Don’t Be Chicken

I don’t fancy myself a voodoo man but one phenomenon earns my faith. You will never catch my chicken eatin’ ass waffling out of a working long ahead of a new month. Especially if said month starts on a Monday.

Nor would I hedge into this weekend.  Hell I’d add risk if anything.  They call that a Texas hedge.

Fridays are for showing us we are mortal. Sundays are for showing her you love her, and Mondays are for mutual funds to allocate money. It’s that simple, you hear me?

See you Sunday, with some context. PS – then I’ll see you Monday with a belly full of bravado and malt liquor.

There is nothing better than a Friday month end. The week/month alignment pleases me. It is like being a tier one breakfast chef. Not some line chef working a greasy spoon but at home. If you have breakfast game, then you know how to make the spinach, eggs, Morningstar patties, and toast all simultaneously complete. Watch the panties drop.

I am in high spirits today. So high in fact I have completed all trading. My book is sufficiently long and the Nasdaq has been my playground for five fucking days.

Now I need you to wake up. There is no need to toil endlessly inside the marketplace. Not only is it a recipe for bagged eyes, it will lose you money. I’ve never been more sure of anything in my life.

Wait for your conditions then grind like you existence is on the line, it is, and reap the benefits.

I only need to trade a few weeks per year, when Exodus Market Super Intelligence deems it so. I’m convinced. 88% winship this year, fuck me running. Every time we run a cycle I try convincing Fly to stop offering the software to the masses. He cordially tells me to, “fuck off” and “do more demos”.

As a steward of Exodus I must lead a horse to water, but I couldn’t care less if he drinks.

Today marks the fifth statistically normal session of globex trade in the Nasdaq. The action was balanced overnight until we saw buying pressure pick up at the 8:30am mark. As we head into cash open price is pushing above yesterday’s high and up into the contextual pole—a market profile feature.

The economic calendar is quiet to end the week. The University of Michigan will provide us a final read of Confidence for July at 10am and Baker Hughes will tell us how many rigs they counted at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend day up. This day-type has tons of directional conviction but not as much as a full-on trend day. It started with a gap down and sellers proceeded to take out Wednesday’s low before finding responsive buyers at value area high from 7/27. Buyers became initiative late in the morning and continued to take risk throughout the session.

Intermediate term we’ve bounced off the check-back to the breakout. Their challenge is sustaining this strength and not succumbing to a push back below the breakout area around 4500. Keep an eye on Nasdaq transports too because they’re back at range high—a place where I expect sellers to defend. Finally bear in mind that Monday is a new month. New months that start on Monday are statistically bullish.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for early action to give way to quiet summer trade. I will look for buyers to press the pole climb up to target 4631.75 before 2-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 deals with the shelf built at 4588. If sellers push down through it, look for a move to take out overnight low 4583.25 and a test of the value area high at 4570.

Hypo 3 is a full on barn burner to recapture the Apple gap down (7/21) up to 4668.25.

Levels:

I’ve turned over a new leaf. What a wonderful expression, it’s physical, and it reminds me of tender plant growth and the promise it brings.

You don’t need to work every day. Let’s start with that. There are good people (and robots!) who are better suited for toiling away endlessly on your behalf. This is so, freaking, hard for people to accept. It is very American to want to work every day except Sunday (big ups to baby Jesus). I am positive trading every single day is a prescription for losses.

Make hay on sunny days. Don’t toil for peanuts or worse in the futures arena.

There are weeks when you should be working a long. This week, all five days, is one of those weeks. I work my levels and boy do they work. It isn’t like this when I operate outside the hybrid oversold cycle.

You backsliding scoundrels see this algo slay the market all year but refuse to pony up and own it. I’m dead, leave me alone to wallow in my disturbing winsums.

Long live Exodus

Nasdaq futures are lower heading into Thursday. The overnight session featured balanced price action with all trade occurring inside the range set yesterday. The overnight action reads normal, and heading into cash open we are seeing selling pressure.

At 8:30am we had an economic data dump which included 2^ndquarter annualized GDP stats, Personal Consumption figures, and Initial/Continuing jobless claims. The GDP data was lower than expected and showed a bit of inflation. Personal Consumption is on the rise, and jobless claims were mixed. The initial reaction to the news was selling.

Yesterday the market printed a normal variation up day while we heard the latest rate decision from the FOMC. Buyers managed to press nearly halfway up last Friday’s liquidation range before stalling out. The session print has a somewhat blunt looking high (poor high) and a relatively clean looking low (such taper!).

Intermediate term location shows price coming back to the scene of the original breakout—an action referred to as a check back by traders. The idea behind the check back is to test the conviction of the breakout by seeing if a revisit to the prices entices buyers to buck up and bid.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through the overnight low 4556.50. Look for buyers to defend around the 4550 region and two-way trade to ensue with a slight upward bias.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4450 setting up a test down to 4534.25. If buyers no show here then we continue pushing lower to test our recent value low area 4516 – 4505.25.

