THE RETAIL INVESTOR IS SAVED! And I’m up over 40% on the name. Everyone wins! Thus, I’m officially married to this position. A match made in heaven.Comments »
The Facebook, led by a fearless byproduct of my generation’s upbringing (kickass video games and cable), has reemerged as an endearing member of the Wall Street community because, let’s be honest, they’re making money. Lots of it. And that’s all we really care about, right?
I needed some winship because for real, my portfolio is getting HAMMERED.
Listen, I’m not one to cower behind my losses, suggesting caveats existed and expanding my verbiage to sound smart. I’m smart as shit, you know that. The ‘junk in my trunk’ is being iron pressed into the proverbial hotplate long ENPH in size. Support held on the first go of it, barely, and I’m still in possession of my shares, barely. I can barely muster the strength to keep it, but I am merely a shepherd to the solar stocks and I must lead them to greener pastures. Today I fended off the wolves, barely, and as I walk east to the Promised Land a warm sun kisses my weary shoulders…barely.
On to the important matter of Sealy Tempur-Pedic and their perverted bed salesmen, I like what I’m seeing. I can’t sit here, behind my keyboard, and act like I’m some expert in the fundamentals of mergers. Hell, I’m not an expert in any fundamentals for that matter. I’ve been digging around all week, trying to understand this weakness. Select Comfort (SCSS) missed last week Wednesday citing increased input costs. On the surface, this seems like it could affect our TPX, but that’s not the case. Select Comfort has been investing in their stores, technology, and product development all in an attempt to remain competitive. That’s squeezing their operating income down.
So a sympathy move in TPX makes less sense than the fashion styling’s of Kris Kross. On the other hand, housing stats have been strong for months everywhere but the Midwest and let’s face it; Midwestern folk are a bunch of frugal penny pinchers anyhow. Hell they’d use a rock for a pillow if it saved them money to buy lotto tickets and fuel up their oversized SUVs. So as much as I wanted to scale down this TPX long before Thursday’s earnings call, I may just have to throw caution to the wind, middle finger in the air, and take what’s coming to me.
Obviously I’ve been emboldened by Ford and Facebook.
The rapid depreciation of my equities in general has upped my cash to 22 percent. There were no trades taken today, I just let the losses effervesce in my bowels.Comments »
As risk flies off the table today, my book is getting pulverized, down around
1.5% 2% as I type. Leading the march lower after taking a minute to wake are gold and silver. I told you this is a run-and-gun industry to mess with. EXK has given back all its gains already. Having scaled only 1/3 of my position off so far, I’m confronted with a curious proposition, do I cut the net and take my small door prize or do I stick to the plan? Sticking to the plan results in a small loss, nearly a scratch, but sticking to the plan could make a solid gain, I’ll give it another day or two.
Solar stocks are getting pounded to pieces by incessant sell orders also. This happened around mid-June and it was a fantastic buying opportunity. This time it looks like we’re all doomed…so it’s an excellent buying opportunity. The only difference between then and now is where the indices reside relative to the industry. Back then we were on pins hoping the bottom wouldn’t fall out of the entire shithouse, today we’re day one of selling from all-time highs…hmm…
My largest position is due for earnings tomorrow after the bell and the chart is suggesting nothing positive. TPX has essentially become a coin toss. I’m at a real crossroads here, sitting a tad under -3% on the name. I planned on lightening up before earnings but now it feels like a rip-off because I think they crush and guide. A betting man at heart, young enough to absorb a gravity hammer to the dome, I may just go for it…this is a young man’s game after all.
My pseudo hedge FXY is down nearly a percentage alongside the market. Cool of me to get fancy, no?
I’m not shorting the /es futures at all because I’m too distracted so no relief from that front.
On the plus side because there’s always a plus side, I took a ¾ size long into the F earnings, that’s helping a bit. OCZ is bucking the trend, but I doubt it can breakout amidst the overall market weakness. AIXG is undergoing a nice bounce back after Europe reported very strong factory data, and I have a modest sized FB long which I will carry into this afternoon’s Marc love fest. #timestamp that, we’re all going to love Marc Zuckerberg after today’s announcement. We’re going to gang poke him until he can’t see straight.
