There was an uptick in overall correlation today as the gap down and hold has everyone on edge. I suppose at this point one must assume that any negative reaction to Fed up here and the door to exit the building will get pretty small.
Today sucks for me on every level. $FSLR shit the bed, I got stocks going nowhere and the theta burn is on the uptick. We’ve got no market speed yet, but that could change this week. Days like today are the worst when holding options.
I was thrilled to see risk rotation this week, but anytime I see most stocks following the same intraday patterns, it puts me on edge.
While I sit here watching my bottom line slowly diminish on the day, I sincerely hope I am losing less than you.
Love $FEYE, $YELP and $SINA around here.
OA
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theres no way you’re losing less than my 3 figure account.
Jeff What are your thoughts of SUNE at this level??
$VSLR
Exactly. Sune is a sunk ship. Let the day traders mess with it
http://ibankcoin.com/hattery/consolidation-rating/
Here’s a little piece going into details about how I go about quantifying volatility contraction.
Today is that dreaded day where the options that were hanging on by a thread seem to have stopped hanging on by a thread. I’d love to see $W pick up the pace downward, as my other shitty puts in $AMLP don’t seem to want to go any lower at this point.
And I am on the verge of taking a starter in $VSLR for the LT account. I would normally want about $2.45 or so, but on the 30 min I like the look of it back over $2.50 actually. It’s probably a bit silly to be scrubbing a 30 min chart for a long term hold, but trying to stay sharp on entries.
VSLR is going ch 11
Vivint? How do you figure?
the giddy meter did get a tad high yesterday.
Sold my TLT and my SPXS this morning so I’m fully exposed to downside from here. Holding XBI, REGN, CYH, (OS), TBT (OS), AERI.
Bailed on FIT leveraged position
Thinking about $CMG right here, right now.
Trimmed down equities positions a ton. Not a good market to force things heavily on both sides
OA,
When you say there is an uptick in correlation are you determining that buy seeing stocks move together or do you have an instrument or specific symbol you look at?
Yeah, that’s what correlation is…when stocks move together as opposed to independently. Like yesterday. I do have a correlation index also…but I prefer observing on my own.
That’s what I want to know. What’s your index? Or if you don’t want to make it public, let us know in AHWOA.
Those of you who follow stochastics.. SPY and XLF weekly readying to turnover. IBB weekly turning up from bottom.
It’s pointing straight up? How is that “ready?”
Oa, you still like FSLR, or time to bail?
My calls sank, my stock is fine.
Do you hang onto your calls?
I have what is left of them, yes.
SPY & XLF 3 month weekly (14,3) are almost touching at parallel on my chart. Maybe you are using different settings.
your $ZYNE today…
TSLA is a monster.
This $RLYP is going to go soon I can feel it.
the solar’s are setting up to be the next big long term holds. No positions yet but I like JASO and TSL. I’ll take the other side of the CMG trade and short it if it breaks and closes below 460.
Solars are a buy this year, I agree.
why those in particular?
Constructive close in oil futs if yer bullish which I am at the moment.
Anecdotal take on the economy….just receive an application to fund a Cessna Citation. Customer is bankable and wants to maximize Section 179 deduction this year instead of paying cash after the sale of his older jet to goes thru. Says he can spend $2MM a lot better than Uncle Sam. These are the kind of spending decisions businesses must contend with for the next four years.
Note to all the doom & gloomers: Nobody finances airplanes in an oncoming recession!!!
Love the CMG Jeff…
Watch BEAV.. nice wedge with daily hammer forming. Like JUNO and NTES here too. Nice risk/reward position in tight wedge.
NTES on the move. Still time to get in.
American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil inventory data
Oil inventory drawdown of 4.3 mln barrels
Cushing build 620K barrels
Gasoline draw 116K bbls
Distillate build 2.7mln bbls
Hat tip: Forex Live. Cushing & Distillates will keep a lid on any significant advance. Hopefully the hedgies will hold their Caribbean oil for another run to 40.
Hey just curious why you like CMG so much ?
Because so many people have an opinion on it. My sentiment methods work well with stocks like that.
Ah I see nice makes sense
Not trying to talk s@&$ at all just curious what you like about it
Jeff – Regarding VSLR…not to hard to see bankruptcy coming. Negative $737 Million in annual Free Cash Flow last year with a whopping $90 Million in cash on hand. Wish I was aggressive in buying puts on this when it came public. The financials were so horrible right from the start.
They sell their products at a negative 100% gross margin. That’s incredible. It’s pretty rare to see such a horrible business / financials.
Your $MTCH has a much higher probability of Ch 11 than $VSLR.
Felt like the same was said about sune way back in the day and now it’s a reality. These solar comps seriously uses funny accounting
You never heard that about $SUNE. You don’t have to lie to kick it dude.
Moved to neutral natgas by selling most of my DGAZ this morning.
The charts suggested that oil could bounce & the API inventory numbers supported it. My first sell in oil would come around 38 40. I bot strategically from 38 down to around 35 .75 using UWTI.
I continue to be short GDX.
Shouldve held those SCTY weeklies I sold yesterday yeesh.. how do you guys know when to hold the winners? Tired of giving back gains so I take em but then they seem to run without me.
GPRO and FB showing life.
Good place to by WETF.. 10 bucks or so is it’s solid floor going back years.
OA, Finally patience pays off. EYES is making it’s move.
Added to CF long term at 29.37. 3rd time was the charm. Now if they would just cancel their inversion deal and all PFE (I own) on me, I’ll be very happy.
“Go” all PFE
TWTR liftoff…meanwhile the Ark is taking on water but the violinists are still playing
Sold all PFE at 32.25. Thx Obama!
I’ll re-buy lower or higher after seeing how it trades around its 200d
Someone give FSLR a kick in the &!$. OA, what’s your stop for this one?
US weekly EIA oil inventories report week ending 1 April 2016
Prior 2299k
Last night’s API -4300k
Cushing 357k vs 0k exp. Prior -272k
Gasoline 1438k vs -1100k exp. Prior -2514k
Distillates 1799k vs -850k exp. Prior -1075k
Refinery utilisation 1.0% vs 0.35% exp. Prior 2.0%
Hat tip Forex Live
Me: Production Lwr 48 was down, Imports down. Off shore Caribbean oil holders can control what I see as a 35 – 45 range for the Spring.
40 dollar oil by next Tuesday morning is well within reach.
https://vine.co/v/eDUnil7dVEW
$CMG is boring, anyone holding? I got in before close yesterday.
Love him or hate him, Martin Armstrong is one of my influences. Primarily why I bot this recent dip aggressively in oil.
“BTW: Oil inventories reached an 86-year high this year and will now begin to decline.”
I’m up 2% today.
Sold $VRX April 30 calls for ~500%, better to be lucky than good.
Added to TWTR April 16 calls
$CMG weeklies here. Everything about it seemed uncomfortable so it’s getting filed as a #CostanzaTrade.
Added to HABT a little.
92.3% gains on FEYE Apr 08 2016 17.5 Call, opened yesterday; closed today around 1 ET. Thanks for that tip.