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We are so back, the crisis is over, commence max bidding

The dang models been pegged bearish for like two months. I am not sure what the heck is going on. I may need to go in and update the thresholds. Nevertheless it is finally coming into a week neutral, and May is underway, and the weather is so fine, and long live the King, and we really like the early polls suggesting sleepy Jim will dominate the reelection cycle.

The axiom says to sell IN May, not like right when May starts. May is a month of hope, and flowers and babies and mammas and 36-hour-long disco raves.

And whilst many Americans are completely on edge, convinced they see massive tears in the fabric of society, some of us just want sunshine and sweet corn. And those folks, folks like your dear and humble pal Raul, well those folks are certain a strong season is upon us.

The charts lo0k good. Semiconductors are at a healthy range low with lots of room to gallop higher. Big tech put up some dang good numbers this quarter. Those Russian crusaders, those red bastards, they’re losing to The West. The West, a wonderful place where patriotism goes to die and we all sort of melt into this brackish blob of hedonists. Really wonderful.

Elon won folks. Those militant news fuckers could not cancel our dear leader, and He consistently wakes up every morning and guides us to a technocratic future where merit matters more than culture wars.

So pretty much as long as you only invest in big tech and Berkshire, it looks like clear skies from now on.

Go on, take some risk, live a little.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, May 7th 2023

And now the 427th [Truncated] Strategy Session


Truncated Stocklabs Strategy Session: 05/08/23 – 05/12/23

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.03, neutral. Warren Buffet sets the tone early on this week. Expect Monday morning’s trading action to carry through to Wednesday. Then watch for third reaction to the CPI direction to dictate direction until about 2pm Wednesday when the Treasury releases a statement. Lots of Fed speak this week which may or may not induce some choppiness.

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

INDEX MODEL

Bias model is signalling Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish.

Here is the current spread:

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Gap down in range ahead of Fed day // here is Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the third Wednesday of December with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume. Price was choppy and balanced overnight, balancing along the topside of Tuesday’s midpoint. At 8:30am retail sales data came out below expectations and a bit of selling hit the tape. As we approach cash opne price is hovering above the Tuesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have business inventories and housing market index at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and then a Fed rate decision at 2pm (followed by a press conference at 2:30pm).

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down into the gap zone from last Monday. Buyers drove higher on the open but stalled before they could regain Monday range. Instead 16k was a wall and sellers proceeded to close the gap left behind last week monday. Sellers probed a bit below the gap before the auction reversed mid afternoon and ramped back above the midpoint into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 15,922.25. From here buyers probe beyond Tuesday high 15,998.75 setting up a run to 16,100. Then look for third reaction to the Fed decision to dictate direction into the end of the day.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 15,848 and tag 15,800. Then look for third reaction to the Fed decision to dictate direction into the end of the day.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 16,148. Then look for third reaction to the Fed decision to dictate direction into the end of the day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Longs liquidated overnight // sellers use PPI data to fuel their campaign // here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday of quad-witching week gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove lower overnight, driving down into near last Monday’s high after the 8:30am PPI data showed producer prices higher than expected. As we approach cash open price is floating in the gap zone left behind last week.

There are no other economic events scheduled today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day was about to begin with a slight gap up but just before opening bell sellers stepped in and started working the tape lower. By the open we were nearly flat and sellers continued their campaign, pressing down into last Friday’s volume point of control. Buyers defended here briefly before sellers resumed control and through steady selling took out last Friday’s low. Then we chopped along that Friday low until a late day push lower sent price down into last week’s pro gap zone.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reject a move back into last Monday’s high, perhaps stepping in at the Monday gap level 15,832.75 and reversing the auction higher. Look for buyers to trade up through overnight high 16,132.75 and tag 16,146.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, reclaiming 15,900 early on and sustaining trade below it to set up a move down to 15,800.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 16,200 setting up a run to 16,300.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Small gap up into quad-witching week // here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second full week of December with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price worked higher overnight, trading up up near last week’s high but not quite taking it out. As we approach cash open price is hovering in last Thursday’s upper quadrant.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy and flat early Monday before a late-day rally. Then we had a pro gap up Tuesday. Most everything held the pro gap for the rest of the week, closing on a strong note, except for the Russell which faded into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up in range. A brief test higher at the open tagged the Thursday volume point of control before sellers stepped in and began working a gap fill. Buyers stepped in ahead of the gap fill and shot price up through the midpoint, only to be rejected by sellers who soon pushed into an early range extension down on their way to filling the overnight gap. That would be the end of the day’s selling. Sellers could not take out Thursday low despite being so close. Buyers reclaimed the mid by lunch and we spent most the rest of the session chopping above it befoer a late-day ramp pushed us into a neutral print.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 16,413 setting up a run to 16,500.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 16,552.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 16,320.75.  Look for buyers down at 16,300 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Gap down in range ;-) here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second Thursday in December gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price poked up through the Wednesday high shortly after the close yesterday. Since then it has been slowly rotating lower. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out much better than expected (through seasonality factors may attribute) and as we approach cash open price is hovering along the Wednesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap down in range. Sellers drove lower off the open, driving down near the midpoint, then they held the mid and made a second attempt lower but failed. This set up a gap fill and poke up beyond the Tuesday high. This was met with sharp selling and price faded down through the mid. Price chopped along the bottom-side of the mid until about 11:15am but could not take out initial balance low. Instead buyers pivoted the mid during New York lunch and just before 2pm we were range extension up. There was one last check back tot he mid before a rally into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 16,381.75. From here buyers continue higher, tagging 16,459.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 16,500.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through Wednesday low 16,251.50 setting up a tag of 16,200.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ pro gap up // here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first Tuesday in December pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price shot higher overnight starting around midnight New York and continuing to rally until about 4:30am. Said rally sent price back up into last Wednesday (12/1) range, and as we approach cash open price is holding a tight balance above that day’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3-year note auction at 1pm followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a slight gap up in range. Sellers resolved the gap with an early drive lower that also managed to tag the Friday volume point of control but failed to take out the Friday low. Instead a sharp responsive buy hit the tape and after a battle along the mid sellers made an attempt lower but failed again. This triggered a strong move higher before 10:30am. Then we fell back to the midpoint. Buyers held the mid twice setting up a run at range extension up. This move held and we chopped along the high into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, tagging 16,200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 16,316.75.

