Chopping wood

Fellas I had to step away from the markets last week and it looks like I won’t be on my desk much this upcoming week either. A deal I have been putting together since November finally went through. I wasn’t even sure if it would but baby it did.

I bought a quarter of a block down in the city. Nearly an acre. Enough space to build eight multi-family homes.

Housing, as we know, is in short supply.

Anyhow I couldn’t care less if there are enough houses for the consumer, man. I have Mothership, my faithful steed. This land will be developed, at first rapidly to cut down on some of the maintenance, and then slowly.

Perhaps one day I will build a few homes, but not homes as the typical hamburger eating american envisions.  The city is no place for an offensively middle class 3,500 square foot joke house with cheap cladding. They’ll be gritty and utilitarian shelters. Made of steel and cement. Fully equipped to survive the roving bandits.

But for now I am working the land. Establishing the perimeter. I am not being aggressive. Just dominant.

Folks aren’t used to seeing the immigrant hustle up close. Usually we’re relegated to distant fields where we can rage work in peace. I am rage working on a busy corner in the city and it already has people shook.

So I need to make it pretty ASAP because I know they’re gonna send bandits for me eventually and I need to make sure the power of my words is backed by a beautiful show of infrastructural force.

Trade’em well lads. What I love about the stock market is it was here long before us and will be here long after we’re gone. Investing and trading are a few of the last true bastions of lassie fare capitalism. We ought to be more grateful to the French. And the Dutch.

As for the Italians those fuckers are ruthless. Keep a wide space between you and them. If you see some leaned out farmer looking dude with a pony tail all olive skineed and bearded, working the land…say hello or run because that’s humble Raul and he’s thinking of a dozen ways to make to kill you.

Raul Santos, June 13th 2021

Here is 342nd edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy now yes.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 06/14/21 – 06/18/21

Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.35, medium bull*.  More sideways chop until Wednesday afternoon. Then look for the third reaction to the FOMC announcement/presser to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

*Index Model signaled extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Steady rally in the NASDAQ all week while the other indices marked time. The Dow was bearish divergent.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech strong and discretionary strong. Rallying in the right places.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed bullish for a second week and for a second week not really great industry groups leading the way.

Volume delta remains pinned negative (broken I think) and median return was about +50 basis points.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Slow tape

Despite being a slow tape the opening bells are still setting up nicely. I had to step back from the market last week because I’ve just been too dang good heckin’ busy. It looks like I will not be on my desk much next week either. Which is fine. The market will be here when I get back.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

More sideways chop until Wednesday afternoon. Then look for the third reaction to the FOMC announcement/presser to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Marking time

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports same as last week. Holding range near highs.

The longer we sit in this time-based correction the more bullish it becomes.

See below:

Semiconductors balanced along the highs also. There is nothing bearish about this for now. Time-based corrections are very healthy.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias for a third consecutive week after being neutral for the two weeks prior after being e[RCS] bullish five weeks back and RCS bearish six weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster fifteen weeks ago.

e[RCS] calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“If I do a good job, people won’t care if I am green or have three heads.” Harvey Milk

Trade simple, trade well

Comments »

Sort of already used up my best thoughts on this earlier entry. Just keep in mind that June is a month where humble RAUL works harder than you. Toils. Toils and takes risk. Aerodynamic. Thin. Lean. Peak male performance. Cock as hard as pig iron. Pony tail out. No cankles.

Hustling.

Maybe less here and more down in the hood we don’t know I just take it one day at a time.

Okay for now here is this week’s research.

Raul Santos, June 6th 2021

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 06/07/21 – 06/11/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.58, medium bull*.  Expect markets to continue holding balance along the highs. Moments of volatility to the upside or downside are likely to fade back to the mean by week’s end.

*Index Model signaled extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Closed Monday for Memorial Day. Gap up into the week is faded. Choppy through Wednesday then some selling pressure Thursday. Strong Friday, sort of drifting back up to weekly highs after the nonfarm payroll data.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech strong, flanked by other sector groups. Energy in its own world.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed bullish but were mostly oil and REIT related. Negative side not really featuring any key industry groups.

Volume delta remains pinned negative (broken I think) and median return was about +75 basis points.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Summer trading

It can be easy to slip into old bad habits during a slow summer tape. Plan every single trade from entry to exit to stop and keep an eye on risk. Stick to the key levels, the key windows of trading activity and be okay with stepping back from trading if you need to refresh the mind.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Expect markets to continue holding balance along the highs. Moments of volatility to the upside or downside are likely to fade back to the mean by week’s end.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Balance along the highs can set up another leg up

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports holding range like this along the highs is not bearish. Balance and innocent until we make a strong break lower.

Until then we expect balance. The longer we sit in this time-based correction the more bullish it becomes.

See below:

Semiconductors are also balanced. NVIDIA earnings were fantastic and the stock was well received after the report.  There is a clear balance/range here but also in the last two sessions we have set up and pivoted off the bear’s Fibonacci level. Buyers likely to attempt a new leg up but for now the call is balance.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias for a second consecutive week after being neutral for the two weeks prior after being e[RCS] bullish four weeks back and RCS bearish five weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster fourteen weeks ago.

e[RCS] calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“All cruelty springs from weakness.” Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Trade simple, stay kind

Comments »

Minimal noise. Raw data gets partitioned and analyzed. Factor in some calendar events.  And a ruthless commitment to brevity. That is what goes into the Executive Summary every Sunday. Last week’s was on point, see below:

Why do I do it? I do it for myself. Owning the research that backs every single decision I make in the speculative markets allows me to avoid unbridled pikerisms like foisting blame onto some billionaire if I blow up my account positioning into shit coin degeneracy.

I need to stay focused. It’s a real sick society. In the age of anxiety I intend to be a beacon on the path to simplicity and pleasure.

Long time readers of the humble Raul blog [hRb] know I’ve been calling for the ’20s to be a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living human has ever seen. An expansion fueled by the persuit of automation and artificial intelligence. An expansion built on semiconductors and bravery. Grotesque displays of wealth. Traps. Other beacons to different kinds of life…and pleasure? Maybe.

I come from a life of privilege. I’ve had the privilege of being inside the grips of a parochial protestant education as a child, to a collegiate life surrounded by friends with private jets, hell their own airports, yachts — all the trimmings of perceived happiness/pleasure. And daddy-o these have been (for the most part) some of the most miserable folks.

They have the same problems.

Then there are festival freaks. Bless them. Escaping reality en masse and listening to good music. An okay path to nirvana. The duration is short. Not as short as nitros oxide…

…disassociatives, an escape from the human condition. Why do that? Come back with some non-human perspective maybe. We don’t know. Everyone has their kink.

And that’s okay. My kink is extracting as many fiat american dollars from the global financial complex as possible. We’ll do what it takes. Gain citizenship to other countries. Hustle the big waves of New York’s opening bell. Invest in strong leaders.

Said fiat will then be converted into real assets. This is becoming a challenge now too. Those dang Chinese have taken to speculating on physical goods at a ravenous clip. Fuck. This is fine. Said fiat will then be converted into steel and cement and fucking lumber to build massive food operations. Said food will be abundant and provide minerals and vitamins otherwise depleted in the food chain. Said food will be distributed to my people and others for exchange with the intention of converting the food into digital currencies.

And so goes the circle of life. No one’s master. No one’s slave. Except maybe the plants.

It all starts with solid Sunday research. That said. Stick around a bit. A fresh report will be out shortly.

