I’m convinced that worst case scenario is still up from here. Rally into Fed, rally after Fed. Bears pipe down a bit, especially those shorting every uptick of this move, and you drag the cash hoarders back in at some terrible prices.
Fed funds say the hike is most likely, and the market has had time to adjust accordingly. I prefer this scenario at this point over a non-raise. Especially looking down the road.
I’m not chasing anything up here, but am content to keep day trading for now. Looking for individual stocks that have been non-responsive lately, like $TWTR was coming into today.
OA
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Feye
Agreed. Dumb money sentiment is just too bearish here for that to work out. Only caveat is that I think it might work out with a temporary move down to embolden shorts and scare “new bulls” before another move up. I’m looking for a lower high around 2040 later this month or in October.
By the way, another thing weighing heavily in my opinion is what appears to me to be a bearish USD/JPY chart. OA, you have a a different read on the yen, right?
I do, have had a bullish opinion on this one since last year.
EXPE, WMB, ITCI, GPRO all had some nice moves today.
I think today’s partnership with Bloomberg really highlights the significance of the data on Twitter.
OA, looks to me, in 5years chart, 2011 and 2015 look similar. RSI also similar) So I am thinking to see another leg down to Oct. then rally hard. Which will give us more chance to buy low, so I like the scenario. What do you think?
Sounds like what I referenced back here:
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2015/08/25/this-evening-in-a-nutshell/
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2015/08/24/testing-pressures-from-the-open/
We’ve been comparing action to these dates in AHWOA since late August. Worth watching.
Thanks! We will see.
How convenient it would be to be let back on at the lows though?
I know. Still I can not see strait rally from here. ( till it happen, of course ) That’s too easy also.
Are you invested from last month, or waiting for lows first? Or heavy cash?
It really does seem like people have been trained from 2010, 2011, and 2012 that the lows will be undercut and to wait for it. Then last year threw everything off… Now when the “V” reversal didn’t happen, it became automatic thought process. Can’t help but question the obvious here.
RIP PAT
Yeah, I felt maybe that was a bad title. All respect.
It is an excellent title, he would be proud.
“Nobody puts Baby in the corner”
Great read on things during this mess OA.
The whole idea behind ZIRP was to increase workforce participation. The Fed said for years that unemployment below 6 would trigger a rate increase.
So either the Fed is lying or the real rate of unemployment is >6%, which means they are double liars.
Anybody looking at playing some Solar names into next week? $SUNE and $CSIQ look pretty interesting here.
Also $SHLD has a really nice uptrend going during this whole mess.
Pull way way out and check out sune & spwr, total dopeness.
I agree completely long-term…. Was looking at more of a weekly swing. $CSIQ rejected being under $20 pretty hard last time, and looks like it might want to reject it again. $SUNE definitely looks like sellers are tired and some Discouragement going on.
OA, all I have are long term investment port, so I didn’t do at all since last month.
I learned from the past I am not good at trading volatile market, then stayed out this time. Just waiting to add at low/lower, which might never come.
kevin, lower will come, then a bounce, then lower again, then a bounce, then lower again, until around 950 on the S&P.
We’ve topped for a year, risk appetites are on the slide, and big money has been selling since March.
Time too hedge or get out.
Good luck.
To, not too. Sigh.
Its starting to go from quiet to participation again. Seeing many people who were waiting for the breakdown or who were mysteriously quiet since panic monday coming out of the woodwork. I think we go higher and then retest this balance. I think we get one move that gets these people stepping in out before we complete the reversal.
Anyways, lots of opportunity. I think it is time I open a futures account. I am just worried I will fat finger on my cellphone a futures trade without realizing it which would be bad bad bad.
I run screeners and the majority of stocks I end up liking are biotech. Kind of nuts. I don’t like oversizing as much in these as stock positions because the binary event risk. But wow, there is a lot out there.
Jeff did you dip buy twtr? I added a little
No, never got it
sold 30% of my XIV up 25% since entry.
OA – are you taking any futures positions heading into FOMC?
After, yes. I’ll fade the first move.
nicely played. wish i didn’t play it with options. made the right play but volatility crushed me
Sorry man, been saying to avoid those for a bit. $VIX has been steady north of $20.
Margined to the gills in FIT…fuck it