HAVING A GREAT TIME OVER HERE

I have no use for today’s price action whatsoever. We’ve got a 20 something point range in the $SPX…seems pretty straight forward.

I bought some $CANV today to add to my weed stock portfolio allocation. I also bought $XONE calls for a quick pop.

If I can find the days low in oil, I hope to buy down there.

$SFUN also on my radar here, but I am still in dire need of managing my April expiry’s.

OA

Interesting article on Bloomberg today about the $1 Trillion Dollar short position in the market.

Amid its biggest about-face in nine decades, a funny thing has happened in the U.S. stock market, where rather than loosen their grip bears have grown ever-more impassioned. They’ve sent short interest to an eight-year high and above $1 trillion, by one analyst’s math. Position reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show mutual fund managers are more skeptical now than any time since at least 2010.

In short, disbelief is running rampant after $2 trillion was restored to share values in six months. A chorus of Wall Street prognosticators says that’s a big reason the rally can keep going.

Many of my blogs over the last two years were based upon the high degree of correlation to most asset classes in recent years against price action in the late 90’s.

I’ve gotten this question multiple times this month, so it deserves me repeating my take on it…”Why are stocks moving higher despite the carry trade weakness.”

Take a look at the following charts:

Late 1995-1998 stocks followed the USD/JPY in lock step for a three year stretch before the correlation broke. The market correction in fall of 1998 busted this correlation, and the divergence really took off in 1999-2000. Stocks went on their final leg higher despite weakness in the USD/JPY. That final run lasted two years.

Late 2012-current stocks followed that same correlation. During this most recent market correction, the two instruments are starting to diverge. Could be noise, but the historical correlation is worth noting.

Hard to see this move coming, but to me this still fits the pain trade theory. Most discussions out there are of the apocalyptic nature, which means we’re most likely not done yet.

Overall participant sentiment was a tough read yesterday, as discussed in After Hours with Option Addict. Bears were growling, bulls were buying, people were reducing risk, and it seemed that yesterday wasn’t a day I could really generalize and say “Most traders did this today, therefore, here’s what happens tomorrow.” Oil and biotech surely help here, and that rotational call into biotech is paying off pretty well.

I’m focused on rolling or booking April expiry positions ASAP. That’s my only priority here. So many set-ups to trade, but I need to get a few things adjusted first before I start looking for new buys….even though I have several.

Hate to say it, but I am enamored with china internet here, as well as beaten up cyber security. I also have a few cheap oils on my radar.

OA

There was an uptick in overall correlation today as the gap down and hold has everyone on edge. I suppose at this point one must assume that any negative reaction to Fed up here and the door to exit the building will get pretty small.

Today sucks for me on every level. $FSLR shit the bed, I got stocks going nowhere and the theta burn is on the uptick. We’ve got no market speed yet, but that could change this week. Days like today are the worst when holding options.

I was thrilled to see risk rotation this week, but anytime I see most stocks following the same intraday patterns, it puts me on edge.

While I sit here watching my bottom line slowly diminish on the day, I sincerely hope I am losing less than you.

Love $FEYE, $YELP and $SINA around here.

OA

This stock has a pretty impressive track record over these events. Look it up.

Analyst meeting kicks off at 8:30 am ET tomorrow, so keep an eye out.

http://investor.firstsolar.com/

Disclaimer: long, lol.