On a monthly basis, I try to have one core narrative or belief to focus my efforts on. Here’s my last few months of core blog discussions…
Short Gold (full position completed 9/5) – “many trade gold… few understand it” – most insulting comment I received in response to that idea BTW. Check
Semiconductors set to BTFO (8/21) – Check
China Stocks (many trades through July) – Check
My biggest prediction to buy Trump/Materials/Inflation trade after Q1 Beat down back in May looking amazing as well. Check
I’ve been quiet lately because I am thinking. Participation is up, the excitement in the market is on the uptick, and I still believe the case for a fast move up exists. I’m not bearish yet by any means, but I am watching the crowd carefully here.
I missed an opportunity to blog about an energy pain trade about a month ago, so no need to start that discussion this late into the move.
I’m leaning toward my general market theme for October as calling it “Stocktober.” I think there’s a good chance that everything moves higher together, and makes a good move at that.
I’ll discuss this more in the coming days, but I see no separation within the market to look for a micro-situation to focus on. I’d be thinking macro here.If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Insightful commentary that you hear literally nowhere else. Keep it coming.
u nice wit it, thanks for all the help over the years.
Jeff considering oil is in backwardation when do you see the move up really accelerating.
maybe this is really the one where we hit escape Velocity, because I have absolutely zero expectations of a single one of these gains holding tomorrow
I have a strange feeling the next 12 months we will hit Dow 30,000 and then have a wicked crash of 7000-10000 Dow points.
HES +20% THE EASIEST TRADE OF THE YEAR
I would ask you a tons of things , now I have to narrow down a bit .. so just 1 question : do you think the trend is kept (up) by the feds .. or there is some bigger mix of players and intelligence that keep it up ?
thx for ur answer
The nature of your question is disbelief. That’s why.
When all the bearshitters were wrong about the market 2 years ago, they all shrugged it off and said “fuck it, markets rigged.”
This was all based on positioning. Everyone was betting global recession. Crowd was wrong, or was already out. Now, if you don’t own, you either chase or find a new career.
thanks oa, appreciate ( very much ) lot of your answers
the extra question would be , when a potential reverse&downturn if any finally take shape , and everyone off guard likely , will the fed slow volatility until the end ( of the world ) .. or is there still a change for a bear market ,ever
OA, you still down with $OPK?
I had stock for a couple weeks a few months back. Nothing on here.
Holy Hell… i just ran through REITs for shorts. Spectacular.
$AMT into strength is an absolutely gorgeous, dream short. I am prepared to lose a lot of money on that one about 2 points higher.
The ones that took that vertical move, which I think make the most compelling shorts from a conceptual standpoint, are:
If you think $QTS gave up it’s long term uptrend, it’s just rallied back to the underside and you could short it right now. But you could move your line down 2 degrees and it looks like a great dip buy, so that one probably shouldn’t even be on the list.
Here’s the link for my tracker. https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=AMT,DEI,CUBE,DCT,FR,NSA,PLD,QTS,REXR,ARE,COR,DLR,PP,AMH,ELS
This is every one that had high potential, either thru hitting that vertical vector that a REIT never should, or a downside volume pocket. They are at various stages of readiness, so I just keep this list and check back every few weeks. This way I can watch how they evolve and different tickers will be ready at different times.
HMNY did its move ,, pretty hot one
Buy any dips. The Fed is still accommodative and there are no signs of an imminent recession. Your Macro thinking works for me.
It’s interesting that for over a year, $AAPL’s “hard deck” has been the 100-day SMA. It’s character has been to rebound off of that area. And here it sits now….
GOOGL – great consolidation for months, barely any weakness compared with other techs on weak tech days and they bought it up like hot cakes yesterday on “Wednesday add to tech positions” day. Looks set to more or less run up the majority of days until earnings. November calls looking tasty. If the share price is ramping up the same time IV is going up with earnings anticipation – a good combination.
Or another way to put it – GOOGL probably shines as the whole market climbs.
I started these yesterday. Agreed.
Trade: Long Oct6 970 calls
Got to think the final flush on MOMO is near.
Friday gamble – roll the dice – long TVIX at 11.55
HaHaHa Calls on.
I was kicking myself for using GLD puts instead of going the leveraged ETF route. But they’re coming back from the dead! Gold looks like hell.
thinking the same on bonds
equal lows on weekly – giant volume pocket below.
Almost too good?
Btfd on BLUE
I miss the days when the blog was hoping.