I love this set-up. Think about it, if you didn’t participate at the lows, you’re on the pucker bus. If the market were sitting at its lows, you’d care less about being mostly in cash. However, the higher this goes, the more anxiety takes over.
Again, if we get a little squeezy here, smile and nod. Also, take this into consideration…as I’ve been talking of this for about 2 years now:
- In 1998 (my current analogue), the market had a 3 day nose dive worth 11.5% ($INDU) on August 27th, 28th, 31st (Thursday, Friday, and Grey Monday was 6.9% of the decline).
- In 2015, the market had a 3 day nose dive worth 11.4% on August 20th, 21st, and 24th (Thursday, Friday, and Grey Monday, which was 6.6% of the decline).
- In 1998, we rallied off the lows for 15 days before making a sharp break higher on the 16th day, worth 3.3%. We rejected the following day, consolidated for the next three days, then made a move back down to the lows. THE SIXTEENTH DAY WAS 9/23.
- In 2015, we rallied off the lows for 15 days heading into an important announcement. We’ll see what the outcome happens to be.
Conversely, 1998 triggered a Dow theory sell signal with a similar non-confirmation in the transportation index, similar to the way it has here in 2015. You’ve seen my charts in the recent past about the scary similarities with Oil, Gold, Dollar, Yen, VIX and Emerging Markets.
As I mentioned, the pain trade here is up. Today’s move will pop folks in at awful prices, and will trigger some short covering. Play it at your discretion, but nearly all the models we’ve run in After Hours with Option Addict suggest a move lower a week from now is highly likely.
BTW – Quit looking at my paper motherfucker. Do your own homework.
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No move, too much uncertainty for 25 measly basis points one way or the other.
Like any biotechs here?
I just sold ADXS yesterday and bought ADRO and SGMO. I want some XENE.
wow awesome call with ADXS, I’ll start watching the others. Think I’m going t0 hold my December CLVS calls through the fed. Fell in love with the biotech lotto lol
Fucking awesome calls this whole time Jeff!!! Really no other way to describe it…
Thanks. Lot of respect for your work as well.
Lol at all the loudmouths saying rate hike guaranteed
Your homework is real good though OA 😉
Those that need to copy need to sit at another table man. Flattered, but fuck them.
Hat tip.
Dow 40… lol
Would like to know what prices big name stocks are going to get pegged to tomorrow
Closed VWO short position for a loss and picked up some calls. No rate hike caught me off guard.
ok, very stupid of me to buy options. didn’t know there was that much volatility baked in with the FOMC
that mindset kept me out of going all-in FIT calls instead of margining up with shares. really depends on trajectory of stock
Rate unchanged = volatility continue
Still weak economy = depressing
I would rather take a step rate hike.
Now I see lower price toward Oct.
You nailed all of this Jeff. Chasing over the next few days is probably not a great idea.
I’m still waiting for our OMFG moment.
In one trade position, SPLK. So annoyed when one of my favourite ideas (SHOP) blasts off without me. It’s happened before and it’ll happen again. Superlative analysis on the markets Jeff.
That stung. Oh well.
Sentiment seems a little bit bullish out there on my feed today. This is the 3rd day of this move. Buying the index up here would be silly imo. Definitely think another pullback to support is coming. I don’t think we make it much beyond 2025, with out pulling back. Even if we keep ripping, the best news is going to be the VIX dieing to get the amble environment to go long premium again. Just my humble opinion.
BOOM! There’s our OMFG moment.
SVXY for the win. Have been buying in over the last 3 weeks. This is easily my biggest position ever and SO FAR my best call ever.
Now that they didn’t raise rates because they can’t we can resume them jawboning about raising rates….
Bought some SINA here…
I have a good friend that is possibly the worst trader I’ve ever seen. He bought QCOM at the peak…literally within a week…in 2000. He got out of stocks in 2009. He bought biotechs 2 months ago. I told him to be cautious about biotechs when he was buying.
Anyway, he just said, “BIS – starting to look good – I’m pounding it at 24”
Not sure exactly how to read into this. Perhaps either we never get there….thinking more about this…
Started counting my money at $108.50 on the QQQ’s… and punished. Now I have to hold these damn QQQ’s until tomorrow. Looking for $109 or slightly better.
Genius.
Sounds like a plan. Thanks OA !