The degree to which I care about bond holders and their draconian rights is so low, I must defy them.  It’s all bullshit, I’m not buying bonds, are you?   Don’t answer that.  I’ll buy bonds when all you rusty bastards die and I get a real interest rate.  In the meantime, prepare to get Dr. Detroit-ed.

Bear with me, I have a point but I forgot to eat today.  Take your shoes off and let me explain something to you.

Every summer like clockwork something matters.  Alas!  Something matters guys, let’s get on the teevee and talk about it.  Pity many of you subject yourselves to such hubris.  Pundits know as much about these markets as my cat.  Unlike my cat, their reflexes are slow, their climbing abilities poor.

I key off the S&P.  Call me old fashioned, but I’m from the school of thought that the most traded financial instrument in the world leaves a unique footprint in the financial world, one we can derive much from.   I brought 1579.25 – 1580.25 to your attention this morning, good people of iBankCoin, because it displayed significant price behavior and a curious profile footprint.

Then I took to twitter, which is a medium I enjoy, it fits my fringe lifestyle.  And all day I stammered on about this level like a crack head:

“Building acceptance, building acceptance, future, future, way of the future.”

I would unfollow me, I don’t know how anyone stands it.  Nevertheless, the level was our tell on the day.  We’re back inside a very significant value area and the market’s next move from here will be the tell going forward.

Bottom Line because food: we have clear guideposts to the next market move, I’m betting it’s higher, there’s a bullshit scare every summer, and Dan Aykroyd’s humor didn’t make sense to me until like a week ago.

Top picks: F, FB, YGE

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Whether you trade weekly, daily, tic, range, or minute charts you MUST recognize a lack of trend and behave accordingly.  To trade momentum there must be momentum.  I know V.King would enjoy that sentence.  Once you recognize conditions where momentum is gone, you must adjust to fading extremes or sideline yourself.  That’s it.

I like to use EMAs to give a trend some visual clarity.  When EMAs of different speeds (i.e. the 9 and 33 period) converge and then flatten out, that’s a strong indication the market is on pause.  Such was the case all morning.  Today it was easy for me to avoid because we were working inside a tight market profile and we had the Fed in the afternoon which I knew would give the market a pause.  More times than I would like to admit, I haven’t been so astute.  And every time I fail to recognize these conditions the alogs pick me to pieces.

I’ve been a doubter of any such trendless action most of June, but as the month drags on it’s becoming a distinct possibility that we’re entering a flat consolidation phase.  My 9 and 33 are flattening out and going sideways.  It would make sense too given that my momentum plays are all fizzling out.  Take a look:

 

I’ve spent the last few weeks churning my portfolio with small wins and medium losses.  All-in-all I’ve given back hard fought gains.  Anyone who tells you the gains came easy is wrong and unwashed.

Today I cut most of my China junket.  I sold off BIDU, YY, and MY.  I sold WETF along with the Fly and I took some profits in CREE, keeping the position about ½ size.

You may notice a much less manic tone in my writing.

I’m up over 50 percent cash now and lost around 1 percent today.  Current longs listed largest to smallest are as follows:

YGE, HMIN, IMMR, RVBD, CREE, SCTY, RGLD, TPX, and FB

I want to keep my speculative swing positions down.  I’m getting confused, tracking so many positions.  Plus liquidation becomes more taxing by my broker.

I’ll ride most of these through the trendless chop of the index.  But I swear little allegiance to any and will cut to make room for others.

I don’t love the idea of shorting up here, but both T and JBLU look like great swing shorts to my eye.

Bottom Line: It’s summer now.  We may still push higher but we’re showing signs of stalling momentum.  This is the third major pullback too, it has a much lower win rate then the first two.  HOWEVER, we’re on the proper side of the 33 EMA, my primary demarcation.

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On losing days, my old routine used to be calling up some buddies and having a few beers, chalking it up as another hard lesson from the market.  I can always have this mentality because the money, I don’t depend on it.  I’ve always been told consistent profitability in the markets requires a low stress money situation.  I agree.  I absolutely can’t imagine being in a financial pinch and trading.  As for the jumpers, they’re simply cowards who can’t swing the poor life, thrift shopping and such.

