There was an interesting occurrence this morning right before we printed the low of the day.  Price traded down to the overnight lows and then completely stalled.  This was right about when the POTUS took to the podium.  Then, as I had suggested may occur, we breached the overnight (yesterday) low briefly, the flow of stop losses created a temporary oversold condition, buyers reacted to seeing the weak sellers and a sharp buying tail printed on the /ES market profile. We also snapped the following trend line lower, finally:

I bought the YGE full sized amidst all this.  It was very lovely execution that brings a little sparkle to Raul’s eye.

The velocity of the move was enough to put plenty of shorts in the hole.  It should make for an interesting afternoon as value is being set higher then I expected in my scenario 1 balance hypothesis.

With today’s YGE purchase, I am about 85% long, mostly crack rock stocks—stocks like CREE, RVLT, YGE, AMBA, MHR, FB, RBCN, and CLF.

Can you believe I am nearly up 100% on my FB common?  I’m holding steady until at least $100.

The weak-to-strong closing type would be a change of character in the recent market activity and we may be looking at an inflection point.  It is a bit early to tell, but I like my aggressive positioning here.

I intend to use my winnings to finance the purchase of a Tesla Model S, the greatest automobile currently in production.

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The intraday volatility was certainly in place today as risk came off the table.  The S&P printed ten handles of selling with a few healthy rotations to allow short entry.  The Euro dollar via the /6E was confirming risk off too, trading in tandem with the /ES before going flat around noon.

Since around 1pm the market stabilized and balanced out.  The question on every bull’s mind is are we at an inflection point where this countertrend rally comes to an end?  I saw an interesting tweet from @StevenPlace that we have only had four consecutive down days twice this year.  The sellers certainly have been effective in erasing the euphoria that ensued post #NoTaper so perhaps a third data point is on the docket.

I will cover key levels to monitor on the S&P tomorrow morning to gauge sentiment and a potential turn around Tuesday, but as we close I get the feeling we will see overnight rotations and a sizeable gap to manage in the morning.

My portfolio is down a sultry two percent, championed by the broken wings of RVLT.  The weakness in RVLT neither surprises nor upsets as it has been my expectation for weeks.  Hell, I think it prints fresh swing lows to really get people off their rockers.  Ah, the stock market can be so cruel.  I will continue to dollar cost average.

I earned about 50% of what I made last week today trading futures.  It is good to see some intraday life coming back into the market as we enter Fall trading.

I cut off my Zillow loss early on and moved the funds laterally into AMBA.  I may be early to the AMBA party here as it is still consolidating.  Dash cam, FTW.

Top picks into Tuesday’s tape: AMBA and ELLI (no position currently in ELLI #want)

I also want some Miley:

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I was not actively trading the /ES today, but my algo was able to take two trades.  One earned 1.75 handles and the other was breakeven.

My portfolio had a very strong day today, up nearly three percent and putting me back near my high watermark of the year.  I’ve been trading my butt off to finance these investments in RVLT and CREE.  As a result, when RVLT and CREE go up, I have big days.

Let’s discuss RVLT a bit.  If we consider the sentiment chart idea, we find ourselves within the panic bounce.  To me this means any rally we see over the next few days/weeks is likely to fail.  How do you like that?  I’m telling you right now that my largest position is involved in a failed rally.  And that’s okay because my timeframe on this position is multi-year.  Let’s hope I’m correct so we can have better opportunities to buy even more shares.  Another anecdotal piece of evidence calling this rally into question is one of its origins: a {cringe} Seeking Alpha report.  The bozos at SA (as the hipsters call them) were greased to help somebody get out of a seriously underwater position.  This is just a theory, but their track record is eroding though the diligent work of iBankCoin Chief Market Strategist “The Fly”.  It puts a foul stink on the whole move.  If it wasn’t a pleasant twenty percent pressure release valve I would be even more ornery.

However, CREE reported they have retrofitted the NASA headquarters and done so quite successfully.  Hmm, Cree really knows how to land the big fish, yes?  Wrong!  The biggest fish tend to be the wisest fish—having survived years of fishing and boat propellers.  If/when these gigantic fish encounter a situation where their lighting is called into question, the data will unequivocally point them in the direction of LEDs.  Any entity that weighs the financial impact of any business decision will see the cost benefit of retrofitting their existing light structure with LEDs.  And CREE, RVLT, OESX, AIXG, RBCN, and GTAT will benefit.  Look at GTAT…shorts better pray to their demon lords that sadistic seven holds as resistance.  Otherwise the light, the good, shall prevail.

Other big winners today were TRLA, CLF, and END.  Readers, I’ve been clear with my calls.  It’s up to you to wrap risk around them.  I scaled a small piece of TRLA off because I take profit when the markets giveth.

My SKF has gone red by about three percent.  Tomorrow it comes to an interesting fork in the road where I’ll either buy more, do nothing, or scratch the trade.  I was hesitant to add to the position today when the SPY absolutely refused to roll over.  Checking back in just now, it appears it did manage to roll, BARELY.  Until I see more confirmation, I’m not loving this trade.

END needs to rip, I mean, come’on now, we’ve been flirting with the idea of going all the way for weeks. Why not get past this game of just the tip as @chessNwine often references?  I think we do, hence why I haven’t scaled any off yet.

CLF is tricky.  It has been dead money for so long and now it shows signs of life.  Do we trust it?  Or do we take our six percent and dump this cheap trick?  TBD

In closing, I kicked my cash up to 25 percent and could like to see some market weakness to buy my favorite stocks sitting on my wish list—names like Z, SFM, GOGO, AMBA, ADHD, and VPCO.

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I had a flat tire when I woke.

The markets took a pause for the most part today and although a calm, balanced day should be high on your expectations following a trend day today was borderline absurd.  The first hour of trade is referred to as the initial balance.  The probability of taking out neither the high nor the low during a day session is less than five percent over the last five years of data.

Today we witnessed a tape so benign it was special.  I took a long at 10:30 AM, missed my profitable exit around 3pm, and scratched the trade break even at 3:10pm.  You wouldn’t believe the frustration that trade produced.  I mean, I look at a stock trade like RVLT, slowly bleeding the lifeblood from my person, like a particularly pestering mosquito.  Eventually winter comes and it freezes and dies.  But each /ES position carries a marginal value over $30,000…which is why I like my gratification instant.  My algo, Elroi was dormant today.  I expected as much since Elroi thrives in high velocity conditions.  Bossram put me on the right side of the opening bell and I extracted 1.5 handles.

I beat my head against the urinal wall then ate several hummus treats.

I had quite the laugh when I saw my boss for the first time today and, I kid you not, he was wearing a full Canadian tuxedo.  It was so majestic.  The only wardrobe piece missing was a mystical wolf tee shirt.  He also wasn’t rocking the official Canadian belt buckle.  Needless to say, it was a clear omen from the stock gods and I sold the majority of my BBRY long.  I’ve kept a 1/3 runner in case Wayne Gretzky makes a surprise move onto the board of directors.

The wires are reporting AMBA in fact beat expectations, as was written in these halls for months by our fearless leader, Senor Tropicana.  As you know, I exited the position yesterday, but I’m still bullish on the name.  The GoPro is as cool as RedBull these days.

I slapped on a pretty sizable SKF position into the bell.  It seems in slight haste in hindsight, but I had just untethered myself from the /ES and found the action excessively befuddling.  Therefore I thought it prudent first to sell one of my longs.  But I looked at all of them, the little rug rats, and I couldn’t part ways with any.  So I tossed on the SKF hedge.

I sold a little bit of YGE but I’m keeping a small piece just in case it keeps going.

I took nearly a full size position in CLF early on, it looks hot.

Time to go home.

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I really like the feel I had trading the /ES_F today.  I’ve currently pigeonholed my discretionary trading to conform to the BOSSRAM ALPHA cycle.  This prevents me rushing.  It allows me to measure where we are in the cycle after some broad redundantly calls my phone so she can hear herself talk and position (or hand sit) accordingly.

You see, plates, I juggle so many.

One of my favorite trades in the market requires full attention because it can fly in your face quickly.  I didn’t want to stop trading the chart picture simply because my day job doesn’t afford me focus so I automated it.  This was the birth of ELROI.

Elroi doesn’t trade the picture as profitably as me.  But what he lacks in profitability Elroi makes up in consistency.  Elroi bagged 3.75 handles in profit today on trades that were too racy for me.  I on the other hand, wielding Bossram, made $25 or 0.50 handles.

But it was fun to watch Elroi go to work while I waited for the market to come into the Bossram wheelhouse.  This week I reset my account to $10k: five for me, five for Elroi, and I pulled the rest out to buy cat food.

You see, trading the /ES since April has been by and large a circle jerk and a dangerous one at that.  It came down to losing focus.  I’ve…courourrrected the problem and put several policies and procedures in place to ensure the new habits stick.  My future’s trading operation is looking more like a Fortune 500 company every week.  Goodness, companies like AMZN, GOOG, and SBUX aren’t on these lists by luck.

Learn from their cultures.

Now it’s exciting and I’m happy to fire up my futures every morning.  It’s me verses Elroi.  So far he’s winning.

ON TO STOCKS:

I sold AMBA entirely today.  I told you very clearly I was taking this cheap trick for 10 percent and then taking my business elsewhere.  AMBA fucked me once, I fucked AMBA once.  Perhaps after earnings we can make love, or something.  I earned about 8 percent on the trade.  It was a 12 percent position.

I took profits in Ford(s) because I was watching the /ES_F weaken.  It’s nothing personal.  I still have a 5% position.

My top performers were END and YGE.

RVLT continues to ‘suck goat’ instead of retrofitting Manhattan with LEDs.  Get to work you zoophiles.

I bumped my cash up above 25 percent and was up 1.75 percent on the day.  I needed it.  One thing is certain.  When RVLT stops going down…I’m forecasting champagne showers.

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The inefficiencies of the market place are working their way to the surface this week, or so it seems to my eyes.  I want fresh cash ready to deploy into the market so I used this morning’s strength to toss out some old names and make way for new.