Hypo 3 buyers push up through overnight high 4577.75 setting up a run to 4600.

Levels:

Forget about Twitter being my 4^th earnings bomb after Mike Kors, Solar Winds, and True Car.  You are dealing with a certified stock killer on an epic streak.  However Twitter is different.

This is a company built around an idea misunderstood by the mass market.  There’s a place for tweeting and there always will be.  I am not sure how it becomes a major player yet I know it will.  Is that wishful thinking?

Today’s drop is a blessing.  My position was moderately sized going into earnings and is back to being under water.  Now I have an opportunity to accumulate significantly more.  And I shall.  Slowly.

The rest of my book fared well.  I am still working my way out of a decent sized solar position, DOC and NRG have stabilized and make up a big part of my book, SCCO is making a comeback alongside copper, and I have a fist full of QLDs.

The market is creating some big opportunity here by casting super companies like Twitter into the abyss.  Are you prepared to buck up?

I do one thing well in these markets and that’s trade Nasdaqs. They are my firstborn. I have thousands hours watching them and studying them.

I come here, about daily, and pen how I go about my business.

Working to this end is a passion of mine and something I will never grow tired of. Conversely, I have grown tired of the individual stock. There are too many variables. Executives are weak and often more occupied with their promiscuity then their stupid jobs. I would rather my fate be the result of my own planning and execution.

I need a place to park this hard earned wealth. For a long time I thought it could be positioned in 8-15 stocks to diversify. It turns out I kill every stock I buy. So I will now prescribe to baskets built by others, namely Le Doctor aka Plutonium Petey.

This is a win-win. I have the benefit of Space Alien Magician booklets and I can turn all my attention to what I do best—trading Nasdaqs.

Most of you will never know the sort of temperance one develops going from weeks without pay to making 9k in a few hours.  It takes character.  I like it.

Nasdaq futures are a touch higher as we head into Wednesday’s trade. The action overnight was balanced with a slight upward bias. Price managed to go above yesterday’s high and into the lower quadrant of last Friday’s range before sellers showed up. Range and volume were normal on the session.

The big economic event today is the 2pm FOMC rate decision. No one expects them to raise the benchmark short-term interest rate for the first time since 2006. We had MBA Mortgage Apps data at 7am and selling has come into the tape since. We also have Pending Home Sales at 10am and oil/gas inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend day after starting the session under selling pressure. Price briefly took out Monday’s low before finding a strong responsive bid.   The interesting trait left behind is a low VPOC—down at 4510. It means value might be lower than where price is currently trading.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is sellers push into the overnight inventory to close the gap down to 4556.75 and continue to target the overnight low 4548.50. Look for responsive buyers at 4544 then again at 4534. Then two-way trade as we wait for the afternoon FOMC minutes.

Hypo 2 buyers push up and sustain trade above Friday’s close 4563.75 setting up a run to target the overnight high 4572.75. The profile overhead is thin meaning we could see price rally well if this occurs. Look for sellers around the 4600 mark.

Hypo 3 tight trading between 4570 and 4550 until we see the FOMC minutes.

Levels:

You didn’t have to do anything fancy today, nothing elaborate, you just had to wake up, buy the morning weakness and go about your merry way.

It is well over 2000 degrees today in Detroit offering my person zero reprieve.

We formed this nice little rounded bottom right on the 4500 century mark. So clean.

Days like this make up for weeks of being rick rolled. Perseverance lads.

My day was simple and I have no desire for more positions. I went out and bought more QLD just as I prescribed yesterday.

If you aren’t already taking advantage of month-end free trials of Exodus do it now you goof—email me [email protected] and I will hook it up.

I intend to take back what’s rightfully mine one Exodus hybrid oversold signal at a time. Ride or die.

Nasdaq futures are gap up heading into Tuesday after a globex session featuring elevated range on normal volume. Price managed to push up into last Friday’s range slightly and consolidate in the low-end of last week’s range.

Coming up on the economic docket we have Case-Shiller Composite 20 at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and Consumer Confidence at 10am. Investors are also likely looking forward to tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision tomorrow afternoon.

Yesterday we started the week gap down and soon after the open we found responsive buyers. Price managed to “check back” to the scene of last week’s breakout before finding the buyers who pushed but struggled to reclaim last Friday’s range. We spent the rest of the session slow grinding lower to ultimately go neutral.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap down to 4523. From there I will look for sellers to continue lower to take out the overnight low 4515 and target the 4500 century mark. Look for buyers to defend here.

Hypo 2 sellers struggle to close the overnight gap and we push up above the overnight high 4549.25 . Look for some churn around 4553 before continuing higher to close last Friday’s gap up at 4563.75.

Hypo 3 is sellers push down through 4500 to close the open gap from 7/13 down at 4487.50.

Levels: