Lately the trade(s) that we’ve centered conversation around these last couple weeks have been on my call for dollar strength. Here’s where it all started…
End of last year, this was the most crowded trade in financial markets. Long Dollars. If you attended my Boot Camps last year, this was my macro call for 2017…short the dollar. I bought Euros back in December.
The big breakout in the dollar in December quickly lost its momentum and has been spiraling lower all year. Now, it’s become the second most crowded short out there. My play this time around was to short Gold, which conversely got a little heavy last week. Thus far, this has been one of the most memorable bull-traps I’ve watched play out in quite some time.
I also took the opportunity to play a bond short via TBT at $33.23 and bought $WFC calls under $50 as well as some $BOFI calls at $25.
The response to this conversation in each instrument has been pretty solid. While the dollar hasn’t turned much at all yet, I suspect these instrument will catch fire quickly as the boat starts to capsize.
The market has taken on a much healthier rally than most of what we’ve seen this year. It’s been an insane week for the swing trades and with each day that passes, it seems that things look even better. I’m still in awe of how many set-ups are still out there. Slow indices and fast stocks still continues to be the market theme for the foreseeable future.
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a bit early you were, but a profitable trade it will be after the Great Unwinding gets announced by Fed this week.
Nah, right on time.
That comment on 9/7 tho.
Top.
you still in MOMO?
For October, yes. Just added.
I started one this morning…looks like a little too early ouch
Stock has AIDS. Been saying that since last week. Trades like shit.
Speaking of Chinese burritos, Do you still have any YY calls?
Sold on the last run up. Waiting to try again closer to 72.
The pain trade may have been leaving everyone behind to chase.
We’ll see if she clears 80
HES +10% AND COUNTING
$NLNK on watch for a big bounce.
Sorta looks like it’s rounding out a bottom to me.
Is the unwind beginning?
Lucky moment in exit discipline. I had 4 more days with $LVS and the greedy angel on my shoulder said, “hold for more!” but I was at my near term target and sold, even if I missed the last few pennies. Looks like I was only about 10 cents off the high. The most important rule to remember is you never sell the high or buy the low.
Man, I need a bit more of that these days – discipline….both when they go your way and when they don’t. I got shaken out of way too many trades today only to watch everything come back into the close….
ok, i’ll say it DGLD winning,,,where’s that goon at now?.let it ride,nice one
AAPL 105’s sold.
SWKS 103’s sold.
155^
Please fix link to today’s recording.
thanks
So – after OA said a number of days ago he was positioning in DGLD for the longer term – where is the guy who posted for days non stop in the shorter term how DGLD was not a good play?
That tool box technically closed his position, ostensibly for a gain, if you believed anything he said. So I’m hoping he’s gone. But he wasn’t completely wrong. He was just arguing about the 1 day forecast when everyone else was talking about the weather next year.
https://i.imgur.com/D9v3DP1.gifv
I did not see a recording in AHWOA tonight?
EFX gotta love the hate mongerers,,,as the blood is bought,,,long is good
soooo….when is everyone gonna lock in profits on DGLD??
Ever wonder if you’d do better deciding where to buy/sell beforehand? You know…like a plan?
can’t with options. those mofos are like ticking time bombs. Gotta take the money when I can.
If you are itchy to take profits on options because you are scared of riding a big winner – force yourself to take partial profits and accept that the remainder that is left – they will be either zero, hundreds of percents, or thousands of percents. You’d be surprised how many times the last one in the list is hit.
HMNY buy the 5.50 line and long some bitcoin
and EFX of course ,,old lessons learned …market sentiment play
HMNY like a dotard
HES +12%
THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND
Two colossally dreadful names from the past are looking mighty fine: $TWTR and $P is looking a little peppy here.
Going down memory lane with these guys sent me to $GOGO, which would is taking the elevator shaft to interesting prices. A slower decent and I could have put it on the list too.
OA – Would you buy the pullback in LIT / FMC? Or am I way too late on this train?
Bought MOMO OCT. 13 calls
F U Trump!!! You screwing up this market for all!
short dollar trade highest since 2014…hmmm…
HES +15.5% AND COUNTING…
What? Who?
Trying long side of $tsla retest. Taking a careful look at $hubs retest.
Picked up some $tsla calls for next Fri expiry…I like $hubs retest as well, just debating how far out to go. $tsla px action today looked encouraging..definitely finding support into balance
I was shopping monthly charts today, and found a bunch of great ones:
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&t=XON,SNH,WDR,MPLX,ESRX,CCJ,TRCO,JBLU,AMAG
$XON is my favorite long, along with $WDR. Looks like $XON volatility just hit an all time low, or close to it.
And I LOVE this $TTC short. The problem is you have to buy all the way out to December to catch their next earnings, so I’m going to ruminate on it.
XON….-23%….YTD
where do you people find this shit
It’s a good thing I didn’t buy it January 1, then.
get yer ELF on,,,book that HMNY
where is everyone lately??
I miss your daily blogging OA
It’s true. But if you only speak when you have something interesting and meaningful to say, your voice will be missed when it’s silent