Buying These Deals Now
INTC revenues came in a bit weak and the stock printed a wild electromagnetic pulse after hours but is mostly unchanged. IBM is up afterhours and SNDK reported great numbers ripping bears to shreds and storing the gif for future enjoyment.
Clearly technology stocks are a store of value. Be sure to ignore EBAY, the home of porn stars and packrats, they’re getting crushed after hours after guiding lower.
It’s been a rather mild first inning of earnings, has it not? Where’s all the fire and brimstone I heard so much about? There’s a lot of baseball left I suppose…
We’re trading along rather quietly amongst the all-time highs this week in many names. My favorite 52 week high is Zillow, printing a very sexual 69 high water mark. Leave it to the real estate folks…
The SPY printed a pronounced head and shoulders pattern intraday, but it never followed thru. It tried once, but was pinched higher after a lack of follow through was presented in the form of selling. We did have a very aggressive seller reaction at the highs this morning. It resulted in me staying long in the futures market all session long, missing lunch, and eventually closing the position for small, stupid gain.
I have so many longs set up well, I had to sell a few shares as sacrifice to the rally gods. I scaled off some FB and some IMMR.
This also gave me some much needed cash, which I promptly placed into GRPN. I know I like today’s action and I’m one to put money where my mouth is. Beyond that I abhor Groupon mainly because I’ve only actually used 2 of the 10 coupons I bought. My assistant buys most of his lunches via their ‘Now’ service, but he has much more time on his hands.
For the day, I’m up on all accounts, albeit modestly. I still want my space launch.Comments »
Quiet Morning – Unless You Pick Winning Stocks
The old me would be stalking EXK today like I did Miley Cyrus last time she was in town, but I’m comporting myself with a bit more grace and self-respect today…like Pepe Le Pew. I learned not to chase miners, EXK in particular, through a long history of daggered hairpin reversals. The name is volatile, I felt early on that I missed the action, therefore I did. I’ll have to tickle my fancies with something else today.
I’ve quite enjoyed being kicked in the scrotum this morning by my newly minted long OCZ. They came out with some preliminary earnings data rather out of the blue, and lo and behold they’re still combating supply issues. “SUPPLIES!” …no surprise. There are worse problems for a company to have, like no sales. Anyway, the stock market is the final arbiter. If the name doesn’t shape up into the bell I may axe it (no piker body spray puke).
I sold a bit more O which is fantastic, this trade played out LOCKSTEP, and now I have my final 1/3 which the market must work very hard to take from my person, as my cost basis (net of booked profits) is now $38.50 aka well below swing lows. I hope we take out the recent swing low, run some stops, and then I’ll add some back on. This is going to be my new AWK, collecting me a coupon while I skip to my lou though the market minefield.
My solar trifecta has me more pleasured than Lil Wayne ‘turked up’ on opiates at a stripper convention. Take your pick: YGE, FSLR, and ENPH the sector is leading higher just as prophesied by the immortal Le Fly and other iBC cast members. Use the green juice to power some CREE bulbs and you’re on the right track, guy.
DDD and PRLB did this morning what I like to call the bear pinch: drive lower, pullback for shorts to enter, make a new low, barely, than quickly rip higher, leaving asshole bears stuck in their underwater positions. Have a great afternoon you harry bastards, it’s hot out there.
RVLT finally lifted off and it has done so without me. I’m instead nearly balls deep in German LED play AIXG, down 1 percent. All dogs have their day, RVLT is a decent company, but they’re no CREE or AIXG fundamentally. RVLT is an instrument for degenerates to trade.
I’m happy to have paired my IMMR with some INVN because to me, they’re the same thing: new tech, chips. INVN appears to be more en vogue.
F won’t let good Americans in unless their 401-k is set to ‘auto-allocate’.
FB still wants to win, while you’re looking elsewhere.
I’ll never own enough Z, but I own it nonetheless.
TPX is still my largest. You will all feel its gentle wrath.
Who thinks BPZ has another squeeze in it? (Raises hand)
That’s my book in a nutshell. I’m considering an FXY long as protection. Call it Kong hedging. iBC is becoming a formidable beast.Comments »
OPEN THE GATE!
My office was rife with distractions today as the typically quiet folks of finance dipped into a barrel of beer and invaded my workspace all-too-frequently for its VIP view of the streets below. Damn these fools, seriously, they’re demented humans who don’t get out nearly enough.