I closed out my TPX long near $40.  I thought it best to avoid staring at this gift horse for too long.  I lost 9 percent on the trade.  Not too shabby.  I like when I get excited about a loss, it means big wins are near.

I closed my EXK runner out too.  The USA dollar was ripping overnight and I’m not trying to get fancy.  The runner was still 4 percent in the profit so I cashed it out.

I cut AMBA, I’m not liking what the tea leaves are showing:

I planned on selling GTAT and OCZ this morning too, but after hesitating a brief moment they’re both back in the slop trough with other opportunities.

These sales brought my cash up to 50 percent.  I may miss a big blow off move on the Fed this afternoon, but should we see a downdraft I’ll be more prepared to pounce.

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And just like that I’m managing a -10% position.  It’s 2/3 size too, dragging my book down nearly a full percentage.  I’m talking about none other than action camera extraordinaire Ambarella, Inc.

“It just happened so fast.” – Famous last words.

Seriously though, this is what happens when you’re caught in a momentum downdraft.  There were too many weak hands in this name apparently.  Perhaps the weak hands still exist, flailing around, in need of correction.

I’ll have you know I’ve been corrected my entire life.  My 4^th grade teacher would slap my hands with a yard stick for disrupting Bible studies.  Even with carbon dating, I could never convince her dinosaurs existed.

“God put dinosaur bones in the ground to test our faith in Jesus.”  Right…may I have another slice of Jesus body?  I’m starving.

With AMBA, we’re in an IPO environment and the company creates camera components.  It’s not some social concept that curious minds gather around and debate where the money comes from.  IT COMES FROM SELLING PRODUCT.  There ought to be some buyers down here, perhaps at my final buying tranche.

I’ve clearly built into the name too soon, enticed by the virgin blood.  I’m in bed with the name now, prepared to deploy more capital between $15.50 – $14.25.

TPX went on a rally today, still my largest position, and perhaps I should just cut my losses at this point, down a mere 10 percent.  Perhaps, but the chart resembles bracketed trade, ranging from 35 – 50 so the greater risk at this very moment is to the downside.  That is, if my bracket theory is correct.

FaceBook is really bringing some heat to the market.  It’s exciting to see.

I had quite the run on GTAT today, but I’ve already sold most of it, booking a cool 6 percent in profits.  I’ll always grab that bread when it’s offered.  I still hold a runner that wants more, more, more.

I’ve held AIXG for so long, since June, and it has done NOTHING.  HOWEVER, it has done nothing.  All the while Europe is sucking, including Aixtron’s brethren from another reverend Deutsche Bank whiffing on earnings.  So perhaps any updraft will lift this name with great vengeance and furious anger?  I’ll stick around a bit longer.  This is my German LED play, BTW.

I have several other small positions, 25% cash, and a 10% FXY position as we ride into a very headline heavy day tomorrow.  I suppose I’m feeling lucky.

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I’m having an interesting morning as the Chinese say, with much to keep my attention and interest.  I closed out FIVE for a 2% loss after the broad market lost its momentum.

Early on I had eyes on both GTAT and RBCN, suspecting one of the sapphire names to run.  I went with GTAT and the position is up 2 percent so I should be happy right?  Wrong!  RBCN was the choice to make, up as much as 10 percent on the day.

TPX is working off some of the post-earnings selloff and the only news I see is they’re supplying the Chicago Bears with beds during training camp.  Please dispose of said beds in the proper biohazard receptacle afterwards.

FB lead by heartthrob Mark Zuckerberg is gliding along like a boat on the Spanish Riviera, all the while Marc whispering sweet nothings into my ear.

AMBA is going full Jeb Corliss for the time being.  I like it because it lets me know the name has a pulse.  Remember, momentum cuts both ways.

One long in the S&P futures, took a 1.5 handle loss. The trade had an 85 % plan compliance.

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The markets are soft this morning and they’ve afforded me the opportunity to buy more shares of AMBA.  This trade is playing out exactly how I hoped it would, allowing me to back the truck up.  With a bit of luck you’ll trade it down to $15.50 so I can buy more, yes.

I’m aggressive dip buyer in this name until further notice.

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Seriously, stop buying AMBA.  Sometimes I want a 14 year old version of me to travel through time, find me, and kick me in the nuts repeatedly for being a douche.

How didn’t I know about AMBA until Il Dottore Ultimo brought it to our attention?  I feel dirty, shamed.

Something needed to be done instantly, so I bought some this morning, about 1/3 the size I really want.

Now I want it to go lower so don’t buy any!

Here’s what has my jimmies all rustled: they’re a key component in the GoPro camera.  Have you any idea the cultural significance of these little cameras!?  Damn, they’re the best, the bee’s knees, the cat’s god damned pajamas for chrissake.  I have two.

My buddy has five, he’s a freak.

Let me tell you, there’s footage out there….oh boy it’s good.

You can hide these things so easily and control them with your iPhone, I love it.

Or you can mount it to your head and go be a jackass, your call.

Either way, they’re vital and so is AMBA.

Henceforth, I’m in bed with AMBA.

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