Today really wasn’t as bad as I’m making it out to be, but frustrations were quickly compounded and before I knew it I was going ‘Full Gibson’ beating people over the head with rocks and such.  I played back the tape of my futures trading just now and the mistakes didn’t start until I made it about me.

I made it about me.  Not the markets, because some crazy shit went down that rattled me.  Let me explain:

I took planned trades, trades with statistical advantages.  The first two win.  Good start.

The second trade takes off as soon as I get it in, looking great, gets to my exit, prints my target a few times, I don’t get filled and it slams down and takes me out break even.

At this point things are looking REALLY choppy and moving REALLY fast.  For the next 30 minutes all hell breaks loose, Raul taking funky ass unplanned trades.  Good God, it looks like I fired a machine gun at the screen.

Funny thing is, my last trade, a long…something was still firing in the old noggin…my exit looks like the most beautiful short entry you’ve ever seen.  The floor fell out seconds later for five handles, then many many more.

This all happens very fast you see.  I lost sight of the market.  I started having a very real and very strong feeling that the algorithms knew exactly where my stops and targets were, and they were fucking me. That’s paranoia…fear based nonetheless. Me, me, me, that’s what my internal dialogue sounded like.

Recognizing this, I cut almost all my risk out and pressed my cash to 65 percent.

Some names I just couldn’t let go of.  Here they are, presented by size (biggest-to-smallest):

AAPL, CREE, IMMR, RGLD, HMIN, DANG, and FB

I also hold some cheap lotto tickets in HPQ weekly calls and NFLX.

My fate as a trader lies entirely on backing off when conditions don’t favor my style of trading.  It’s something everyone has wrestled with I’m sure.  It’s never hit me this hard in my life, even though I’ve taken much larger financial blows.  I was furious.

It’s a learning experience as always, but this one left a lasting impression.

BOTTOM LINE: ALWAYS LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY

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Try as you might, you can’t buy RGLD sub 50.  Even when the opportunity presents itself, you’ll take to twitter and declare the next plunge in GDX.

Sometimes you don’t understand the force behind a play, but you go along with it anyway.  Broadcasting stocks are strong, I bought NXST.

Heptics, get with it.  IMMR

Your eyes are important.  Take care to keep them healthy even if it means getting away from your monitor to see the doctor.  No eyesight = no trader.

Utilities might actually die for bit.  Frowny face AWK.

CREE might take some heat next week.  I’m ready for that.  I’m ready for lots of that.  CREE is offering the EASIEST way for our country to reduce its energy consumption.  They’re perfectly aligned with our administrations agenda, and they make lots of money.  Hard to value but I continue to see all analyst coverage as short sighted.

FB is bracketed.  If it comes unhinged and decimates investors again I will me very surprised.

INVN is another great story stock, I’ll tell you over a bonfire soon.

HAIN is quiet, HAIN is good.

DECK made a nice comeback today.  I like comeback stories.  I smell seller exhaustion.

ANGI has been my second most profitable stock of the year to trade.  Who is to say I’m wrong at this juncture?

OMEX needs to find some sunken ship booty, stat.

Enjoy your holiday weekend.  Electronic music invades Detroit in a big way every Memorial Weekend.  I may partake mostly for the people watching.  I’ll be in-and-out, preparing for to crush our shortened trading week come Tuesday.

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Sometimes you have to let a trade effervesce, gently bubbling higher.  Such is the case with LOCK, apparently.

Other times you give the trade room, and only offer it your left hand.  This is how I’m getting back into my good friend RGLD, our favorite Senator’s mining situation.

Then there’s downright degeneracy, demanding nothing but instant gratification because well, you’re a degenerate and want it NOW!  If you bought SCTY this afternoon and didn’t have this mentality, I tip my hat to you and your courage.

Let me be frank for a moment.  This has been a fantastic, albeit slightly frantic, day for the bulls and America in general.  These markets are enfuego, IN MAY.  I really hope portfolio managers took their stupid axiom to heart and missed all this capital appreciation.  For I hate them, mostly.

Raul worked in the financial services industry once.  Let’s just say there wasn’t enough trading, if you know what I mean.