Hypo 3 sellers work a gap fill down to 15,832.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Small gap down into first full week of December // here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures down about -40 heading into Monday after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower quadrant of Friday’s range until about 4:30am when a hard sell pushed into the market. Said sellers stalled before taking out the Friday low. Since then we have flagged below the balance that occurred during the early part of the Globex session. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower quad of Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a gap up and rally all day Monday. There was some sustained rallying early Tuesday before a sharp sell hit the tape late Tuesday morning. Wednesday was sort of choppy early on, then there was a hard fade lower into the close. Thursday was choppy ahead of a strong trend lower Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend down. The day began with a slight gap up. After an open two way auction buyers made a brief test up beyond Thursday high. Sellers stepped in and rejected a move up beyond Thursday high, setting up a quick gap fill and drive down through Thursday low. Sellers continued lower, effectively closing some gaps we left behind on 10/26 (nearly to the tick) and 10/27. There was a ramp off the lows into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectations is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 15686.50. From here buyers continue higher, tagging 15,885 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 15,592 and campaign down through Friday low 15,538. Look for buyers down at 15,500 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 15,394.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Rate hike pushed out to September // Powell, consumer confidence on deck // here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of November gap down in range after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price ticked up beyond the Monday high around 9:30pm New York Monday evening and then fell down through the Monday midpoint on heavy selling that lasted until about 1am. Sellers weren’t able to take out the Monday low, instead price stablized after returing to the Monday midpoint. Around 4:30am Fed fund futures over at the cme indicated that participants were no longer expecting a July 2022 rate hike, pushing the expectation of a 25 basis point hike out to September:

At 9am case shiller home price index came out in line with expectations, and as we approach cash open price is hovering above the Monday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Chicago PMI at 9:45am and then consumer confidence at 10am. Also at 10am Fed Chairman Powell is set to speak. Then at 11:30am there is a 52-week T-bill auction.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up near the Friday high, leaving some of the panic of Friday down in the hole. There was a two-way battle for the first few hours. Buyers made an early surge towards the Friday high and stalled just before taking it out. Price fell down through the mid but could not go range extension down. Instead buyers heaved price to a range extension up and out of the Friday range. This triggered a rally that checked back to the scene of the omicron news, paused then continued higher, trading up beyond last Tuesday’s high as we chopped along the high into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 16,402.25. From here buyers continue higher, taking out overnight high 16,441. Look for sellers up at 16,459 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 16,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 16,238.50 setting up a move down to 16,200.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ nearly erases omicron losses // here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second-to-last day in November up a quick +180 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher Sunday evening and then balanced for several hours, balancing along the upper quadrant of Friday’s range. As we approach cash open price is hovering along the overnight high.

On the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we saw an early Monday rally to record highs faded aggressively the rest of the day. Then continuation selling Tuesday. Relief rally Wednesday (into Thanksgiving). Covid-variant news hits tape very early Friday morning and price trended lower into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend down. The day began with a gap down into the Wednesday midpoint. After a test higher failed to close the overnight gap sellers stepped in and began driving lower, effectively taking out the weekly lows by about 11am. Then there was a brief bounce before sellers continued pressing the tape lower, effectively closing us on the lows during the shortened holiday session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, tagging the omicron gap up at 16,358.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers stall out around 16,300 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 16,100 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measures moves:

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Economic data rattles the early tape // here is Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day before Thanksgiving down about -115 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the Tuesday midpoint until 8:30am when a slew of economic data hit the tape. GDP came out in line with expectations. Durable goods order slightly below the low end of expectations. Jobless claims better-than-expected. As we approach cash openprice is hovering in the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have new home sales and consumer sentiment at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am. Then the FOMC minutes are due out at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down below range. After a brief test lower buyers drove into the gap and closed it. Sellers rejected a move back into Monday range shortly thereafter setting up a selloff that lasted through to mid afternoon. Buyers stepped in ahead of last week’s low, down in the lower quadrant of Monday’s range and we ramped higher for the rest of the session, eventually crossing the mid and closing above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 16,268.75. Buyers continue higher, taking out overnight high 16,356. Look for sellers up at 16,371.50. Then look for the third reaction to the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through Tuesday low 16,118. Look for buyers down at 16,100. Then look for the third reaction to the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 16,041.75. Then look for the third reaction to the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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