Raul Santos, June 6th 2021

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second day of the final month of Q2 up about +20 after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower half of Monday’s range. As we approach cash open price is hovering below the Monday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have the Fed’s beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up inside range. After a brief two-way auction sellers stepped in and drove the overnight gap fill then continued lower, briefly probing into last Monday’s conviction buying range before discovering a bid. Responsive buyers were found ahead of that Monday’s midpoint and we spent the rest of the session slowly chopping our way back tot he daily mid. Then late in the session sellers defended the mid and we faded into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to close the overnight gap down to 13,649.25 setting up a move down through overnight low 13,616.75. Look for buyers at 13,600 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go up through overnight high 13,673.50 and tag 13,700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers make a run to 13,800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures were balanced overnight and are heading into the final month of the second quarter gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. As we approach cash open in this holiday shortened week price is hovering near last week’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing index and construction spending at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we saw a strong rally Monday then a slow and steady upward drift for the rest of the week. Russell 2000 outperformed suggesting risk tolerance remains elevated.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap up in range and after an open-two-way auction price sort of chopped the mid for an hour and a half before rallying to a new qweekly high. Price held the highs for about an hour before falling back down through the mid. Then, sellers held the mid and pushed into a late-day neutral print, closing on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the Friday gap down at 13,693 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go up to 13,800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 13,833 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Good morning and cheers to the beginning of summer. It amuses me how government and church bogart dates when pagans would pay homage to the old gods in the most hedonistic ways and repackage them as “holidays”. The real reason we celebrate right now is the heckin’ north coming back to life. Trees are re-leafing themselves. Corns poking up. Women are in heat.

It is right around this flamboyant time when I was born. On my due date. At 6am. Ready to live.

I’ve almost always been in a good mood. My whole life. Even now, when my situation has gone a bit mundane, being in the grips of too much work, I find all sorts of little opportunities to savor nature.

This morning, for instance, I awoke at 3am and like a moth to a light bulb made my way over to the loud thumping techno hall. Grabbed a coffee on the way and disco danced for a few hours before returning here to Mothership and preparing this week’s research. I worked most of yesterday and have more toiling ahead of me today, yet time was found for a bit of recreation — wiggled my bones and vibrated the old nervous system.

I suppose I’ll take a nap now. Then an elaborate breakfast before heading back to the coal mine.

Fine for now.

Raul Santos, May 31st 2021

Here is the 340th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 05/31/21 – 06/04/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.40, medium bull*.  Choppy sideways drift. Then watch for Powell speak and non-farm payroll data early Friday to provide direction into the weekend.

U.S. markets are closed Monday in observation of Memorial Day.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses (e[RCS]) bullish bias triggered. See Section VI

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Strong rally Monday then a slow and steady upward drift for the rest of the week. Russell 2000 outperformed suggesting risk tolerance remains elevated.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

About as quality as rotations can be for bulls. Tech strong, energy muted, utilities soft.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed bullish. A few semiconductors in the ledger which is a positive.

Volume delta remains pinned negative and median return was about +125 basis points.

Money flows are slightly bullish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Context

We are heading into the final month of the second quarter. The moon is waning. IndexModel is calling for a calm drift. Transports and semiconductors show balance (see Section IV). No major earnings due out. Economic calendar light. Stocklabs neutral. COVID fear is lessening.

Summer weather hitting the north.

All this adds up to form a contextual vibe of calm markets. Drift. This is of course only the case if we don’t encounter any unexpected meaningful news.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy sideways drift. Then watch for Powell speak and non-farm payroll data early Friday to provide direction into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Watching this balance play out

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are in this mini balance amid a larger discovery up phase. Neutral/bullish until something changes.

See below:

Semiconductors are balanced. Nvidia earnings sent the key PHLX component to a new record high. We can keep an eye on how the new high is received and deduce it to PHLX behavior, which is a key driver of overall market behavior. Balanced for now.

