Pull up daily and 30 minute charts of EGLE, GMCR, ACTV, and END and you will see beautiful charts, tightly coiled and ready to make explosive moves. I want you to note I bought none of them.
I did however buy CREE and MHR taking my long exposure up to 75 percent. I have another 10 percent in SKF, leaving me 15 percent cash to navigate tomorrows FED day. That’s essentially why I did not buy anything else today. I like the stocks I mentioned in paragraph one. Any one of those could produce a big gainer.
Interestingly enough, after today’s CREE buy and pooling in RBCN, 40 percent of my book is committed to LED technology. RBCN has some action off the new iPhone home button too, but their sapphire is an important material in LED production. This is my very concentrated bet. Parts of it aren’t doing too well. Take RVLT for instance—the chart looks hellish, yep…technical term. And I’m -30% on the name. Don’t care. I mean, I care very much, but the stock is a long term speculative hold. AIXG cannot and will not break out of its consolidation range. My cost basis is the only thing keeping me in this play because if it wasn’t near the bottom of this range I would have a harder time stomaching these waves.
I took one trade in the /6E today. After /6e pushed lower, it pulled back to a place I could enter. The trade went in my favor, all the way to my target, but did not fill. This happens often, and it used to cause a great deal of anguish and regret. I would be like, “I put my target out too far, now I will be getting the fuck.” Now I don’t sweat the action, but instead manage that which I can control at this point. The /6E very well could have put in another thrust lower, and it still may, but it didn’t. Instead it put my position below water and then just held it there. Around noon I took a step back, had a stretch, and asked the following questions:
What has the /6E done?
What is the /6E trying to do?
How good of a job is the /6E doing on the try?
It’s helpful. I pulled my chart out a bit, noticed the /6e has gone very quiet, something I noted this morning. The market open introduced a strong thrust lower, but not to fresh swing lows. We’re making lower highs, but also higher lows: it’s coiling! That’s what it has done.
To my eye, the Euro is trying to do two things: the bulls are trying to work out of a range bound trade that lasted an entire year. They are not doing a great job so far. The bears are trying to reject range highs. They’re doing a decent job, but have been smacked about quite a bit these last 8-10 trading days. As a result, the /6E is marking time until an unknown factor causes order flow out of this consolidation.
It’s doing a pretty damn good job consolidating as the EMAs I track had gone completely flat on top of the VPOC.
So then, what’s it likely to do? It was likely to chop the consolidation range, the short trade was dead. Instead of just clicking the buy to cover and taking a 0.00012 loss, I was lucky to catch a bit of movement in my favor and only lose 0.0006. I didn’t want to be in a coin toss situation any more. I covered. My entry was good so I really have no complaints with the trade. It just as easily could have continued rotating lower.
And now you have read though my entire lunchtime /6E perspective and my subsequent introspective. Have a great one!Comments »