My happy place is buying and selling things, all the time, like one of those Pawn Star folk.

Into the weekend, my cash is down to 30 percent.

I’ve put a shit ton of longs on, more than I can properly manage.  This weekend, I’ll be ranking these and consolidating them down.  But as it stands, here’s the look, by size:

Trades: FB, ANGI, SCTY, JRCC, RGLD, GS, HAIN, LOCK, RGR

Investments: SAM, CREE, AAPL, AWK

If you follow along on the Twitter you’ve seen these things come on, you’ve seen me scaling them down, and now I bid you adieu.  I’m off to fillet and eat one of my minons.

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The market is digesting the gains bulls achieved earlier in the week with a consolidation today.  There isn’t a doubt in my mind that we’re overbought here.  But we simply haven’t seen any high volume distribution.  It’s just one rotation after another from extended stocks to the ones setup below.

I’m putting money in several names, looking to catch the next rotation.  I’ll be honest.  I don’t know where it will be.  My two primary rotational plays are LOCK and JRCC.  Lock is up over 10 percent this month but hasn’t pumped alongside the overall market this week.  JRCC is coal, so who the hell knows if it will catch a solid bid?

HAIN keeps marching ahead and I’m giving it space, but may take another scale soon.  I can’t resist booking gains.  The downside is I wind up with little fragments of runners in my books.  Current runner fragments include FB ANGI GS and RGR.  I’m considering adding to FB and RGR, but not ANGI up here.

My long term plays are AAPL AWK CREE and SAM.

My dog today is JOEZ jeans.  It needs to shape up soon or I’m cutting.

Cash is dwindling, down to 38 percent.

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I have positioned myself in these markets exactly how I didn’t want to—long this HDGE cheese and bologna sandwich with a side of stocks and cash.  What a shame it is.

This is how the week has played out for the Raul:

I’m trading this ES_F in the mornings.  I enjoy the process and planning.  My win rate is 70 percent meaning I’m right WAY more than wrong.  This is a critical component to consistent profitability.  However, I’ve deviated from my plan a few times this week and it has resulted in me losing money.  I’ve lost over 600 dollars, a gift to the market gods.  I kid you not, EVERY time I deviate from my plan I lose money.  Every time.  Next week, my goal is simply to not deviate from the plan.  If I stick to my plan 100 percent next week, I’m going downtown and getting a steak the size of a toilet seat.  Until then, no red meat.  I’ve been too aggressive.

I’m red on stocks too.  Unreal right?  Stock market went up five days straight!  My CREE is up 6 percent.  I’m still red.  I had a losing trade in ANGI.  Other notable weakness in my book includes FB and SAM.  BBRY is new and still looks decent, same with new long YELP bought this afternoon.

I have this damn HDGE.  It hasn’t bothered me all week, until today.  I bought this position as insurance for my book.  Much like real life, the insurance just costs me money and I receive zero benefit beyond homo peace of mind.  I’ve accepted that.  I even expected that.  But my patience wears thin.  My cost basis is $18.30 and it’s unlikely we see that level any time soon.  HOWEVER, it’s so very oversold here.  “Markets—rational—irrational—solvency”  bla bla bla.  I know…I’m not adding to this name, I’m simply managing my way out of it.  I’ll close on the next bounce.

As bad as this all sounds, my book is hardly down.  As a matter of fact, I’m 12 percent YTD.  Last year about this time I had already given back all my double digit gains on the year.  Perhaps memories of that savage dick punch are what have me positioned oh so homo.

All-in-all I still consider this week a success.  Sometimes you just have to pay the troll toll to get out of a market hole.  I’ll be burning thickets of sage to cleanse my home of demons and digging into The PPT for clarity.  Best part: we get to come back Monday and do it all again.

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It was a pretty interesting day to be a trader.  The sellers made themselves known early by pressing their bets as my plan leaned toward.  I can’t see the market as clearly at 4:15pm as I can at 4:15am.  I don’t know, perhaps the fatigue of juggling corporate job, playing hand grenade hot potato with stocks, keeping tabs on my enterprise, and staring out the window at the salty landscape below fade my edge by afternoon.  But when I wake up and turn on the markets, they’re so clear, OLED HD clear.  You should read those AM posts, they even surprise me.