See below:

V. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold

On Wednesday, May 12th Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 6- and 12-month algorithms. These bullish cycles run through end-of-day May 26th. Here is the final performance of each major indexr:

VI. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is back to extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias after being neutral for two weeks consecutive week after being e[RCS] bullish three weeks back and RCS bearish four weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster thirteen weeks ago.

e[RCS] calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“If you truly love nature, you will find beauty everywhere.” Vincent van Gogh

Trade simple, trade beautifully

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are set to gap up into the week with prices trading up above last Friday’s midpoint and over +100 from last week’s close. Price was balanced overnight until about 3:30am New York when it began to probe beyond the mini balance. Price has been on a steady campaign higher since then and as we approach cash open price is hovering near the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy through Tuesday then there was some late Tuesday selling. Pro gaps down across the board Wednesday that were bid into resulting in an all-day rally. Rally carried into Thursday. Then we essentially marked time Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up slightly above Thursday range. Sellers resolved the gap with an open-drive-down, driving down into the gap fill rapidly and then finding a responsive bid there. Said bidders could not take out the opening swing high. Instead sellers reasserted themselves and pushed an early range extension down. The selling continued until about noon, rotating price down to Thursday’s midpoint where we then bounced and marked time for the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, probing above Friday high 13,570 and tagging 13,600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 13,410.50. Look for buyers ahead of 13,410 and for two way trade ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 13,300 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

V0lume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

It’s feast and famine at the House of Raul (HoR). Has been since I left the mediocre existence of a corporate pleb earning 70,000 fiat american per annum. Now I speculate and toil. Speculate and toil. Toil and toil and speculate waiting for my number to be called.

My number has not been called in weeks resulting in risk management protocol going into place. I have reduced my trading size to one third normal position size until thing settle a bit.

Meanwhile I continue to live in a van between the toiling, eating tins of fish meat.

IndexModel is neutral into month-end. On the note of IndexModel, I’d like to offer props to whomever grabbed that twitter handle when I set it free. Good form.

I’ll be doing today and tomorrow what I always do when my hand goes cold. I clean. Clean and organize and clean some more. Scrub the walls and purge the garage. Do these things and think and prepare for the next big speculation.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, May 23rd 2021

And now the 339th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 05/24/21 – 05/28/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.25, medium bull.  Choppy price action into month-end. Watch for a reaction to NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after-the-bell to put direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy through Tuesday then some late Tuesday selling. Pro gaps down Wednesday that were bid into resulting in an all-day rally. Rally carried into Thursday. Marked time Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Mixed bag. Slight risk aversion with Staples and Utilities performing well. But Tech diverged from broad weakness elsewhere.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed heavily to the positive side of the ledger.

Volume delta remains pinned negative and median return was about +250 basis points.

Money flows are bullish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

K.I.S.S.

Keep your focus on consistently executing the signals generated by the Stocklabs mother algo. Do only this well and it will keep you on a path of consistent profitability. Keep it simple.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy price action into month-end. Watch for a reaction to NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after-the-bell to put direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Balance at the highs is not bearish

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are maybe in balance. Maybe still discovering higher prices.

See below:

Semiconductors are balanced. Nvidia earnings Wednesday after-the-bell could shake this index loose.

See below:

V. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold

On Wednesday, May 12th Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 6- and 12-month algorithms. These bullish cycles run through end-of-day May 26th. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VI. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a second consecutive week after being e(RCS) bullish two weeks back and RCS bearish three weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster twelve weeks ago.

Neutral means no bias.

Here is the current spread:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more of it I seem to have.” Coleman Cox

Trade simple, put work into every trade

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second-to-last Friday in May with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along and often exceeding the Thursday high. As we approach cash open price is overnight a touch above Thursday high.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up beyond the prior day range and drive higher, driving up clean thru to a new seven day high before chopping a bit inside the 05/10 conviction selling range. We ended the session flagging along the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 13,600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 13,638.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers take out overnight low 13,479.25 on their way to tagging 13,400.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday up a quick +80 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s range until about 8:30am when jobless claims data came out better than expected and sent price higher. As we approach cash open price is hovering near the Tuesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down to a new weekly long and then a drive higher at the open. Price drove higher, then chopped back to the mid before beginning a steady campaign higher. The buying ultimately closed the overnight gap before checking back to the mid around the release of the 2pm FOMC minutes. Buyers defended the mid and price campaigned higher into the close, closing in the lower quad of Tuesday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher to 13,333 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 13,372.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 13,150 setting up a tag of 13,100 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »