NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap up, up beyond the prior six days’ ranges after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price steadily campaigned higher overnight, pressing up beyond the Wednesday high early into Globex and continuing to advance, balance, then continue throughout the night. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out slightly better than expected, but it seems investors are more keen on tomorrow morning’s employment data. No reaction to this morning’s data. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Tuesday’s liquidation session.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down in range. There was a drive higher at the open. it stalled right along the Tuesday midpoint, before filling the overnight gap and sellers made a sharp move lower, effectively taking out Tuesday low and closing the Monday gap in one fell swoop. Here we formed a sharp excess low, and did so before the first hour of trade was complete. This would be low-of-day. Buyers pressed to an early range extension up, closing the overnight gap. Very methodical. Then we checked back to the midpoint. Methodical. Buyers held the mid for several hours before an afternoon rally saw price work up near the Tuesday high. We balanced along the high for a bit before ultimately taking out the high during settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, buyers squeeze up to 15,006.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 half gap fill. Sellers work into overnight inventory and close a half gap down to 14,870 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 14,759.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down about -150 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price fell down through the Tuesday midpoint around 9:30pm and then consolidated until about 3am. The 3am hour has been dominated by sellers the last month-or-so. Around 3am sellers pressed down through the Tuesday low and down into the lower quadrant of Monday’s range. Then around 6am New York bidders stabilized the selling. Then around 7am the auction reversed higher. At 8:15am adp employment forecast came out well above expectations, and as we approach cash open price is hovering back inside the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a  slight gap up in range. Buyers drove higher shortly after an open test. Sellers made an attempt shortly after to gap fill but failed and then a steady buying/accumulation campaign took hold. Said buying continued until about 11:30am. Then after several hours of balance/consolidation buyers made another push higher but stalled around 3:30pm before closing the weekend gap. Instead we saw quick selling into the close. We ended the session above the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 14,660. From here buyers continue higher, trading up through overnight high 14,674.75. Look for sellers up at 14,700 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers reject out of Tuesday low 14,497.50 early on setting up a move down through overnight low 14,422.50. Look for buyers down at 14,388.25 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 full-on liquidation lower. Sellers take out Monday low 14,367.75 early on setting up a gap fill down to 14,324. Stretch targets 14,300 and then 14,272.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of September up about +70 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing inside the Wednesday range. At 8:30am GDP data came out better than expected and jobless claims were higher than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering along the Wednesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Chicago PMI at 9:45am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap up in range. After a brief open auction buyers drove higher, pressing up out of the consolidation zone from Tuesday before being met by responsive sellers who defended their conviction zone. This led to some chop along the midpoint before sellers pressed us into range extension down into New York lunch.

Sellers probed the lows for a bit before a sharp responsive bid shot price up through the mid. Then late in the session sellers reclaimed the mid and we closed out the session in the lower quadrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 14,883.50 setting up a tag of 14,900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers rally to 15,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,774 then continue lower, taking out overnight low 14,754.75 on their way to tagging 14,700.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, mostly balancing along the lower half of Tuesday’s range. After briefly probing above the Tuesday mid around 3am, sellers reclaimed the mid around 7am and as we approach cash open price is hovering about -45 points below that mid.

On the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed Chairman Powell set to speak at 11;45am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down below the prior three sessions’ ranges. After a brief test higher, sellers drove down into the open, sending price on a discovery down into levels unseen since July 21st. The downward auction sort of came to an end around New York lunch, sort of. Three bounce attempts were faded back down to the lows and we ended the day on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 14,926 setting up a move to 15,000 before chop resumes.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,758.25. Sellers continue lower, taking out overnight low 14,749 on their way to tagging 14,705.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers liquidate down to 14,600.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final Tuesday of September down a quick -225 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the Monday midpoint until about 2:45am New York when sellers stepped in and began a steady selling campaign that saw price down into last Monday’s lower quadrant. As we approach cash open price is hovering just below last Tuesday’s low, near last Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have international trade in goods (advance) at 8:30am followed by consumer confidence at 10am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down just below last Friday’s low. Sellers rejected an attempt back into Friday range during an open-two-way auction setting up a fast move lower to tag the 15,00 century mark. The auction turned here, and we spent the rest of the morning campaigning higher, eventually pushing to a range extension up before New York lunch. Then price fell back to the mid, sort of walked all over it for a few hours before rallying into the close, effectively tagging the Friday naked volume point of control. Price faded off the highs into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and tag 15,100. Some battle here before buyers continue higher to close the overnight gap 15,185.50. Look for sellers up at 15,200 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down to 14,900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger seller press down through last week’s low print 14,807 triggering a liquidation down to 14,705.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final week of September gap down about -120 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was stable Sunday evening, steadily rising up through last week’s high and holding these levels until about 3:30am. From 3:30am price has gone unidirectionally lower, effectively erasing the Sunday rally and more. At 8:30am durable goods orders came out stronger than expected (in line ex-auto). As we approach cash open price is hovering along the Friday low.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 6-month T-bills and 2-year notes for auction at 11:30am followed by 3-month bills and 5-year notes at 1pm.