I was an early seller, cutting more losers out of my book.  I cut Citi, Facebook, and Cree.  Cree was a ten bagger.  It was a fourteen bagger last week, doesn’t matter.  Then I sashayed into SRS (ultra-short real estate ETF) on the first dip of the day and swung it trough-to-peak and sold like a boss.  It felt nice.  It felt nice booking two winners today.  You know what else felt nice?  Seeing Restoration Hardware continue to get the homo hammer to the head.  Winning while losing.  Facebook turned into tank book after I sold it too.  Hell, I’ll take it.

After all the above was said and done, I was around 60% cash.  It felt too heavy, having that much cash, so I went hunting.  One of the advantages I have being an independent trader is position sizing.  I can get in and out no problem.  One of the disadvantages, in my opinion, is I can end up having too many names in my book.  Too much to keep track of.  I was cognizant of this early this year.  My goal then was to gamble a bit, but eventually build into 5-9 core holdings.  Before yesterday I had fifteen.  So when hunting, I looked first at my existing positions, where they have gone since origination, and whether I could add.  I’ve booked two solid gains in Zynga and was sitting on a legacy position up over 30%.  Sure it could go back to its horrible 10% slasher-horror antics, but it shrugged these last two days off.  Thus I bought more.  This is however, slightly uncharacteristic of my style.  I usually wait for buyers to step in and confirm support.  That’s something I now have left unknown.  Thus the position is not full sized, but instead ¾.

Then I bought TSLA because the earnings reaction felt overdone, it’s near a risk I’m willing to wager, and there was heavy volume lifting the offer into the closing bell.

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Holy earnings blow out.  Look at our newest enterprises, wowing the street with hot numbers.  Zillow and Angie’s List are ripping afterhours, partially because there’s a housing resurgence, partially because they’re the way of the future, the future, way of the future, ehm. Future.  Howard Hughes (HHC) ripped all day.  That was my tribute to the aviation legend.

Fly pens posts like ‘The Amazing Market’ that get me so pumped to bank coin I have to sit in my car for 10 minutes listening to classical music so I don’t put my head through the windshield like Busta Rhymes the first time he heard Eminem.  Get excited people!  These rip-tastic days are numbered.  You need to, “get it while it’s here boy.”

Every time I upload a blog post I feel like I’m a member of the future society.  It’s never a burden.  Just as many Americans enjoy a fecal cruise, I enjoy typing a message to the world then permanently etching it into the archives of the greatest website on the internet.  Future.

ZNGA, Z, YELP, FB, TRIP, OPEN, ANGI, LNKD, take your pick.  One of them is going to double.  Stick to the charts and you can ride along without getting castrated by the inevitable loser.

If you can’t allocate risk capital into this space, you’re bound to miss out.  I’ve been beaten with a dough roller by YELP once.  I cut off my right pinky as a reminder to stay humble (kidding).  But know what type of beast you’re dealing with.  Know the range volatility and position accordingly. 

One can only lead a horse to water.  You best take a drink before Elizamae makes you his main course.

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Let me get you hip to a recurring theme in this market.  If a company beats analyst expectations and rips higher the next session, it will continue to run.  Look at PPC, GS, and CREE for example.  They gap and go.  This type of participation is a blaring signal of high demand for quality equities.  Risk is being put on in a big way.

We had a strong January, we had a funny little Super Bowl with a power outage, and now we have an EPIC SNOW STORM.  All of this happened amidst indices making new highs.

I come to iBankCoin late at night and dig into The PPT, building beautiful watchlists and highlighting industries that I like.  Then the session starts and all of those names lose my interest.  Then, by an invisible hooded force, I start buying social names.  I cannot explain this behavior.  All I imagine is mysterious hooded monks chanting in a dim-lit stone room to the stock gods, willing participants into the social stocks.  Crazy I know.

I’ve been a buyer all morning.  I bought more ANGI up here, I bought more ZNGA up here, and I bought more FB down around here.  I may have a nasty case of rally fever, be forewarned.

Other buys today: HES and RH

I’m eyeing a couple other stocks as we enter the afternoon.  Let’s see how they close’em.

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