RVLT ballooned last week to become almost 20% of my portfolio.  And I took that low floater into the weekend because I knew the move had more junk in the trunk.  When it fizzled today, I took off my bottom shares, the shares I bought down in the depths of hell, and booked them for over a 30% profit.

RVLT still remains my largest position but I did not want to start getting emotional over here so I took it to a size where I can stop pulling up the chart and a size I would consider riding though earnings.  Great company or not, you are a jackass to have 20% of your risk existence on an earning’s call.

It wasn’t long before I had a new home for the cash.  I piled it onto ONVO, making the position my third largest behind only RVLT and CREE.

ONVO 3d prints organs which is a total mind blow.  The chart is forming a tight consolidation which will blow shit up when it breaks.  My trade reviews show me I need big size on ASAP, so I can get my fat scale off while everyone else is still on the chase like I did AMBA last week.  Being up 6% on my ½ entry, it seemed imminent to buy more.

In short, the port is green, the /NQ trades more at my speed, and everything on the news is fake.

Congratulations to Howard Lindzon and the entire Stocktwits team for getting a CNBC’s John Melloy to take the reigns as CEO.  This is a huge blow to the financial news industry and no doubt speaks volumes to the decaying value at CNBC and the exponentially growing value of getting your news directly from traders.

Successful businesses aren’t the result of some magic voodoo.  They are the result of good decisions diligently executed one after another.  When presented with the right information, it does not take a genius to make good decisions.  Any of you would choose correctly given the best information.  And it is the people doing the work, day in and out, people like us folks on iBankCoin and Twitter, who know the business the best.  Not some stud on the teevee.

The investor class is realizing this, slowly.  Remember, when you venture to the internet for knowledge due diligence is paramount.  Follow “experts” for months and hold them accountable.  Don’t just follow some cowboy into a field of algo turrets.

And always demand more, more, MOAR!R

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I Am The Lizard King

I can do anything.

We sure do cover the /ES_F often over here on the Raul blog, discussing its…implications, if you will.  Building the contextual cake helps me to identify abnormalities, flinches, and hand tips by the big money.   The E-mini S&P is the most liquid financial instrument in the world.  It makes sense to pay attention to it.

But trading it has become a slow and painful grind.  It is like going years without a dish washer even though you love to cook.  You get by, but your soul dies a little every day.

I needed some change (No Obama) so I traded the /NQ.  I like the NQ…peep today’s stats:



  • today had a large range
  • /NQ is thinner
  • smaller contract size suits my size a bit nicer
  • I trade lots of Nasdaq and Russell stocks so I may be concentrating my eggs
  • It offers more trading opportunities (at least lately)

/ES has been brain numbing, while I go ‘big pimpin’ on these wiry stocks.  Speaking of which, my book was up a percent today.  That is a result of stock prowess and hanging out with traders much more seasoned then me.  Mainly my gains today were a result of being on the right end of a technology revolution.  So while sour bastards get their kicks shorting Tesla, which is fine, I am embracing the future and finding opportunities to invest in it.

In short: CREE and RVLT what what?

I started buying ONVO too, right about at these levels.  You can’t keep me out of this name.  When my pickled organs give out I want robots around to print new ones.  Seems like a no brainer at five fifty.  I consider it an investment in myself.

I sold YGE.  It felt like when I sold VIPS yesterday…too soon-ish.  However, dwelling on these thoughts prohibits the mind from seeking opportunity elsewhere.  I sold RBCN too, for a loss, because it sort of just fell out after mainlining hot money.  I do not want to be around when the Apple WWDC crowd goes running for the doors, should they do so.

ADHD is a ticker which by design frustrates me, ripping higher like a freshman jacked up on Mountain Dew and Ripped Fuel.  Ah high school…when ephedra was still legal.  I have wanted a long on this one for a few weeks but my attention keeps darting away from it.  Instead I want to Snapchat and play ping pong in the futures.

I do not really love the way we are setting up into the weekend.  The market looks like the headless horseman.  Sentiment sucks but the crowd isn’t always wrong.  I have concentrated by book down to the following positions listed largest to smallest:


That jackass MJNA stock can burn up and go to zero for all I care.  What a garbage stock.  I am -20% on that field play.  I thought about cutting O about 100 times, but I figure keep it and collect the yield.  My basis is a tad below here.

Everything else I hold close to chest.  As a matter of fact, I need more CREE and RVLT but I am exercising patience.  Together the stocks represent almost 30% of my risk capital.

I will let Q4 play out a bit before getting more risk into those two names.  In the mean time I can increase my LED exposure via VECO, RBCN, GTAT, OESX, and LYTS.

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