Last week featured a major gap down Monday across the board. The rest of the week saw price steadily claw back the weekend losses and the week concluded on a high note, with price at the weekly highs.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down in range. There was an open two-way auction and then a tight, choppy range all morning. Then halfway through the New York lunch hour buyers pressed into a range extension up and began to campaign for the gap fill. They met a bit of resistance ahead of the gap around 1:45pm, then after a shallow pullback resumed their campaign, effectively closing the gap and continuing higher to tag the Thursday value point-of-control [VPOC].

Of note. The Friday VPOC never shifted off the lower distribution, suggesting a lack of participating on the late-Friday upside move.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down to 15,115-15,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers tag the 15,000 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory, closing the overnight gap 15,316.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final Friday in September down about -115 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper half of Thursday’s range until about 3am New York when a steady selling campaign began. Said selling continues, and as we approach opening bell price is hovering along the Thursday low.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales along with Powell speaking at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up in range and after a brief open two-way auction buyers stepped in and drove higher, pressing up through the 15,300 century mark ahead of lunch and then price consolidated through lunch before making a second push higher in the afternoon. The second push made a new high but sort of fizzled off the highs into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up at 15,309 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, taking out 15,150 early on and sustaining trade below to set up a move down to 15,100.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 15,004.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s range until about 3:30am when buyers pressed up beyond the Wednesday range and briefly trade back up into last week’s low. Since then price has drifted lower. Then at 8:30am jobless claims data came out lower than expected and as we approach cash open price is hovering up beyond the Wednesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a slight gap up in range. Sellers made a quick move on the open to resolve the gap but were met by strong responsive buyers before they could do so. Said buyers managed to work price up through the Monday/Tuesday highs and tag the 15,200 century mark. Then we drifted back to the daily midpoint and awaited the FOMC announcement.

The Feds left their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged but opened the door for a rate hike at the next meeting. Here are some other key take aways from the announcement:

*FOMC: Maintains $80 Billion Treasury Buying, $40 Billion MBS Buying Per Month

*FOMC: Economy Has Made Progress Toward Bond Taper Goals

*FOMC: Fed Bond Taper 'May Soon Be Warranted'

*FOMC: Inflation Elevated On Transitory Factors

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 22, 2021

 

*FOMC: Raised Individual Counterparty Reverse Repo Limit From $80B To $160B

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 22, 2021

*Fed Officials See Inflation of 4.2% at End of 2021; 2.2% for 2022; 2.2% for 2023

*Fed Officials See Core Inflation of 3.7% at End of 2021; 2.3% for 2022; 2.2% for 2023

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 22, 2021

Third reaction to the information was up. And after making a new daily high price spiked back down to the daily mid. Buyers held the mid and we ended the day in the upper quadrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reject a move back into Wednesday high 15,227 setting up a move up through overnight high 15,310. Look for sellers up at 15,344.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers recapture Wednesday high 15,227 and sustain trade below it setting up a move down through overnight low 15,165.25. Look for buyers just below at 15,150 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work to resolve the Tuesday gap down at 14,982.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the Tuesday midpoint after briefly exceeding the Tuesday low early in the Globex session. As we approach cash open price is hovering above the Tuesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year frn note auction at 11:30am, then at 2pm we have the FOMC announcement followed by a 2:30pm press conference.

The CME fed fund futures are currently pricing a 100% probability rates the benchmark Fed borrowing rate will remain unchanged.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up in range. After a brief open-two-way auction buyers made a push higher. Said buyers failed to take out the Monday high. Sellers stepped in and closed the overnight gap and into an early range extension down. Responsive buyers were active at the Monday close and worked price back up through the daily mid but could not sustain price above the mid after New York lunch. Buyers made an afternoon attempt at pressing into a neutral print but stalled out before taking out the daily high. Sellers were active during the settlement pushing price back down to the daily low but never exceeding it.

On the whole we printed an inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go up through 15,100 on their way to tagging 15,200. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,982 then continue lower taking out overnight low 14,930.50. Look for buyers down at 14,900. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 15,302 resolving the weekend gap. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower quadrant of Friday range until about 9pm New York when sellers stepped in and began driving price lower. There was a bit of a two-way battle around 15,200 until about 4am when sellers continued to dominate the tape. And as we approach cash open price is hovering down below 15,100, levels unseen since August 20th.

On the economic calendar today we have housing market index at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we had choppy volatility that gradually drifted lower while chopping along. Then strong selling action into the weekend. The Russell 2000 was bullish divergent.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down in range that sellers drove down into, effectively taking out the the weekly low early in the session and defending attempts back into the Thursday range a bit later in the day. There was a bit of a bounce late in the session but it hardly managed to push through the lower quadrant. Sellers were still active into settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory, trading up to 15,226.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 press down through overnight low 15,048.25 and tag 15,000.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work up to 15,341.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »