iBankCoin
The first hit is always on the house.
Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,843 Blog Posts

KNOW YOUR OPPONENT

Aside from myself, a few well respected traders/technicians came out last week to discuss the price action in Gold.

To summarize, those opinions were similar to mine stating that the only folks buying last week were of the retail variety. When you sense this crowd, or can see their footprints in the market…prepare to take their money.

I’ve stated this about the overall market, and the same can be applied to any instrument….when the pain trade becomes ‘lower’ it is because the market has left people stranded above. We discussed this at length last year, referencing the island of longs in both Gold and Bonds around this time last year. Today, prices gapped beneath all prices printed last week. In other words, late longs are now trapped – as I suggested in the gruesome comment exchanges last week.

As discussed in After Hours with Option Addict last week, I used the enthusiasm of Gold bulls to also initiate a LT position in $TBT and a few trades in a few banks. The timing of last week I felt was significant – and was why I built these positions leading into last week.

I’m still a little underwater in my $DGLD, but that happens when you build a position into a breakout or breakdown. I like my chances here.

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37 comments

  1. Tonka

    As of right now, my $SMH calls are up more than my $GLD puts are down.

    Oddly enough I don’t feel like screaming at someone.

    What am I doing wrong?

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  2. CF4

    OA does it again.

    Crickets..

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  3. C. Montgomery Burns
    C. Montgomery Burns

    I look forward to your speech this year at The Player Hater’s Ball.

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  4. doubleplus

    And thus, following today’s action, Phil returned to his regular habit of throwing mad shade on the Stocktwits boards.

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  5. pb

    Looking at the GC futures, a couple downside gaps are now filled. An upside gap remains. Bulls like to buck people off their backs. This time is not different.

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  6. Phil Grossman

    Right on que, the OA “dipshit crew” comes out because DGLD experience a weak one day dead cat bounce in now underwater by only 7% in two weeks. Further, they know very well I cashed in SLV calls on Friday per Thursday’s post for all to see.

    Here’s another gift for you tools pertaining to GLD. Look at that…perfect tag and hammer today. Whoops! Crickets indeed.

    http://schrts.co/MskGzj

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    • cascadia

      You make trading decisions based on a 13EMA? Good luck with that.

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      • Phil Grossman

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

        Magic! LOL

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        • cascadia

          What am I supposed to see here? I think your link is broken, It’s a default $DJIA chart.

          My point is that a 13EMA is an arbitrary choice. Pick a prime number EMA and I’m sure you can make a chart fit a narrative. Look at a chart of $GLD, what do you tell yourself on reversals that don’t touch the 13EMA (of which there are plenty)?

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          • Phil Grossman

            You are clueless if you think the 13 ema is useless. Do some backtesting on stocks that are in bullish trends, champ.

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        • tonka

          Yesterday was a perfect tag of the 11 EMA.

          Today the 8 EMA provided perfect resistance.

          Last week support was provided by the 3 EMA.

          I could go on and on.

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    • ThomasJefferson

      (A.) I’m above break even on $DGLD.
      (B.) If there are crickets, it’s because we tend not to filibuster on a single position 10-12 times daily in this comments section as both a matter of logic and civility. i know you’re new here, so that might be confusing.
      (C.) After you close a position, to still be cheerleading it is an awful lot like the Varsity QB still talking about homecoming game at his 20 year reunion. No one’s interested after you sell. How about your next position? Generally we post buys, sells, or tickers you are debating initiating.
      (D.) @cascadia – love the Roenik NHL ’96 avatar!

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      • Phil Grossman

        Try again, champ. The original “crickets” comment here was directed at me as if I was silent because DGLD had a one day weak dead cat bounce! Funny shit 🙂

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        • ThomasJefferson

          We were hoping you were silent because you exited the position, champ.

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      • cascadia

        😉

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  7. no_logic

    $HUBS coming back into balance here…..those Oct calls looking tasty

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  8. gatorsun

    somethings brewing XIV booked em….VXX slam down hard,,,, we topping out? maybe

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  9. gatorsun

    XIV,,,Fly is late to the party on this one,,,gotta buy it in hate mode,,,not in the love mode

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    • tonka

      I say a prayer every night that tomorrow brings a vol shock with an 80% down day on XIV.