Pair that with Multicharts having an impromptu mandatory software update, and I was rendered useless in the futures market after the clock struck ten.
I’m brooding so hard right now. But what the hell, everyone’s having fun, yes yes yes!? Ben told the bulls, “we ridin’ round we gettin’ it. It’s mine, I spend it.”
Ben put his flex on like an old tiger in his last fight—he’s not losing.
The S&P pit session was quiet today, but really fluid and without nasty trap action. It went directional downward early on, and anyone with a brain would be trigger happy on their shorts, taking profits given the context. So when a new low was never set, the market never even enticed chasing the shorts. Then it marked time all session, then put in two nice little rotations higher to close out the day.
I missed the afternoon rotations, hence the brooding.
Perhaps that is why I bought BPZ at HOD today but let me explain a bit more. They say if you feel like you’re missing out on the action, it’s already too late. When I pulled up BPZ this afternoon, I didn’t feel a sense that I had missed anything. I see this type of setup all the time, yet I never take it. A stock launches over 10 percent higher in a single session on strong volume and closes near the HOD. The next day it makes an even BIGGER move. Pair that with the following bullet points:
“On the other hand, surging oil prices is good for a number of sectors, such as solar, alternative energy and good old fashioned exploration plays who bank coin off the price of oil going higher.”
2.) It showed up on three of my favorite PPT screens too, including receiving an upgrade to BUY.
I’ll quickly run through today’s portfolio adjustments:
I took my first scale in O. You have to get paid when the market pays you. Now the move can either continue progressing or digest for a bit and I’m chill.
I took my first scale on TPX. It’s still my largest position and top pick. Next target is $50.
I bought PRLB, INVN, and BPZ like a cheetah chasing a gazelle.
I took cash down to 12 percent, and my positions, listed largest to smallest are as follows (top picks bolded):
TPX, FB, AIXG, INVN, DDD, F, Z, IMMR, CREE, PRLB, SD, BPZ, O, ENPH, YGE
I want some EXK too, call it position overload. I did this last time we peaked out…FYI but I won’t be fooled twice.
EARNING’S SEASON STARTS TOMMOROW MORNING-PREPARE FOR WARComments »
Concentrating My Eggs
I sold out of Goldman Sachs near the open and missed the entire rally, I was moved by the strong sell flow early on in the S&P futures. The same sell flow also marked the low of the day, at the key price confluence highlighted this morning. The market turned here and ran 8 handles higher closing just off the highs.
I wasn’t offered opportunity to get on board the move until late in the session, and feeling underexposed, I added to my TPX, AIXG, and FB longs.
TPX is officially my largest position, constituting about 18 percent of my portfolio. I’m now playing a game of chicken with the shorts as we approach earnings July 22nd. Obviously, I don’t want to carry this entire position into earnings, so I will be a seller into strength. I wanted to make sure I had enough in the name to allow for some scaling, but still offer modest positioning into their earning’s announcement.
AIXG caught a nasty downgrade today. Shares were off over 5 percent and I’m near my stop point so I doubled my long. The position isn’t quite full size, more ¾, with a plan to scale off the additional shares at or near my original purchase price of $16.87. Max pain is below 15/share.
I added to my FB long. My basis in the name is right around here. I liked it last time we were trading at 25, I like it even better now that there’s a base beneath.
As awesome as this week has been for longs, my gains are excruciatingly modest due to matters way beyond my control. Like the clown baby who went full Rachel Ray and started “The Truth About The List” which can only be described as childish. There’s nothing wrong with being childish, it can be rather entertaining. As a matter of fact, I laughed out loud when I first saw the site. I even wrote about it in my diary!
“Citizen for Internet Transparency made a funny website today” it read, “it made me laugh.”
The humor wore off when the shares gapped down nearly 4 percent today. How much of this move is attributable to the hit site is unknown, but unless things get turned around rather quickly, it’s as if an anti-momentum laser was fired at the shares.
This feels a lot like the anxiety phase of an upward move which is what keeps me pressing my longs even though a part of me wants to cash out. Also we’re capturing these upside levels that seemed a bit farfetched which is surprisingly bullish.
Charts Are a Bit “Meh” Until They ARE NOT!
Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it? Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4th of July, when I tread lightly.” And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!” This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…
…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.
I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection. Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.” You shouldn’t. I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.” Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.
We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away. SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked. We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions. You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship. That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.
It’s a totally new world we live in. Get out your space helmets friends!
So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes. Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.
I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.
Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:
TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE
I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names. I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.
O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell. The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.
AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half. Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.
F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.
ANGI is still “meh”
CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.
GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.
Enough, I grow tired. See you homos later.Comments »
1 for 6
June, Q2, and all of its awesomeness are in the books. Now we must press into everyone’s favorite quarter, the third, infamous for blowing up accounts.
We had a little scare there for a minute, with bonds going tits up, but so far these fears have been swept under the rug with all the other market villains. Will the V-shaped bounce stick in PCK? It seems unlikely. Volume has tapered off on the bounce up, making the move appear to be of the dead cat varietal.
So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, whistling and skipping across the prairie…blue skies and Teletubbies, yet. If you are carrying yourself in such manner, have a plan. Otherwise a surprise cyclone could drop a garbage truck on your person, like the finger of God removing your sperm from the gene pool, benefitting humanity as a whole.
I say all this to you while I stand atop 80 percent long equities, most of which are consumer discretionary. Why would I carry such funk stocks in this uncertain climate? It’s simple really, like always. The wealthy, like always, they’re confident. They’re always confident, but lately their confidence is at all-time highs, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index. One of the best ways to improve the overall quality of your life is to upgrade your bed. Don’t sleep on some piker mattress from a garage sale, covered in sweat stains and bed bugs—filth, I spit on your bed. Most people (not most iBC loyalists) spend close to 40% of their lives in bed, why be ghetto about it? The answer is they aren’t, they’re buying TPX mattresses by the factory load. Good lord these babies have a sweet margin, too.
Also, there’s a big consumer push into adjustable beds. They promise ergonomics, improved circulation, and an ace reading position. Traditionally only the elderly and hospitalized enjoyed such decadence. Now they come with 52-inch retractable plasma screens at your feet. UUUuughghgu! Guess whose mattresses work best in such conditions? Yep, TPX.
Now I won’t chop my dick off if TPX isn’t trading to $50 in July, but I have a ton of conviction in the name. I crushed this trade late last year based on the same conviction. Are you going to tell me I’m wrong?
I have 11 other longs aka peak position count. I present them to you, largest-to-smallest, headed into July:
AAPL (lol), TPX, F, FB, ANGI, YGE, IMMR, Z, CREE, GS, AIXG, ENPH
May Julius Caesar and his month bring gifts to my person and yours.
The Market Feels Heavy
Yet the sellers can’t gain traction. Every attempt at sending price lower to fill the gap below stalls out. The sell orders are pressuring the bid this afternoon in the S&P minis but not achieving any progress. All of this pressure building up has to go somewhere.
Meanwhile, with the help of The PPT I found some shorts in ENPH and squeezed’em pretty well today. I scaled some profits, but left ½ the position on in case the pain trade continues. The weekly chart suggests it could.
I hopped on board Zillow today after the impressive Pending Home Sales Index, which crushed expectations. I hate when a house goes pending, BTW. When I was about 9 months into my hunt and houses would go pending in less than 3 days listed, I would chastise my real estate agent and damn the illiquidity of homes. This chart looks mint and I want it to keep looking mint so I can size it up. For now, I’m ½ size.
These F shares are working out, up around 4 percent since my entry. So far, we’re looking at a v-shape bounce in a big consumer discretionary. The same goes for TPX. This is like the housing trifecta: Z, F, TPX. You find the house, you buy the car, you buy the bed.
We’ve been trend up all week, which SHOMP-wise makes sense, but for all other intents and purposes seems odd. Now the questions becomes, do we run into the 4th of July? If we do, I want to be in patriotic names, like F.
I’m still in FB, did you know that? I’ve ridden through the trough, and now things are looking really good. This also fits the suburban lifestyle, shack up and talk politics with your delusional relatives. Note: I don’t do FB.
Anyhow, I’m 35 percent cash and long the following names. I’ve bolded my favorites and they’re listed by size, largest to smallest:
AAPL (fml), F, FB, SODA, YGE, Z, IMMR, CREE, TPX, ENPH, and ZIONComments »