      That being said, 10% contango is a big tail wind in the term structure right now. Short of a vol shock it’ll continue drifting higher.

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      • Goober

        Yeah I think the 30 day SMA of the VIX can rise 4% per month for the next three months and XIV can still make money due to the contango, as long as not too much of a vix move in a single day.

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  10. Z

    “I am long gold” is 4 words. When someone types 4,000 words instead and argues their position in many different ways on many different days it goes to the idea that the person is probably not a good trader because most verbose people are horrible traders (Doug Kass is one quick example). Or – the person is more or less a Stocktwits bloghead who is addicted to posting about the same idea again and again. Most of those people are also not good traders as they get off more on arguing with people to the point of exhaustion rather than looking for and doing the next good trade.

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  11. BadDuck

    $DDS still looks good here, rolling Sep into Oct.

    Bought some $SN calls for October. 4 and 5

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  12. Heckler

    Wulp I just got completely fucked on my NM position. I lost all my shares this morning at 1.40 at 9:32am. What the fuck? Had a 1.47 stop and somehow just got steamrolled out of a pretty fucking big winner. I call shenanigans. Someone took my shares for a damn good deal

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    • no_logic

      wow – just WOW. I don’t even understand how something like that happens, but I see that trade blip on the chart…sorry man

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      • Tonka

        Sucks, but happens all the times on low volume gaps. A stop market order guarantees execution, not price. Moving through 1.47 would trigger a market order that executes at wherever the market happens to be. You could use a stop limit order that would enter a limit order at 1.47 once the stop trades at that level. But those guarantee price, not execution. You can guarantee price, or execution, not both.

        That’s why I don’t put hard stops in place. Requires more discipline, but I refuse to let a bot sniff me out.

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        • Heckler

          Yeah I figured it out as I was thinking about it today. There were essentially no trades today between my stop of 1.47 and 1.40.

          So my stop got triggered and the best price that could be found to sell was 1.4. Oh well and fuck that. Live and learn.

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  13. dlrago8

    OA, great recorded session. Fits me to a T. Have a loser sell when it gets to break even. Have a winner sell to take the small gain. Hoping I learned patience and tests are normal and not to be so quick on the trigger. Thanks again!!

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  14. dlrago8

    TomJeff – going to give TVIX another shot down here – can we make it thru Sept unscathed?

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    • ThomasJefferson

      I actually think there are a ton of amazing setups right now. Shocking how many great looking setups given the indices are extended. I’m pushing long.
      Trying to catch a couple of bids before we close up shop for the day.

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      • no_logic

        I’m pushing long as well – booking some today ($JD, $GME) that are ripping and using proceeds and then some to pick up a few that look like they are re-testing after the breakout. Sneaked in a few $BLCM calls into the close too that I’ve been eyeing (happy that one faded a bit into the afternoon). $HUBS is setting up nicely. Figuring out whether to double down on $INFO here too. No shortage of solid ideas thanks to OA.

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  15. mac1326

    OA-Great call on OCLR

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  16. BoilMeImIrish

    Still following you from the sidelines Jeff, thanks for all you do!

    Followed this trade too, just heard about it late. Glad I did–thanks again.

    Do you have a target in mind? I like $50.

    Cheers!

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  17. heisenberg

    Jeff, thoughts on GOOGL here?

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  18. Goober

    Sorry to hear Heckler about that NM. Good that you shared that. I will have to watch out for it. NM March $2.50’s are probably 10 cents. On that retracement we had over the summer I was getting December $2.50’s for as little as $0.03 with six months or more of time left.

    I picked up FTK $5.00’s for $0.76 right at the open this Monday. I’m guessing strong day tomorrow then sell off Friday. Usual expiry stuff. Thinking IJR breaks out tomorrow then retest Friday. Likely to buy Oct 69’s on IJR on the retest.

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  19. mac1326

    Not seeing after hours posting for today?

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  20. Heckler

    Those who like China, check out SORL. This stock crushed the hopes of so many falling from 9.5 to 3.8. Massive wedge into support. The angle is a little off but I think this has a good chance of running soon. Chinese auto / car theme, a la ATHM.

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